Macroeconomics Commons^™

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial inclusion and development in Nigeria. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and impulse response function (IRF) to determine the extent and response of financial inclusion and development to fiscal policy changes in Nigeria. The study derives a financial inclusion index from three core indicators: access, usage and quality of financial services, while financial development is measured as the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP). The results show that government expenditure has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion and development, while tax revenue exerts a negative …

Digital Currencies And Macroeconomic Performance: A Global Perspective, Tirimisiyu F. Oloko, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Idris A. Adediran

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

In this study, we explore the IS-LM-BP framework in analysing the effect of digital currencies on macroeconomic performance from a global perspective. We augment the global macroeconomic dataset by Mohaddes and Raissi (2020) with digital currencies, and analyse the relationship between 2010Q1 and 2019Q4. Overall, we find digital currencies to have significantly positive short-run and no long-run impact on global output, inflation rate, interest rate, and equity stock return. Our results suggest that digital currencies have enhanced global macroeconomic performance, on average. Thus, we recommend that appropriate regulations, rather than an outright ban on digital currencies, should be implemented.

What Impact Did The Tcja Tax Cuts Have On The Manufacturing Sector?, Ryan Parker

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

Throughout this paper I will examine positive effects the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 had on the manufacturing sector. To do this I begin by outlining the key provisions in the TCJA that directly benefit the manufacturing sector. This includes the corporate tax rate reduction from 35 percent to 21 percent, the changes to the repatriation tax for foreign funds, and the treatment for capital assets. I then analyze key metrics including pre-tax income, income tax provision, dividends, changes in retained earnings, and spending on property plant and equipment. I will show the interactions between the increase in …

How Did The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Of 2017 Effect Small Businesses?, Jackson Pittman

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 marked a significant overhaul of the United States tax system, promising to stimulate economic growth and enhance the competitiveness of American businesses. Amidst its broad-reaching reforms, the TCJA introduced several provisions directly impacting small businesses, aiming to alleviate their tax burdens and foster entrepreneurial activity. This thesis endeavors to evaluate the multifaceted effects of the TCJA on small businesses, examining its implications for their financial performance, investment behavior, and overall economic contribution.

Preliminary findings suggest that the TCJA has produced a generally positive result for small businesses. On one hand, reduced …

Is Asia On The Precipice Of A Currency Crisis? Exploring Regional Risks And Implications On The Global Economy, Hannah Deng

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This paper examines the economic stability of Asia in the face of a potential currency crisis through drawing upon the historical context provided by the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis. It systematically explores the characteristics and precursors of currency crises, analyzes the Asia-Pacific region’s response to past financial upheavals, and evaluates current macroeconomic vulnerabilities as well as policy frameworks. By juxtaposing the changes in Asia’s financial landscape from the late 20th century to the present, the study identifies persistent structural weaknesses and the region’s ongoing exposure to volatile global financial markets. It also considers the possibility of emerging markets establishing …

Euro-Denominated Credit Liquidity: Tracing Cyclical Phases In Global Finance, Mateusz Mariusz Mierzejewski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

In the past few years, set against the backdrop of pandemic mitigation efforts and the resultant inflationary spike, the macrofinancial landscape has undergone significant transformation. The tightening of monetary policy by global central banks in response to these phenomena has notably affected global financial liquidity, particularly within the realm of foreign currency lending. This article delves into the shifts in credit liquidity, centering on the Global Liquidity Index for euro-denominated loans across European Union nations over the last two decades. Through the application of the Fourier Transform, we analyse the cyclical patterns within the index and delineate the primary phases …

Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …

Minimum Exchange Rate And A Negative Interest Rate: The Swiss National Bank’S Unconventional Monetary Policy During Eurozone Volatility, Wally Bargeron

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Monetary policy is one of the most important tools that a government has to influence its economy. This means the ability for a country to determine their own monetary policy is important to that country’s autonomy. Switzerland has consistently based its decisions on what would afford it the highest level of autonomy, including the decision not to join the European Union and subsequently the decision to retain their own currency.

The Swiss National Bank retains the mandate to keep price levels (inflation) stable, but it is challenged by an appreciating currency. Because the Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency, money …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

The Economic Surplus, The Baran Ratio, And Long Wave Cycles, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This paper briefly outlines the idea and development of the economic surplus concept at the macroeconomic level as opposed to the one in microeconomics often labeled as a Marshallian surplus. Of special interest and focus is the concept as developed and used by heterodox economists. The notion of a residual amount of output or income over and above what is necessary for a society’s consumption (education, housing, food, clothing, health care, transportation, and other necessities of life) that can be used either for further consumption by an elite class, used for reinvestment in productive activities, and/or wasted on unproductive efforts …

Understanding Romania's Poverty: A Historical Overview Of Economics And Politics And Their Implications On Poverty Today, Benjamin Bucur

Senior Honors Theses

Romania is a country with a high-income economy that is experiencing considerable growth following its economic reforms of earlier decades. With growth, tendencies for an unequal society are prevalent. Therefore, appropriate economic policies that are specifically targeted toward bottlenecks are essential. This thesis seeks to outline the major types of poverty in Romania while also offering actionable entrepreneurial and educational insights that practically combat poverty at its roots.

Rising Interest Rates: What They Mean For You And The Economy, Timothy Meyer

Cornhusker Economics

Discusses rising interest rates what they mean for agricultural workers and the economy.

Evolving Marketization, Societal Trends, And Indicators In Chile And The Andean Region, Cristian Andres Sepulveda, Clifford J. Shultz, Mark Peterson

Markets, Globalization & Development Review

The effects of marketization on Chile and the broader Andean Region are profound and systemic. Key indicators reveal trends toward economic growth, improved social conditions, and sustainable development. The marketization of the Andean Region, however, is a complex and evolving process. We report on recent developments, which necessitate some reflection on trends and prognoses. In particular, while marketization has led to better education, increased social mobility, and enhanced well-being, one of the most important challenges facing countries in the region is ensuring that the benefits of marketization are shared equitably among all members of society. Priorities include further improvements in …

Information, Communication, And Technology In Developing Countries: The Impediment To Nigeria Economic Growth, Fatima Ali Muhammed

Dissertations and Theses

Technological revolution has shifted the world to a post-industrial society as information communication and technology (ICT) govern the centrality of human interaction. ICT has become widely influential at all levels of life, especially socially and economically.

In the 21st century, innovative technologies have become a crucial element of accelerating all factors of production to deliver rapid and effective results in every sector of the economy. The Internet, as a component of ICT, has become the global computing network that facilitates the access, analysis and dissemination of infinite information rapidly using advanced technology.

Policy makers, researchers, business leaders, academics are all …

Urban Expansion Of Energiewende In Germany: A Systematic Bibliometric Analysis And Literature Study, Peter Yang

Faculty Scholarship

Background: Despite Germany’s world leadership of Energiewende, there have been mounting challenges, such as the slowdown of German renewable energy growth since 2017, when the Merkel administration dramatically changed the German renewable energy promotion policy from feed-in tariffs to competitive auctions. These challenges pose important research questions about whether and how an emerging urban expansion of Energiewende can serve as a vital solution to counteract the challenges to the energy transition. Answering these research questions provides a unique opportunity to explore the academic and historic foundations of the energy transition and its urban expansion, the emerging events that exemplify urban …

The Effect Of The Syrian Crisis On The Profitability Of The Country's Private Banking Sector, Osama Alyousef

BAU Journal - Creative Sustainable Development

This research analyses the effect of the Syrian crisis on the profitability of local private banks during the period from 2011 to 2018 using fixed effects estimator on panel data. The research studies all of the 14 Syrian private banks and includes bank-specific variables calculated from the published quarterly and annual reports of all the banks, as well as a variable for the Syrian crisis measured by the following macro-economic factors: the number of crisis-related casualties, the number of Syrians who fled the country as refugees or asylum seekers, and the Syrian Pound exchange rate against U.S. Dollar during the …

Innovation In Futures Markets: Event Contracts, Speculation, And Hedging, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

The CME Group has recently launched a new type of contract whose payoffs are based on specific events. These contracts are called event contracts but are also known as prediction contracts or information contracts. They are short-term contracts that expire at the end of each trading day. Traders can take positions in these contracts as they predict whether the price of a given asset will finish the trading day above or below a set value.

Discusses: How are they traded? Main characteristics of event contracts. Event contracts offered by CME group and event examples on October 21, 2022. Why were …

The Storm In World Fertilizer Markets Continues, John C. Beghin

Cornhusker Economics

This article updates the recent article on world fertilizer markets by Beghin and Nogueira (2021), which noted the perfect storm affecting global fertilizer markets through high demand, droughts affecting fertilizer supply, high fossil energy prices, COVID 19-related supply-chain disruptions, and trade policies, all conspiring to elevate fertilizer nominal prices to levels not seen since 2008. In the last 10 months, the Ukraine-Russia war and associated trade sanctions have exacerbated the disruptions in fossil energy, grain, vegetable oil, and fertilizer markets already present in 2021. On the more hopeful side, some United States trade policy developments will help reduce US fertilizer …

Lessons Learned: Christopher Spoth, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

As senior deputy director of the Division of Supervision and Consumer Protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Spoth led examinations, enforcement actions, problem bank remediations, and failure resolutions, among a range of responsibilities. During the Global Financial Crisis, he was on the front lines of fast-moving policy discussions and actions to help stabilize the financial system, and he oversaw the closure and restructuring of some of the nation’s largest banks. This abstract is based on an interview with Spoth on February 4, 2021.

Lessons Learned: Kevin Warsh, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

As senior deputy director of the Division of Supervision and Consumer Protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Spoth led examinations, enforcement actions, problem bank remediations, and failure resolutions, among a range of responsibilities. During the Global Financial Crisis, he was on the front lines of fast-moving policy discussions and actions to help stabilize the financial system, and he oversaw the closure and restructuring of some of the nation’s largest banks. This abstract is based on an interview with Spoth on February 4, 2021.

Lessons Learned: Brian Sack, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Charged with overseeing the implementation of the asset-purchase programs and liquidity facilities in his roles as executive vice president of the Markets Group and manager of the System Open Market Account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), Brian Sack played a critical role in keeping markets functioning during the years 2009–2012. He served as an adviser to top policymakers, and, in addition to implementing the various programs designed to stabilize financial conditions, he monitored their impact and measured their performance. This Lessons Learned summary is based on an interview with Sack on November 13, 2020.

Lessons Learned: Nathan Sheets, Yasemin Sim Esmen, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Between 2007 and 2011, Nathan Sheets was director of the Division of International Finance at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He oversaw the operations of the division and advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on economic and financial developments in foreign countries. Sheets also regularly represented the Federal Reserve Board at international meetings and in its contacts with foreign central banks. Under his helm, the division was involved in helping establish and manage the US dollar liquidity swap lines with foreign central banks. This Lessons Learned abstract is based on an interview with Sheets on …

Lessons Learned: Susan Mclaughlin, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

A veteran staff member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), Susan McLaughlin served as head of the discount window and chief operating officer of the FRBNY’s Markets Trading Desk during the Global Financial Crisis. She was centrally involved in the Fed’s policy response to the disruptions to secured and unsecured funding markets during 2007–2008. Following the crisis, McLaughlin coordinated an effective Fed initiative to reform the triparty repurchase agreement (repo) market’s settlement infrastructure. The Fed’s reform efforts, engaging the financial industry under FRBNY president Bill Dudley, were instrumental in im-proving the stability of the funding market. This …

Lessons Learned: Frederic Mishkin, Matthew A. Lieber

Journal of Financial Crises

Rick Mishkin served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 to 2008 and as director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 1994 to 1997. A leading expert on monetary economics and financial markets and a professor at Columbia University’s School of Business since 1983, Mishkin has written 20 books, including the textbook The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Mishkin conducted on October 20, 2020.

Lessons Learned: Simon Potter, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Simon Potter, an economist, worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for more than two decades. Leading up to the Global Financial Crisis, he was the New York Fed’s associate director of economic research; in 2010, he became director. In 2012, he shifted to become the head of the markets group, putting him at the helm of the Fed’s open markets operations, the mechanism by which the central bank steers monetary policy and interest rates. He moved to the private sector in 2019. For this April 2021 Lessons Learned interview, he emphasized that these are his personal opinions, …

Lessons Learned: Steven B. Kamin, Yasemin Sim Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Steven B. Kamin was the deputy director of the division of international finance at the Federal Reserve Board during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and was appointed director in 2011. He was responsible for research, policy analysis, and reporting in the areas of foreign economic activity, US external trade and capital flows, and developments in international financial markets and institutions. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview conducted with Kamin on August 16, 2019.