Models and Methods Commons^™

Trust In Government: How Sex, Race, And Ideology Shape Confidence In State And National Officials, Holden A. Mattison

Honors Theses

This research examines how sex, race, and political ideology shape individual trust in state and national government officials, with a particular focus on Mississippi as a case study. Drawing on data from the Mississippi Poll (2010-2014) and the 2024 American National Election Study (ANES), the research analyzes both bivariate and multivariate relationships to assess how demographic and ideological factors influence political trust across institutional levels. The findings reveal that race and ideology are significant predictors of trust at the state level, while sex has little effect. Whites and conservatives are generally more likely to express trust in state officials, whereas …

The Paradox Of Intellectual Property At The U.S. Supreme Court, Tonja Jacobi, Matthew Sag

Faculty Articles

The Supreme Court is dramatically more politically polarized in the Roberts Court era, and the justices have been criticized for highly ideological and partisan decision-making. Yet, we show that there is one area of law that is becoming less ideologically divided and predictable: intellectual property (IP). In an earlier study, we showed that, prior to the Roberts Court, IP case outcomes were predictable based on judicial ideology, with more conservative justices embracing IP rights, as they do for real property. In the last two decades, IP has become more influential on the economy and society, through the increasing dominance of …

Maritime Industry Cybersecurity Threats In 2025: Advanced Persistent Threats (Apts), Hacktivism And Vulnerabilities, Minodora Badea, Olga Bucovetchi, Adrian V. Gheorghe, Mihaela Hnatiuc, Gabriel Raicu

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Background: The maritime industry, vital for global trade, faces escalating cyber threats in 2025. Critical port infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable due to rapid digitalization and the integration of IT and operational technology (OT) systems. Methods: Using 112 incidents from the Maritime Cyber Attack Database (MCAD, 2020-2025), we developed a novel quantitative risk assessment model based on a Threat-Vulnerability-Impact (T-V-I) framework, calibrated with MITRE ATT&CK techniques and validated against historical incidents. Results: Our analysis reveals a 150% rise in incidents, with OT compromise identified as the paramount threat (98/100 risk score). Ports in Poland and Taiwan face the …

Magic As Political Might: Harry Potter, Authoritarianism, And Youth Political Behavior, Alexis Cobbs

Honors Theses

This thesis examines how authoritarian structures found in J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter series affect the political thoughts and behaviors of its readers, particularly those who read them at young ages. By examining how Rowling depicts authoritarianism and its opposition in the books, I hypothesized that increased exposure would correlate to an increased impact on readers’ political opinions. To test this hypothesis, I created an original survey designed to measure levels of exposure and participation in the Harry Potter fandom as well as respondents’ political opinions. I asked respondents to provide different examples of authoritarianism and its opposition in the books …

Al-Shabaab And Boko Haram: Recruitment Strategies, J. Tochukwu Omenma, Cheryl Hendricks, Nnamdi C. Ajaebili

Peace and Conflict Studies

This paper is an examination of the membership recruitment strategies of two violent extremist organizations (VEOs), namely al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. The majority of the literature on VEOs concentrates on the conceptualization of terrorism, motivations for terrorism and counter-terrorism strategies, as well as a focus on the frequency of VEO attacks, number of fatalities and funding sources. The literature tends to portray poverty as the main driver of recruitment. The focus on recruitment strategies has been relatively recent. There is therefore still a lack of in-depth analyses on the processes of recruitment of specific extremist groups, and this impacts on …

Political Ideology And Media Consumption, Andrew Robinson

Georgia College Student Research Events

Politics is a far reaching phenomenon that, in essence, controls everything that we do in our daily lives without us even realizing it most of the time, and it is constantly evolving and changing to fit the narrative of the age. In this modern world, we see an increase in political radicalization, especially in the United States. Politics has become more of a social experience than a set of beliefs, with some going so far as to incorporate it into their personal identity and seek and find the ideas that best fit them. This research analyzes the effect that a …

Partisan Voting On The California Supreme Court, Mark P. Gergen, David A. Carrillo, Benjamin M. Chen, Kevin M. Quinn

Faculty Articles

When did ideology become the major fault line of the California Supreme Court? To answer this question, we use a two-parameter item response theory (IRT) model to identify voting patterns in non-unanimous decisions by California Supreme Court justices from 1910 to 2011. The model shows that voting on the court became polarized on recognizably partisan lines beginning in the mid-1900s. Justices usually did not vote in a pattern that matched their political reputations and party affiliation during the first half of the century. This began to change in the 1950s. After 1959 the dominant voting pattern is partisan and closely …

The Enigma Of Electability: How Do Voters Predict Who Can Win?, Emily C. Dalgleish

Student Publications

Ideological moderation is often assumed to inform a candidate's electability. This article examines the effects of a voters’ perceptions of a candidate’s ideology on the voters’ belief in the candidate’s ability to win the election. Using data from the American National Election Survey from 2008 and 2016, the paper compares the effect of the perceived ideology of a candidate and individuals' predictions about the candidate that will win. Opinions regarding Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Donald Trump are analyzed. The results suggest that for the Democratic candidates, voters who believed them to be more moderate or conservative were …

Judicial Choice Among Cases For Certiorari, Tonja Jacobi, Álvaro Bustos

Faculty Articles

How does the Supreme Court choose among cases to grant cert? In a model with a strategic Supreme Court, a continuum of rule-following lower courts, a set of potential cases for revision, and a distribution of future lower court cases, we show that the Court takes the case that will most significantly shape future lower court case outcomes in the direction that the Court prefers. That is, the Court grants cert to the case with maximum salience. If the Court is rather liberal (or conservative), then the most salient case is that which moves the discretionary range of the legal …

Familiarity Bias: Examining A Cognitive-Affective Mechanism Underlying Ideological Support For The Status Quo, John C. Blanchar

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

It is well established that people like familiarity over novelty. Because that which is most familiar is frequently indicative of the way things are, favoring familiarity should create a psychological advantage for the status quo. In two studies, I tested the hypothesis that familiarity bias—susceptibility to the mere-exposure effect whereby attitude objects receive increasingly favorable evaluations due to repeated sensory experience—is foundational to ideological support for the status quo. In Study 1, individual variation in familiarity bias predicted greater Right-Wing Authoritarianism. Existential threat was experimentally manipulated via the salience of international terrorism in Study 2, but was unsuccessful due to …

How Not To Lie With Judicial Votes: Misconceptions, Measurement, And Models, Daniel E. Ho, Kevin M. Quinn

Faculty Articles

In Part I, we describe the formal spatial theory often invoked to justify the statistical approach. While spatial theory has the nice feature of synthesizing theory and empirics, legal scholars may remain skeptical of its strong assumptions. Fortunately, measurement models can be illuminating even if the spatial theory is questionable.

To illustrate this, Part II provides a nontechnical overview of the intuition behind measurement models that take merits votes as an input and return a summary score of Justice-specific behavior as an output. Such scores provide clear and intuitive descriptive summaries of differences in judicial voting.

Confusion abounds, however, and …

Competing Models Of Judicial Coalition Formation And Case Outcome Determination, Tonja Jacobi

Faculty Articles

Forming a coalition on a multi-judge panel involves an inherent trade-off between coalition maximization and ideological outcome optimization. Much scholarship is premised on assumptions about how judges make that trade-off; these assumptions have consequences for how we view and measure judicial decision-making. Specifying these assumptions, formally modeling their effects, and basing measures of judicial behavior on these results offer the potential to improve analysis of judicial decision-making.

This article formally explores three commonly posited modes of judicial decision-making: a minimum winning coalition model, representing attitudinalist views of judicial decision-making; a maximum winning coalition, capturing the effect of norms of joint …