Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

U.S. Births Hit A 43-Year Low, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that there were only 3,591,000 births in the United States in 2023, according to new data from National Center for Health Statistics. This is the fewest U.S. births since 1979, when the U.S. population was 225.1 million compared to 340 million in 2023. Births diminished because fertility rates declined significantly among women in their teens and twenties.

The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. Had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2023, there would have been 10.6 million more births in the last 16 years.

A critical long-term …

Population Gains Continue In New Hampshire, But The Pace Varies, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population reached 1,402,054 on July 1, 2023, an increase of 24,500 residents since April 1, 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates. New Hampshire gained 3,100 residents last year compared to 11,500 and 8,800 in the two preceding years, respectively. The state gained population even though it had 6,600 more deaths than births in the past three years because nearly 31,000 more people moved to the state than left it.

All ten of New Hampshire’s counties gained population between 2020 and 2023, compared to 52 percent of all …

Large Pool Of New Voters Could Add Volatility To New Hampshire Primary, Kenneth M. Johnson, Andrew Smith, Dante Scala

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Andrew Smith, and Dante Scala note a greater likelihood of volatility in the New Hampshire primary because there will be many new faces among the voters who flock to the polls on January 23. The New Hampshire electorate has experienced significant turnover since the 2020 primary. More than one-fifth of New Hampshire’s potential primary voters this year are new because in 2020 they were not old enough to vote or resided somewhere else. The ideology and political party allegiances of these young people and new migrants differ significantly from those of longtime residents. In …

Latest Data Show All New England States Gain Population, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that population gains were widespread in New England last year, according to new Census Bureau estimates. All six states gained population for the first time since before the pandemic. New Hampshire and Maine continued to gain population, just as they have in each of the last four years. In contrast, Massachusetts and Rhode Island gained population last year after several years of population decline. Vermont and Connecticut also continued to add population.

Most of New England’s population increase came from migration, because deaths continue to exceed births in four of the …

More U.S. Women Of Childbearing Age, But Fewer Have Given Birth, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, in 2022, there were 21.9 million women aged 20–39 who had not given birth in the United States. This is 4.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than would have been expected given fertility patterns prior to the Great Recession. In 2022, there were 9 percent more women 20 to 39 than in 2006, but the share who had never had a child was up by 37 percent.

The cumulative result of fewer women having children and diminishing fertility levels was 9.6 million fewer U.S. births between 2008 and …

Recent Demographic Trends Have Implications For Rural Health Care, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports nonmetropolitan (rural) America gained population between April of 2020 and July of 2022. In the preceding decade, rural areas lost population, both because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because births just minimally exceeded deaths. In contrast, the recent, modest rural population increase occurred because a significant net migration gain more than offset the growing excess of deaths over births fostered by the pandemic. That rural migration was strong enough to produce population growth is especially surprising given that deaths outnumbered births—in part due to the pandemic—in 85 …

Migration Sustains New Hampshire’S Population Gain: Examining The Origins Of Recent Migrants, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population continued to grow in 2021 and 2022 because a migration gain of 18,300 was enough to offset the excess of deaths over births. More people died (28,700) than were born (24,900) in New Hampshire in the past two years. Covid certainly contributed to this loss, but annual deaths already exceeded births in the state for several years before the pandemic.

Recently released Census data underscore the mobility of New Hampshire’s population and provide insights into the origin of the migrants to the state. Only 41 percent of the …

Three Years Of Record High Mortality And Low Fertility Leave Many States With More Deaths Than Births, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that with Covid-induced mortality at record highs and continuing low fertility during the past three years, U.S. births exceeded deaths by the smallest margin in more than a century. Such widespread natural decline is unprecedented. At least 22 states had a natural decline in each of the three pandemic years. Prior to the pandemic, the most states with more deaths than births in a year was 5 in 2019. There will be fewer states with more deaths than births in 2023 if the recent reductions in Covid deaths persist. But many …

U.S. Births Remain Near 40-Year Low For Third Consecutive Year, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that recent National Center for Health Statistics birth data indicate there were only 3,661,000 births in 2022, compared to 3,664,000 in 2021, and just 3,614,000 in 2020. These three birth cohorts are the smallest in 40 years and continue a birth decline that began in the era of the Great Recession. The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. Had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2022, there would have been 9.6 million more births in the last 15 years. A critical long-term question is: how many of these …

Retaining Residents Is Important To New Hampshire's Future: Why Do People Stay?, Kristine Bundschuh, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

A key factor impacting New Hampshire’s demographic and economic success is retaining and growing its population. What motivates people to move to New Hampshire is important to the state’s future and garners considerable policy attention. Much less consideration is given to retaining current residents. Yet on average, nearly 1.3 million New Hampshire residents do not migrate into or out of the state in a given year. Understanding why those residents stay in New Hampshire can be an important element of the state’s comprehensive development strategy.

In this brief, authors Kristine Bundschuh and Kenneth Johnson discuss the results of NH Granite …

Population Gains Widespread In New Hampshire Counties Due To Migration, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 17,700 to 1,395,000 between April 2020, when the 2020 Census was conducted, and July 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. These population gains were widespread, occurring in each of the state’s ten counties despite deaths exceeding births in nine of the ten counties. The entire population gain accrued because 21,600 more people moved to the state than left it. The data underscore the continuing importance of migration to the state’s future. Such migration gains result both from attracting migrants to the state …

New Census Data Reflect The Continuing Impact Of Covid On U.S. Demographic Trends, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, according to recent Census Bureau estimates, the U.S. population has grown at the slowest rate in history in the past two years due to the impact of Covid. Deaths exceeded births in 75 percent of all U.S. counties, far more than at any point in the past. Most of the modest population gain was due to migration, and its extent varied along the rural-urban continuum. Looking ahead, the size and distribution of future population gains remain uncertain. As the impact of the pandemic wanes, the excess of births over deaths is …

The Recent U.S. Population Growth Rate Increased From Last Year's Record Low, But Remains Below Historical Levels, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the U.S. population grew by just 1,256,000 between July of 2021 and July of 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. This was an increase from the record low growth of the preceding year, but it remains well below historical rates. There were just 245,000 more births than deaths in the past year, an increase from the 144,000 in the previous year, but still the second smallest natural gain in 80 years. Deaths reached a record high of 3,443,000 last year, 20 percent more than three years ago. In …

Migration Continues To Fuel New Hampshire's Population Gain, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 7,700 (0.55 percent) to 1,395,000 between July of 2021 and July of 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. New Hampshire’s population gain was the second largest in New England. The population gain was entirely due to migration. In all, 10,200 more people moved into New Hampshire than left between July of 2021 and July of 2022. Nearly 62 percent of this migration gain was because more people moved here from other states than left, but the state also gained from immigration. …

Recent Data Suggest Rural America Is Growing Again After A Decade Of Population Loss, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that after a decade of population loss, rural America gained population between 2020 and 2021 because migration gains offset a growing excess of deaths over births due to COVID-19. Between 2010 and 2020, nonmetropolitan (rural) America lost population for the first time in history because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because the excess of births over deaths dwindled. Yet, the latest Census Bureau population estimates document renewed population gains in nonmetropolitan America between April 2020 and July 2021. In fact, the rural population gain exceeded that in …

U.S. Fertility Up Slightly, But 8.6 Million Fewer Births Long Term, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that National Center for Health Statistics data for 2021 show a slight increase in births, rising 1.5 percent from the 2020 level which was a 40-year low. Even with the uptick, the 3,659,000 births in 2021 were the third fewest in 40 years. There is little to suggest a substantial increase in fertility rates in the short term, though preliminary data suggest that births in the first three months of 2022 were higher than in early 2021 when COVID first impacted births.

Contemporary trends continue a birth decline that began …

Growing Racial Diversity In Rural America: Results From The 2020 Census, Kenneth M. Johnson, Daniel Lichter

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter report that although population declines were widespread between 2010 and 2020, rural America became more racially and ethnically diverse. In part, the recent uptick in racial diversity in rural America is a consequence of White population decline.

Rural America remains predominately non-Hispanic White with 35 million White residents constituting 76 percent of the rural population according to the 2020 Census. This represents a decline from 79.8 percent in 2010. The number of rural residents who are members of a racial or ethnic minority increased to 11 million between 2010 and 2020, …

More Coffins Than Cradles In 2,300 U.S. Counties: Covid's Grim Impact, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that COVID’s impact is reflected in the sharp rise in U.S. deaths, reaching 3,434,000 between July 2020 and July 2021. This is a record high and 20 percent more than two years ago before the COVID pandemic. Births diminished to just 3,582,000, the fewest since 1979. The primary driver of U.S. population growth has long been the substantial surplus of births over deaths. This surplus has now dwindled to just 148,000, compared to 923,000 two years ago—an 84 percent decline. With immigration also at a low ebb, the population grew by …

Rural America Lost Population Over The Past Decade For The First Time In History, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson examines rural demographic trends between 2010 and 2020 using data from the 2020 Census. The economic turbulence beginning with the Great Recession and continuing through the next decade had a significant demographic impact on rural America. Between 2010 and 2020 rural population loss was widespread, with more than two-thirds of all nonmetropolitan counties losing population. With fewer births, more deaths, and more people leaving than moving in, rural America experienced an overall population loss for the first time in history. Population losses were greatest in remote rural counties, but even in rural …

Smallest U.S. Population Growth In History: More Deaths, Fewer Births, And Less Immigration, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the U.S. population grew by just 393,000 between July of 2020 and July of 2021 according to new Census Bureau estimates—the lowest rate of annual population gain in history and the smallest numeric gain in more than 100 years. Diminished immigration from abroad contributed, but the driver of this minimal population gain was that there were only 148,000 more births than deaths. This is the smallest natural gain in more than 80 years. COVID-19 played a central role in this small population gain. In addition to 475,000 deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 …

New Census Reflects Growing U.S. Population Diversity, With Children In The Forefront, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the U.S. population grew by a modest 7.4 percent during the past decade to 331.4 million in April 2020. Yet, there was significant variation in the rate and direction of population change among the numerous racial and Hispanic origin groups that together represent the U.S. population. The net result was a significant increase in racial diversity over the course of the decade, both in the population as a whole, and children in particular. Diversity was geographically widespread and increased in every region of the country.

The nation’s growing racial-ethnic diversity increases the …

Inequities In Job Recovery During The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Year Later, Rogelio Saenz, Corey Sparks, Asiya Validova

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz, Corey Sparks, and Asiya Validova report that in April 2020, after the first two months of significant spread of COVID-19 in the United States, nearly 25 million fewer people had a job. In June 2021, there were still 5.9 million fewer people employed, representing a drop of 3.7 percent in workers since before COVID. Workers of color, women, and those with lower levels of education have consistently had the highest unemployment rates, a trend that persisted through June 2021.

The recovery of the workforce has not been equal, with dramatic differences based on race/ethnicity, …

Modest Population Gains, But Growing Diversity In New Hampshire With Children In The Vanguard, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population grew by a modest 4.6 percent during the past decade to 1,377,500 in April 2020. In contrast, the number of minority residents, defined as those who were other than non-Hispanic Whites, increased by 74.4 percent to 176,900 in 2020. Minority residents now represent 12.8 percent of the state’s population compared to 7.5 percent (101,400) in 2010. Though the minority population grew, a substantial majority of the state’s population remains non-Hispanic White.

Hispanics are the largest minority population in New Hampshire with 59,500 residents, or 4.3 percent of the population. …

New Census Data Reveal Modest Population Growth In New Hampshire Over The Past Decade, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this fact sheet, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population reached 1,377,529 on April 1, 2020, an increase of 61,000 residents (4.6 percent) since April 1, 2010 according to new 2020 Census data. This increase is smaller than the state’s population gain of 6.5 percent between 2000 and 2010.

New Hampshire’s population grew both because more migrants moved to the state than left and because births exceeded deaths. Migration was the most important source of the state’s population increase, accounting for 89 percent of the population gain. Over the decade, New Hampshire had a net migration gain of …

7.6 Million Fewer Births And Still Counting, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that new data for 2020 show a 3.8 percent decline in births since 2019 and the fewest since 1979. There were 16.5 percent fewer births last year than in 2007, just before the Great Recession began to influence births. The cumulative effect of this sustained decline in births means over 7.6 million fewer babies were born in the last 13 years than might have been expected. This is unlikely to change in the short-term because of the pandemic’s adverse impact on fertility.

A critical long-term question is: how many births are being …

Deaths Exceeded Births In A Record Number Of States In 2020, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2020, the impact of COVID-19 contributed to a record 3,376,000 deaths in the United States: 18 percent more than in 2019. In addition, births diminished by 4 percent to 3,605,000 in 2020. The surplus of births over deaths added just 229,000 to the population in 2020 compared to 892,000 in 2019: a decline of 74 percent.

This decline coupled with diminished immigration produced the United States’ smallest annual population gain in at least 100 years. Deaths exceeded births in 25 states in 2020, far more than in any previous year.

2020 Census Reflects Lagging U.S. Population Growth, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the first data from the 2020 Census reveal a significant slowdown in U.S. population growth. Population change varied considerably from state to state. Fourteen states had population gains exceeding 10 percent, 20 had population gains of less than 5 percent, and 3 lost population. States’ population changes were influenced both by migration and the balance between births and deaths.

Looking ahead, the short-term prospects for substantial population increase appear limited. Even aside from the COVID-19-related deaths following the April 2020 Census, mortality is likely to rise among an aging U.S. population and …

New Hampshire's Estimated Population Gain Is The Largest In New England, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 5,500 to 1,366,000 between July of 2019 and July of 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates. This was the largest population percentage increase in New England. In contrast, the region as a whole and four of its six states lost population between July 2019 and July 2020, due in part to mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Migration Gains To New Hampshire From Other U.S. States Are Growing, With The Largest Gains Among Young Adults, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses how New Hampshire is now gaining significantly more migrants from other U.S. destinations than earlier in the decade. The largest gains are among young adults.

Biden's Victory Due To Increased Support Along The Entire Rural-Urban Continuum, Kenneth M. Johnson, Dante Scala

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Joseph Biden won the 2020 presidential election because Democratic support increased across the entire rural–urban continuum. The incremental gains at each point along the continuum were modest, but in a tightly contested election small changes in the vote matter.

In this brief, Carsey School senior demographer Ken Johnson and Carsey fellow Dante Scala conclude that voting trends in rural and urban America reflect a continuum rather than a dichotomy. At one pole of the continuum are large, densely settled urban cores, where Democrats have consistently been the most successful. At the other end are remote rural counties far from a …