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Articles 1 - 30 of 39
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
A Classical Model Of Speculative Asset Price Dynamics, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith
A Classical Model Of Speculative Asset Price Dynamics, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith
ESI Working Papers
In retrospect, the experimental findings on competitive market behavior called for a revival of the old, classical, view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process (as opposed to price-taking behaviors) founded on reservation prices (in place of the utility function). In this paper, we specialize the classical methodology to deal with speculation, an important impediment to price stability. The model involves typical features of a field or lab asset market setup and lends itself to an experimental test of its specific predictions; here we use the model to explain three general stylized facts, well established both empirically and …
Better-Than-Chance Prediction Of Cooperative Behaviour From First And Second Impressions, Eric Schniter, Timothy W. Shields
Better-Than-Chance Prediction Of Cooperative Behaviour From First And Second Impressions, Eric Schniter, Timothy W. Shields
ESI Working Papers
Could cooperation among strangers be facilitated by adaptations that use sparse information to accurately predict cooperative behaviour? We hypothesize that predictions are influenced by beliefs, descriptions, appearance, and behavioural history available for first and second impressions. We also hypothesize that predictions improve when more information is available. We conducted a two-part study. First, we recorded thin-slice videos of university students just before their choices in a repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma with matched partners. Second, a worldwide sample of raters evaluated each player using either videos, photos, only gender labels, or neither images nor labels. Raters guessed players’ first-round Prisoner’s Dilemma choices …
Contingent Payments In Procurement Interactions - Experimental Evidence, Matthew J. Walker, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei
Contingent Payments In Procurement Interactions - Experimental Evidence, Matthew J. Walker, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei
ESI Working Papers
A primary objective of creating competition among suppliers is the procurement of higher quality goods and services at lower prices. When procuring non-standard goods, it is often difficult to write a complete specification of desired quality in the contract. Thus, payments to suppliers cannot be perfectly conditioned on the quality provided. We propose a correlated contingent payment contract to mitigate the supplier moral hazard problem while retaining competitive supplier selection based on price. We treat the probability of implementing contingent payments as probabilistic. The selected supplier’s payment is, according to a fixed probability, either the amount of their bid or …
Four Essays On Peace Consolidation And Ethnic Reconciliation In Postwar Sri Lanka, Narayani Sritharan
Four Essays On Peace Consolidation And Ethnic Reconciliation In Postwar Sri Lanka, Narayani Sritharan
Doctoral Dissertations
In four essays, this dissertation explores the process of peace consolidation and economic recovery from the devastating conflict of 1983-2009 in Sri Lanka. This dissertation addresses a timely and important topic. The findings make an important contribution to the literature on economic development and peacebuilding, specifically on the role of foreign aid in alleviating the risks of conflict and helping countries rebuild their economies after conflict. The dissertation highlights important political economy dimensions that help illustrate social and political dynamics that lead to conflict, such as regional and ethnic inequalities, which also influence post-conflict reconstruction. In addition to a historical …
Litigation With Negative Expected Value Suits: An Experimental Analysis, Cary Deck, Paul Pecorino, Michael Solomon
Litigation With Negative Expected Value Suits: An Experimental Analysis, Cary Deck, Paul Pecorino, Michael Solomon
ESI Working Papers
The existence of lawsuits providing plaintiffs a negative expected value (NEV) at trial has important theoretical implications for signaling models of litigation. The signaling equilibrium possible absent NEV suits breaks down with NEV suits because plaintiffs do not have a credible threat to proceed to trial undermining the ability to signal type. Using a laboratory experiment, we analyze behavior with and without the possibility of NEV suits. Absent NEV suits, behavior largely follows predicted patterns. However, the possibility of NEV suits does not cause the signaling equilibrium to unravel and does not cause the dispute rate to increase. Plaintiffs only …
Inequality As A Barrier To Economic Integration? An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Lukas Hohl, Rolf Weder
Inequality As A Barrier To Economic Integration? An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Lukas Hohl, Rolf Weder
ESI Working Papers
International economic theory suggests that people should embrace economic integration because it promises large gains. But policy reversals such as Brexit indicate a desire for economic disintegration. Here we report results of an experiment of how size and cross-country distribution of gains from integration influence individuals’ inclination to cooperate to reap its intended benefits and to embrace or reject integration. The design considers an indefinitely repeated helping game with multiple equilibria and strategic uncertainty. The data reveal that inequality of potential gains neither affected behavior nor reduced support for economic integration. However, integration may lead to disappointing, unequally distributed welfare …
Information Aggregation With Heterogeneous Traders, Cary Deck, Tae In Jun, Laura Razzolini, Tavoy Reid
Information Aggregation With Heterogeneous Traders, Cary Deck, Tae In Jun, Laura Razzolini, Tavoy Reid
ESI Working Papers
The efficient market hypothesis predicts that asset prices reflect all available information. A seminal experiment reported that contingent claim markets could yield market outcomes consistent with information aggregation when traders hold heterogeneous state-contingent values. However, a recent experiment found the rational expectation model outperformed the prior information and maxi-min models in contingent claim markets when traders hold homogeneous values despite the no trade equilibrium in that setting. But that same study failed to replicate the original result calling into question when, if ever, prices reliably reflect the aggregate information of traders with heterogeneous values. In this paper, we show contingent …
Historical Political Economy: What Is It?, Jeffrey Jenkins, Jared Rubin
Historical Political Economy: What Is It?, Jeffrey Jenkins, Jared Rubin
ESI Working Papers
In this chapter, we define what historical political economy (HPE) is and is not, classify the major themes in the literature, assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of the literature, and point to future directions. We view HPE as social scientific inquiry which highlights political causes or consequences of historical issues. HPE is different from conventional political economy in the emphasis placed on historical processes and context. While we view HPE in the most inclusive manner reasonable, we define it to exclude works that are either solely of contemporary importance or use historical data without any historical context (e.g., long-run …
United We Stand: On The Benefits Of Coordinated Punishment, Vicente Calabuig, Natalia Jiménez, Gonzalo Olcina, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara
United We Stand: On The Benefits Of Coordinated Punishment, Vicente Calabuig, Natalia Jiménez, Gonzalo Olcina, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara
ESI Working Papers
Coordinated punishment occurs when punishment decisions are complements; i.e., this punishment device requires a specific number of punishers to be effective; otherwise, no damage will be inflicted on the target. While societies often rely on this punishment device, its benefits are unclear compared with uncoordinated punishment, where punishment decisions are substitutes. We argue that coordinated punishment can prevent the free-riding of punishers and show, both theoretically and experimentally, that this may be beneficial for cooperation in a team investment game, compared with uncoordinated punishment.
Nobel And Novice: Author Prominence Affects Peer Review, Jürgen Huber, Sabiou M. Inoua, Rudolf Kerschbamer, Christian König-Kersting, Stefan Palan, Vernon L. Smith
Nobel And Novice: Author Prominence Affects Peer Review, Jürgen Huber, Sabiou M. Inoua, Rudolf Kerschbamer, Christian König-Kersting, Stefan Palan, Vernon L. Smith
ESI Working Papers
Peer-review is a well-established cornerstone of the scientific process, yet it is not immune to status bias. Merton identified the problem as one in which prominent researchers get disproportionately great credit for their contribution while relatively unknown researchers get disproportionately little credit.1 We measure the extent of this effect in the peer-review process through a pre-registered field experiment. We invite more than 3,300 researchers to review a paper jointly written by a prominent author – a Nobel laureate – and by a relatively unknown author – an early-career research associate –, varying whether reviewers see the prominent author’s name, …
Introducing New Forms Of Digital Money: Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera
Introducing New Forms Of Digital Money: Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera
ESI Working Papers
Central banks may soon issue currencies that are entirely digital (CBDCs) and possibly interest-bearing. A strategic analytical framework is used to investigate this innovation in the laboratory, contrasting a traditional “plain” tokens baseline to treatments with “sophisticated” interest-bearing tokens. In the experiment, this theoretically beneficial innovation precluded the emergence of a stable monetary system, reducing trade and welfare. Similar problems emerged when sophisticated tokens complemented or replaced plain tokens. This evidence underscores the advantages of combining theoretical with experimental investigation to provide insights for payments systems innovation and policy design.
The Doors Of Perception: Theory And Evidence Of Frame-Dependent Rationalizability, Gary Charness, Alessandro Sontuoso
The Doors Of Perception: Theory And Evidence Of Frame-Dependent Rationalizability, Gary Charness, Alessandro Sontuoso
ESI Working Papers
We investigate how strategic behavior is affected by the set of notions (frames) used when thinking about the game. In our games, the action set consists of visual objects: each player must privately choose one, trying to match the counterpart’s choice. We propose a model where different player-types are aware of different attributes of the action set (hence, different frames). One of the novelties is an epistemic structure that allows players to think about new frames, after initial unawareness of some attributes. To test the model, our experimental design brings about multiple frames by varying subjects’ awareness of several attributes.
How Federal Pollution Discharge Permits Affect U.S. Water Quality: A Study On Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, Cloe C. Mueller
How Federal Pollution Discharge Permits Affect U.S. Water Quality: A Study On Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, Cloe C. Mueller
Theses and Dissertations
This paper uses difference-in-difference regression models to examine how state-level pollution discharge permits on concentrated animal feeding operations affect U.S. water quality. I ultimately deem the permitting to be ineffective at improving water quality, calling attention to the need to re-evaluate the ``socially optimal level of pollution."
Political Legitimacy In Historical Political Economy, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin
Political Legitimacy In Historical Political Economy, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin
ESI Working Papers
Political legitimacy has long been recognized in the social sciences as an integral component of governance. It encourages obedience without the threat of force, thus lowering governing costs and improving the efficacy of policies. This chapter begins by overviewing the extensive literature on political legitimacy, classifying studies by whether they are based on the beliefs (regarding the legitimacy of the authority) or effectiveness (good governance is legitimate governance). Among the studies focusing on beliefs, most take legitimacy as an exogenous element of political authority. We develop a conceptual framework to study how beliefs regarding political legitimacy form endogenously and impact …
300 Anniversary Of Smith’ Birth, Vernon L. Smith
300 Anniversary Of Smith’ Birth, Vernon L. Smith
ESI Working Papers
Thousand-word brief on key quotes from Adam Smith’s two books (TMS, WN) modelling Society and Economy.
Motives For Cooperation In The One-Shot Prisoner’S Dilemma, Mark Schneider, Timothy W. Shields
Motives For Cooperation In The One-Shot Prisoner’S Dilemma, Mark Schneider, Timothy W. Shields
ESI Working Papers
We investigate the motives for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD). A prior study finds that cooperation rates in one-shot PD games can be ranked empirically by the social surplus from cooperation. That study employs symmetric payoffs from cooperation in simultaneous PD games. Hence, in that setting, it is not possible to discern the motives for cooperation since three prominent social welfare criteria, social surplus (efficiency) preferences, Rawlsian maximin preferences, and inequity aversion make the same predictions. In the present paper, we conduct an experiment to identify which of these social preferences best explains differences in cooperation rates and …
How Do Reward Versus Penalty Framed Incentives Affect Diagnostic Performance In Auditing?, Bright (Yue) Hong, Timothy W. Shields
How Do Reward Versus Penalty Framed Incentives Affect Diagnostic Performance In Auditing?, Bright (Yue) Hong, Timothy W. Shields
ESI Working Papers
Prior research examines how rewards versus economically equivalent penalties affect effort. However, accountants perform various diagnostic analyses that involve more than exerting effort. For example, auditors often need to identify whether a material misstatement is the underlying cause of a phenomenon among the possible causes. Testing helps identify the cause, but testing is costly. When participants are incentivized to test accurately (rather than test more) and objectively (unbiased between testing and not testing), we find that framing the incentives as rewards versus equivalent penalties increases testing by lowering the subjective testing criterion and by increasing the assessed risk of material …
On The Generalizability Of Using Mobile Devices To Conduct Economic Experiments, Yiting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei
On The Generalizability Of Using Mobile Devices To Conduct Economic Experiments, Yiting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei
ESI Working Papers
Recent technological advances enable the implementation of online, field and hybrid experiments using mobile devices. Mobile devices enable sampling of incentivized decisions in more representative samples, consequently increasing the generalizability of results. Generalizability might be compromised, however, if the device is a relevant behavioural confound. This paper reports on a battery of common economic games and decision-making tasks in which we systematically randomize the decision-making device (computer versus mobile phone) and the laboratory setup (physical versus online). The results offer broad support for conducting decision experiments using mobile devices. For six out of eight tasks, we find robust null results …
Panel Data Analysis Of Import Tariff Policy On Economic Growth And Industrial Output In Developing Economies, Connor A. Palazzo
Panel Data Analysis Of Import Tariff Policy On Economic Growth And Industrial Output In Developing Economies, Connor A. Palazzo
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper is focused on interpreting the effects of import tariff policy on domestic economic growth in the small market economies of developing nations. There have been several previous studies that have investigated the effect of tariff policy on domestic consumers and producers of already established economies. In addition, there have also been many studies assessing the effects tariffs from developed countries have on developing countries. However, few reports have been done on how tariffs impact the domestic producers of a developing nation. It is widely accepted that open and free trade is the best method for facilitating growth and …
Determinants Of Real Median Household Income In The United States Using Time-Series And Panel Data Analysis, Evan Clark
Determinants Of Real Median Household Income In The United States Using Time-Series And Panel Data Analysis, Evan Clark
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper’s main objective was to explore the determinants of income inequality using real median household income in the United States. This paper utilizes time series analysis to examine the Gini coefficient, trends in the top 1%’s share of wealth, and the relationship between real median income and varying demographics. The Gini coefficient is a summary measure of income inequality in a country. Income inequality is how unevenly income is distributed throughout a population. The results show that there is a negative correlation between the top 1%’s share of total wealth and the United States Gini rating, and that inequality …
Effectiveness Of Aid: Panel Data Analysis Of Foreign Aid In Africa, Will Bittrich
Effectiveness Of Aid: Panel Data Analysis Of Foreign Aid In Africa, Will Bittrich
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper investigates the effectiveness of international foreign aid flows into the continent of Africa. The study incorporates economic information into an econometric model to examine the influence of variables including natural resources, types of government, corruption, and education. The influence of gender equality and rule of law in relation to developed countries is factored in through a dependent variable. These findings provide an analysis on the efficiency of foreign aid and its effects on economic development in the region.
Impact Of Corruption On Economic Growth In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis, Ben Bresnee
Impact Of Corruption On Economic Growth In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis, Ben Bresnee
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper investigates the possible impact of corruption on economic growth in Central America. This study incorporates information into a model to examine the influence of different factors such as population growth, aid, human capital, gross domestic investment, Corruption, and consumption. This study finds that there is a negative effect of corruption on economic growth in Central America.
A Panel Data Analysis On Income Inequality On Life Expectancy In Asia, Julianna Flaccavento
A Panel Data Analysis On Income Inequality On Life Expectancy In Asia, Julianna Flaccavento
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper aims to investigate the possibility of interdependence between income and life expectancy in countries across Asia. The study looks at the difference of life expectancies for men, women, and the two genders combined. We also looked at how health could have an impact on the model. We ran a fixed and random effect model on our panel data. We then ran the fixed and random effect model on the countries separated by income levels which we separated into low, middle, and high. The results show that the fixed effect was significant in Asia on both males and females …
The School-To-Prison Pipeline: A Panel Data Analysis, Samuel Guider
The School-To-Prison Pipeline: A Panel Data Analysis, Samuel Guider
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
The objective of this paper is to analyze the potential affect public-school funding has on juvenile incarceration rates in the United States using a panel series data set from 2000 until 2020. The United States has the highest per capita incarceration rates among 114 other members of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with 639 individuals for every 100,000 are incarcerated in the United States. This papers aims to use explanatory variables like race (black and white), sex, age, arrests, educational attainment, and rates of school attendance to further help in answering if an increase in public spending …
The Empirical Analysis Of Motherhood Penalty: The Effect Of Having Children On Women’S Career, Madison Henry
The Empirical Analysis Of Motherhood Penalty: The Effect Of Having Children On Women’S Career, Madison Henry
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper investigates the motherhood penalty as well as the fatherhood bonus. The Motherhood penalty is a phenomenon by which women’s pay decreases once they become mothers. The fatherhood bonus refers to the advantages that working fathers get in terms of pay and perceived competence in comparison with working mothers and childless men. This study incorporates information on the effect a child has on a mother’s income verse that of a father’s, while also measuring how a woman’s income is affected after having a child comparatively to that of a childless woman’s. The results show that the income of Mother’s …
A Panel Data Analysis Of Institutional Quality, Fdi, And Public Debts’ Impact On Economic Growth For Asean, Joshua Kearney
A Panel Data Analysis Of Institutional Quality, Fdi, And Public Debts’ Impact On Economic Growth For Asean, Joshua Kearney
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper investigates the effects on economic growth driven by institutional quality, foreign direct investment, and public debt while doing a breakdown and comparison between the first and last five nations to join ASEAN as well as a collective analysis of the complete 10 ASEAN. The model used in this paper focuses primarily on the country’s gross domestic product and the domestic growth seen within ASEAN that utilized public debt to fund governmental agendas.
Panel Data Analysis: Gender Wage Gap And Macroeconomic Factors Impacts, Yuzhe Lin
Panel Data Analysis: Gender Wage Gap And Macroeconomic Factors Impacts, Yuzhe Lin
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper study the relationship between the gender wage gaps and macroeconomic factors that would impact them. The paper use panel data with data collected from OCED and World Bank WDI Indicator. The results show that the difference between female and male life expectancy, import, and female labor participation has a positive impact on the gender wage gap. FDI and Women business and law index score has a negative impact the gender wage gap.
An Empirical Analysis On Disparities In Access To Healthcare In New York City, Olivia Lemire
An Empirical Analysis On Disparities In Access To Healthcare In New York City, Olivia Lemire
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
Healthcare access varies across demographics. Access to healthcare is a strong determinant of health of individuals in New York City. There are a wide range of disparities in health care access for People of Color. Determinants of insurance include race, sex, education status, marital status, whether an individual has children. White individuals, specifically White females have the highest rate of insurance, while Latinx males have the lowest rate of insurance.
The Effect Of Minimum Wage Increases On Employment Of Teenagers In New England, Felicia O’Reilly
The Effect Of Minimum Wage Increases On Employment Of Teenagers In New England, Felicia O’Reilly
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper examines the relationship between increasing minimum wage and the number of hours that teenagers ages 15-19 work in New England states during the years 2002- 2019. In these years, all New England states have had various minimum wage rates, this paper will use feasible general least squares state-level panel data analysis to see if there is a positive or negative impact on teenage employment due to increases in minimum wage. Data was collected from the Current Population Survey, the American Community Survey, and state census data, and used with an equation derived by Zavodny (2000). State-level panel data …
A Panel Data Analysis Of The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Income Inequality In Latin American Countries, Scott Poretsky
A Panel Data Analysis Of The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Income Inequality In Latin American Countries, Scott Poretsky
Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation, trade, unemployment, education, and economic growth on income inequality in the South American OECD countries (Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, and Peru). While Argentina, Brazil, and Peru are not official OECD countries, they have a working relationship with OECD and have taken the first steps toward initiation in OECD. The variable that represents income inequality is the Gini Index World Bank estimator, and the variable that represents economic growth is GDP. This paper uses a panel data set from 2006 to 2020. The results of this study show that trade percentage, …