Climate Commons^™

Estimating The Probability Of Severe Convective Storms: A Local Perspective For The Central And Northern Plains, Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration: Technical Reports and Related Materials

Summary and Conclusions

A procedure to estimate probabilities of the occurrence of severe convective storms within local areas has been described. Probabilities were based on a simulated climatology and the relative frequency of severe convective events when a selected site was contained within an operational Outlook or Watch. Combined data from five local areas were used to develop a general model for local probabilities within the central and northern Plains region. Attachment of probabilities to specific products placed values within a framework familiar to both forecasters and "end-users." Application of results in an operational scenario demonstrated representative local probabilities and …

A Drought Watch System For Southeast Spain, Ramon Garrido Abenza

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

One of the main climatological characteristics of the region of Murcia (11,300 km2), located almost entirely in the Segura Basin (in southeast Spain), is the great temporal and spatial irregularity of its precipitation. Average annual precipitation values range between 200 and 500 mm, and coefficients of variation (CV) are high, with some values about 50%. It is a semiarid region (including a small arid area), and agriculture plays a major role in its economy. Because of this, drought is one characteristic of the region’s climate that has far-reaching consequences, from unemployment to social conflicts.

It is important to define drought …

Announcements: August 1999

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

Contents:

Disaster Management Workshops

National Workshop on Dynamic Crop Simulation Modeling

International Conference on Integrated Drought Management

15th Annual Conference on Contaminated Soils

2000 National Disaster Medical System Conference

Drought Follows The Deluge In Vermont, Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

The incidence of both drought and flooding on the Vermont landscape within the same calendar year is not an uncommon occurrence. The year 1998 was no exception, in that the ice storm of January and statewide flooding of June/July finally gave way to drought conditions as the year drew to a close. These dry conditions continued into late June/early July 1999, when a series of convective and frontal systems brought steady rainfall amounts that were helpful in reducing the surface moisture deficits. Hydrologic deficits, however, still existed in mid-July.

With the exception of the most severe events, which can span …

Low Temperature And Cold Drought Risks In Crop Production In Temperate Kashmir, Badrul Hasan, Ashok Kumar, A. A. Khan

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

Temperature plays a vital role in life processes and crop production. Physical and chemical processes within plants are temperature dependent; these processes in turn control biological reactions in crop plants. Temperature also plays a significant role in some aspects of crop physiological cycles: the diffusion rate of gases and liquids changes with temperature; the solubility of substances is temperature dependent; rapid progress occurs as a result of temperature increases; and the equilibrium and stability of various systems and compounds (including enzymes) is a function of temperature.

Air temperature at the screen level is one of the most important variables affecting …

From The Director: May-August 1999, Donald A. Wilhite

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

With increased understanding of El Niño and La Niña events and growing awareness of the wide range of potential impacts, as well as the increased reliability of seasonal climate forecasts for some regions of the world, there is growing interest in the use of climate information to help reduce risk for some weather-sensitive industries, especially agriculture. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) is currently involved in a project sponsored by the UNDP Office to Combat Desertification and Drought (UNSO) and the World Meteorological Organization, with additional support from NOAA and USAID. The next phase of this project will be a …

Enso’S Impact On The Occurrence Of Autumnal Drought In Iran, M. J. Nazemosadat

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

Recent extreme rainfall events and the frequent occurrence of worldwide droughts and their associated natural disasters (i.e., devastating bushfires in Australia, Indonesia, and Italy during 1997; the current severe drought in Iran) have increased the scientific community’s interest in the broad characteristics of rainfall variation and the potential for rainfall prediction.

On the basis of the Koppen climate classification (Ahrens, 1998), the Islamic Republic of Iran (Figure 1) is categorized as generally having arid (BW) and semiarid (BS) climates. This signifies that the annual precipitation is less than the potential annual loss of water through evapotranspiration. The occurrence of rainfall …

Fisheries Research Report No. 111 - Sea Temperature Variability Off Western Australia 1990 To 1994, Alan Pearce, Mark Rossbach, Marion Tait, Rhys Brown

Fisheries Research Reports

Analysis of temperature data from coastal waters between Shark Bay and Cape Mentelle has shown the main features of temporal and spatial variability in temperature along the Western Australian coastline. Three distinct periods of variability emerge: the annual cycle (peak temperatures generally in January-February and troughs in July-August), a few-day (weatherrelated) cycle, and the diurnal pattern.

Summer temperatures range from 24° C (South Passage) to 19° C (Cape Mentelle), and winter temperatures from 21° C (South Passage) to 16° C (Marmion). Mean annual temperature ranges (winter minimum to summer maximum) are between 3° C (South Passage) and 7° C (Alkimos), …

A Process Model Of Risk Communication: The Case Of Global Climate Change, Fiona Clark, Keith R. Stamm, Paula Reynolds Eblacas

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The authors describe a survey of public media use as it relates to different stages of awareness and concern regarding risk issues.

Crop Updates 1999 - Cereals, Len W. Broadbridge, Doug Abrecht, D. Bakker, Greg Hamilton, Cliff Spann, Doug Rowe, Peter Fisher, Jennifer Bignell, Matthew Braimbridge, Bill Bowden, Ross Brennan, Reg Lunt, Senthold Asseng, Cherie Rowles, Simon Bedbrook, Chris Gazey, Mike Bolland, Garren Knell, Lyn Abbott, Zed Rengel, Wayne Pluske, Erin Cahill, Bill Crabtree, Matthew Evans, Tim Nielsen, Jat Bhathal, Rob Loughman, D. Rasmussen, Roger A C Jones, Sean Kelly, Ian Riley, Sharyn Tayor, Vivien Vanstone, Dominie Wright, Debbie Thackray, Simon Mckirdy, George Yan, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay, Robin Mclean, Dean A. Diepeveen, Bill Lambe, Wal Anderson, Brenda Shackley, Mechelle Owen, Peter Burgess, Ben Curtis, Mohammed A. Hamza, Jamie Henderson, Frank Boetel, Alfredo Impiglia, Frances Hoyle, Darshan Sharma, Pierre Fievez, Blakely Paynter, Glenn Macdonald, Kevin Young, Andrew Blake, Keith Devenish, P J. Dolling, Roy Latta, Lisa-Jane Blacklow, Chris Matthews, Angelo Loi, Brad Nutt, Rochelle Mcrobb, David Webb, Andrew Mcrobb, Clinton K. Revell, James Ridsdill-Smith, Celia Pavri, David Tennant, Darryl Mclements, Ross Thompson, Mike Ewing, Tim Woodburn, Paul Yeoh, James Fisher, Art Diggle, Mark Whitten, Andrew Rate, Paul Carlile, Ed Blanchard, Bevan Buirchell, Lorraine Osborne, Tress Walmsley, Terry Piper, Cameron Weeks, Michael Dodd, Amanda Falconer, Caroline Peek, Glenn Adam, Camray Gethin, Richard Guinness, Daniel Fels, Andrew Rintoul, Mal Lamond, Roger Tapp, Craig White

Crop Updates

This article covers sixty papers

FOREWORD

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

PLENARY PAPERS

1. Western Australia’s climate: trends and opportunities, Len W. Broadbridge, Director, Bureau of Meterorology

2. Managing seasonal variations in agriculture, Dr Doug Abrecht, Director, Dryland Research Institute, Merredin

CROP ESTABLISHMENT

3. Soil management to prevent waterlogging on duplex soils in the Great Southern, D. Bakker, Greg Hamilton, Cliff Spann and Doug Rowe, Agriculture Western Australia

4. The influence of no-till and press wheels on crop production for heavy soils, Peter Fisher, Jennifer Bignell, Matthew Braimbridge, Greg Hamilton, Agriculture

Western Australia

NUTRITION

5. Fertiliser nitrogen, applied late, needs …

Announcements: February 1999

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

Contents:

International Symposium on High Altitude and Sensitive Ecological Environmental Geotechnology

5th International Symposium on Environmental Geotechnology and Global Sustainable Development

10th Global Warming International Conference & Expo (GW10)

New Book

Rainfall Climatology Of Jammu And Kashmir State, India, Badrul Hasan

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

We have written a number of articles on various aspects of weather characterization and forecast verification under temperate environments of Jammu and Kashmir (India). We have also touched on some of the approaches that might help in solving climatically triggered problems (Hasan and Kanth 1997). Fortunately, we were lucky enough to make significant progress in some (if not all) of the approaches. The present article focuses on an analysis of rainfall/ precipitation in this state of the Indian Union under different agroclimatic zones, with an update on forecast verification analysis of temperate Kashmir (India) during 1997–98.

India is classified into …

Using The Spi To Analyze Spatial And Temporal Patterns Of Drought In Turkey, Ali Umran Komuscu

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

Drought is a natural phenomenon that has significant economic, social, and environmental impacts. Drought differs from other natural hazards in that its onset and end are difficult to determine. It develops slowly, and its impacts may remain for years after termination of the event. No single definition of drought exists that applies to all circumstances, but most definitions of drought are based on an expression of deficiency of precipitation resulting in water shortage for some activity related to use of water (Wilhite and Glantz, 1985; Dracup et al., 1980). Water resources planners usually rely on quantitative indices to decide whether …

Heat Waves And Floods Across Asia: Was El Niño, Then La Niña The Cause?, R. H. Kripalani, Ashwini Kulkarni

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

Unprecedented heat wave conditions occurred during May–June 1998 across Asia. Unusually high temperatures were recorded in western India, Pakistan, eastern China, Japan, and Southeast Asia. Even the United States, western Africa, eastern Canada, and western Australia experienced the blistering heat spell.

Some reports blame people for the global warming. The world is warming because of the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, resulting in an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The 1998 heat wave prompted the United Nations Environment Programme to issue an urgent warning and a wakeup call to limit the emission of global warming gases. The …

Severe Droughts Becoming Recurrent, More Persistent In Mexico, Israel Velasco

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

During recent years, severe and extreme droughts in Mexico and their consequent water deficits have become more recurrent and persistent, according to historic records and the experiences of those who have lived through these events.

In Mexico, agriculture consumes more than 85% of the available water. When the available water is insufficient to satisfy agricultural requirements, impacts can be acute. In extreme cases, lack of water has caused severe economic, social, and environmental crises, and recovery from these crises has taken much time and money.

The regions that are most affected by drought have some common characteristics: they are the …

From The Director: February 1999, Donald A. Wilhite

Drought Network News (1994–2001)

Many of the readers of Drought Network News are familiar with the “hydro-illogical cycle” cartoon that I use frequently in presentations and publications. This illustration has been translated into many languages and serves as a constant reminder of the crisis management mentality often displayed in responding to drought emergencies and the proverbial “window of opportunity” following a drought when planning for the next event is of high priority. I hear comments routinely from government officials that recognize the need to plan, but they express hesitancy in moving forward now if water supply conditions are normal or above. The concern is …

Global Rural Temperature Trends, Thomas C. Peterson, Kevin P. Gallo, Jay Lawrimore, Timothy W. Owen, Alex Huang, David A. Mckittrick

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Using rural/urban land surface classifications derived from maps and satellite observed nighttime surface lights, global mean land surface air temperature time series were created using data from all weather observing stations in a global temperature data base and from rural stations only. The global rural temperature time series and trends are very similar to those derived from the full data set. Therefore, the well-known global temperature time series from in situ stations is not significantly impacted by urban warming.

Africa: An Integrated Curriculum Unit, Grades 2-4, Institute For The Development Of Gifted Education, Ricks Center For Gifted Children, University Of Denver

Ricks Curriculum Units Series

An integrated curriculum is an instructional approach that connects the disciplines to an underlying theme or topic. Immersing students in an integrated-thematic unit provides the backdrop for experiences to occur across the disciplines. Shaping coursework around integrated themes is especially appropriate for gifted students, however using an integrated-thematic curriculum is appropriate for all learners as it develops students' abilities to make connections, to solve problems by looking at multiple perspectives, and to integrate information from different fields of experience. An integrated-thematic curriculum permits students to be active participants in their own learning as they design their own explorations and take …

Statistical Analysis Of Climatic Variables In The Arkansas-Red River Basin, Felix Tendeku

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Surface meteorological data for the Arkansas-Red River basin are analyzed in order to provide statistical data for modeling and simulation of climatic trends within the basin. The variables studied are the ambient temperature, temperature range and precipitation. Daily and monthly mean values, spatial and seasonal variations, and frequency distributions are determined.

An Iron-Based Ecosystem Model Of The Central Equatorial Pacific, Carrie L. Leonard, Charles R. Mcclain, Ragu Murtugudde, Eileen E. Hofmann, Lawrence W. Harding Jr.

CCPO Publications

The central and eastern equatorial Pacific region is characterized by lower than expected phytoplankton biomass and primary production given the relatively high ambient nitrate concentrations. These unusual conditions have spawned several field programs and laboratory experiments to determine why this high nitrate-low chlorophyll pattern persists in this region. To synthesize the results from these field programs, as well as providing additional evidence in support of the iron hypothesis, we developed a one-dimensional, nine-component ecosystem model of 0 degrees N 140 degrees W. The model components include two phytoplankton size fractions, two zooplankton size fractions, two detrital size fractions, dissolved iron, …

Frontogenesis In The North Pacific Oceanic Frontal Zones--A Numerical Simulation, Michael S. Dinniman, Michele M. Rienecker

CCPO Publications

A primitive equation model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) MOM 2] with one degree horizontal resolution is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of frontogenesis in the subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) and the subtropical frontal zone (STFZ) of the North Pacific Ocean. The SAFZ in the model contains deep (greater than 500 m in some places) regions with seasonally varying high gradients in temperature and salinity. The gradients generally weaken toward the east. The STFZ consists of a relatively shallow (less than 200 m in most places) region of high gradient in temperature that disappears in the summer/fall. The high …

Decadal Variabilities Of The Upper Layers Of The Subtropical North Atlantic: An Ocean Model Study, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Numerical simulations of the Atlantic Ocean during the period 1950 to 1989, using a sigma coordinate, free surface numerical model, show long-term variabilities in the upper ocean subtropical gyre similar to those obtained from observations. The simulations show how westward propagating planetary waves, originated in the eastern North Atlantic, affect interdecadal variabilities of ocean properties such as the Bermuda sea level, the Gulf Stream position and strength, and subsurface temperature anomalies in the western North Atlantic. Special attention is given to the dramatic sea level drop at Bermuda in the early 1970s, which is accompanied by cooling of subsurface layers …

Monitoring The 1996 Drought Using The Standardized Precipitation Index, Michael J. Hayes, Mark D. Svoboda, Donald A. Wilhite, Olga V. Vanyarkho

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts are difficult to detect and monitor. Drought indices, most commonly the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), have been used with limited success as operational drought monitoring tools and triggers for policy responses. Recently, a new index, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), was developed to improve drought detection and monitoring capabilities. The SPI has several characteristics that are an improvement over previous indices, including its simplicity and temporal flexibility, that allow its application for water resources on all timescales. In this article, the 1996 drought in the southern plains and southwestern United States is examined using the SPI. A series …