Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Evolution Of ‘Theory Of Mind’: Theory And Experiments, Erik O. Kimbrough, Nikolaus Robalino, Arthur Robson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper investigates the evolutionary foundation for our capacity to attribute preferences to others. This ability is intrinsic to game theory, and is a key component of “Theory of Mind,” perhaps the capstone of social cognition. We argue here that this component of theory of mind allows organisms to efficiently modify their behavior in strategic environments with a persistent element of novelty. Our notion of “Theory of Mind” ’ (ToM) yields a sharp, unambiguous advantage over less sophisticated approaches to strategic interaction because agents with ToM extrapolate to novel circumstances information about opponents’ preferences that was learned previously. We then …

Testing The Martingale Hypothesis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises tests. The tests are distribution free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for their implementation and so are well suited to practical work. The paper develops limit theory for the tests under the null and shows that the tests are consistent against a wide class of nonlinear, non-martingale processes. Simulations show that the tests have good finite sample properties in comparison with other tests particularly under conditional …

Unit Roots In Life — A Graduate Student Story, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This is a graduate student story. It mixes personal reflections with recollections of the extraordinary New Zealanders who shaped my thinking as a graduate student and beginning researcher — people who have had an enduring impact on my work and career as an econometrician. The story traces out these human initial conditions and unit roots that figure in my early life of teaching and research.

Functional Coefficient Nonstationary Regression, Jiti Gao, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies a general class of nonlinear varying coefficient time series models with possible nonstationarity in both the regressors and the varying coffiecient components. The model accommodates a cointegrating structure and allows for endogeneity with contemporaneous correlation among the regressors, the varying coefficient drivers, and the residuals. This framework allows for a mixture of stationary and non-stationary data and is well suited to a variety of models that are commonly used in applied econometric work. Nonparametric and semiparametric estimation methods are proposed to estimate the varying coefficient functions. The analytical findings reveal some important differences, including convergence rates, that …

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge the present paper develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long …

Reviewing The Leverage Cycle, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We review the theory of leverage developed in collateral equilibrium models with incomplete markets. We explain how leverage tends to boost asset prices, and create bubbles. We show how leverage can be endogenously determined in equilibrium, and how it depends on volatility. We describe the dynamic feedback properties of leverage, volatility, and asset prices, in what we call the Leverage Cycle. We also describe some cross-sectional implications of multiple leverage cycles, including contagion, flight to collateral, and swings in the issuance volume of the highest quality debt. We explain the differences between the leverage cycle and the credit cycle literature. …

What Users Want: A Contextual Overview Of Open Access Legal Resources In The United States, Brian T. Detweiler

Law Librarian Other Scholarship

Paper presented at the Law via the Internet Conference, Jersey, Channel Islands, September 26-27, 2013.

Reflections On Macroeconometric Modeling, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

I have been doing research in macroeconomics since the late 1960s, almost 50 years. In this paper I pause and take stock. The paper is part personal reflections on macroeconometric modeling, part a road map of the techniques of macroeconometric modeling, and part comments on what I think I have learned about how the macroeconomy works from my research in this area.

The Comparison Of Information Structures In Games: Bayes Correlated Equilibrium And Individual Sufficiency, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We define and characterize a notion of correlated equilibrium for games with incomplete information, which we call Bayes correlated equilibrium: The set of outcomes that can arise in Bayes Nash equilibria of an incomplete information game where players may have access to additional signals beyond the information structure is characterized and shown to be equivalent to the set of Bayes correlated equilibria. A game of incomplete information can be decomposed into a basic game, given by actions sets and payoff functions, and an information structure. We introduce a partial order on many player information structures — which we call individual …

The Comparison Of Information Structures In Games: Bayes Correlated Equilibrium And Individual Sufficiency, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The set of outcomes that can arise in Bayes Nash equilibria of an incomplete information game where players may have access to additional signals beyond the given information structure is characterized and shown to be equivalent to the set of a version of incomplete information correlated equilibria which we dub Bayes correlated equilibria. A game of incomplete information can be decomposed into a basic game, given by actions sets and payoff functions, and an information structure. We introduce a partial order on many player information structures — which we call individual sufficiency — under which more information shrinks the set …

Estimating Smooth Structural Change In Cointegration Models, Jiti Gao, Degui Li, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies nonlinear cointegration models in which the structural coefficients may evolve smoothly over time. These time-varying coefficient functions are well-suited to many practical applications and can be estimated conveniently by nonparametric kernel methods. It is shown that the usual asymptotic methods of kernel estimation completely break down in this setting when the functional coefficients are multivariate. The reason for this breakdown is a kernel-induced degeneracy in the weighted signal matrix associated with the nonstationary regressors, a new phenomenon in the kernel regression literature. Some new techniques are developed to address the degeneracy and resolve the asymptotics, using a …

Bayes Correlated Equilibrium And The Comparison Of Information Structures In Games, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The set of outcomes that can arise in Bayes Nash equilibria of an incomplete information game where players may have access to additional signals beyond the given information structure is equivalent to the set of a version of incomplete information correlated equilibrium which we dub Bayes correlated equilibrium . A game of incomplete information can be decomposed into a basic game, given by actions sets and payoff functions, and an information structure. We identify a partial order on many player information structures (individual sufficiency) under which more information shrinks the set of Bayes correlated equilibria.

Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real Time Detectors, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper provides the limit theory of real time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, PWY) and Phillips, Shi and Yu (2013b, PSY). Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolves as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal market behavior as well as exuberance and collapse. Both the PWY and PSY estimates rely on recursive right tailed unit root tests (each with a different recursive algorithm) that may be used in real time to locate the origination and collapse dates of bubbles. …

Norming Rates And Limit Theory For Some Time-Varying Coefficient Autoregressions, Offer Lieberman, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A time-varying autoregression is considered with a similarity-based coefficient and possible drift. It is shown that the random walk model has a natural interpretation as the leading term in a small-sigma expansion of a similarity model with an exponential similarity function as its autoregressive coefficient. Consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters in this model is established, the behaviors of the score and Hessian functions are analyzed and test statistics are suggested. A complete list is provided of the normalization rates required for the consistency proof and for the score and Hessian functions standardization. A large family of …

Testing Linearity Using Power Transforms Of Regressors, Yae In Baek, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We develop a method of testing linearity using power transforms of regressors, allowing for stationary processes and time trends. The linear model is a simplifying hypothesis that derives from the power transform model in three different ways, each producing its own identification problem. We call this modeling difficulty the trifold identification problem and show that it may be overcome using a test based on the quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) statistic. More specifically, the QLR statistic may be approximated under each identification problem and the separate null approximations may be combined to produce a composite approximation that embodies the linear model hypothesis. …

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Age Effects In Child And Adolescent Anxiety: An Individual Patient Data Meta: Analysis, Kathryn Bennett, Katharina Manassis, Stephen D. Walter, Amy Cheung, Pamela Wilansky-Traynor, Natalia Diaz-Granados, Stephanie Duda, Maureen Rice, Susan Baer, Paula Barrett, Denise Bodden, Vanessa E. Cobham, Mark R. Dadds, Ellen Flannery-Schroeder, Golda Ginsburg, David Heyne, Jennifer L. Hudson, Philip C. Kendall, Juliette Liber, Carrie Masia, Sandra Mendlowitz, Maaike H. Nauta, Ronald M. Rapee, Wendy Silverman, Lynne Siqueland, Susan H. Spence, Elisabeth Utens, Jeffrey J. Wood

Department of Psychology Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Background Investigations of age effects on youth anxiety outcomes in randomized trials (RCTs) of cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) have failed to yield a clear result due to inadequate statistical power and methodologic weaknesses. We conducted an individual patient data metaanalysis to address this gap. Question Does age moderate CBT effect size, measured by a clinically and statistically significant interaction between age and CBT exposure? Methods All English language RCTs of CBT for anxiety in 6-19 year olds were identified using systematic review methods. Investigators of eligible trials were invited to submit their individual patient data. The anxiety disorder interview schedule …

Examining Users’ Knowledge Change In The Task Completion Process, Jingjing Liu, Nicholas J. Belkin, Xiangmin Zhang, Xiaojun Yuan

School of Information Sciences Faculty Research Publications

This paper examines the changes of information searchers’ topic knowledge levels in the process of completing information tasks. Multi-session tasks were used in the study, which enables the convenience of eliciting users’ topic knowledge during their process of completing the whole tasks. The study was a 3-session laboratory experiment with 24 participants, each time working on one subtask in an assigned 3-session general task. The general task was either parallel or dependently structured. Questionnaires were administered before and after each session to elicit users’ perceptions of their knowledge levels, task attributes, and other task features, for both the overall task …

Inferring User Knowledge Level From Eye Movement Patterns, Michael J. Cole, Jacek Gwizdka, Chang Liu, Nicholas J. Belkin, Xiangmin Zhang

School of Information Sciences Faculty Research Publications

The acquisition of information and the search interaction process is influenced strongly by a person’s use of their knowledge of the domain and the task. In this paper we show that a user’s level of domain knowledge can be inferred from their interactive search behaviors without considering the content of queries or documents. A technique is presented to model a user’s information acquisition process during search using only measurements of eye movement patterns. In a user study (n=40) of search in the domain of genomics, a representation of the participant’s domain knowledge was constructed using self-ratings of knowledge of genomics-related …

Roots And Wings, Susan E. Murray

Lake Union Herald

No abstract provided.

Mobile 2d And 3d Spatial Query Techniques For The Geospatial Web, Junjun Yin

Doctoral

The increasing availability of abundant geographically referenced information in the Geospatial Web provides a variety of opportunities for developing value-added LBS applications. However, large data volumes of the Geospatial Web and small mobile device displays impose a data visualization problem, as the amount of searchable information overwhelms the display when too many query results are returned. Excessive returned results clutter the mobile display, making it harder for users to prioritize information and causes confusion and usability problems. Mobile Spatial Interaction (MSI) research into this “information overload” problem is ongoing where map personalization and other semantic based filtering mechanisms are essential …

Plant Management Systems Of British Columbia's First Peoples, Nancy J. Turner, Douglas Deur, Dana Lepofsky

Anthropology Faculty Publications and Presentations

This article provides an overview of the diverse plant resource management strategies of First Nations of British Columbia. Management practices range from relatively large-scale (geographically) and longterm activities – such as the use of fire to clear prairies and subalpine meadows – to very focused actions, such as the pruning of individual shrubs. We describe plant resource management practices and the diverse methods used to identify them, and focus on three case studies to augment this description. These case studies exemplify the range of plants and ecosystems that were managed as well as the combinations of strategies and outcomes encompassed …

Read Poster - Scrappy The Owl, Adam Olsen, Amy Thompson

Library Marketing Materials

READ Poster, featuring KSU mascot Scrappy the Owl.

Book: The Book of North American Owls, by Helen Roney Sattler and Jean Zallinger. New York: Clarion Books, 1995.

What Would My Avatar Do? Gaming, Pathology, And Risky Decision Making, Kira Bailey, Robert West, Judson Kuffel

Faculty Publications

Recent work has revealed a relationship between pathological video game use and increased impulsivity among children and adolescents. A few studies have also demonstrated increased risk-taking outside of the video game environment following game play, but this work has largely focused on one genre of video games (i.e., racing). Motivated by these findings, the aim of the current study was to examine the relationship between pathological and non-pathological video game use, impulsivity, and risky decision making. The current study also investigated the relationship between experience with two of the most popular genres of video games [i.e., first-person shooter (FPS) and …

Ce 534 Syllabus: Human Relations And Diversity, Marie J. Maher

Counselor Education Syllabi

The purpose of this course is to: (1) promote student growth and development through the learning and practice of basic communication and helping skills, (2) study cultural diversity as it relates to human relations and communications, (3) examine gender and sexual orientation in terms of human relations and communications, and (4) address human relations and communications as related to special populations (persons with disabilities, older adults, people living in poverty, children, diverse religious groups, etc.).

Ce 601 Syllabus: Foundations Of Counseling, Veronica Johnson

Counselor Education Syllabi

This introductory counseling course is designed to provide students with an orientation to the field of counseling. It will familiarize students with the assumptions, theories, strategies, applications, and ethical and legal considerations related to development in counseling. Students will be introduced to the core requirements and multicultural competencies necessary to becoming a counselor, the various employment opportunities and settings in the counseling profession, and the roles and functions of counselors in these settings. Central to this course will be an on-going self-evaluation of the students’ attitudes, values, interpersonal skills, and motives for choosing counseling as a potential profession. Threaded throughout …

Ce 650 Syllabus: Diagnosis And Treatment Planning, Jo Hittner

Counselor Education Syllabi

The purpose of this course is to introduce students to the etiology and classification of mental disorders as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM 5). Students will learn to utilize diagnostic information to facilitate the initiation and implementation of case management strategies, treatment plan development, and therapeutic intervention with people seeking/receiving mental health counseling services. Instructional methodology will include lectures, case studies presented in class, diagnosis and treatment planning activities using dyadic and small group activities, and other instructional modalities designed to facilitate the learning process.

Ce 680 Syllabus: Counseling Practicum, Jo Hittner

Counselor Education Syllabi

To enhance the counseling skills and conceptualization processes acquired through direct counseling experience, supervision and classroom interaction. The course is designed to prepare counselors for development as independent professional counselors. The evidence provided through the quality of the course requirements, demonstration of maturity, personal insight and professional presentation as appropriate to the counseling profession, will determine the course grade.

Ce 680 Syllabus: Counseling Practicum, Veronica Johnson

Counselor Education Syllabi

To enhance the counseling skills and conceptualization processes acquired through direct counseling experience, supervision and classroom interaction. The course is designed to prepare counselors for the upcoming internship experience and development as independent professional counselors. The evidence provided through the quality of the course requirements, demonstration of maturity, personal insight and professional presentation as appropriate to the counseling profession, will determine the course grade.

Cover, Denise Jacobson

Missouri Policy Journal

No abstract provided.

The Missouri Quality Jobs Program: Rearranging The Deck Chairs (And Throwing Some Overboard), Howard Wall

Missouri Policy Journal

According to the Missouri Department of Economic Development (DED), the Missouri Quality Jobs Program (MQJP) will create 118 new jobs by 2020 for each $1 million dollars in tax credits awarded under the program. The claimed sources of these job gains are the direct increase in employment at the firm receiving the credits, and indirect increases at other firms due to spinoff and multiplier effects. Unfortunately, the DED’s estimates for these effects are based more on faith than on evidence. First, the DED rather naively assumes that all of the job gains at the firm receiving tax credits occur only …