Models and Methods Commons^™

Ai And The Music Industry: Its Current Status And A Speculative Projection Of Its Evolutionary Trajectory, Rhett D. Morris, Clayton Rosati, Stefan Fritsch

Honors Projects

Music serves as one of society's biggest cultural outlets, allowing millions to share in what used to be a uniquely human form of expression. The commodification of music has built a huge industry full of companies and platforms that have used technology and property laws to shape music's relationship with the public. This study aims to look into the future to see how AI and its implementation could affect the structure of the music industry. To look into the future, this piece establishes two of the most pressing kinds of AI technology for the music industry and looks to contextualize …

Welcome Tilly Norwood: Forecasting Hollywood’S Ai Policy Futures, Samuel P. Rooker

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

In late 2025, weekly trade publication Variety Magazine reported on the announcement of a new acting talent in Hollywood: Tilly Norwood. Norwood is an industry outsider and the pet project of Eline Van der Velden, who unveiled the actress’ existence to the world at the Zurich Film Festival. The announcement quickly gained media coverage while Van der Velden has since faced cyclical backlash from Hollywood trade unions, which does not seem entirely without reason. Tilly Norwood is a digital persona, a generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) program, designed by Van der Velden’s novel AI talent studio, Xicoia, to become the next …

Complex Systems Mapping Of Fiscal Growth Dynamics At Strategic Maritime Chokepoints Using Time-Series Slopes, Rahul Balamurugan, Preethi Nanjundan, Avichal Sharma

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study examines how maritime and trading states allocate public resources between defence, health, and economic growth around three strategic chokepoints the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal. The analysis extends the classic “guns versus butter” framing by treating defence and health spending as co-evolving components of an interconnected fiscal-growth system. Using World Development Indicators data (1999-2024), trend slopes are estimated for military spending (% of GDP), healthcare spending (% of GDP), and GDP growth (annual %). Two derived indicators are computed, a defence-to-health slope ratio (military slope/health slope) and a fiscal-balance proxy (health slope …

The Expanding Digital Border: Ai, Surveillance, And The Fight For Justice, James Chesser

Immigration and Human Rights Law Review

As artificial intelligence transforms the mechanisms of immigration control, the modern border has become a digital filter—one governed less by geography and more by code. This Article examines the legal, technical, and ethical implications of AI-driven systems now central to global border enforcement, including biometric surveillance, algorithmic risk scoring, and predictive profiling. It explores how states use these technologies not only to manage irregular migration, but to compete for global talent—constructing migration regimes that reward capital and compliance while eroding transparency, due process, and equality.

Through an international and comparative lens, the piece highlights the expansion of algorithmic decision-making across …

Significance, Challenges, And Policy Recommendations For Strengthening Database Development To Support Ai For Science In China, Kaihua Chen, Hongxin Liu, Rui Guo

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

With the rapid emergence of research intelligence driven by big data and artificial intelligence (AI), high-quality, openly shared scientific databases have become a strategic focal point for scientific innovation and enhancing technological competitiveness. Major countries around the world are increasingly recognizing the foundational role of scientific databases in advancing basic research. While continuously strengthening their own scientific data infrastructure through a series of initiatives, they have simultaneously imposed restrictions and suppression on the development of AI technologies in China, including those involving research data. Against this backdrop, building an autonomous and controllable scientific data ecosystem to support research intelligence is …

Data Altruism: Eu Solution And Path Of Localization In China, Teng Wu

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Data altruism transcends the profit-seeking, monopolistic and competitive nature of the market mechanism. It is driven by innovation and encourages data subjects and holders to share information guided by the public interest. As a new type of data application and service model, it aims to achieve a virtuous cycle of the data ecosystem while optimize the utilization of data resources. Tracing back to the source, the theoretical foundation of data altruism from the ethical theory of altruism, and the concept of its budding was supported by the data for good. Analysis shows that the specific scheme of the EU data …

Beyond Discrete Indicators: Modeling Intersectional Flood Vulnerability, Sina Razzaghi Asl, Eric Tate, Christopher T. Emrich, Md Asif Rahman, Kaeleb Royster

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Social vulnerability to flooding is shaped by intersectional social marginalization, yet most quantitative assessments employ indicators of single populations. This study applies spatial machine learning to examine how the intersectional social vulnerability indicators of poverty-race, poverty-housing tenure, and race-housing tenure compare with traditional discrete indicators of single populations in predicting flood exposure in California. Using geographically weighted random forests and partial dependence plots, we model spatial heterogeneity and non-linear relationships between social vulnerability and exposure. We quantified flood exposure using a population-adjusted measure derived from building footprints and modeled 500-year fluvial and pluvial flood hazard. The results reveal distinct explanatory …

Culture Mediates Climate Opinion Change: A System Dynamics Model, Louis (Lou) Gross, Yoon Ah Shin, Sara M. Constantino, Ann Kinzig, Katherine Lacasse, Brian Beckage

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Three Essays In The Economics Of Disagreements: Incentives, Measurement And Persistence, Mustafa W. Alam

All Dissertations

This dissertation presents three chapters that contribute to the study of economic forces shaping disagreements in society.

In Chapter 1, I demonstrate that political polarization can intensify due to innovations in the information market even if a population's ideological distribution is fixed. Viewership-maximizing news firms cater to a diverse audience who assess source accuracy using noisy private signals that vary in precision and ideological bias. If better-informed consumers disproportionately migrate to newer platforms for news (e.g., the Internet), traditional media firms increase news slant to appeal more to less-informed partisans on both sides of the ideological spectrum. This leads to …

Walking On Sunshine: Walkable Cities Affect On The Health And Well-Being Of A Population, Carter J. Barnett

SPARK Symposium Presentations

A simple definition of a city is an organizational unit that consists of a dense population within a specific area. This unit can carry a variety of goods and services, complete with housing, businesses, places of leisure and community. A city provides residents with all three of the aspects to live, work, and play within a set distance. How people get around this area is a vital question considering the large number of people in a relatively small zone. For many metropolitan areas a personal car is how movement between city spaces is carried out, however this can cause air …

Maritime Industry Cybersecurity Threats In 2025: Advanced Persistent Threats (Apts), Hacktivism And Vulnerabilities, Minodora Badea, Olga Bucovetchi, Adrian V. Gheorghe, Mihaela Hnatiuc, Gabriel Raicu

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Background: The maritime industry, vital for global trade, faces escalating cyber threats in 2025. Critical port infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable due to rapid digitalization and the integration of IT and operational technology (OT) systems. Methods: Using 112 incidents from the Maritime Cyber Attack Database (MCAD, 2020-2025), we developed a novel quantitative risk assessment model based on a Threat-Vulnerability-Impact (T-V-I) framework, calibrated with MITRE ATT&CK techniques and validated against historical incidents. Results: Our analysis reveals a 150% rise in incidents, with OT compromise identified as the paramount threat (98/100 risk score). Ports in Poland and Taiwan face the …

Partisan Divides In Environmental Spending Attitudes: A Two-Level Hierarchical Analysis, 1973-2022, Jordan Lipner

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Public attitudes toward environmental spending have become increasingly divided along party lines, with sharp shifts over the past five decades. This thesis updates and expands on Johnson and Schwadel’s 2019 study by applying a two-level hierarchical linear model to General Social Survey data updated to include data from 2015-2022, capturing how political affiliation, education, race, and economic context interact with broader political and economic contexts to shape environmental attitudes over time.
The results show that political affiliation remains the strongest and most reactive predictor of environmental spending attitudes. Republican respondents are significantly more likely to oppose environmental spending, especially under …

Carbon Emission Estimation For Computing Infrastructure: Methods, Progress, And Prospects, Xiaohong Chen, Liaoying Cao, Yangjie Wang, Zhuqian He, Wenzhi Cao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

As a foundational pillar of an increasingly digital and intelligent society, computing infrastructure embodies a dual nature—marked by high energy consumption and potential for emission reduction simultaneously. This duality positions it as a critical domain requiring balance under China’s dual-carbon goals. Nevertheless, there remains no clear consensus on methods for estimating its carbon emissions. Its ambiguity stems from differences in the applicability of assessment methods across various lifecycle stages, as well as a fragmented understanding of its intrinsic emissions and enabling effects on carbon mitigation. This study systematically reviews estimation methodologies from both broad and narrow perspectives, highlighting the heterogeneity …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Information About Historical Emissions Drives The Division Of Climate Change Mitigation Costs, Alessandro Del Ponte, Aidas Masiliūnas, Noah Lim

Political Science Faculty Articles and Research

Despite worsening climate change, the international community still disagrees on how to divide the costs of mitigation between developing countries and developed countries, which emitted the bulk of historical carbon emissions. We study this issue using an economic experiment. Specifically, we test how information about historical emissions influences how much participants pay for climate change mitigation. In a four-player game, participants are assigned to lead two fictional countries as members of either the first or the second generation. The first generation produces wealth at the expense of greater carbon emissions. The second generation inherits their predecessor’s wealth and negotiates how …

Chatgpt As Metamorphosis Designer For The Future Of Artificial Intelligence (Ai): A Conceptual Investigation, Amarjit Kumar Singh (Library Assistant), Dr. Pankaj Mathur (Deputy Librarian)

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

Abstract

Purpose: The purpose of this research paper is to explore ChatGPT’s potential as an innovative designer tool for the future development of artificial intelligence. Specifically, this conceptual investigation aims to analyze ChatGPT’s capabilities as a tool for designing and developing near about human intelligent systems for futuristic used and developed in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Also with the helps of this paper, researchers are analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of ChatGPT as a tool, and identify possible areas for improvement in its development and implementation. This investigation focused on the various features and functions of ChatGPT that …

Using Game Theory To Model Tripolar Deterrence And Escalation Dynamics, Grace Farson

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

The study investigated how game theory can been utilized to model multipolar escalation dynamics between Russia, China, and the United States. In addition, the study focused on analyzing various parameters that affected potential conflict outcomes to further new deterrence thought in a tripolar environment.

A preliminary game theoretic model was created to model and analyze escalation dynamics. The model was built upon framework presented by Zagare and Kilgour in their work ‘Perfect Deterrence’. The model is based on assumptions and rules set prior to game play. The model was then analyzed based upon these assumptions using a form of mathematical …

Assessing Spurious Correlations In Big Search Data, Jesse T. Richman, Ryan J. Roberts

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Big search data offers the opportunity to identify new and potentially real-time measures and predictors of important political, geographic, social, cultural, economic, and epidemiological phenomena, measures that might serve an important role as leading indicators in forecasts and nowcasts. However, it also presents vast new risks that scientists or the public will identify meaningless and totally spurious ‘relationships’ between variables. This study is the first to quantify that risk in the context of search data. We find that spurious correlations arise at exceptionally high frequencies among probability distributions examined for random variables based upon gamma (1, 1) and Gaussian random …

Applying Data Science And Machine Learning To Understand Health Care Transition For Adolescents And Emerging Adults With Special Health Care Needs, Lisamarie Turk

Nursing ETDs

A problem of classification places adolescents and emerging adults with special health care needs among the most at risk for poor or life-threatening health outcomes. This preliminary proof-of-concept study was conducted to determine if phenotypes of health care transition (HCT) for this vulnerable population could be established. Such phenotypes could support development of future studies that require data classifications as input. Mining of electronic health record data and cluster analysis were implemented to identify phenotypes. Subsequently, a machine learning concept model was developed for predicting acute care and medical condition severity. Three clusters were identified and described (Cluster 1, n …

Recommendations For Sustainable Tourism In Patagonia: An Exploratory Analysis Of Sustainable Tourism In Costa Rica, The Nordic Region, And Thailand’S Communities, Julia K. Lowery

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis explores different levels of governance and its role towards actualizing sustainable tourism in Patagonia. With the growing threat of climate change, international destinations such as Patagonia are looking to continue building their tourism industries in a sustainable way. Through analyzing case studies of national governance in Costa Rica, multi-national governance in the Nordic region, and community-based tourism in Thailand, we can better understand how each form of governance has the potential to create a sustainable tourism industry. With this understanding of successful governance in my case studies, as well as understanding the historical and political forces that have …

Constructing Green Gdp Evaluation System By Using Think Tank Double Helix Methodology, Hongbing Wang, Yijun Liu, Dawei Song

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

In the new development stage, taking green GDP as the starting point for the development of green economy, low-carbon economy, and circular economy and an important indicator to measure high-quality development, sustainable development, and modernization is an effective way to ensure the construction of "beautiful China", basically realize socialist modernization and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. This study uses the double helix theory of think tank to innovate a new paradigm of green GDP research and broaden the research path of GDP evaluation system. In terms of epistemology, the think tank double helix methodology provides a new systematic perspective …

Thoughts On Data-Driven Discursive Logic And Triangulation Of Think Tank, Jianjun Sun, Lei Pei, Yaxue Ma, Yang Li

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

The rapid accumulation of data resources and the development of analysis technologies have expanded the scope of think tank research, and prompted think tanks to pay more attention to data intelligence. Meanwhile, higher requirements are put forward on the quality and innovation of the think tank. Facing the development needs of think tanks, i.e., modernization, innovation, and conscientization, this paper demonstrates the change of data-driven think tank researches from the perspective of the information chain. The paper analyzes the urgent need to reshape the discursive logic of the think tank, and discusses the construction scheme of triangulation for data-driven think …

Dynamic Modeling Of Inland Flooding And Storm Surge On Coastal Cities Under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts In Norfolk, Virginia Usa As A Case Study, Yawen Shen, Navid Tahvildari, Mohamed M. Morsy, Chris Huxley, T. Donna Chen, Jonathan Lee Goodall

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable …

State Antifragility: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach To Understanding State Behavior, Rebecca Lee Law

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding what makes states antifragile and why this matters by constructing a parsimonious, first of its kind agent-based model. The model focuses on the key elements of state antifragility that reside along a spectrum of fragility and transverse bidirectionally from fragile to resilient to antifragile given a certain set of environmental conditions.

First coined by Nicholas Nassim Taleb and applied to economics, antifragility is a nascent concept. In 2015, Nassim Taleb and Gregory Treverton’s article in Foreign Affairs outlined five characteristics of state antifragility. This project aims to advance the study of anti-fragility …

A Configurable Social Network For Running Irb-Approved Experiments, Mihovil Mandic

Dartmouth College Undergraduate Theses

Our world has never been more connected, and the size of the social media landscape draws a great deal of attention from academia. However, social networks are also a growing challenge for the Institutional Review Boards concerned with the subjects’ privacy. These networks contain a monumental variety of personal information of almost 4 billion people, allow for precise social profiling, and serve as a primary news source for many users. They are perfect environments for influence operations that are becoming difficult to defend against. Motivated to study online social influence via IRB-approved experiments, we designed and implemented a flexible, scalable, …

Water Elites’ Perceptions Of Water Security In The Middle East And North Africa Region, Ghaleb Akari

Dissertations

The Middle East and North African region continues to face significant water security challenges. The purpose of this dissertation is to gain a deeper understanding of water elites’ perceptions of water security in the MENA region. It is not meant to generalize the findings. Instead, the intention for the research is to identify, explain, and analyze by national elites' contrasting perceptions in Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, and Tunisia.

The study examines water elites’ perceptions in four areas: current knowledge level of water security, water resource management, water service delivery, and water-related risk mitigation. These elites’ perceptions of water security will help …

Scottish Marine Renewable Energy: U.S. Approaches For Development Of Wave And Tidal Technologies, Stella Kathryn Fairall

Honors Theses and Capstones

Marine renewable energy, energy harnessed from various ocean resources such as waves, tides, currents, thermal gradients, and marine streams, has incredible potential in the United States. Several European countries have realized the potential of the resource in the North Sea and Atlantic and have created incredibly successful industries already. The United Kingdom, particularly Scotland, is the world leader because of the comprehensive policy, labor force, and markets it has established in order to make MRE a competitive energy source. In the United States, the industry is immature, underfunded, and lacks policy support. In order to establish itself as a world …

Neither “Post-War” Nor Post-Pregnancy Paranoia: How America’S War On Drugs Continues To Perpetuate Disparate Incarceration Outcomes For Pregnant, Substance-Involved Offenders, Becca S. Zimmerman

Pitzer Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the unique interactions between pregnancy, substance involvement, and race as they relate to the War on Drugs and the hyper-incarceration of women. Using ordinary least square regression analyses and data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, I examine if (and how) pregnancy status, drug use, race, and their interactions influence two length of incarceration outcomes: sentence length and amount of time spent in jail between arrest and imprisonment. The results collectively indicate that pregnancy decreases length of incarceration outcomes for those offenders who are not substance-involved but not evenhandedly -- benefitting white …

A Global Ecological Classification Of Coastal Segment Units To Complement Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Assessments, Roger Sayre, Kevin Butler, Keith Van Graafeiland, Sean Breyer, Dawn Wright, Charlie Frye, Deniz Karagulle, Madeline Martin, Jill Cress, Tom Allen, Rebecca J. Allee, Rost Parsons, Bjorn Nyberg, Mark J. Costello, Peter Harris, Frank E. Muller-Karger

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

A new data layer provides Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) labels for global coastal segments at 1 km or shorter resolution. These characteristics are summarized for six US Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) sites and one MBON Pole to Pole of the Americas site in Argentina. The global coastlines CMECS classifications were produced from a partitioning of a 30 m Landsat-derived shoreline vector that was segmented into 4 million 1 km or shorter segments. Each segment was attributed with values from 10 variables that represent the ecological settings in which the coastline occurs, including properties of the adjacent …

Agent-Based Modelling Of Values: The Case Of Value Sensitive Design For Refugee Logistics, Christine Boshuijzen-Van Burken, Ross J. Gore, Frank Dignum, Lamber Royakkers, Phillip Wozny, F. Leron Shults

VMASC Publications

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz’s theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform …