Models and Methods Commons^™

Religion And Regionalism: Congregants, Culture And City-County Consolidation In Louisville, Kentucky, Joshua D. Ambrosius

Political Science Faculty Publications

Literature on religious involvement in public affairs typically examines the national scene, particularly public opinion and political behavior in presidential elections. Few scholars examine religious actors in urban politics and policymaking. Those who do study local politics emphasize morality policy and ignore issues of metropolitan governance and institutional design, central concerns of the urban politics field. This dissertation fills that gap by studying Louisville, Kentucky, site of the first large-scale city-county consolidation since 1969. I ask: does religion affect how people vote in a consolidation referendum and shape their opinions about merged government? I employ a survey instrument (N=807), collected …

War By Government: Which Systems Are Most Likely To Engage In Conflict?, Courtney Lemon

Undergraduate Research Conference

No abstract provided.

Presidential Embodiment Of Soft Power: The Missing Element Of The Current Theory Of Soft Power, Ashley Lauer

Theses & Honors Papers

As a sharp contrast to George Bush, Barack Obama, during his campaign and his first months in office, has received international acclaim and acceptance around the world. Even the vast majority of Europeans, who openly opposed and disliked George Bush, have welcomed Obama enthusiastically. He was even awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2009. Within the first year of his presidential tenure, Barack Obama already appears to have gained back more soft power than George Bush ever had.

Learning Sustainable Development: Chimeneas De La Esperanza, Miriam V. Mollan Gundersen

Social Sciences

Social inequality and environmental degradation are motivating informed young people into action and connecting impoverished regions of the world with students in more developed nations. This Social Sciences senior project is to analyze an alternative development model designed by a group of Californian university students. The project, named Chimeneas de la Esperanza, is designed to help impoverished Nicaraguan women start a ceramics business. The major hurdle of this mission is to establish a market for the ceramics product. Energy efficient ceramic stoves and smoke ventilating chimneys would benefit the community and avoid an impacted crafts market. The project encompasses ideas …

Successful Grassroots Mobilization: Explaining The Victory Of Tom Perriello's 2008 Congressional Election, Brian John Mandeville

Theses & Honors Papers

The 2008 congressional election for the Fifth District of Virginia was unique for many reasons. It is exceptional that a relatively unknown challenger was able to take on an entrenched incumbent and succeed in defeating him, breaking the trend of incumbent victory seen in almost all House of Representative elections. This research demonstrates that the Perriello campaign's ability to create an effective grassroots network was a significant factor in determining the out come of the election. Through a detailed examination of the activities, personnel, and fundraising tactics that Perriello campaign made use of, this research found that Perriello's victory was …

The Blind Leading The Blind: Who Gets Polling Information And Does It Improve Decisions?, Cheryl Boudreau, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

We analyze whether and when polls help citizens to improve their decisions. Specifically, we use experiments to investigate 1) whether and when citizens are willing to obtain polls and 2) whether and when polls help citizens to make better choices than they would have made on their own. We find that citizens are more likely to obtain polls when the decisions they must make are difficult and when they are unsophisticated. Ironically, when the decisions are difficult, the pollees are also uninformed and, therefore, do not provide useful information. We also find that when polls indicate the welfare-improving choice, citizens …

Legislatures, Judges, And Parole Boards: The Allocations Of Discretion Under Determinate Sentencing, Dhammika Dharmapala, Nuno Garoupa, Joanna Shepherd

Faculty Articles

The most significant development in criminal sentencing in recent decades has been the shift from indeterminate to determinate sentencing. Yet no study has systematically explored the factors leading to this shift. In this Article, we provide the first analysis to explain why state legislatures enact reforms that significantly reduce both judges’ and parole boards’ discretion over criminal sentencing. First, we develop a political economy model that explains why legislatures acting in their own self-interest may be motivated to enact these laws. Our model predicts that legislatures are more likely to enact determinate sentencing reforms when there is tension among the …

Did A Switch In Time Save Nine?, Daniel E. Ho, Kevin M. Quinn

Faculty Articles

Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s court-packing plan of 1937 and the “switch in time that saved nine” animate central questions of law, politics, and history. Did Supreme Court Justice Roberts abruptly switch votes in 1937 to avert a showdown with Roosevelt? Scholars disagree vigorously about whether Roberts’s transformation was gradual and anticipated or abrupt and unexpected. Using newly collected data of votes from the 1931–1940 terms, we contribute to the historical understanding of this episode by providing the first quantitative evidence of Roberts’s transformation. Applying modern measurement methods, we show that Roberts shifted sharply to the left in the 1936 term. The …

How Not To Lie With Judicial Votes: Misconceptions, Measurement, And Models, Daniel E. Ho, Kevin M. Quinn

Faculty Articles

In Part I, we describe the formal spatial theory often invoked to justify the statistical approach. While spatial theory has the nice feature of synthesizing theory and empirics, legal scholars may remain skeptical of its strong assumptions. Fortunately, measurement models can be illuminating even if the spatial theory is questionable.

To illustrate this, Part II provides a nontechnical overview of the intuition behind measurement models that take merits votes as an input and return a summary score of Justice-specific behavior as an output. Such scores provide clear and intuitive descriptive summaries of differences in judicial voting.

Confusion abounds, however, and …

Gender, Human Security And The United Nations: Security Language As A Political Framework For Women, Natalie Florea Hudson

Political Science Faculty Publications

This book examines the relationship between women, gender and the international security agenda, exploring the meaning of security in terms of discourse and practice, as well as the larger goals and strategies of the global women's movement.

Today, many complex global problems are being located within the security logic. From the environment to HIV/AIDS, state and non-state actors have made a practice out of securitizing issues that are not conventionally seen as such. As most prominently demonstrated by the UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (2001), activists for women's rights have increasingly framed women's rights and gender inequality as security issues …

We Call Ourselves By Many Names: Storytelling And Inter-Minority Coalition-Building, Celina Su

Publications and Research

Scholars debate whether new immigrants will join minority native-born groups, especially African-Americans, in battling racial disparities, income inequalities, and discrimination in the United States. Although scholars have investigated inter-minority coalition-building in the context of electoral politics, a substantial share of newer immigrant social and political action has not been formalized. Social change organizations play an integral role in less formalized politics. The article draws upon ethnographic data on two case study organizations to investigate how they built coalitions between immigrants and non-immigrants. It pinpoints the ways in which they engaged in storytelling to emphasize multiple identity – namely, how any …

Challenges For Estimating Policy Preferences: Announcing An Open Access Archive Of Political Documents, Kenneth Benoit, Thomas Brauninger, Marc Debus

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

We provide a comparative perspective on the contributions of the special issue with regard to their applied methods and findings. In addition, we discuss problems that arise when using ‘wrong’ or at least ‘incorrect’ versions of election manifestos by presenting replications of estimated policy positions of German parties. We show that the latter can result in biased estimates that may affect the outcome of theoretical models. On the basis of those findings, we present the idea of the open access archive polidoc.net to build up a common database for political texts.

Research On Scf Model Under Financial Crisis : An Integrated Sc Project In China Based On Financing, Rui Liu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

New Eurasian Continental Bridgehead Lianyungang, Qiaoqiao Wu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Analysis On Development Of Empty Container Distribution Center In Shanghai Port, Jieyua Xu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Research On Optimization Of Liner Route Between China To Middle East, Tingyi Chen

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On Value-At-Risk In International Crude Oil Shipping Market, Xiaoyin Cui

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On Brand Strategies Of Cdl Company, Wei Gu

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Research On Risk Evaluation Of Shanghai Lng Import Program, Chao Lin

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

A Study On Empty Container Allocation, Yu Sun

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On The Supply Chain Inventory Management To Gen Garment Co. Ltd, Wei Wang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On Decision-Making On Take-Back Models In Reverse Logistics For End-Of-Life Electronic Products, Yiwei Wang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Feasibility Analysis Of The Third Euro-Asia Continental Bridge, Tongyou Weng

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Researchs On Coal Logistics Center Site Selection In Guizhou Province, Yiye Xiang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On The Establishment Of Food Supply Chain Traceability Systems, Jianmin Zhang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On The Cost Control System Of Sq Corporation, Yang Zhao

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Politics, Policies, And Poverty In Latin America, Jennifer Pribble, Evelyne Huber, John D. Stephens

Political Science Faculty Publications

Why do Latin American countries exhibit stark differences in their ability to protect citizens from falling into poverty? Analysis of poverty levels measured by ECLAC in eighteen countries shows that political factors-including the democratic record, long-term weight of left-of-center parties in the legislature, and investment in human capital-are significant and substantively important determinants of poverty. These findings contribute to the growing literature that emphasizes the importance of regime form, parties, and policies for a variety of outcomes in Latin America, despite the weaknesses of democracy and the pathologies of some parties and party systems in the region.

The Social Evolution Of War And Transformation In Political Organization, Talon J. Powers

Political Science Honors Projects

Until recently, international relations theory has treated the territorial state as a transhistorical constant. The post-positivist turn, however, revives the question of the state’s origins and future sustainability. By drawing together the contributions of historical sociologists and social theorists of war, this thesis provides a model for change in political organization stemming from foundational transformations in warfare. This model considers not only warfighting practices, but the social and broader historical context in which war is embedded. Through analysis of the feudal and modern cases, I demonstrate why warfare is the best lens through which to evaluate change in political organization.

Why Urbanists Need Religion, Joshua D. Ambrosius

Political Science Faculty Publications

This essay summarizes a conference paper presented at the October 2008 Society for the Scientific Study of Religion meeting in Louisville, Kentucky. The paper was reviewed by several leading scholars.

Treating Words As Data With Error: Uncertainty In Text Statements Of Policy Positions, Kenneth Benoit, Michael Laver, Slava Mikhaylov

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Political text offers extraordinary potential as a source of information about the policy positions of political actors. Despite recent advances in computational text analysis, human interpretative coding of text remains an important source of text-based data, ultimately required to validate more automatic techniques. The profession's main source of cross-national, time-series data on party policy positions comes from the human interpretative coding of party manifestos by the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP). Despite widespread use of these data, the uncertainty associated with each point estimate has never been available, undermining the value of the dataset as a scientific resource. We propose a …