Econometrics Commons^™

Introducing New Forms Of Digital Money: Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera

ESI Working Papers

Central banks may soon issue currencies that are entirely digital (CBDCs) and possibly interest-bearing. A strategic analytical framework is used to investigate this innovation in the laboratory, contrasting a traditional “plain” tokens baseline to treatments with “sophisticated” interest-bearing tokens. In the experiment, this theoretically beneficial innovation precluded the emergence of a stable monetary system, reducing trade and welfare. Similar problems emerged when sophisticated tokens complemented or replaced plain tokens. This evidence underscores the advantages of combining theoretical with experimental investigation to provide insights for payments systems innovation and policy design.

The Doors Of Perception: Theory And Evidence Of Frame-Dependent Rationalizability, Gary Charness, Alessandro Sontuoso

ESI Working Papers

We investigate how strategic behavior is affected by the set of notions (frames) used when thinking about the game. In our games, the action set consists of visual objects: each player must privately choose one, trying to match the counterpart’s choice. We propose a model where different player-types are aware of different attributes of the action set (hence, different frames). One of the novelties is an epistemic structure that allows players to think about new frames, after initial unawareness of some attributes. To test the model, our experimental design brings about multiple frames by varying subjects’ awareness of several attributes.

How Federal Pollution Discharge Permits Affect U.S. Water Quality: A Study On Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, Cloe C. Mueller

Theses and Dissertations

This paper uses difference-in-difference regression models to examine how state-level pollution discharge permits on concentrated animal feeding operations affect U.S. water quality. I ultimately deem the permitting to be ineffective at improving water quality, calling attention to the need to re-evaluate the ``socially optimal level of pollution."

Universal Basic Income And The Alaska Permanent Fund: Impact On Labor Outcomes And Skill Composition, Michele Cafasso

Theses and Dissertations

To analyze the effects of universal basic income on labor supply and human capital, I estimate the effects of Alaska’s Permanent Fund on employment, hours worked, and skills using data from the Current Population Survey and O*NET. My method combines synthetic control and difference-in-differences regressions.

Medicaid Expansion: Changes In Individual Health Outcomes, Julie Norman

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The Affordable Care Act is one of the biggest changes in the American healthcare system in the 21st century. One element of the ACA is medicaid expansion, which opened up federal funding for states to cover any individual earning below 138% of the federal poverty line. 21 states expanded medicaid in 2014 while 12 haven’t expanded. This paper utilizes the disparity for a natural experiment to determine the efficacy of the program. Outcome variables of interest include measurements of individual health, health access and utilization, and premature death rates. The results indicate positive, but small improvements due to the policy, …

The Mangrove Walks: An Econometric Analysis Of Climate Migration Drivers From Coastal Bangladesh And Their Geopolitical Impacts, Kendall Scott Byers

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Coastal Bangladesh is subject to extreme climate change forces upon poor, rural populations. The aim of this thesis is to determine the strength of environmental drivers of migration and discern whether planned or catastrophic migration predominates in the polder areas of Bangladesh. I use regression analysis on a 1,025 household, 2016 IRRI/IWMI analysis of Polder 28/1, 28/2, and 30 within Satkhira district to determine factor correlations with migration. Progressive salinization is the strongest environmental driver, while flooding decreases migration through trapping household capital investment. Religion has the greatest correlation with migration. Hindus migrate less frequently, but do so with more …

Crime Reduction And Reformation In South Carolina: An Analysis Of Sb 1154, Matthew Torres

All Theses

This thesis evaluates the policy response to the criminal justice crisis of South Carolina, Senate Bill (SB) 1154, dubbed the Omnibus Crime Reduction and Sentencing Reform Act of 2010. SB 1154 adopted a series of “common sense” reforms, including new charges constituting as violent crimes, redefined sentences in the form of reduced penalties and harsher penalties for nonviolent and violent crimes respectively, mandated supervision of individuals on probation or parole, and credit programs for early release of inmates among other provisions intended to reduce inmate population, recidivism and violent crime rates.

I examine three key factors: inmate, imprisonment and violent …

The Economic Returns To Bilingualism In The U.S Labor Market, Mara Macdonald

All Theses

This paper uses pooled cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey to analyze the economic returns of bilingualism to adults in the U.S labor market. Bilingualism in the US is defined as English proficient individuals who also report speaking a foreign language “very well” or “well”. Using OLS Least Squares regression estimation where the dependent variable is the logarithm of earnings, I modify the Mincer earnings function to include foreign language skill variables and controls for observed demographic characteristics. Holding all levels of human capital constant, bilinguals earn 7.7% less than English monolinguals in the U.S labor market; however, this …

Can The Olympics Spur Local Socioeconomic Development? Evidence From Brazil, Alex Matandos

All Theses

Countries pledge ever increasing budgets and commitments to host the Olympics. The region whose bid emerges victorious puts in motion the reallocation of inputs, labor, and capital to build all the promised infrastructure to run the event, while the remaining areas in country remain largely unaffected by the intervention. This quasi-experiment scenario is proper for the usage of the Synthetic Control Method but few papers have exploited it. This paper fills the gap by being the first to offer an analysis at local level for a developing economy on the impact of the Olympics. Using Rio de Janeiro's winning bid …

Externalities In The Housing Market And Agglomeration Economies, Yifan Wu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis studies the externalities in the housing market and agglomeration economies. While knowledge-based externalities, or knowledge spillovers are one of the most important micro-foundations of agglomeration economies, the first chapter studies how knowledge spillovers from universities affect local innovation activities. In the second chapter, we propose a high-order spatiotemporal autoregression approach to study the externalities in the housing market. The third chapter studies another important but under explored aspect of the agglomeration economies – the role that marriage market plays in providing incentives to promote urbanization, along with the unique feminization phenomenon during this process.

The first chapter studies …

Household Preferences Of Decentralized Solar Photovoltaic And Thermal Systems, Roozbeh Ghasemi, Yue Li, Zhongming Lu, Ju-Chin Huang, Weiwei Mo

Student Research Projects

Small-scale, residential solar systems have been increasingly recognized as a key sector of future solar capacity growth and carbon emission reduction in cities. This study investigated customer preferences of solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) systems to facilitate their broader residential penetration. A discrete choice experiment was designed and administered through Amazon Mechanical Turk targeting two testbeds: Boston, Massachusetts and Atlanta, Georgia. Six system features were investigated, including system type, ownership, upfront cost, annual savings, environmental benefits, and neighbor’s choices. The collected data were then analyzed using latent class choice modeling to identify the hidden classes of unique preference characteristics and …

Essays On Long Memory Time Series And Panel Models, Shuyao Ke

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies different long memory models. The first chapter considers a time series regression model where both the regressors and error term are locally stationary long memory processes with time-varying memory parameters, and the regression coefficients are also allowed to be time-varying. We consider a frequency-domain least squares estimator with kernelized discrete Fourier transform and derive its pointwise asymptotic normality and uniform consistency. A specification test on the constancy of coefficients is provided. The second chapter studies a linear regression panel data model with interactive fixed effects where the regressors, factors and idiosyncratic error terms are all stationary but …

Mental Health Is Wealth Too: Did The Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion Improve Mental Health Outcomes?, Dereck Wang

Honors Theses

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly exacerbated mental health, which has long been a growing problem in the United States; poor mental health not only jeopardizes the well-being of Americans but also has severe implications for America’s economy. Not only do mental health conditions have significant costs of treatment, but the absenteeism, presenteeism, early retirement, and mortality stemming from poor mental health also severely impact productivity. One health policy that could alleviate this problem is Medicaid expansion. The Affordable Care Act gave states the choice to expand Medicaid eligibility for individuals with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty …

Spatial Panel Data Models: Unbalanced Panel, Threshold Effect And Network Structure, Xiaoyu Meng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis studies the estimation and inference problems for spatial panel data models when the panels are unbalanced, when the panels contain threshold effects, or when the panels contain time-varying network structures. These three scenarios divide the thesis naturally into three chapters.

The first chapter considers estimation and inferences for fixed effects spatial panel data models based on unbalanced panels that result from randomly missing spatial units. The unbalanced nature of the panel data renders the standard method of estimation inapplicable. In this chapter, we proposed an M-estimation method where the estimating functions are obtained by adjusting the concentrated quasi …

Testing The Dimensionality Of Policy Shocks, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Qiushi. Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a nonparametric test for deciding the dimensionality of a policy shock as manifest in the abnormal change in asset returns' stochastic covariance matrix, following the release of a macroeconomic announcement. We use high-frequency data in local windows before and after the event to estimate the covariance jump matrix, and then test its rank. We find a one-factor structure in the covariance jump matrix of the yield curve resulting from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shocks prior to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The dimensionality of policy shocks increased afterwards due to the use of unconventional monetary policy tools.

How Presidential Disapproval Affects Bitcoin Returns: A Product Of The President, Joseph Libretti

Honors Theses

There has been a growing fascination for decentralized electronic assets, and Bitcoin has emerged as the face and leader of the movement. There have been three different presidents coinciding with the growth of Bitcoin. Since the creation of Bitcoin, each president has faced periods of net disapproval, and these periods have been the norm throughout Obama’s, Trump’s, and Biden’s presidencies. There is currently no existing literature on Presidential ratings as a predictor of Bitcoin, however, there has been research on the predictors of Bitcoin and Presidential ratings as a predictor of financial markets. I hypothesized that increases in net disapproval …

The Effects Of Recreational Marijuana Dispensaries On Local Opioid Mortality, Patrick Morrison

Honors Theses

This study examines how recreational marijuana dispensaries in Colorado affect opioid mortality at the county level. Using a difference-in-difference model with county and year fixed effects, I estimate the impact of recreational marijuana dispensary access on fatal opioid overdoses. Additionally, I employ distance from a major roadway and border as two instrumental variables to help limit the endogeneity associated with the location of dispensaries. Previous studies have shown that medical and recreational marijuana dispensary access decreases opioid mortality at the state level. Still, no study has explored the connection between recreational marijuana dispensaries and overdoses at the county level. Using …

A Consistent Specification Test For Dynamic Quantile Models, Peter Horvath, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Andrew J. Patton

Research Collection School Of Economics

Correct specification of a conditional quantile model implies that a particular conditional moment is equal to zero. We nonparametrically estimate the conditional moment function via series regression and test whether it is identically zero using uniform functional inference. Our approach is theoretically justified via a strong Gaussian approximation for statistics of growing dimensions in a general time series setting. We propose a novel bootstrap method in this nonstandard context and show that it significantly outperforms the benchmark asymptotic approximation in finite samples, especially for tail quantiles such as Value-at-Risk (VaR). We use the proposed new test to study the VaR …

Weak Identification Of Long Memory With Implications For Inference, Jia Li, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores weak identification issues arising in commonly used models of economic and financial time series. Two highly popular configurations are shown to be asymptotically observationally equivalent: one with long memory and weak autoregressive dynamics, the other with antipersistent shocks and a near-unit autoregressive root. We develop a data-driven semiparametric and identification-robust approach to inference that reveals such ambiguities and documents the prevalence of weak identification in many realized volatility and trading volume series. The identification-robust empirical evidence generally favors long memory dynamics in volatility and volume, a conclusion that is corroborated using social-media news flow data.

Win: How Public Entrepreneurship Can Transform The Developing World, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

This book provides a story about the Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL) written from the perspective of its first full-time Chief Executive Officer. For those who have never heard of IDCOL, it was created in 1997 by the Government of Bangladesh as a nonbank financial institution to fill the financial gap for developing medium- to large-scale infrastructure. IDCOL had a very modest start with a nominal paid-up capital of less than US$2,000, but its capital, equity, and reserves increased to US$110 million by 2020. During this massive expansion, IDCOL met various challenges. This book gives an account of these challenges …

Bayesian And Machine Learning Methods With Applications In Asset Pricing, Yaohan Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation consists of three essays on asset pricing by constructing new data set and developing new methodologies. In the first chapter, we conduct empirical studies on the volatility-managed portfolios in the Chinese stock market. Using data from the Chinese stock market, we have found that the main empirical findings in Moreira and Muir (2017) break down. Based on the empirical findings, we exploit a comprehensive set of $99$ equity strategies in the Chinese stock market to analyze the value of managed portfolios. Based on these $99$ equity trading strategies, we find that there exists no systematic gain from scaling …

Political Legitimacy In Historical Political Economy, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Political legitimacy has long been recognized in the social sciences as an integral component of governance. It encourages obedience without the threat of force, thus lowering governing costs and improving the efficacy of policies. This chapter begins by overviewing the extensive literature on political legitimacy, classifying studies by whether they are based on the beliefs (regarding the legitimacy of the authority) or effectiveness (good governance is legitimate governance). Among the studies focusing on beliefs, most take legitimacy as an exogenous element of political authority. We develop a conceptual framework to study how beliefs regarding political legitimacy form endogenously and impact …

300 Anniversary Of Smith’ Birth, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Thousand-word brief on key quotes from Adam Smith’s two books (TMS, WN) modelling Society and Economy.

Determinants Of The Withdrawal Of Foreign-Invested Enterprises: Evidence From China, Zhihao Wang

Major Papers

Based on the industry and commerce annual report data, the present study uses the continuous-time nonparametric, parametric, and semi-parametric estimation to investigate the determinants influencing the withdrawal behaviour of foreign-invested enterprises. Through the survival analysis of 3,858 foreign-invested enterprises located in China from 2013 to 2020, the study found that operation profit, enterprise size and enterprise age have significantly negative impacts on the probability of enterprise withdrawal. At the industry-level and region-level, the improvement of industry entry rate and regional business environment ranking can significantly increase the probability of enterprise survival. The rise of the regional GDP growth rate and …

Youth Entrepreneurship Dynamics In Benin: Was Access To Finance The Missing Piece For Opportunistic Self-Employment?, Modeste Melain Senou, Kolotioloman Soro

The Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance

Young people in developing countries and more especially in Sub-Saharan African countries are seeking employment opportunities in challenging economic and social environments. Entrepreneurship appears then as a key factor in reducing unemployment, grasping for a sustainable job and reducing poverty. Both national and international authorities are taking steps to facilitate youth entrepreneurship. In that context, this study aims at reexamining the effect of access to finance on the dynamics of entrepreneurship of young people in transition from School to work in Benin. Using a SURE Probit procedure on data from the International Labor Organization (ILO) we estimated jointly the predicted …

Does My Skin Tone Really Matter? A Socioeconomic Analysis In Nigeria., Mutiu O. Fakorede

Master's Theses

Abstract: Does my skin tone really matter? If it does, to what extent and direction does skin tone predict socioeconomic outcomes, especially amongst people of color who have experienced colonial rule with its white supremacy agenda? In this research, we examined if skin tone measured in individual typology angle (ITA) does not affect employability, income, partner selection, and political representativeness. With a focus on Nigeria, the most populous black nation, a former British colony, we addressed this broad question through a survey. Using the iterative capability of Qualtrics which randomly picks a set of three pictures with known ITA and …

Life Insurance Access And Financial Resilience: Fostering Sustainable And Inclusive Growth In Latin America, Nicolas Thompsen

Honors Program Theses

Existing literature has documented an increasing focus on financial resilience to better address the issue of multidimensional poverty in developing regions. The move to financial resilience is a part of a long process that has examined the relationship between poverty and financial access. Yet because financial resilience is a relatively new topic, the specifics of how financial resilience can be fostered using specific financial products has yet to be substantiated. Thus, this study offers an examination of the relationship between life insurance access and financial resilience in a sample of 16 middle-income Latin American countries, the first study of its …

Motives For Cooperation In The One-Shot Prisoner’S Dilemma, Mark Schneider, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the motives for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD). A prior study finds that cooperation rates in one-shot PD games can be ranked empirically by the social surplus from cooperation. That study employs symmetric payoffs from cooperation in simultaneous PD games. Hence, in that setting, it is not possible to discern the motives for cooperation since three prominent social welfare criteria, social surplus (efficiency) preferences, Rawlsian maximin preferences, and inequity aversion make the same predictions. In the present paper, we conduct an experiment to identify which of these social preferences best explains differences in cooperation rates and …

How Do Reward Versus Penalty Framed Incentives Affect Diagnostic Performance In Auditing?, Bright (Yue) Hong, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Prior research examines how rewards versus economically equivalent penalties affect effort. However, accountants perform various diagnostic analyses that involve more than exerting effort. For example, auditors often need to identify whether a material misstatement is the underlying cause of a phenomenon among the possible causes. Testing helps identify the cause, but testing is costly. When participants are incentivized to test accurately (rather than test more) and objectively (unbiased between testing and not testing), we find that framing the incentives as rewards versus equivalent penalties increases testing by lowering the subjective testing criterion and by increasing the assessed risk of material …

Save, Gamble, Or Both? The Relationship Between Premium Bond Sales And Lottery Sales In The United Kingdom, Kaden Grace

Honors Theses

Four out of every ten Americans are unable to pay for an unexpected $400 bill out of their savings accounts. To ameliorate this problem, one policy to incentivize saving is a Prize-Linked Savings Account (PLSA). Unlike a traditional savings account that pays out a consistent rate of return, a PLSA pools the interest on all deposits and distributes the returns in randomly drawn prizes (similar to a lottery). However, PLSAs remain illegal in many areas due to a concern that the introduction of a private or public PLSA could cannibalize revenue from an existing state-sponsored lottery, thus restricting the state’s …