Climate Commons^™

An Evaluation Of Current And Future Extreme Precipitation Events In The South American Altiplano Using Convective-Permitting Model Simulations, Karen R. Conron Chamberlain

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Extreme precipitation events in the South American Altiplano present significant hazards to communities in the Andean region, yet their future characteristics under anthropogenic climate change remain uncertain because of complex terrain and limitations of course-resolution climate models. This study evaluates the ability of South America Affinity Group Weather Research and Forecasting (SAAG-WRF) model with 4-km grid-spacing to reproduce 2000-2015 temperature, precipitation, and extreme precipitation events over the Altiplano. Examination of projected future changes is completed using the SAAG-WRF pseudo global warming (WRF PGW) simulation representing an approximately 3°C warmer global climate. The historical/control simulation (WRF CTL) was evaluated against DECADE …

On The Contribution Of The Gulf Stream To High Frequency Coastal Sea Level Variability, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Long-term Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream (GS) variability were linked in past studies to coastal sea level (CSL) change along the U.S. East Coast - a weakening GS can lead to rise in CSL and increased coastal flooding. However, high frequency variability (HFV) in CSL is, in most cases, attributed to atmospheric weather events. This study is focused on HFV (intraseasonal variations with periods between similar to 1 week and similar to 2 months) in the GS and in CSL. First, wavelet and spectral analysis of observations of the Florida Current transport and CSL characterized the HFV in the data, …

Basal Melting Variability Of The Ross Ice Shelf From Mixing Ratios Of Simulated Water Masses (1993-2018) And Potential Climatic Drivers, Enrico Pochini, Andrea Bergamasco, Florence Colleoni, Manuel Bensi, Giorgio Budillon, Pasquale Castagno, Michael S. Dinniman, Pierpaolo Falco, Emanuele Forte, Vedrana Kovačević, Stefanie L. Mack

CCPO Publications

Several water masses circulate under the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), the largest ice shelf in Antarctica, each causing basal melting with a specific spatio-temporal pattern. To investigate these patterns and their variability, we applied a mixing ratio analysis to simulated water masses from a new numerical ocean model of the Ross Sea. The simulation, which was run over 26 years (1993–2018) and which includes the RIS cavity, shows good agreement with seaborne and mooring observations. The total RIS basal melt rate is 90 Gt/yr on average, and is caused mostly by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) (68%), which enters the …

Autonomous Float Data Reveal Decoupled Trends In Chlorophyll And Stratification In The Indian Ocean, Marufa Ishaque, Sophie Clayton, John Klinck

OES Faculty Publications

Recent studies have shown that the Indian Ocean is warming significantly, but how this warming impacts primary production is largely unresolved due to a relative lack of depth-resolved biological observations. In this study, we have used Biogeochemical-Argo data from 2013 to 2022, comprising over 9,000 individual profiles, to examine regional patterns and trends in depth-integrated chlorophyll, depth-integrated net primary production and stratification in the northern and Equatorial Indian Ocean. Our analysis shows that water column stratification is increasing in the majority of the study area, with the highest rate of increase observed in the western Bay of Bengal. At the …

Historical Changes In The Seasonality And Variability Of Daily Surface Air Temperature In Era5 And Cmip6 Models, Zirui Wan

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This thesis investigates historical changes in the seasonality and daily variability of near-surface air temperature (Tas) during 1950–2024 using ERA5 reanalysis and simulations from 21 CMIP6 models. ERA5 and CMIP6 show broadly similar climatological structures of the Tas seasonal cycle and variability, with considerable inter-model discrepancies. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 show decreasing Tas variability over northern mid-high latitudes, while Tas variability increases in the low latitudes in ERA5 but changes little in CMIP6 multi-model mean (MMM) due to different change patterns among the models. To investigate the mechanisms of historical Tas variability changes, I analyzed the relationships between Tas variability …

Nature-Based Solutions For Urban Resilience And Environmental Justice In Underserved Coastal Communities: A Case Study On Oakleaf Forest In Norfolk, Va, Farzaneh Soflaei, Mujde Erten-Unal, Carol L. Considine, Faeghe Borhani

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Climate change and sea-level change (SLC) are intensifying flooding in U.S. coastal communities, with disproportionate impacts on Black and minority neighborhoods that face displacement, economic hardship, and heightened health risks. In Norfolk, Virginia, sea levels are projected to rise by at least 0.91 m (3 ft) by 2100, placing underserved neighborhoods such as Oakleaf Forest at particular risk. This study investigates the compounded impacts of flooding at both the building and urban scales, situating the work within the framework of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). A mixed-method, community-based approach was employed, integrating literature review, field observations, and community …

Resilient Built Environment: An Overview On Design Strategies For Coastal Adaptation To Sea Level Rise, Farzaneh Soflaei, Gelareh Abdolzadeh, Navid Ziaee, Mohammad Amin Jafari, Faeghe Borhani

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

This paper delves into the escalating risks faced by urban coastal communities due to tidal and storm flooding, exacerbated by climate change-induced Sea Level Rise (SLR). Projections indicate a potential increase in sea levels by at least 3 feet by 2100, with historical data revealing an average annual rise of 1.2-1.7 mm since the 1900s. With over 300 million individuals inhabiting coastal areas, low-lying regions emerge as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of SLR. This accelerated rise amplifies the significant challenge of nuisance flooding, a local-scale issue aggravated by high tide and winds, leading to inundation, road closures, infrastructure deterioration, …

Diatom Community Response To High And Low Iron Upwelling Plumes In The California Current System, Sveinn V. Einarsson, Kimberly Powell, Claire Till, Tyler Coale, P. Dreux Chappell

OES Faculty Publications

Diatoms are important primary producers, accounting for most of the oceanic production and carbon export relative to other photosynthetic eukaryotes. There are important differences among diatom species that enable them to proliferate in different environments. Some have nutrient storage capabilities or lower nutrient quotas suited for oligotrophic oceans. Bloom-forming diatoms are typically found in nutrient-rich coastal waters where they respond quickly to nutrient pulses and can influence biogeochemical cycling in the ocean after blooms. As many physiological differences affect biomass and export, it is important to better understand how physical and chemical parameters influence diatom community composition, especially in dynamic …

Modeling Upper Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics In Response To Interannual Sea-Ice Variability In The Western Antarctic Peninsula, Catherine R. Czajka, Jessica S. Turner, Sharon Stammerjohn, Heather H. Kim, Oscar Schofield, Benjamin T. Saenz, Scott C. Doney

OES Faculty Publications

In the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), marine plankton dynamics are tightly linked to the interannual variability in environmental conditions, including phenological shifts in sea-ice seasonality. To explore these linkages, we use a 1-dimensional vertical ocean-ice-ecosystem model (KPP-Eco-Ice, or KEI) that simulates physical and ecosystem conditions at a continental shelf mooring location in the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program sampling grid. KEI allows for year-round examination of the ecosystem in a region where in situ observations on the shelf are limited to January. Comparisons are made between seasonal sea-ice retreat, mixed layer depth, primary productivity, and phytoplankton relative abundance, grazing, …

Contribution Of Non-Linear Internal Waves To Marine Net Primary Production Has Been Underestimated, Xiaoju Pan, Tung-Yuan Ho, George T. F. Wong, Jen-Hua Tai, Shoude Guan, Fuh-Kuo Shiah

OES Faculty Publications

Field observations in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) indicate that elevated concentrations of chlorophyll a (Chl_a) associated with non-linear internal waves (NIWs) were more pronounced in the subsurface than at the sea-surface. At a given surface Chl_a, the vertically integrated Chl_a in an NIW-active area was 45% higher than that in an area where the NIW activities were minimal. As a result, net primary production (PP_eu) estimated from surface Chl_a from remote sensing by using the current Chl_a-based PP_eu model (e.g. VGPM) would have underestimated the true value by the same amount. If this correction is …

Remote Sensing Of Particulate Organic Carbon And Phytoplankton Carbon In The Northern South China Sea, Xiaoju Pan, Tung-Yuan Ho, George T. F. Wong, Jen-Hua Tai, Lijuan Nie

OES Faculty Publications

Surface concentrations of particulate organic carbon (POC) and phytoplankton carbon (C_phy) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) have been assessed successfully by remote sensing with appropriate regional tuning. Match-up comparisons between satellite derivations and field observations showed uncertainties of ± 28.5% for POC and ± 37.0% for C_phy. The satellite-derived climatological distributions are consistent with previous reports. In the open NSCS where phytoplankton growth is controlled primarily by the convective overturn, both POC and C_phy are higher in winter, associating with the effect of stronger northeast monsoons and surface cooling, than in summer, when …

Workshop Outcomes Report: 2nd International Workshop On Seismic Resilience Of Arctic Infrastructure And Social Systems, Majid Ghayoomi, Daniela Morganti

Faculty Publications

The report provides an overview of the second international workshop on Seismic Resilience of Arctic Infrastructure and Social Systems. The report discusses agenda, workshop activities, interdisciplinary working groups, and results. It ends with several strategic questions and investigation plans that were developed as part of the workshop activities.

Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline, Michael Wehner, Thomas Fisher, Norou Diawara, Robert Lund

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Changes in tropical cyclone frequencies as the climate warms is a topic of significant current debate [1, 2]. There is no accepted theory of how tropical cyclogenesis might respond to a warmer ocean-atmosphere system as multiple controlling factors exist [3–7]. Anthropogenic warming of surface ocean temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations [8] increases the potential for tropical cyclogenesis [9–11]; however, realized cyclogenesis also requires an initial local disturbance [12–16] to develop. Most multi-decadal tropical cyclone permitting climate models (i.e. resolutions of 15-50km) exhibit frequency decreases in warmer climates, despite the increase in tropical cyclogenesis potential [17–25]. In this paper, …

A Composite Narxnn Approach To Photovoltaic Power Forecasting With Integrated Weather Inputs And Uncertainty Quantification, Denisse Urenda Castañeda, Sharmin Abdullah, Jackson Morgan, Honglun Xu, Michael Pokojovy, Tzu-Liang Tseng

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a major source of sustainable energy. Yet, their power output is highly sensitive to environmental variability, particularly solar irradiance, cloud cover, wind, and temperature. Accurate forecasting of PV power is essential for efficient grid integration and energy planning, especially in applications requiring reliable longer-term forecasting rather than one-step-ahead predictions. This study presents a PV power forecasting approach using Nonlinear Autoregressive models with Exogenous Inputs (NARX), integrating large-scale numerical weather historical data as exogenous variables. Although NARX models effectively capture temporal dependencies, they can become overly dependent on historical power values, reducing responsiveness to real-time weather changes. …

Larval Crowding In Culex Pipiens Generates Cumulative Cascading Effects Under Changing Environmental Conditions, Sengul Talay, Zafer Sakaci, Michele C. Weigle, Bugrahan Regaip Kilinc, Jenah Parman, Holly Gaff, Deniz Sirin, Bulent Alten, Dennis Bente, Sirri Kar

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Density-dependent population regulation is a fundamental driver in the population dynamics of living systems, ensuring a balanced and sustainable maintenance in nature. It has been suggested that the adverse developmental and morphological effect of high larval density in container mosquitoes represents a significant limiting factor for population density, and the need to investigate this possible importance within the framework of field-based principles has been emphasized. This semi-field study, conducted under the natural thermal regime and using a natural population in Turkish Thrace, aimed to examine the effects of non-food-limiting larval density (crowding effect) in the mosquito species, Culex pipiens ( …

Global Evidence On Scaling Nature-Based Solutions For Compound Hazards, Sina Razzaghi Asl, Anahita Azadgar

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly promoted for climate adaptation to compound hazards, but systematic evidence of their effectiveness is still scarce. We address this gap with a systematic review of 38 studies. Each study was sorted by what its measurement design can support, not by what its authors claim. This produced four groups. Direct studies attribute a measured hazard reduction to the intervention, proxy studies infer protection from ecosystem condition, prioritization studies map suitable locations without estimating performance, and qualitative studies describe effectiveness without measuring it. We detect trends in geographic distribution, hazard combinations, intervention types, methodological approaches, and strength …

Hydroclimate Variability And Itcz Migration Over The Last Millennium Inferred From A New Speleothem Record In Central Colombia Using Paleo Data Assimilation, Derick Appiah Kubi

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Hydroclimate variability over tropical South America is strongly influenced by meridional shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), yet the spatial expression and dynamical controls of these changes during the last millennium remain poorly understood. This work investigates hydroclimate variability and ITCZ migration over the last millennium (850-1850 CE) using a new isotope-enabled data assimilation (DA) reconstruction made from a suite of speleothem δ¹⁸O records from the neotropics on both sides of the ITCZ. The reconstruction targets the March-August (MAMJJA) season in order to capture the rainfall regimes most relevant to central Colombia and northeastern Brazil. The focus on these …

2025 - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Incentives On Disaster Mitigation Behavior: An Age-Based Analysis, Wenqian He, Jeffrey Wickliffe, Zhen Cong

Health Sciences and Kinesiology Faculty Articles

Background

As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of natural disasters are increasing. However, most individuals cannot get sufficient protective measures due to financial pressure or environmental barriers. This study aims to examine how different incentives influence people’s willingness to take mitigation behavior. Methods

Data were collected from 781 tornado survivors in Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee, as part of the ‘Vulnerability and Resilience to Disasters’ project. Participants were randomly assigned to 12 conditions based on cost coverage ratios (25%, 50%, 75%), improvement types (storm shelters, structural reinforcement), and incentive forms (cash rebates, insurance discounts). Multivariate logistic regression models were …

2025 - Tennessee Annual Climate Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Excerpt: 

The mean (average) temperature for 2025 across Tennessee was a bit warmer than normal for most of the state, with the majority of areas reporting temperatures that were 1-2°F above the 1991-2020 NOAA climate normals, with some areas, mostly in the northeastern section of the state within one degree of normal. However, there were a lot of temperature swings throughout the year with below normal temperatures for most regions of the state in January, July, August, and November, while well above normal temperatures were observed in parts of the state in February, April, May, and June [...]

2025 December 31 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

2025 December 25 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Green Nudging: Psychology Facilitates Environmental Protection And Climate Policy, Fuming Xu, Anning Liu, Xinjing Li

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Environmental pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and global warming are the major realities threatening all mankind today, urging all countries in the world to take immediate actions to protect the environment, save energy, reduce emissions, and curb global warming. In practice, it is difficult to completely solve these urgent problems by relying only on laws and regulations, administrative orders and other coercive means, as well as incentives such as monetary incentives. Hence, it is necessary to use the results of relevant research in psychology and behavioral sciences to facilitate environmental protection, energy conservation, and climate policy, and to play an important …

How Has Your Climate Changed?, Rhyannon Bartlett-Imadegawa

Capstones

This interactive data visualization shows readers how much the climate has changed in their home state compared to 100 years ago, since the reader was born, the current year and projections into the future. It aims to communicate climate change impacts more personally by linking it to seasons, the reader's birth year and age mile stones and compares a readers' home state to a state that has been more impacted to connect across different states and communities.

Using JavaScript and Svelte, the code calculates and displays seasonal averages for the baseline period for the reader's state and years for the …

How Does Vertical Hydroponic Farming Compare To Traditional Soil Farming In Terms Of Crop Yield, Energy Efficiency, And Cost?, Grace Morgan, Grace Henry, Rebecca Meenach, Jeana Odom

Student Scholar Symposium

Vertical hydroponics (hydro “water;” ponics “labor”) is a method of year-round farming that uses water in place of soil and supplies vegetables’ nutrients in a space-efficient setting. It dates back to 500 BC when it was used in the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, a wonder of the ancient world. Thousands of years later, vertical hydroponics has expanded across the globe to supply leafy greens, herbs, and grains. It is typically implemented in dense urban environments where green space is hard to come by as a form of sustainable farming. Our research seeks to answer the question “How does vertical hydroponic …

2025 December 18 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Indigenizing Aquaculture: In Pursuit Of An Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture System For Enhanced Self-Sufficiency In Akaroa Harbour, Aotearoa New Zealand, Cali R. Trainor

Capstone Collection

This study assessed the feasibility of integrating two pre-existing aquaculture activities in Akaroa Harbour, Aotearoa New Zealand into an integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) system. The cultivation of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) presents an opportunity to improve the sustainability of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) farming by introducing alternative food sources for salmon, which can be used to produce fish feed locally, enhancing the self-sufficiency of the community and boosting the holistic efficiency of the system. Macroinvertebrates residing in giant kelp wrack were collected, identified, and quantified to determine if any of the Macrocystis-associated specimens could serve as …

Reconstructing Central American Hydroclimate Changes Across Time From Isotopic Signatures In Modern And Paleo-Rainfall Records, Giuseppe Lucia

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Tropical monsoon rainfall is a key component of Earth’s climate system and supports the livelihood and economy of billions of people. Yet, projections of future monsoons remain highly uncertain, particularly in regions with distinct physiography and complex land-ocean-atmosphere interactions like Central America, where long and continuous high-resolution paleoclimate data to test climate model simulations are still limited. This series of studies aims to reconstruct monsoon dynamics and underlying forcing controls in Central America on multiple timescales by the analysis and integration of stable isotope data in modern and paleo-rainfall records from Guatemala.

In Chapter 2, I present a daily-resolution, two-year-long …

2025 December 11 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Understanding Enso Through Mathematical Models, Maria I. Sanchez Muniz

Open Educational Resources

This assignment introduces students to conceptual models of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and guides them through a structured investigation of their physical and mathematical foundations. Students analyze the recharge–oscillator and delayed–oscillator frameworks, explore how differential equations capture ocean–atmosphere interactions, and evaluate parameter-driven changes in oscillatory behavior. A key component of the work is the guided use of generative AI as a research tool: students employ AI models to locate peer-reviewed literature, interrogate model extensions, and refine their understanding of complex mechanisms, while synthesizing all final explanations in their own words. By blending classical climate modeling with modern AI-supported inquiry, …