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Articles 1 - 8 of 8
Full-Text Articles in Models and Methods
Beyond Discrete Indicators: Modeling Intersectional Flood Vulnerability, Sina Razzaghi Asl, Eric Tate, Christopher T. Emrich, Md Asif Rahman, Kaeleb Royster
Beyond Discrete Indicators: Modeling Intersectional Flood Vulnerability, Sina Razzaghi Asl, Eric Tate, Christopher T. Emrich, Md Asif Rahman, Kaeleb Royster
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
Social vulnerability to flooding is shaped by intersectional social marginalization, yet most quantitative assessments employ indicators of single populations. This study applies spatial machine learning to examine how the intersectional social vulnerability indicators of poverty-race, poverty-housing tenure, and race-housing tenure compare with traditional discrete indicators of single populations in predicting flood exposure in California. Using geographically weighted random forests and partial dependence plots, we model spatial heterogeneity and non-linear relationships between social vulnerability and exposure. We quantified flood exposure using a population-adjusted measure derived from building footprints and modeled 500-year fluvial and pluvial flood hazard. The results reveal distinct explanatory …
Securitizing Kinmen: China’S Gray Zone Strategy And The Evolution Of The Kinmen Model, Ian Murphy
Securitizing Kinmen: China’S Gray Zone Strategy And The Evolution Of The Kinmen Model, Ian Murphy
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
This paper examines the evolving dynamics of cross-strait relations through the lens of securitization theory, focusing on China’s strategic deployment of what it calls the Kinmen Model and its implications for regional security. While existing discourse predominantly concentrates on a potential full-scale invasion of Taiwan, this study shifts attention to the strategic significance of the outlying islands and the nuanced employment of securitization to exert indirect control. Utilizing Vuori’s (2008) framework for analyzing securitization in non-democratic contexts, this research conducts a discourse analysis of nineteen Chinese language media sources to dissect the speech acts employed by Chinese media and their …
Assessing Spurious Correlations In Big Search Data, Jesse T. Richman, Ryan J. Roberts
Assessing Spurious Correlations In Big Search Data, Jesse T. Richman, Ryan J. Roberts
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
Big search data offers the opportunity to identify new and potentially real-time measures and predictors of important political, geographic, social, cultural, economic, and epidemiological phenomena, measures that might serve an important role as leading indicators in forecasts and nowcasts. However, it also presents vast new risks that scientists or the public will identify meaningless and totally spurious ‘relationships’ between variables. This study is the first to quantify that risk in the context of search data. We find that spurious correlations arise at exceptionally high frequencies among probability distributions examined for random variables based upon gamma (1, 1) and Gaussian random …
A Model Of Build Back Better Utilization: Long-Term Recovery Groups And Post-Disaster Housing Recovery, Eduardo Landaeta, Jesse Richman
A Model Of Build Back Better Utilization: Long-Term Recovery Groups And Post-Disaster Housing Recovery, Eduardo Landaeta, Jesse Richman
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
Housing recovery, especially for vulnerable populations, can be a challenging process. Questions regarding whether to rebuild damaged housing and whether to restore it to its previous state or to build back better must be answered. In the United States, Long-Term Recovery Groups (LTRGs) play a crucial role in channeling assistance to vulnerable community members as they embark on housing recovery. However, the experiences of LTRGs have been understudied. To address this gap, the study utilizes interviews with a diverse range of LTRG members and develops an agent-based model following the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol. The results highlight …
Emergence Of A Norm From Resistance: Using Simulation To Explore The Macro Implications Of Social Identity Theory, Khadijeh Salimi, Jesse T. Richman, Regina Karp, George P. Richardson, David Anderson
Emergence Of A Norm From Resistance: Using Simulation To Explore The Macro Implications Of Social Identity Theory, Khadijeh Salimi, Jesse T. Richman, Regina Karp, George P. Richardson, David Anderson
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
We usually hope that social norms discourage injustice. However, we are all witnesses to harmful norms enforced by governments, such as xenophobia, which need to be contested and changed. Previous studies have concluded that it is possible to change a harmful norm through contestation by powerless actors if suitable structural conditions exist. However, these structural conditions have not been sufficiently studied and, as such, are the focus of this paper. Our paper begins with a review of well-established micro-level theories of social identity theory (SIT), recast as a set of 42 discrete theoretical statements. These statements are then re-expressed in …
A Gamefied Synthetic Environment For Evaluation Of Counter-Disinformation Solutions, Jesse Richman, Lora Pitman, Girish S. Nandakumar
A Gamefied Synthetic Environment For Evaluation Of Counter-Disinformation Solutions, Jesse Richman, Lora Pitman, Girish S. Nandakumar
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
This paper presents a simulation-based approach to countering online dis/misinformation. This disruptive technology experiment incorporated a synthetic environment component, based on adapted SIR epidemiological model to evaluate and visualize the effectiveness of suggested solutions to the issue. The participants in the simulation were given a realistic scenario depicting a dis/misinformation threat and were asked to select a number of solutions, described in IoS (Ideas-of-Systems) cards. During the event, the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the IoS cards, were tested in a synthetic environment (SEN), built after a Susceptible-Infected-Resistant (SIR) model. The participants, divided into teams, presented and justified their dis/misinformation …
A Global Ecological Classification Of Coastal Segment Units To Complement Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Assessments, Roger Sayre, Kevin Butler, Keith Van Graafeiland, Sean Breyer, Dawn Wright, Charlie Frye, Deniz Karagulle, Madeline Martin, Jill Cress, Tom Allen, Rebecca J. Allee, Rost Parsons, Bjorn Nyberg, Mark J. Costello, Peter Harris, Frank E. Muller-Karger
A Global Ecological Classification Of Coastal Segment Units To Complement Marine Biodiversity Observation Network Assessments, Roger Sayre, Kevin Butler, Keith Van Graafeiland, Sean Breyer, Dawn Wright, Charlie Frye, Deniz Karagulle, Madeline Martin, Jill Cress, Tom Allen, Rebecca J. Allee, Rost Parsons, Bjorn Nyberg, Mark J. Costello, Peter Harris, Frank E. Muller-Karger
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
A new data layer provides Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) labels for global coastal segments at 1 km or shorter resolution. These characteristics are summarized for six US Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) sites and one MBON Pole to Pole of the Americas site in Argentina. The global coastlines CMECS classifications were produced from a partitioning of a 30 m Landsat-derived shoreline vector that was segmented into 4 million 1 km or shorter segments. Each segment was attributed with values from 10 variables that represent the ecological settings in which the coastline occurs, including properties of the adjacent …
A Pca-Ols Model For Assessing The Impact Of Surface Biophysical Parameters On Land Surface Temperature Variations, Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei, Seyed Kazem Alavipanah, Hua Liu, Amir Sedighi, Naeim Mijani, Majid Kiavarz, Qihao Weng
A Pca-Ols Model For Assessing The Impact Of Surface Biophysical Parameters On Land Surface Temperature Variations, Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei, Seyed Kazem Alavipanah, Hua Liu, Amir Sedighi, Naeim Mijani, Majid Kiavarz, Qihao Weng
Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications
Analysis of land surface temperature (LST) spatiotemporal variations and characterization of the factors affecting these variations are of great importance in various environmental studies and applications. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated model for characterizing LST spatiotemporal variations and for assessing the impact of surface biophysical parameters on the LST variations. For this purpose, a case study was conducted in Babol City, Iran, during the period of 1985 to 2018. We used 122 images of Landsat 5, 7, and 8, and products of water vapor (MOD07) and daily LST (MOD11A1) from the MODIS sensor of the …