Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

New Hampshire's Estimated Population Gain Is The Largest In New England, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 5,500 to 1,366,000 between July of 2019 and July of 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates. This was the largest population percentage increase in New England. In contrast, the region as a whole and four of its six states lost population between July 2019 and July 2020, due in part to mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Migration Gains To New Hampshire From Other U.S. States Are Growing, With The Largest Gains Among Young Adults, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses how New Hampshire is now gaining significantly more migrants from other U.S. destinations than earlier in the decade. The largest gains are among young adults.

Biden's Victory Due To Increased Support Along The Entire Rural-Urban Continuum, Kenneth M. Johnson, Dante Scala

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Joseph Biden won the 2020 presidential election because Democratic support increased across the entire rural–urban continuum. The incremental gains at each point along the continuum were modest, but in a tightly contested election small changes in the vote matter.

In this brief, Carsey School senior demographer Ken Johnson and Carsey fellow Dante Scala conclude that voting trends in rural and urban America reflect a continuum rather than a dichotomy. At one pole of the continuum are large, densely settled urban cores, where Democrats have consistently been the most successful. At the other end are remote rural counties far from a …

Voting And Attitudes Along The Red Rural–Blue Urban Continuum, Kenneth M. Johnson, Dante Scala

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Political commentary often divides the nation into two partisan zones, urban and rural, but new analysis demonstrates that the rural–urban gradient is a continuum, not a dichotomy. In this study of the 2018 congressional midterms, authors Kenneth Johnson and Dante Scala confirm their earlier analysis of the 2016 presidential election and demonstrate how voting patterns and political attitudes vary across the spectrum of urban and rural areas.

Is Rural America Failing Or Succeeding? Maybe Both, Kenneth M. Johnson, Daniel T. Lichter

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter summarize their peer reviewed article in Demography that provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and urban growth.

Johnson and Lichter report that since 1970, 25 percent of counties containing 22 percent of the current U.S. population have been reclassified from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status because of population and economic growth. All of the growth in the share of the population that lives in metropolitan counties is due to nonmetropolitan counties transforming into metropolitan counties. This transfer of population and territory through reclassification calls into question the …

Health Conditions And An Older Population Increase Covid-19 Risks In Rural America, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson discusses the likely influence that the age structure and the incidence of pre-existing health conditions have on the risks of those exposed to COVID-19 in rural and urban counties in the United States.

Johnson reports that the rural population is at higher risk from COVID-19 because it is older and has higher rates of pre-existing health conditions. Rural areas currently have lower COVID-19 case and death rates, but these rates are rising faster than in urban areas. Nearly 32 percent of the rural counties at high risk from COVID-19 still have relatively few cases …

The Inequities Of Job Loss And Recovery Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic, Rogelio Saenz, Corey Sparks

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this policy brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz and Corey Sparks discuss the wide variations in unemployment and the level of job loss during the COVID-19 pandemic across the nation’s demographic groups that have historically suffered disparities in the workforce, including persons of color, women, and immigrants. It is particularly unfortunate that the calamity of the pandemic comes on the heels of major improvements in job prospects that these groups made over the last decade, as the workforce emerged from the Great Recession.

The benefits associated with the CARES Act of March 2020 expired in July, leaving tens of millions of …

Why People Move To And Stay In New Hampshire, Kenneth M. Johnson, Kristine Bundschuh

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

Migration is important to New Hampshire’s demographic future. Traditionally, the state has grown both because of migration into it and because of the surplus of births over deaths. However, recently all of New Hampshire’s population growth has been due to migration.

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Kristine Bundschuh analyze data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll to examine the characteristics of two groups of current New Hampshire residents—recent migrants and established residents—to understand why people move to and choose to stay in the state. Their findings illustrate that migration decisions are influenced by …

U.S. Population Growth Slows, But Diversity Grows, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2019 the U.S. population grew at the lowest rate in a century because there were fewer births, more deaths, and less immigration. Fertility rates diminished regardless of race or Hispanic origin and immigration declines were also widespread. As a result, the growth rate of both the minority and non-Hispanic White population diminished. Yet, the racial diversity of the population continued to grow, according to Census Bureau estimates released on June 25, 2020.

This increasing diversity reflects two important demographic trends. The minority population is growing, and the non-Hispanic White population is …

U.S. Fertility Rates And Births Continue To Diminish, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses new National Center for Health Statistics data for 2019 that show the lowest fertility rates on record and just 3,746,000 births—the fewest since 1985. There were 570,000 fewer births in 2019 than in 2007, just before the Great Recession began to influence births. As fertility rates begin to be impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and its economic aftermath, a critical question is: how many of these births will be delayed, and how many will be foregone entirely? This has implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force.

An Older Population Increases Estimated Covid-19 Death Rates In Rural America, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson estimates the influence that the local age structure has on coronavirus death rates among those exposed to it in rural and urban counties in the United States. He reports that the older age structure of rural America increases its vulnerability to the coronavirus. Though rural exposure to the virus was limited early in the pandemic, it is now spreading rapidly there. Rural America’s older age structure increases expected mortality rates there, but other factors also influence its vulnerability to the virus. The fates of rural and urban America are inextricably intertwined, so responding to …

Deaths Exceeded Births In Nearly Half Of U.S. Counties Last Year, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that even before the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, deaths were at a record high in the United States last year, but there were the fewest births since 1986. Between July 2018 and July 2019, the surplus of births over deaths was the least in more than 50 years. As a result, more people died than were born in 46 percent of U.S. counties last year. Because of this smaller surplus of births over deaths and diminished immigration, the U.S. population grew by just 0.48 percent last year—the lowest population growth rate …

Distribution Of New Hampshire’S Older Population Complicates Health Care Delivery During Coronavirus Epidemic, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses the uneven spatial distribution of New Hampshire’s older population and suggests that it may complicate the delivery of health care to the state’s population during the COVID-19 epidemic. Older adults are much more likely to experience serious health consequences as a result of exposure to COVID-19. Thus, access to health care is of critical importance for older adults. Though most older adults reside in southern New Hampshire, seniors make up a larger proportion of the population in sparsely settled northern New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Population Grew Last Year, Even Though Deaths Exceeded Births, Kenneth M. Johnson

The Carsey School of Public Policy at the Scholars' Repository

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports the population of New Hampshire grew by 6,200 to 1,360,000 between July of 2018 and July of 2019 according to new Census Bureau estimates. The state’s population increased even though there were fewer births than deaths in the state last year. Migration from other U.S. destinations accounted for most of the state’s population gain. In a state where deaths now exceed births, migration is critical to New Hampshire’s future.