Climate Commons^™

Fear In The Forecast: Do You Believe The Government Controls The Weather?, Gabriella Bartsch

Honors Papers and Posters

Weather manipulation by the government is among the most widely believed conspiracy theories in America, with over 49 percent of Americans subscribing to this belief. As belief in weather-related conspiracies continues to gain traction, understanding the political and social factors that drive these beliefs becomes increasingly essential. In this study, data from the Chapman Survey of American Fears, a representative national sample of U.S. adults, as well as a qualitative content analysis of X/Twitter posts from 2020 to 2026, are used. This research examines how political partisanship and conspiratorial predisposition are reflected in media consumption and levels of institutional trust, …

Development And Evaluation Of An Mpas-Based Urban Modeling System For The New York City Region, Marco S. Yu, Kristian Rice

Publications and Research

Complex geometry and varying land cover make urban environments difficult to simulate accurately. This research presents a performance evaluation of the newly developed urban modeling system in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). Weather over the New York metropolitan area during June 2018 was simulated using supercomputing resources and the new urban modeling system. Modeled 2-m air temperature was compared with historical hourly observations from five NYC Mesonet stations, one located in each of the five boroughs. Comparison showed that the model follows the timing of warming and cooling well, but overestimates the magnitude of temperature swings at peaks …

2026 April - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main story of April 2026 was the hot and dry pattern that impacted Tennessee for most of the month and which was a continuation of this same pattern from March. Temperature anomalies across the state in April were slightly less than what we observed in March, but mean temperatures still ranged from 4-8°F above normal for April. Based on mean temperatures for the month, April 2026 was the warmest April on record in Knoxville’s 153-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 0.2°F) and Nashville’s 152-year weather history (beating out April 2017 by 1.2°F). April 2026 was …

2026 April - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Projections Of The Characteristics Of Extreme Precipitation In East Africa Using Bias-Corrected Cmip6 Models, Exavery K. Makula

Tanzania Journal of Science

In the context of ongoing global climate change, the intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to modify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events. Understanding how precipitation extremes will evolve under climate change is critical for East Africa (EA), a region highly vulnerable to hydroclimatic hazards and strongly dependent on rainfall-driven socioeconomic systems. The region experiences two main rainfall seasons, namely the long rains (March-May, MAM) and the short rains (October-December, OND). This study investigates future projections of the characteristics of extreme precipitation across the EA using an ensemble of biascorrected CMIP6 global climate models. Extreme …

2025-2026 - Tennessee Winter Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Seasonal and Annual Climate Summaries

No abstract provided.

2026 March 26 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Reconstructing 5000 Years Of Hurricane Activity In Holyrood Pond Using Sediment Core Analysis, Jamie Mclaulin, Arielle Nogueira, Elizabeth Wallace

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

Hurricanes are hazardous and costly events that annually negatively impact people that live in coastal areas in North America.  The current observational record of hurricanes is short (1970- present) and does not offer insight into the effects of climate change on hurricane frequency.  One method of improving and extending our observational record of hurricanes is to reconstruct paleohurricanes using sediment cores.  These cores record hurricane activity in the form of coarse-grained overwash layers that are deposited when hurricanes move sand from beaches into backbarrier ponds.  In this project, we analyzed sediment cores from Atlantic Canada to locate coarse-grained storm layers …

Best Integrated Writing Spring 2026 - Complete Edition, Wright State University School Of Humanities And Cultural Studies, Tracy Smith, Kristie Mckiernan

Best Integrated Writing

Best Integrated Writing includes excellent student writing from Integrated Writing courses taught at Wright State University.

Tornado Alley In A Changing Climate: The Eastward Shift, Kenny Reinhard

Best Integrated Writing

Reinhard argues that climate change is driving an eastward shift in Tornado Alley from the Great Plains toward the southeastern United States, increasing tornado frequency in more densely populated and less-prepared regions. It highlights how changing atmospheric conditions—such as increased moisture, instability, and wind shear—are contributing to this shift and emphasizes the need for improved preparedness and infrastructure in newly affected areas.

Quantifying Global Internal Displacement Risk At The Hazard-Vulnerability-Conflict Nexus, Wenzhao Li, Surendra Maharjan, Rejoice Thomas, Hesham Morgan, Ali Elgendy, Susan Mikhail, Hesham El-Askary

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study introduces a novel, diagnostic hazard-specific displacement risk index that integrates high-resolution hazard data with social vulnerability metrics and historical displacement records, uncovering overlooked compound risks in conflict areas and links between environmental stress and instability. Our methodology combines historical displacement records with environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic indicators to identify high-risk regions and quantify interactions between hazards and conflict across six major hazard types. Results reveal floods as the primary displacement driver, particularly in South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan) and Sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Ethiopia), where dense populations in flood-prone areas intersect with low socioeconomic resilience. Droughts disproportionately impact arid …

2026 April 23 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Bioclimatic Reorganization Of Carbon–Water–Energy Coupling Revealed By Eddy Covariance And Interpretable Machine Learning, Koong Yi, Margaret S. Torn, Gabriel B. Senay, Lixin Wang, Kosana Suvočarev, Joshua B. Fisher, Arman Ahmadi, Housen Chu, Gil Bohrer, Georgianne W. Moore, Stephen P. Good, Steven A. Kannenberg, Justine E. C. Missik, Kanishka Mallick, Kul Khand, Youngryel Ryu, Kuno Kasak, A. Christopher Oishi, David E. Reed, Xiangzhong Luo, Carl J. Bernacchi, Dennis Baldocchi

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Ecosystem exchanges of carbon, water, and energy are central to Earth system functioning, yet their sensitivities to environmental variability remain poorly constrained across biomes and climates. Here, we analyzed ≥ 5 years of eddy covariance data from 87 AmeriFlux sites (964 site-years) spanning six vegetation types and a broad range of climatic conditions to examine the controls and multi-year trends of gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency (WUE), and the Bowen ratio. We trained boosted regression tree ensembles with environmental (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, soil water content, atmospheric CO2, radiation, wind speed) and temporal (month, year) variables …

2026 March 19 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Water Sources And Livelihood Choices Among Pastoralist Households In Monduli District, Tanzania, Fredrick Alleni Mfinanga, Jacqueline Temba, Monica F. Timbuka

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

This paper investigates the association between types of water sources for livestock and livelihood choices of pastoralist households in semi-arid areas of Monduli District, Tanzania. Specifically, it aims to examine the influence of the types of water sources for livestock on livelihood diversification of pastoralist households. Using a mixed research methods approach, the data were collected from 367 households through three methods: surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions. The quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies and counts, and inferential statistics, Chi-square tests and correlation, while the qualitative data were analysed using content analysis. The findings revealed …

Constraints To Adopting Locally Based Innovation Systems In Adapting To Climate Change Impacts In Serengeti District, Tanzania, Donald Mwiturubani

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

Smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania depend mainly on rain-fed agriculture, which makes them vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This paper is based on a study conducted in Burunga and Musati villages in Serengeti District, Tanzania. The study employed a mixed methods approach; combining qualitative and quantitative methods. It involved 154 participants and employed household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions as data collection methods. The findings suggest that smallholder farmers in the study area are aware of climate change and do, indeed, develop, adopt, and use locally-based innovation systems that avert or minimise its impacts. Smallholder …

Ecomusicological Representation Of Climate Change And Environmental Sustainability In Selected Bongo Fleva Lyrics In Tanzania, Auson N. Wincheslaus

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

This article critically explores how Bongo Fleva’s lyrics engage with environmental themes; and the interrelationship between nature and culture in the context of the Anthropocene. The data were purposively sampled from YouTube via content analysis, from which 50 Bongo Fleva songs were listened to, and only 10 environmentally-themed songs were analysed. Then, the selected songs were subjected to transcription (from oral to written form), translation (from Kiswahili into English), and close reading and textual analysis. The close reading of the selected songs focused on the employed aesthetic and rhetorical strategies, such as anthropomorphism, symbolism, antithesis, apocalyptic tones, solastalgia, rhetorical questions, …

Ecosystem-Based Flood Disaster Risk Reduction In The Little Ruaha River Basin, In The Southern Highlands Of Tanzania, Mawazo Ghambi, Tiemo Romward Haule

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

Ecosystem-based approach that integrates floods and environmental risk management is believed to reduce flood disaster risk while providing socio-economic and environmental benefits to floodplain occupants. This study examined the socio-economic and environmental benefits of the ecosystem-based approach in managing flood disaster risk in the Little Ruaha River Basin in the southern highlands of Tanzania. The study involved 157 participants and employed the mixed research design to collect quantitative and qualitative data. Semi-structured interviews, in-depth interviews, direct field observation and Focus Group Discussions were used to collect primary data, whereas documentary review was used to collect secondary data. Findings revealed that …

Resilience Among Smallholder Irish Potato Farmers To The Impacts Of Climate Variability In Wanging’Ombe District, Tanzania, Timotheo Bilary Ngalaga, Digna Wolfram Mlengule, Jackson Raymond Sawe

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

This paper examines smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate variability, and their resilience in enhancing their capacity to adopt. The data was collected from 98 heads of households using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The methods of data collection included household surveys, focus group discussions (FGDs), in-depth interviews, and document review. The quantitative data were analysed using the IBM SPSS (Version 23), while the qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis. The findings indicate that 69.4% of respondents reported a decrease in rainfall, while 89.8% reported an increase and fluctuations in temperature over the past 29 years. Moreover, the findings …

Climate Change Vulnerability And Adaptation Pathways: Stakeholders’ Synergies In Building Climate Resilience In The Semi-Arid Area Of Central Tanzania, Helena Elias Myeya

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

This article examines the perceived effect of climate change on cereal crop production and the responses of various stakeholders aimed at enhancing the resilience of smallholder farmers in semi-arid areas of central Tanzania. A total of 366 household heads, 28 participants in focus group discussions (FGDs), and 8 key informants from Bahi and Kongwa districts in Dodoma, Tanzania, were involved in this study. Both quantitative and qualitative data were gathered through a structured interview schedule, FGDs, in-depth interviews, and documentary reviews. Descriptive statistics and content analysis were used to analyse quantitative and qualitative data, respectively. The findings indicate that smallholder …

Peruvian Pinniped Teeth Trace Element Data-Tracking Ecosystem Variabilites Through Trace Element Record Found In Peruvian Pinniped Dentin, Dimitrios Giarikos, Amy Hirons, Ally E. Sheehan, Radleigh Santos

SECLER Data

The South American sea lion (Otaria byronia; SASL) and the Peruvian fur seal (Arctocephalus australis; PFS) are apex predators within the Humboldt Current ecosystem, where population dynamics respond to both natural variability and anthropogenic pressures, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and coastal mining. This study quantified 18 trace elements (TEs) in canine dentin from both species collected at Punta San Juan, Peru using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to evaluate long-term environmental exposure. Because dentin is deposited incrementally, it preserves a chronological chemical archive reflecting ontogenetic shifts in diet and habitat use. Overall, TE concentrations were broadly similar …

2026 March 12 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Long-Term Variability Of Air Quality And Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Rice Crop Burning In Punjab During 2012–2020, Harsimranjit Kaur Romana, Dericks Praise Shukla, Ramesh P. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Punjab, India's primary rice and wheat production hub, has witnessed rapid expansion of paddy cultivation over the past two decades, driven by minimum support price incentives, changes in government policies, alignment of sowing with the monsoon season and the adoption of high-yielding varieties. This transition has intensified groundwater extraction and shortened the fallow period between rabi and kharif crop seasons, reducing the window between rice harvesting and wheat sowing, leading to widespread open-field burning of rice residue and recurrent post-monsoon air-quality deterioration across the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Despite numerous short-term or single-pollutant assessments, a spatially resolved, multi-pollutant and multi-decadal evaluation linking …

2026 March 3 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Automated Machine Learning For High-Resolution Daily And Hourly Methane Emission Mapping For Rice Paddies Over South Korea: Integrating Modis, Era5-Land, And Soil Data, Jiah Jang, Seung Hee Kim, Menas Kafatos, Jaeil Cho, Gayoung Yoo, Sujong Jeong, Yangwon Lee

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

Agriculture is a major global source of methane (CH4), and accurate emission estimates are essential for refining national greenhouse gas inventories and supporting climate-resilient policies. This study develops a high-resolution estimation framework for CH4 emissions from Korean rice paddies by integrating multi-source datasets, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5)-Land meteorological variables, and Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil properties. Using CH4 flux observations from four global rice ecosystems (Italy, Japan, South Korea, and USA), we constructed parallel daily and hourly machine learning models using an automated machine …

A Unified Methodological Framework For Generating Digital Twins Of Multi Class Uncrewed Systems (Uxs), Sai Raghava Pathuri

Shelby Hall Graduate Research Forum Presentations

No abstract provided.

2026 March - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

2026 March - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

It was a very warm and dry March across Tennessee, with temperatures 10°F+ above average for most parts of the state through the 1st, 2nd, and 4th weeks of March. Based on monthly mean temperatures, it was a top-5 warmest month on record for Memphis, Nashville, Oak Ridge, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and the Tri-Cities, and a top-5 driest month for Nashville. A strong cold front March 16-17 produced the first tornadoes of the year, in Middle Tennessee.   With warm and dry conditions, we've also seen areas classified by the US Drought Monitor as Abnormally Dry (D0) to Extreme Drought …

2026 February 26 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Monitoring Strategies In Cave Microclimate Studies, Nenad Buzjak, Dalibor Paar, Aurel Persoiu, Christos Pennos, Franci Gabrovšek, Valerija Rossi

International Journal of Speleology

Cave atmospheres are spatially confined but dynamical systems that influence subterranean ecosystems, geomorphological processes, registration and preservation of climatic signals in sedimentary archives, cultural heritage, and conservation management. Despite major advances in cave climatology, methodological approaches to microclimate monitoring remain fragmented and are in some cases still shaped by the long-standing assumption that cave air temperature simply reflects the mean annual surface temperature. This paper revisits that assumption and develops an experience- and literature-based methodological framework for cave microclimate research. Key terminology is addressed by distinguishing between cave climate, cave microclimate, and cave meteorology, and by situating microclimatic variability within …