Growth and Development Commons^™

The Livingston Survey 2023, S. Anderson, B. Bovino, M. Brown, Thomas Lam, Et Al

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The 15 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2023 than they predicted in the December 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the first half of 2023. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2023, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of -0.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey. Growth …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Is Democracy Good For Growth? Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.

Demographic And Population Change In Mountain West Cities And Suburbs, 2020 Census, Zachary Billot, Saha Salahi, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Demography

This fact sheet examines the five metro areas with populations exceeding one million in the Mountain West, drawing from the Brookings Institution report, “Today’s Suburbs are Symbolic of America’s Rising Diversity: A 2020 Census Portrait” by William Frey. Demographic data are included for both primary city and suburban portions for the major metros in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah.

Gender Inequality And Economic Decline: A Comparative Analysis Of Gender Roles And Its Impact On Economic Development In Egypt And Iran, Kayla E. Joyner

Senior Theses

This thesis will demonstrate that increasing female labor force participation in Iran and Egypt will facilitate overall economic growth, reduce poverty rates, and increase family investment in education and health. There are three critical factors that I will examine that are significantly deterring female participation in the labor force in these two countries specifically: sociocultural values, legal barriers, and economic policies. By refusing to mobilize the increasing potential female labor force, Iran and Egypt are hindering the nation’s social and economic development.

Feeling The Heat: Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Of Heat On Human Cooperation, Scott K. Klaus

Master's Theses

The goal of this paper is to examine how increased temperatures affect human behavior in terms of cooperation. Currently, there is an abundance of literature regarding increased aggression in humans as temperatures rise. However, there is ambiguity concerning whether a similar effect exists in altering levels of cooperation in human interactions. Additionally, people of different characteristics may be influenced by heat at varying levels. First, we run a baseline model of prosociality on different heat measurements, such as standard and wet-bulb temperatures. Included in this model are experimental specification variables, a “trigger”, and characteristics. The trigger is defined as losing …

The Child Nutrition Cost Of Weather Shocks In Nigeria, Danielle M. Abaya

Master's Theses

Child malnutrition is alarmingly high in Nigeria with the highest number of malnourished children, the second highest population of stunted children worldwide and 17 million Nigerians facing food insecurity. According to the World Health Organization, children are predicted to suffer about 80% of weather-related illnesses and deaths. As climate change continues to pose the greatest health threat and while scientists predict its irreversible effects in the next 10 years, countries such as Nigeria are already experiencing the burden of climate change today. This study uses total rainfall to measure precipitation and two Enhanced Vegetation Index variables, total change in greenness …

Sweet And Timely Insurance: The Role Of Honey In Reducing Coffee Producer Food Insecurity Exposure In Mexico, Grant Xavier Storer

Master's Theses

Smallholder coffee producers face a combination of pre- and post-harvest risk factors that leaves them particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. A popular form of on-farm diversification is honey production through beekeeping, that has both nutritional and commercial value. This study investigates the role of honey production as means of food security management due to the heightened pollinating activity during the coffee flowering stage that follows the annual coffee harvest provides an additional non-contemporaneous source of income. Using primary data collected in coffee-producing regions of Chiapas, Mexico, I find that during the honey harvest months, which occurs during the early stage …

Early Life Exposure To Enso And Adult Human Capital, Ashley J. Stewart

Master's Theses

Do El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions during a woman's early childhood lead to negative health outcomes in adulthood? This study poses as an extension of the 2021 paper by Anttila-Hughes et al. titled “ENSO impacts child undernutrition in the global tropics” and utilizes data from the same DHS, UDEL temperature and precipitation, and NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction datasets. It proposes to investigate whether the undernutrition effects found in children persist into adulthood by measuring the effects on their mothers and the intergenerational effects on their offspring. Results indicate that a 1℃ increase in sea surface temperatures in …

Development And Economic Complexity Of Mexican Municipalities: Based On Their Energy Access And Gross Production., Angelica Gloria Velasco

Master's Theses

In 2015, Mexico ranked 22nd in the international list of ECI; Out of 136 countries, Mexico had a higher index than Netherlands and Denmark. How is this possible for a developing economy that in 2014 reached its highest inequality index at 50.3%? This research is focused on the behavior of the Economic Complexity Index when it interacts with income inequality (Gini Coefficient), the gross production and human development (which in this case is focused on access to basic services: education and electricity). In the first and second sections, this paper highlights the importance of the analysis at a municipality level …

Affective Commitment, Mentoring, And Anticipated Turnover Among Millennials, Keiasha Hypolite

Dissertations

ABSTRACT

Millennials comprise the largest group of individuals in the workforce, yet organizations struggle to keep millennials engaged in the workplace. Millennials move from job to job, with an average stay at one employer between 12 and 18 months (Hechl, 2017). Researchers have reported that millennials cause the majority of turnover in the workplace. Globally, human resources practitioners experience difficulties retaining millennials (Sahraee et al., 2021). Previous studies have researched millennials, affective commitment, mentoring, and turnover. However, no known research has used all four factors to solve a global problem. In their discussion of the highly competitive labor market, Ramírez …

Chinese Political Rhetoric And Ideology: Tension And Pretension, Israel Paredes

Honors Theses

This changing nature of the Chinese government’s ideology leads one to believe that its core beliefs are not dogmatic, despite the foundation for their ideology being rooted in specific societal and economic theories. Starting with Mao Zedong to modern day, the Chinese government officials will continue to support the original tenets (and, no doubt, future presidents’ additions to the tenets). However, the interpretation of their ideology over time is fluid and is used to support policies and actions during a political cycle. Chinese political leaders are unlikely to disagree with a past leaders, and will rather use their own interpretation …

When God Gives You Tomatoes, Don't Import Them From Italy: A Case Study On The Impact Of Supranational Institutional Policy On The Ghanaian Tomato Industry, Kaci Wilcox

Honors Theses

Supranational organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the European Union (EU) have impressed market liberalizing policies upon developing countries for decades in efforts to stabilize their economies and introduce them to global markets. While these programs and the resulting popular scholarly debates are typically geared toward macroeconomic indicators, the way those policies affect industries on the micro level has been somewhat overlooked, especially when considering how such policy over time could affect an individual industry. This thesis studies how supranational organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank, and the EU contribute to the …

Pandemic, Retail Sales And Local Economies: Evidence From Northeast Oklahoma, Sanchari Ghosh, Brian Jackson, Ray Murphy

Mountain Plains Journal of Business and Technology

Early post-COVID pandemic studies focused on the macroeconomic impacts of that event on employment, income, healthcare costs, food security, etc. Yet there has been little emphasis on how changes in consumption spending patterns resulting from the pandemic affected retail sales and revenues, each of which are major contributors of growth for local economies. This study investigates these relationships by implementing retail pull and sales gap analyses to determine how non-metropolitan rural regions responded to consumption expenditures and retail sales before and after the pandemic. Using three cities of northeastern Oklahoma as a case study, retail pull factors at the city …

Bitcoin Price Dynamics: A Multiple Regression Analysis Of Market Variables, Zachary S. Biedscheid

2023 Symposium

Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency (property), has gained significant attention recently as a potential alternative to traditional financial systems. This research project aims to explore the market variables of Bitcoin by conducting a multiple regression analysis. The literature review highlights market dynamics and the impact of Bitcoin in economics and finance, specifically in banking and monetary systems. It explores Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply as a more secure and stable form of money, contrasting it with the flaws and inefficiencies of centralized banking systems. The dataset provides information on the Bitcoin market from July 23, 2010, to April 16, …

Renovating America's Electrical Grid: Renewable Sources And Resilient Delivery, Justin O'Hare Giffee

Student Theses 2015-Present

Since the late 1800s, America’s electrical grid systems have relied primarily upon fossil fuels for sources of electricity. Due to the outdated structural foundations and glaring holes in distribution networks, the existing electrical grids struggle with electricity escaping, and modern issues such as cybersecurity, resilience, and weather-related events associated with climate change. This essay discusses ongoing problems with current electric grid systems and aims at explaining the importance of incorporating renewables as a solution for these problems into a new grid system. In the first chapter, a detailed explanation is provided regarding the current issues present in America's grid systems. …

Best And Worst States To Work In The Mountain West, Vanessa Booth, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet explores workplace index rankings for the Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah from the 2022 Oxfam survey “The Best and Worst States to Work in America.”

Does Low-Income Housing Change Neighborhoods? Evidence From The Low Income Housing Tax Credit Program, Maria Dikler

Theses and Dissertations

This paper examines how LIHTC developments affect a census tract's characteristics. The results indicate that tracts with LIHTC developments have increased education, poverty, diversity, renters, and multi-family buildings. These tracts also have decreased household incomes and rents. However, the study reveals no significant effects on labor force participation or employment.

Reviving Agricultural Growth : Part - Vi, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Pakistan will have to develop a unified market linking the farms to retail outlets covering the full supply chain particularly in high-value commodities. Corporate investment and competition in on-farm storage, refrigerated vans and specialized trucks, silos and warehouses, wholesale distribution channels supplying to the processors, and opening up the highly inefficient and regulated marketing will eliminate the excessive rents earned by those involved in the present arrangements. This ‘unearned’ premium under a reconfigured modern value chain bolstered by competitive forces will then accrue to the farmers and the consumers while acting as a restraint on food inflation.

Heating Systems And Households’ Expenditure, Svitlana Holyk

Master's Theses

The heating energy expenditure has been frequently taken to the consideration across different studies of poverty reduction. However, there is an unresolved question related to understanding how households’ expenditures might be distinct due to the heating system characteristics. This research implements matching methods to investigate the causal effect of the heating system on households’ gas and electricity expenditure in Ukraine. The result indicates that there is a significant difference in the utility expenditure between the District heating system (DHS) and the Individual heating system (IHS) households. The inherited from the past the Soviet District heating system Model in Ukraine doesn’t …

Survey Of Professional Forecasters 2023, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Forecasters Maintain Their Expectations for Growth in 2023 The forecasters see the U.S. economy in 2023 expanding at the same pace as they predicted three months ago, according to 38 panelists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict annual-average over annualaverage growth in real GDP of 1.3 percent in 2023, unrevised from their estimate of three months ago. The panelists are also maintaining their forecast for growth in the second quarter at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, unchanged compared with their previous projection. However, while their predictions for the second quarter and for 2023 remain …

Designing For Mass Customization Housing Through Generative Design, Tania Salgueiro

Architecture Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research proposal aims to investigate computational design strategies for sustainable, affordable, and more equitable housing. The study will focus on the use of generative design tools, such as parametric modeling, rule-based modeling, and optimization, to aid architects and designers in creating custom housing complexes for single families in small and medium urban lots. The goal is to develop a computational method that considers sustainability, affordability, and long-term usage parameters to create housing designs that meet the desired spatial qualities. The research question asks how generative design tools can support designers in approaching affordable housing given the increasing demand for …

The Role Of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs In Improving Access To Professional Attendance At Birth In Indonesia, Kaitlin Murray

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper examines the impact of an Indonesian conditional cash transfer program, named Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), on households’ use of institutional delivery facilities at childbirth. Difference-in-differences and fixed effects regressions were conducted to examine the relationship between receipt of PKH cash transfers, use of institutional delivery facilities, and accessibility to institutional and traditional delivery facilities. The accessibility to institutional and traditional delivery facilities was demonstrated through a longer one-way trip time to these facilities. This paper had three significant findings: (1) that receipt of PKH cash transfers reduced the use of institutional delivery facilities, (2) that receipt of PKH …

Income Inequality And Economic Growth: An Analysis, Nicholas Martin

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Income inequality and its relationship with economic growth has been a subject of debate in academia for decades. This paper examines the relationship the Gini index of five selected countries and four macroeconomic variables (GDP growth, unemployment rate, lending interest rate, and savings rate) for each country with two developed nations being represented (United States and Italy) and three developing nations being represented (Peru, Belarus, and Indonesia). After reviewing the literature on the relationship between income inequality and economic growth, a multivariate regression analysis of each country is presented; first with GDP growth as the dependent variable, followed by a …

Historic Downtown Streetscape Plan Price City, Utah, Patricia Beckert

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The idea of a small-town Main Street has profound meaning within the American culture that has prevailed for the past two centuries. Historically, Main Street serves as the beating heart of a community, a place where economic, social, cultural, and civic activities are centered (Francaviglia, 1996; Main Street America, n.d.). Since the beginning of the 19th century, many factors have led to the decline of Main Streets, and despite a variety of efforts from different stakeholders, that decline has only intensified in recent decades (Isenberg, 2008; Orvell, 2014 Howard, 2015). In 1980, after a three-year project conducted by the National …

The Influences Of The Public Health Care System And Education System On The Economic Growth Of Swaziland, Grace Greer

International and Global Studies Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Kingdom of Eswatini, also known as Swaziland, has one of the youngest populations in the world with over 70% of citizens being under the age of 18 years old. This creates a substantial opportunity for economic, social, and educational growth in a country previously plagued with diseases such as HIV/AIDS, poor health care infrastructure cutting off thousands from basic care, and an educational system with a very low attendance rate and an even lower graduation rate. By evaluating the root causes of such issues dating back to the colonial era there is an opportunity to reprioritize health care and …

Analyzing The Impact Of Automation On Employment In Different Us Regions: A Data-Driven Approach, Thejaas Balasubramanian

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automation is transforming the US workforce with the increasing prevalence of technologies like robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. As a result, it is essential to understand how this shift will impact the labor market and prepare for its effects. This culminating experience project aimed to examine the influence of computerization on jobs in the United States and answer the following research questions: Q1. What factors affect how likely different jobs will be automated? Q2. What are the possible effects of automation on the US workforce across states and industries? Q3. What are the meaningful predictors of the likelihood of …

No More Empty Stadiums: A Meta Analysis Of Mega Sporting Events And Their Economic Impact, Tayte O. Gleason

Honors Thesis

Mega sporting events have faced increased scrutiny in recent decades for their negative economic impacts, externalities, and environmental effects. As multimillion dollar stadiums lay abandoned and future host city bids are withdrawn as public opinion on mega sporting events worsens with time, economists, governing bodies, and sports fans worry about the future locations of these massive sports festivals. In my thesis, I will conduct a meta analysis of articles measuring the various impacts and effects of hosting a mega sporting event. I will begin by performing an extensive literature review of the various factors contributing to a mega sporting event’s …