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Full-Text Articles in Climate

Reconstructing 5000 Years Of Hurricane Activity In Holyrood Pond Using Sediment Core Analysis, Jamie Mclaulin, Arielle Nogueira, Elizabeth Wallace Mar 2026

Reconstructing 5000 Years Of Hurricane Activity In Holyrood Pond Using Sediment Core Analysis, Jamie Mclaulin, Arielle Nogueira, Elizabeth Wallace

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

Hurricanes are hazardous and costly events that annually negatively impact people that live in coastal areas in North America.  The current observational record of hurricanes is short (1970- present) and does not offer insight into the effects of climate change on hurricane frequency.  One method of improving and extending our observational record of hurricanes is to reconstruct paleohurricanes using sediment cores.  These cores record hurricane activity in the form of coarse-grained overwash layers that are deposited when hurricanes move sand from beaches into backbarrier ponds.  In this project, we analyzed sediment cores from Atlantic Canada to locate coarse-grained storm layers …


Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline, Michael Wehner, Thomas Fisher, Norou Diawara, Robert Lund Jan 2026

Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline, Michael Wehner, Thomas Fisher, Norou Diawara, Robert Lund

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Changes in tropical cyclone frequencies as the climate warms is a topic of significant current debate [1, 2]. There is no accepted theory of how tropical cyclogenesis might respond to a warmer ocean-atmosphere system as multiple controlling factors exist [3–7]. Anthropogenic warming of surface ocean temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations [8] increases the potential for tropical cyclogenesis [9–11]; however, realized cyclogenesis also requires an initial local disturbance [12–16] to develop. Most multi-decadal tropical cyclone permitting climate models (i.e. resolutions of 15-50km) exhibit frequency decreases in warmer climates, despite the increase in tropical cyclogenesis potential [17–25]. In this paper, …


A Composite Narxnn Approach To Photovoltaic Power Forecasting With Integrated Weather Inputs And Uncertainty Quantification, Denisse Urenda Castañeda, Sharmin Abdullah, Jackson Morgan, Honglun Xu, Michael Pokojovy, Tzu-Liang Tseng Jan 2026

A Composite Narxnn Approach To Photovoltaic Power Forecasting With Integrated Weather Inputs And Uncertainty Quantification, Denisse Urenda Castañeda, Sharmin Abdullah, Jackson Morgan, Honglun Xu, Michael Pokojovy, Tzu-Liang Tseng

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a major source of sustainable energy. Yet, their power output is highly sensitive to environmental variability, particularly solar irradiance, cloud cover, wind, and temperature. Accurate forecasting of PV power is essential for efficient grid integration and energy planning, especially in applications requiring reliable longer-term forecasting rather than one-step-ahead predictions. This study presents a PV power forecasting approach using Nonlinear Autoregressive models with Exogenous Inputs (NARX), integrating large-scale numerical weather historical data as exogenous variables. Although NARX models effectively capture temporal dependencies, they can become overly dependent on historical power values, reducing responsiveness to real-time weather changes. …


Efficient Preservation Of Old Methane-Derived Organic Carbon In Deep-Sea Surface Sediments, Rui Bao, Yangli Che, Mingzhi Liu, Naiyu Zhang, Yang Zhou, Lihua Dong, Shen Li, Owen A. Sherwood, Min Yu, Zongheng Chen, Shengxiong Yang, Nan Wang, Longhai Zhu, Jiawang Chen, Mutai Bao, Haoshuai Li, Luonan Chen, Weifeng Wu, Haiyue Ma, David J. Burdige Jan 2026

Efficient Preservation Of Old Methane-Derived Organic Carbon In Deep-Sea Surface Sediments, Rui Bao, Yangli Che, Mingzhi Liu, Naiyu Zhang, Yang Zhou, Lihua Dong, Shen Li, Owen A. Sherwood, Min Yu, Zongheng Chen, Shengxiong Yang, Nan Wang, Longhai Zhu, Jiawang Chen, Mutai Bao, Haoshuai Li, Luonan Chen, Weifeng Wu, Haiyue Ma, David J. Burdige

OES Faculty Publications

Methane released from the subseafloor is significantly attenuated during upward migration, yet the preservation of methane-derived organic carbon (OC) in global deep-sea sediments remains poorly understood. Here, we measured carbon isotopes coupled with temperature-ramped analyses on various methane seepage sediments. Our results reveal a correlation between the radiocarbon (¹⁴)C) content in deep-sea surface sediments and sulfate-methane transition depth. Notably, our findings suggest that a substantial amount of (¹⁴)C-depleted OC may originate from deep-seated methane and is efficiently preserved in surface seepage sediments. We propose that the efficient OC preservation is related to microbial-mediated aggregate formation at the seawater-sediment interface, where …


Diatom Community Response To High And Low Iron Upwelling Plumes In The California Current System, Sveinn V. Einarsson, Kimberly Powell, Claire Till, Tyler Coale, P. Dreux Chappell Jan 2026

Diatom Community Response To High And Low Iron Upwelling Plumes In The California Current System, Sveinn V. Einarsson, Kimberly Powell, Claire Till, Tyler Coale, P. Dreux Chappell

OES Faculty Publications

Diatoms are important primary producers, accounting for most of the oceanic production and carbon export relative to other photosynthetic eukaryotes. There are important differences among diatom species that enable them to proliferate in different environments. Some have nutrient storage capabilities or lower nutrient quotas suited for oligotrophic oceans. Bloom-forming diatoms are typically found in nutrient-rich coastal waters where they respond quickly to nutrient pulses and can influence biogeochemical cycling in the ocean after blooms. As many physiological differences affect biomass and export, it is important to better understand how physical and chemical parameters influence diatom community composition, especially in dynamic …


Modeling Upper Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics In Response To Interannual Sea-Ice Variability In The Western Antarctic Peninsula, Catherine R. Czajka, Jessica S. Turner, Sharon Stammerjohn, Heather H. Kim, Oscar Schofield, Benjamin T. Saenz, Scott C. Doney Jan 2026

Modeling Upper Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics In Response To Interannual Sea-Ice Variability In The Western Antarctic Peninsula, Catherine R. Czajka, Jessica S. Turner, Sharon Stammerjohn, Heather H. Kim, Oscar Schofield, Benjamin T. Saenz, Scott C. Doney

OES Faculty Publications

In the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), marine plankton dynamics are tightly linked to the interannual variability in environmental conditions, including phenological shifts in sea-ice seasonality. To explore these linkages, we use a 1-dimensional vertical ocean-ice-ecosystem model (KPP-Eco-Ice, or KEI) that simulates physical and ecosystem conditions at a continental shelf mooring location in the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program sampling grid. KEI allows for year-round examination of the ecosystem in a region where in situ observations on the shelf are limited to January. Comparisons are made between seasonal sea-ice retreat, mixed layer depth, primary productivity, and phytoplankton relative abundance, grazing, …


Contribution Of Non-Linear Internal Waves To Marine Net Primary Production Has Been Underestimated, Xiaoju Pan, Tung-Yuan Ho, George T. F. Wong, Jen-Hua Tai, Shoude Guan, Fuh-Kuo Shiah Jan 2026

Contribution Of Non-Linear Internal Waves To Marine Net Primary Production Has Been Underestimated, Xiaoju Pan, Tung-Yuan Ho, George T. F. Wong, Jen-Hua Tai, Shoude Guan, Fuh-Kuo Shiah

OES Faculty Publications

Field observations in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) indicate that elevated concentrations of chlorophyll a (Chl_a) associated with non-linear internal waves (NIWs) were more pronounced in the subsurface than at the sea-surface. At a given surface Chl_a, the vertically integrated Chl_a in an NIW-active area was 45% higher than that in an area where the NIW activities were minimal. As a result, net primary production (PPeu) estimated from surface Chl_a from remote sensing by using the current Chl_a-based PPeu model (e.g. VGPM) would have underestimated the true value by the same amount. If this correction is …


Autonomous Float Data Reveal Decoupled Trends In Chlorophyll And Stratification In The Indian Ocean, Marufa Ishaque, Sophie Clayton, John Klinck Jan 2026

Autonomous Float Data Reveal Decoupled Trends In Chlorophyll And Stratification In The Indian Ocean, Marufa Ishaque, Sophie Clayton, John Klinck

OES Faculty Publications

Recent studies have shown that the Indian Ocean is warming significantly, but how this warming impacts primary production is largely unresolved due to a relative lack of depth-resolved biological observations. In this study, we have used Biogeochemical-Argo data from 2013 to 2022, comprising over 9,000 individual profiles, to examine regional patterns and trends in depth-integrated chlorophyll, depth-integrated net primary production and stratification in the northern and Equatorial Indian Ocean. Our analysis shows that water column stratification is increasing in the majority of the study area, with the highest rate of increase observed in the western Bay of Bengal. At the …


Radical-Based Oxidative Pretreatment Enhances Biofuel Production From Lignocellulosic Biomass Via Hydrothermal Liquefaction, João Vitor Dos Santos, Louis C. Bondurant, Patrick G. Hatcher Jan 2026

Radical-Based Oxidative Pretreatment Enhances Biofuel Production From Lignocellulosic Biomass Via Hydrothermal Liquefaction, João Vitor Dos Santos, Louis C. Bondurant, Patrick G. Hatcher

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The sustainable production of biofuels from lignocellulosic biomass is a central goal in the transition to low-carbon energy systems. However, hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), a promising thermochemical conversion pathway, is constrained by the high oxygen content and complex aromatic structure of lignin, which lowers bio-oil quality. Here, we used a model system of brown-rot-degraded white oak (Quercus alba) to test whether radical-based oxidative pretreatment could enhance HTL performance by converting lignin into more aliphatic intermediates. Oxidation was performed under simulated Fenton conditions using fixed Fe(II) (60 ppm) and two hydrogen peroxide concentrations (3 and 8 M), resulting in extensive lignin depolymerization …


Twenty-One Years Of Global Atmospheric Chlorine Inventories From Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (Ace-Fts) Measurements, N. Raymond, P. Bernath, C. Boone, M. P. Chipperfield Jan 2026

Twenty-One Years Of Global Atmospheric Chlorine Inventories From Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (Ace-Fts) Measurements, N. Raymond, P. Bernath, C. Boone, M. P. Chipperfield

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

We present atmospheric chlorine inventories over 21 years (2004-2024) and five latitude bands (82-60°N, 60-30°N, 30°N-30°S, 30-60°S, 60-82°S) across altitudes from the surface up to 61 km. These inventories were calculated using the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) version 5.3 retrievals of the volume mixing ratios (VMRs) of 13 chlorine-containing species. Of these, five are product gases: HCl, HOCl, ClONO₂, COClF, COCl₂, and eight are source gases: CCl₄, CH₃Cl, CFC-11 (CCl₃F), CFC-12 ( CCl₂F₂), CFC-113 (CClF₂CCl₂F}), HCFC-22 (CHF₂Cl), HCFC-141b ( C₂H₃Cl₂F), and HCFC-142b (C₂H₃}Cl₂F). Where necessary, ACE-FTS data were supplemented with data from the TOMCAT 3-D chemical transport model, …


The Coral Microbiome Under Climate Change: Shifting Symbiotic Interactions, Katherine E. Parker, Kate M. Quigley Jan 2026

The Coral Microbiome Under Climate Change: Shifting Symbiotic Interactions, Katherine E. Parker, Kate M. Quigley

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Host–microbe symbioses are central to organismal health, yet these complex partnerships are often strongly shaped by the environment. Climate change is increasingly altering environmental conditions, disrupting the balance of host–microbe interactions and pushing them along a continuum from mutualism (both partners benefit) toward parasitism (one partner gains at the other’s expense). Reef-building corals provide a clear example of this vulnerability, as the coral holobiont, an ecological unit comprising diverse photosynthetic algal symbionts (Symbiodiniaceae) and other microbial partners, depends largely on these mutualistic interactions for nutrition, immunity, and stress tolerance. Increasingly, evidence suggests that under heat stress, the algal symbionts retain …


Decomposing Shadow Prices Under Climate-Driven Growth Scenarios: Insights From An Elk Herd Case Study, Ranjit Bawa, Drew Bennett, Wai Yan Siu, Bailey Kirkland, David Finnoff, Jacob Hochard Jan 2026

Decomposing Shadow Prices Under Climate-Driven Growth Scenarios: Insights From An Elk Herd Case Study, Ranjit Bawa, Drew Bennett, Wai Yan Siu, Bailey Kirkland, David Finnoff, Jacob Hochard

ODU Articles

Natural capital accounting provides a framework for integrating ecological processes with economic valuation, but the mechanics of shadow price formation often remain opaque to resource managers and policymakers. Using the Clarks Fork elk herd in northwestern Wyoming as a case study, we decompose the shadow price of natural capital into its ecological, economic, and institutional components. Population dynamics are estimated using a linearized Ricker model and projected forward using a logistic projection, incorporating climate-driven reductions in intrinsic growth rates. These ecological scenarios are linked to a shadow pricing formulation that explicitly accounts for marginal benefits, harvest policy responses, discounting, and …


Sea-Level Rise Adaptation And Collaboration In Polycentric Governance: A Comparison Of Three Regions, Francesca Vantaggiato, Mark Lubell, Matthew C. Nowlin, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Majid Shafiee-Jood Jan 2026

Sea-Level Rise Adaptation And Collaboration In Polycentric Governance: A Comparison Of Three Regions, Francesca Vantaggiato, Mark Lubell, Matthew C. Nowlin, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Majid Shafiee-Jood

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Adaptation to sea-level rise confronts coastal communities worldwide with a new set of collective action problems that require collaboration. When does collaboration result in concrete action for adaptation? To address this question, we combine the Ecology of Games and Collaborative Governance frameworks using a comparative analysis of three coastal regions in the United States. We leverage original survey data from the San Francisco Bay Area in California (2018, N = 878), the Tri-County (Charleston) Area in South Carolina (2022, N = 152), and the Hampton Roads region in Virginia (2023, N = 153), three regions that differ in terms of …


Drivers Of Phytoplankton Bloom Interannual Variability In The Amundsen And Pine Island Polynyas, Guillaume Liniger, Delphine Lannuzel, Sébastien Moreau, Michael S. Dinniman, Peter G. Stutton Jan 2026

Drivers Of Phytoplankton Bloom Interannual Variability In The Amundsen And Pine Island Polynyas, Guillaume Liniger, Delphine Lannuzel, Sébastien Moreau, Michael S. Dinniman, Peter G. Stutton

CCPO Publications

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) experiences both the highest ice shelf melt rates and the highest biological productivity in West Antarctica. Using 19 years of satellite data and modelling output, we investigate the long-term influence of environmental factors on the phytoplankton bloom in the Amundsen Sea (ASP) and Pine Island (PIP) polynyas. We test the prevailing hypothesis that changes in ice shelf melt rate could drive interannual variability in the polynyas' surface chlorophyll-a (chl a) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). We find that the interannual variability and long-term change in glacial meltwater may play an important role in …


On The Contribution Of The Gulf Stream To High Frequency Coastal Sea Level Variability, Tal Ezer Jan 2026

On The Contribution Of The Gulf Stream To High Frequency Coastal Sea Level Variability, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Long-term Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream (GS) variability were linked in past studies to coastal sea level (CSL) change along the U.S. East Coast - a weakening GS can lead to rise in CSL and increased coastal flooding. However, high frequency variability (HFV) in CSL is, in most cases, attributed to atmospheric weather events. This study is focused on HFV (intraseasonal variations with periods between similar to 1 week and similar to 2 months) in the GS and in CSL. First, wavelet and spectral analysis of observations of the Florida Current transport and CSL characterized the HFV in the data, …


Results Of The Second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (Isomip+), Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, Qin Zhou Jan 2026

Results Of The Second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (Isomip+), Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, Qin Zhou

CCPO Publications

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice …


Basal Melting Variability Of The Ross Ice Shelf From Mixing Ratios Of Simulated Water Masses (1993-2018) And Potential Climatic Drivers, Enrico Pochini, Andrea Bergamasco, Florence Colleoni, Manuel Bensi, Giorgio Budillon, Pasquale Castagno, Michael S. Dinniman, Pierpaolo Falco, Emanuele Forte, Vedrana Kovačević, Stefanie L. Mack Jan 2026

Basal Melting Variability Of The Ross Ice Shelf From Mixing Ratios Of Simulated Water Masses (1993-2018) And Potential Climatic Drivers, Enrico Pochini, Andrea Bergamasco, Florence Colleoni, Manuel Bensi, Giorgio Budillon, Pasquale Castagno, Michael S. Dinniman, Pierpaolo Falco, Emanuele Forte, Vedrana Kovačević, Stefanie L. Mack

CCPO Publications

Several water masses circulate under the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), the largest ice shelf in Antarctica, each causing basal melting with a specific spatio-temporal pattern. To investigate these patterns and their variability, we applied a mixing ratio analysis to simulated water masses from a new numerical ocean model of the Ross Sea. The simulation, which was run over 26 years (1993–2018) and which includes the RIS cavity, shows good agreement with seaborne and mooring observations. The total RIS basal melt rate is 90 Gt/yr on average, and is caused mostly by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) (68%), which enters the …


A Hybrid Cnn-Lstm Surrogate Model For Hyper-Resolution Spatiotemporal Flood Forecasting In Norfolk, Virginia, Yidi Wang, Jonathan L. Goodall, Chetan Kumar, Diana Mcspadden, Sergio A. Barbosa, Binata Roy, Ali Shahabi, Navid Tahvildari Jan 2026

A Hybrid Cnn-Lstm Surrogate Model For Hyper-Resolution Spatiotemporal Flood Forecasting In Norfolk, Virginia, Yidi Wang, Jonathan L. Goodall, Chetan Kumar, Diana Mcspadden, Sergio A. Barbosa, Binata Roy, Ali Shahabi, Navid Tahvildari

Data Science Faculty Publications

Study region

Norfolk, Virginia, United States

Study focus

Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features.

New hydrologic insights for …


Technological Interventions For Reducing Climate Change Impacts On Health: An Overview Of Future Possibilities, Sujatha Alla, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Bawa Singh Jan 2026

Technological Interventions For Reducing Climate Change Impacts On Health: An Overview Of Future Possibilities, Sujatha Alla, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Bawa Singh

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Globally, over five million deaths annually are attributed to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change, such as heatwaves, hurricanes, wildfires, droughts, and floods, which create health crises and economic losses. The 2015 Paris Declaration emphasized climate technology mechanisms, including research and development, to enhance resilience and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Biotechnological advancements have mitigated about 20% of economic losses since the 1960s, highlighting technology’s potential to address climate-induced health risks.


A Two-Stage Changepoint-Copula Framework For Non-Stationary Count Time Series: Application To Tropical Cyclones, Md Iqbal Hossain, Norou Diawara Jan 2026

A Two-Stage Changepoint-Copula Framework For Non-Stationary Count Time Series: Application To Tropical Cyclones, Md Iqbal Hossain, Norou Diawara

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Cross-basin tropical cyclone variability may exhibit complex, non-linear dependence structures influenced by large-scale climate modes and potential regime shifts. Reliance on traditional linear correlation measures without accounting for structural changes can therefore lead to misleading interpretations of global storm relationships. This study investigates the regional dependence structures of tropical cyclone counts across six major ocean basins (NA, ENP, WNP, NI, SI, and SP) from 1980 to 2024. We adopt a two-stage analytical framework integrating changepoint detection and copula modeling to address non-stationarity in both marginal distributions and dependence structures. First, we identify a significant structural break in the year 2000 …


Climate Change Impacts On Hydrology In The Upper James Watershed, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael Jan 2026

Climate Change Impacts On Hydrology In The Upper James Watershed, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Hydrological modeling of the Upper James Watershed (UJW), Virginia, is critical for predicting water availability, flood management, agriculture, ecosystem protection, and hydropower production under increasing climate change. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is applied to evaluate climate change impacts on key hydrological components within the watershed. Future climate conditions were assessed for the near (NF: 2026-2050), mid (MF: 2051-2075), and far (FF: 2076-2100) periods using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5. Climate data were bias-corrected using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM) and used to drive the HEC-HMS model. Results project …


Assessing Climate Change Impacts On Wildfire Risk In Central Appalachian Forests Of The Eastern United States, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael Jan 2026

Assessing Climate Change Impacts On Wildfire Risk In Central Appalachian Forests Of The Eastern United States, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Wildfire risk is increasing in the eastern U.S., yet spatial and climate-driven assessments remain limited. This study evaluates climate change impacts on wildfire risk in the Upper James Watershed (UJW) using baseline (2000–2019), near-future (2021–2040), and far-future (2061–2080) projections from a 12-model CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) ensemble under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. A wildfire risk model was developed in ArcGIS Pro using nine key factors and validated with MODIS hotspot data, showing good agreement between modeled risk patterns and observed fire occurrences (NOF = 0.21, RMSE = 4.20, MAE = 3.37). Baseline risk was primarily driven by land cover, fire-lookout …


Nature-Based Solutions For Urban Resilience And Environmental Justice In Underserved Coastal Communities: A Case Study On Oakleaf Forest In Norfolk, Va, Farzaneh Soflaei, Mujde Erten-Unal, Carol L. Considine, Faeghe Borhani Jan 2026

Nature-Based Solutions For Urban Resilience And Environmental Justice In Underserved Coastal Communities: A Case Study On Oakleaf Forest In Norfolk, Va, Farzaneh Soflaei, Mujde Erten-Unal, Carol L. Considine, Faeghe Borhani

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Climate change and sea-level change (SLC) are intensifying flooding in U.S. coastal communities, with disproportionate impacts on Black and minority neighborhoods that face displacement, economic hardship, and heightened health risks. In Norfolk, Virginia, sea levels are projected to rise by at least 0.91 m (3 ft) by 2100, placing underserved neighborhoods such as Oakleaf Forest at particular risk. This study investigates the compounded impacts of flooding at both the building and urban scales, situating the work within the framework of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). A mixed-method, community-based approach was employed, integrating literature review, field observations, and community …


Larval Crowding In Culex Pipiens Generates Cumulative Cascading Effects Under Changing Environmental Conditions, Sengul Talay, Zafer Sakaci, Michele C. Weigle, Bugrahan Regaip Kilinc, Jenah Parman, Holly Gaff, Deniz Sirin, Bulent Alten, Dennis Bente, Sirri Kar Jan 2026

Larval Crowding In Culex Pipiens Generates Cumulative Cascading Effects Under Changing Environmental Conditions, Sengul Talay, Zafer Sakaci, Michele C. Weigle, Bugrahan Regaip Kilinc, Jenah Parman, Holly Gaff, Deniz Sirin, Bulent Alten, Dennis Bente, Sirri Kar

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Density-dependent population regulation is a fundamental driver in the population dynamics of living systems, ensuring a balanced and sustainable maintenance in nature. It has been suggested that the adverse developmental and morphological effect of high larval density in container mosquitoes represents a significant limiting factor for population density, and the need to investigate this possible importance within the framework of field-based principles has been emphasized. This semi-field study, conducted under the natural thermal regime and using a natural population in Turkish Thrace, aimed to examine the effects of non-food-limiting larval density (crowding effect) in the mosquito species, Culex pipiens ( …


Global Characterization Of Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols By The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (Ace), Peter Bernath, Manish Bhusal, Michael Lecours, Chris Boone Jan 2026

Global Characterization Of Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols By The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (Ace), Peter Bernath, Manish Bhusal, Michael Lecours, Chris Boone

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol (SSA) is an important part of the Earth's climate system. SSA climate impact is determined in part by particle composition, which has been measured from orbit. The weight percent of sulfuric acid in SSA has been determined from atmospheric infrared transmittance spectra recorded with the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) in limb geometry using the Sun as a light source (solar occultation). The global average SSA composition varies from about 50 to 80 percent with lowest values during the Antarctic winter. Atmospheric extinction at a wavelength of 1 μm was included in the analysis to …


Performance Assessment And Design Improvements For An Urban Coastal Detention Basin Under Intensifying Rainfall Extremes, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Agyare Asante, Faeghe Borhani, Xixi Wang, Mujde Erten-Unal, Dalya Ismael Jan 2026

Performance Assessment And Design Improvements For An Urban Coastal Detention Basin Under Intensifying Rainfall Extremes, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Agyare Asante, Faeghe Borhani, Xixi Wang, Mujde Erten-Unal, Dalya Ismael

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Coastal urban areas are increasingly exposed to flooding driven by more frequent and intense rainfall events, rising sea levels, and expanding impervious surfaces. Norfolk, Virginia, a low-lying coastal city with aging stormwater infrastructure, faces heightened vulnerability to these hydrologic pressures. This study evaluates the hydraulic performance of an existing urban detention basin within the Edgewater–Larchmont catchment under 10-, 50-, and 100-year, 2-h design storms using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Simulations were conducted for both pre- and post-development conditions to assess changes in peak discharge, storage capacity, and water level dynamics. Results show that urbanization, …


The Impact Of Drought And Socio-Economic Factors On Attitudes Toward Immigrants In South Africa, Pamela Antwi-Nimarko Apr 2025

The Impact Of Drought And Socio-Economic Factors On Attitudes Toward Immigrants In South Africa, Pamela Antwi-Nimarko

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Estimates of the global migrant population have steadily increased, with current data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reporting approximately 281 million migrants worldwide. Alongside this growth, anti-immigrant sentiments have risen in many host countries. This study seeks to contribute to the research on attitudes toward immigrants by exploring climate-related factors, particularly drought, as a key influence.

Leveraging a unique dataset combining the World Values Survey (WVS) and Afrobarometer, the study examines how drought, along with individual and contextual factors, affects attitudes toward immigrants. This dataset allows for an in-depth analysis of the direct impact of drought on public …


Soft Law, Activism, And Climate Displacement: Rethinking International Protections For The Environmentally Displaced, Guljannat Huseynli, Andrea G. Brown Mar 2025

Soft Law, Activism, And Climate Displacement: Rethinking International Protections For The Environmentally Displaced, Guljannat Huseynli, Andrea G. Brown

Graduate Research Conference (GSIS)

Climate change is displacing millions of people globally, yet those forced to migrate due to environmental factors remain unprotected under existing international refugee law. This paper argues that legal recognition for climate refugees can emerge not through immediate treaty reform but through the evolution of soft law and norm creation. Drawing on constructivist theory, it examines how activism, international organizations, and legal precedents contribute to shifting global norms. Through case studies such as Ioane Teitiota v. New Zealand and the Fridays for Future movement, the paper shows how strategic litigation and advocacy can build momentum for future legal protections. It …


Radon And Radium Isotope Signatures On A Massive Ice- And Permafrost-Rich Coastline, Lauren Kipp, Gwénaëlle Chaillou, Markus Kienast, Joseph Tamborski, Dustin Whalen Jan 2025

Radon And Radium Isotope Signatures On A Massive Ice- And Permafrost-Rich Coastline, Lauren Kipp, Gwénaëlle Chaillou, Markus Kienast, Joseph Tamborski, Dustin Whalen

OES Faculty Publications

Rapid warming in the Arctic is degrading permafrost and massive ice deposits, which releases solutes previously trapped in ice and frozen soils into groundwater, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Radium and radon isotopes are enriched in groundwaters and may therefore have utility as tracers for the delivery of permafrost-derived solutes to the ocean, particularly if massive ice- or permafrost-derived meltwaters have a distinct isotopic ratio. The ratio of radium isotopes within massive ice deposits can also be used to constrain timescales of ice segregation, as the four isotopes will decay with known rates once removed from contact with sediments. Here …


The Effect Of Temperature And Salinity On Margalefidinium Polykrikoides Group Iii Va, Usa Strain Growth, Eduardo Pérez-Vega, Margaret R. Mulholland, Katherine E. Crider, Kimberly E. Powell, P. Dreux Chappell, Alexander Bochdansky Jan 2025

The Effect Of Temperature And Salinity On Margalefidinium Polykrikoides Group Iii Va, Usa Strain Growth, Eduardo Pérez-Vega, Margaret R. Mulholland, Katherine E. Crider, Kimberly E. Powell, P. Dreux Chappell, Alexander Bochdansky

OES Faculty Publications

Margalefidinium polykrikoides is a cosmopolitan dinoflagellate that blooms in coastal waters. Despite genomic evidence that it belongs to Group III and so closely related to isolates from Puerto Rico, Malaysia, North America, and Central America, M. polykrikoides blooms in the Chesapeake Bay at warmer temperatures and lower salinities than in coastal ecosystems occupied by its closest relatives. In this study, the effect of temperature and salinity on the growth rate and total cell yield of an M. polykrikoides VA culture isolate were examined and compared with environmental observations made during M. polykrikoides blooms in the Chesapeake Bay. M. polykrikoides group …