Models and Methods Commons^™

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …

The Research On Site Selection Of Dry Port Cluster Of Ningbo Port, Jiawei Feng

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On The Fluctuation And Forecasting Of International Dry Bulk Shipping Market Cycle Based On Rocet, Qianmo Zhang

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Multimodal Transport Cost Analysis Of Coal Transport From Datong To Wh Power Station, Tingting Gao

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

The Research On Competitiveness Of The Shipping Sectors In Pudong Shipping Cluster Of Shanghai International Shipping Center, Yuan Feng

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Research On Inbound Logistics Strategy For Shanghai General Motors, Zhe Zou

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Liner Shipping Lane Planning From Shanghai Port To Guangzhou Port Of Shanghai Baoyin Shipping Co., Ltd, Zhujun Zhou

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Let Political System Be A Connecting Tool, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

An article by Eugene K B Tan, Assistant Professor of Law analysing the Prime Minister's National Day Rally speech. He suggests the PM could have used the speech to highlight how the political system can evolve to generate greater public ownership of the system of governance.

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …

Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

This presentation was part of a staff workshop focused on empirical methods and applied research. This includes a basic overview of regression with matrix algebra, maximum likelihood, inference, and model assumptions. Distinctions are made between paradigms related to classical statistical methods and algorithmic approaches. The presentation concludes with a brief discussion of generalization error, data partitioning, decision trees, and neural networks.

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …

Development For The Past, Present, And Future: Defining And Measuring Sustainable Development, Max Cantor

Senior Honors Projects

In 1987, the United Nations released the Brundtland Report, which defined sustainable development as “development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” While this definition provides a relatively stable theoretical base from which development economists and political scientists can begin to tackle issues surrounding sustainable development, the inherently amorphous nature of this definition has also created a fair amount of ambiguity in both the economic literature surrounding sustainable development and the subsequent attempts by economists to measure it.

Historically, those interested in the science of development have typically …

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …

New Cabinet Will Have Its Work Cut Out, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Eugene Tan, asst professor of law at SMU writes a commentary about how the PAP Government will have to renew trust with the people.

What Is Conservatism?, Heidi Peters

Graduate Research Symposium (2010 - 2017)

The re-branding of the right manifested itself in conservative movements and gatherings across the country in-between 2008 & 2010. One of those events included Glenn Beck's Restoring Honor Rally on August 28, 2010. This research project is a case study that illustrates how the conservative political ideology is defined and rejuvenated after massive defeat.

Decision-Making Techniques Used By Elected Officials, Michael Gordon

Graduate Research Symposium (2010 - 2017)

Politicians often make decisions that lead to contradictory outcomes from situations with seemingly similar circumstances and related factors. Recent examples include the U.S. reaction to the uprising in Iran contrasted with the call for the ousting of president Hosni Mubarak after the 18 Day Revolution in Egypt.

This frustrating reality, frequently based on perceived risks of publication of state secrets, has various far-reaching effects. Two effects of this reality include the loss of trust in government and government officials to do the right thing as well as the frequency of market fluctuations.

Booms And Busts: Russia And Its Oil, 1970 To 2011 And Beyond, Cliff Gaddy

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

For 40 years Russia’s domestic economic and political development and its foreign policy ambitions have been driven by the varying fortunes of its oil and gas wealth. The story continues to play out today, with crucial global consequences. Russia remains the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. It holds the third largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Understanding the role of Russia’s energy wealth is key to understanding what role the country may play in world energy security and geopolitics in the years ahead.

Network Legitimacy And Accountability In A Developmental Perspective, Richard K. Ghere

Political Science Faculty Publications

Public networks typically function beyond the lines of the hierarchical authorities that hold bureaucracies accountable, as is shown here in the case of a business-dominant network that exhibited ethically questionable behaviors at the expense of its community credibility. Public networks can build external legitimacy by engaging in critical organization learning processes, much the way some nongovernmental organizations respond to a diversity of stakeholders.

Federal Earmarks In The State Of Georgia, Jeffrey Lazarus

Georgia Journal of Public Policy

Earmarks have been controversial ever since becoming a prominent part of the congressional spending process. Critics charge that earmarks fund projects with little or no economic value (for instance Ted Stevens’ “Bridge to Nowhere,”) but instead allow Congress members to direct government spending to campaign contributors (the charge leading to a federal investigation of the now-defunct lobbying firm PMA Group). On the other side of the controversy, congressional earmarks do fund a number of community improvements which are very valuable, at least locally. In Georgia, the fiscal 2010 appropriations bills included earmarks which allocated $450,000 to update College Park’s emergency …

Political Information And Emotions In Ethnic Conflict Interventions, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos, Nehemia Geva

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study explores the effects of political information and anger on the public’s cognitive processing and foreign policy preferences concerning third-party interventions in ethnic conflict. Our study employs an experimental design wherein we manipulate policy-specific information by generating ad hoc political information related to ethnic conflict. The statistical methods of analysis are logistic regression and analysis of covariance. The results demonstrate that both political information and anger have a significant impact on an individual’s cognitive processing and policy preferences regarding ethnic conflict interventions. Specifically, political information increases one’s proclivity to choose non-military policy options, whereas anger instigates support for aggressive …

Political Information And Emotions In Ethnic Conflict Interventions, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos, Nehemia Geva

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study explores the effects of political information and anger on the public’s cognitive processing and foreign policy preferences concerning third-party interventions in ethnic conflict. Our study employs an experimental design wherein we manipulate policy-specific information by generating ad hoc political information related to ethnic conflict. The statistical methods of analysis are logistic regression and analysis of covariance. The results demonstrate that both political information and anger have a significant impact on an individual’s cognitive processing and policy preferences regarding ethnic conflict interventions. Specifically, political information increases one’s proclivity to choose non-military policy options, whereas anger instigates support for aggressive …

Scaling Policy Preferences From Coded Political Texts, Will Lowe, Kenneth Benoit, Slava Mikhaylov, Michael Laver

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Scholars estimating policy positions from political texts typically code words or sentences and then build left-right policy scales based on the relative frequencies of text units coded into different categories. Here we reexamine such scales and propose a theoretically and linguistically superior alternative based on the logarithm of odds-ratios. We contrast this scale with the current approach of the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), showing that our proposed logit scale avoids widely acknowledged flaws in previous approaches. We validate the new scale using independent expert surveys. Using existing CMP data, we show how to estimate more distinct policy dimensions, for more …

Non-Partisan ‘Get-Out-The-Vote’ Efforts And Policy Outcomes, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

This paper utilizes a simple model of redistributive politics with voter abstention to analyze the impact of nonpartisan ‘get-out-the-vote’ efforts on policy outcomes. Although such efforts are often promoted on the grounds that they provide the social benefit of increasing participation in the electoral process, we find that they have a meaningful impact on policy outcomes and are an important political influence activity for nonprofit advocacy organizations. In equilibrium, nonpartisan gotv efforts are more likely to arise in those segments of the electorate that are sufficiently small and disenfranchised (as measured by the ex ante voter abstention rate). Among those …

Religion, Politics, And Polity Replication: Religious Differences In Preferences For Institutional Design, Joshua D. Ambrosius

Political Science Faculty Publications

This article presents a theory of polity replication in which religious congregants prefer institutions in other realms of society, including the state, to be structured like their church. Polities, or systems of church governance and administration, generally take one of three forms: episcopal (hierarchical/centralized), presbyterian (collegial/regional), or congregational (autonomous/decentralized). When asked to cast a vote to shape institutions in a centralizing or decentralizing manner, voters are influenced by organizational values shaped by their respective religious traditions‘ polity structures. Past social scientific scholarship has neglected to explicitly connect religious affiliation, defined by polity, with members‘ stances on institutional design. However, previous …

Attitudes, William A. Cunningham, Ingrid J. Haas, Andrew Jahn

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

This chapter reviews social neuroscience research that links social psychological attitudes and evaluative processes to their presumed neural bases. The chapter is organized into four parts. The first section discusses how attitude representations are transformed into evaluative states that can be used to guide thought and action. The next two sections address the related processes of attitude learning and change. The final section discusses applications of these concepts for the study of prejudice and political behavior.

Democratic Strength And Terrorism: An Economic Approach, Brian P. Winter

CMC Senior Theses

There has been much literature about the economic effects of terrorism in democratic countries, but this literature often considers democracy to be a binary variable. This paper sought to explore how the effects might differ depending on the strength of a democracy. In the end, I found that the numbers of attacks and the effects of those attacks do not follow a linear path. The results for autocracies and anocracies require further analysis, but democracies have revealed interesting results. It seems that democracies as a whole have more terrorist attacks, but, within this group, the more democratic a country is …