Climate Commons^™

Utilizing Objective Drought Severity Thresholds To Improve Drought Monitoring, Zachary T. Leasor, Steven M. Quiring, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a prominent climatic hazard in the south-central United States. Drought severity is frequently classified using the categories established by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). This study evaluates whether the thresholds for the standardized precipitation index (SPI) used by the USDM accurately classify drought severity. This study uses the SPI based on PRISM precipitation data from 1900 to 2015 to evaluate drought severity in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The results show that the fixed SPI thresholds for the USDM drought categories may lead to a systematic underestimation of drought severity in arid regions. To address this issue, objective drought …

A Design For A Sustained Assessment Of Climate Forcing And Feedbacks Related To Land Use And Land Cover Change, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

L and use and land cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in the climate system. Many studies have documented the impacts of LULCC on local, regional, and global climate. The National Climate Assessment Report (Melillo et al. 2014) identifies LULCC as a “cross cutting” issue of future climate change studies. This report, and the previous U.S. Climate Change Science Program strategic plan (2003), noted that land use and land cover (LULC) and its feedback is an important source of uncertainty within the climate system (Melillo et al. 2014). As a result, the report calls for a better understanding of …

Critical Analysis Of The Value Of Drought Information And Impacts On Land Management And Public Health, Tingting Liu, Kelly Helm Smith, Richard Krop, Tonya Haigh, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper reviews previous efforts to assign monetary value to climatic or meteorological information, such as public information on drought, climate, early warning systems, and weather forecast information. Methods and tools that have been explored to examine the benefits of climatic and meteorological information include the avoided cost, contingent valuation, choice experiments, benefit transfer, and descriptive approaches using surveys. The second part of this paper discusses specific considerations related to valuing drought information for public health and the Bureau of Land Management. We found a multitude of connections between drought and the land management and health sectors in the literature. …

Using Climate To Explain And Predict West Nile Virus Risk In Nebraska, Kelly Smith, Andrew Tyre, Jeff Hamik, Michael Hayes, Yuzhen Zhou, Li Dai

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

We used monthly precipitation and temperature data to give early warning of years with higher West Nile Virus (WNV) risk in Nebraska. We used generalized additive models with a negative binomial distribution and smoothing curves to identify combinations of extremes and timing that had the most influence, experimenting with all combinations of temperature and drought data, lagged by 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. We fit models on data from 2002 through 2011, used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best‐fitting model, and used 2012 as out‐of‐sample data for prediction, and repeated this process for each successive year, …

Droughtscape, Winter 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

4th quarter climate summary

2019 year in review summary

4th quarter drought impact summary

2019 drought impact summary

New form helps ‘see more’ drought

Landscape photographers invited to submit photos

Helping Central and South America planning

Database includes more drought planning

Umphlett Qci Dec 2019, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Agriculture

Energy

Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

A Technical Overview Of The Kentucky Mesonet, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Stuart Foster, Andrew Quilligan

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The Kentucky Mesonet is a research-grade weather and climate observing network with redundant sensors that monitors the near-surface atmosphere at 71 locations across Kentucky. The network measures temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and wind speed and direction every 5 min, with soil moisture and soil temperature measured every 30 min. In addition, it operates a camera at selected locations. All observations are transmitted via cellular modem every 5 min and become available to the general public through the World Wide Web within seconds after arrival at Kentucky Mesonet’s Network Operations Center. In between arriving at the IT …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Delayed/Prevented Planting

Forage Production

Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

An Estimation Of Lower Tropospheric Mixing Derived From Inverse Modeling Of Boundary Layer Water Vapor Isotopologues On Graciosa Island, Azores, Jacquelyn M. Delp

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Recent studies have shown water vapor isotopologues to be sensitive tracers of mixing processes that govern low-cloud feedback in climate models. In this study, we develop an inverse model (MBL Mix inverse model) that uses one year of isotope and humidity observations from Graciosa Island, Azores to estimate mixing for four seasons. We show the dry end-member of the model, the lower free troposphere (LFT), can be represented using Rayleigh fractionation. Isotope observations from Graciosa Island are compared to other field locations to discuss controls on isotopic variability other than mixing. Output from the MBL Mix inverse model shows the …

Drought Analyses Of The Horn´E PoˇZitavie Region (Slovakia) In The Period 1966–2013, Jaroslav Vido, Paulina Nalevankova, Jan Valach, Zbysek Sustek, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

+is study focuses on the characterization of historical drought occurrences in the Horn´e Poˇzitavie region of Slovakia over the period 1966–2013 using Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Trend analyses were evaluated by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test as well as cumulative sum of rank difference (CRD) test. +e results showed that drought occurs in the region regularly (recurrent climate feature), while the trend analysis indicated the trend toward more arid climatic conditions. However, CRD trend analyses showed that the subtrend changed direction toward less drier conditions in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Analyses of SPEI trends in individual months showed a …

Evaluating Future Reservoir Storage In The Rio Grande Using Normalized Climate Projections And A Water Balance Model, Nolan T. Townsend

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

We develop and implement new tools for assessing the future of surface water supplies in downstream reaches of the Rio Grande, for which Elephant Butte Reservoir is the major storage reservoir. First, a normalization procedure is developed to adjust natural Rio Grande streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches. The normalization accounts for upstream anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model, thereby yielding downstream flows closer to observed values and more appropriate for use in assessments of future flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on …

An Estimation Of Lower Tropospheric Mixing Derived From Inverse Modeling Of Boundary Layer Water Vapor Isotopologues On Graciosa Island, Azores, Jacquelyn M. Delp

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Recent studies have shown water vapor isotopologues to be sensitive tracers of mixing processes that govern low-cloud feedback in climate models. In this study, we develop an inverse model (MBL Mix inverse model) that uses one year of isotope and humidity observations from Graciosa Island, Azores to estimate mixing for four seasons. We show the dry end-member of the model, the lower free troposphere (LFT), can be represented using Rayleigh fractionation. Isotope observations from Graciosa Island are compared to other field locations to discuss controls on isotopic variability other than mixing. Output from the MBL Mix inverse model shows the …

Droughtscape, Fall 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Quarterly drought summary

Quarterly drought impacts

Ranchers delayed response to drought

Drought Monitor celebrates 20 years

Drought Monitor state impact tables

Directorcontributesto U.N.droughtproject

Updated Drought Risk Atlas

New fact sheet lists recovery resources

Droughtscape, Summer 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Quarterly drought summary

Quarterly drought impacts

NDMC welcomes African visitors

Ready for Drought game debuts

U.S. Virgin Islands added to USDM

Australian programmer visits NDMC

Upcoming events

Partnerships with NDMC extended

Investigation Of Grace-Derived Information On Forest Drought Stress Across The Contiguous Us, Beichen Zhang

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This research derives z-score monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomalies and z-score monthly root zone soil moisture (RZSM) anomalies from products of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Data Assimilation (GRACE-DA). Z-score monthly GWS and RZSM anomalies are compared to two drought indicators: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the usefulness of GRACE-DA information to detect drought conditions at tree-ring sites. This study also compares z-score monthly GWS and RZSM anomalies with the Tree Ring Standardized Growth Index (TRSGI) that is resampled by bootstrapping to investigate the capability of monitoring forest drought stress. Finally, this research uses …

Umphlett Qci June 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture Conditions

Delayed/Prevented Planting

Impacts to Cattle

Damage to Infrastructure

Temperature

Precipitation

Next-Generation Rainfall Idf Curves For The Virginian Drainage Area Of Chesapeake Bay, Xixi Wang, Xiaomin Yang, Zhaoyi Cai

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Probability-based intensity-duration-frequency IDF curves are needed but currently lacking for Department of Defense DoD to construct and manage its infrastructure in changing climate. The objectives of this project were to 1 develop an innovative approach for considering rainfall non-stationarity in developing such IDF curves and 2 apply this approach to the state of Virginia. In this regard, the observed data on 15-min rainfall at 57 gauges and the precipitations projected by twelve pairs of Regional Climate Model RCM and Global Circulation Model GCM were used. For a given gauge or watershed, in terms of fitting the empirical exceedance probabilities, a …

Assessment Of Agricultural Drought Considering The Hydrological Cycle And Crop Phenology In The Korean Peninsula, Chul-Hee Lim, Seung Hee Kim, Jong Ahn Chun, Menas Kafatos, Woo-Kyun Lee

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Hydrological changes attributable to global warming increase the severity and frequency of droughts, which in turn affect agriculture. Hence, we proposed the Standardized Agricultural Drought Index (SADI), which is a new drought index specialized for agriculture and crops, and evaluated current and expected droughts in the Korean Peninsula. The SADI applies crop phenology to the hydrological cycle, which is a basic element that assesses drought. The SADI of rice and maize was calculated using representative hydrological variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) of the crop growing season. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of SADI, the three-month Standardized Precipitation Index, which …

Development Of Digital Bathymetry Maps For Lakes Azuei And Enriquillo Using Sonar And Remote Sensing Techniques, Michael Piasecki, Mahrokh Moknatian, Fred Moshary, Jorge Gonzalez

Publications and Research

This article presents an improved algorithm for optimization and development of a digital bathymetric model (DBM) for Lake Azuei (LA) (Haiti) and Lake Enriquillo (LE) (Dominican Republic) using the ANUDEM method. Both sonar data and contour lines of the lakes’ layout extracted using Landsat imagery were compiled for bathymetry development. We show that the performance of the ANUDEM method was strongly dependent on the density and irregularity of the spatial distribution of the data. Changing the resolution of the output grids and deriving auxiliary topographically corrected contours improved the ANUDEM performance and minimized the systematic errors of the method. Statistical …

Establishing Relationships Between Drought Indices And Wildfire Danger Outputs: A Test Case For The California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System, Daniel J. Mcevoy, Mike Hobbins, Timothy J. Brown, Kristin Vander Molen, Tamara Wall, Justin L. Huntington, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Relationships between drought indices and fire danger outputs are examined to (1) incorporate fire risk information into the National Integrated Drought Information System California–Nevada Drought EarlyWarning System and (2) provide a baseline analysis for application of drought indices into a fire risk management framework. We analyzed four drought indices that incorporate precipitation and evaporative demand (E0) and three fire indices that reflect fuel moisture and potential fire intensity. Seasonally averaged fire danger outputs were most strongly correlated to multi-scalar drought indices that use E0 (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) at approximately annual …

“In Principle” Versus “In Reality”: Assessing The Potential Of Adaptive Urban Governance Toward Urban Flooding In Ho Chi Minh City’S District 7, Cindy Pham Nguyen

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Flooding has become the new normal in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During the rainy season, many areas of the city experience severe inundation that seriously impacts infrastructure, traffic, and economic transactions. As the effects of climate change unpredictably and rapidly manifest in Southern Vietnam, the frequency and impact of urban floods are projected to increase. In addition, within the last few decades, HCMC has rapidly developed and urbanized, transforming itself into the economic center of Southern Vietnam. However, previous studies and international experts have determined that rapid, poor development may be exacerbating urban flood issues.

In recent years, city …

Droughtscape, Spring 2019, Cory Matteson

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the Director

Wet and cool conditions bring drought relief to the West

Notable numbers from Q1

Drought impact summary, 1st quarter 2019

New research examines drought effects on state recreation areas

At Ethiopian space science workshop, NDMC climatologist sees promise in preparing for drought

U.S.- affiliated Pacific Islands now part of U.S. Drought Monitor

Water conservation tips for drought, flood and other disasters

Upcoming events

Earth Observation And Climate Services For Food Security And Agricultural Decision Making In South And Southeast Asia, Faisal M. Qamer, Tsegaue Tadesse, Mir Matin, Walter L. Ellenburg, Benjamin Zaitchik

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Deliberations on new developments in the use of Earth observation for agriculture and food security in South and Southeast Asia gathered 120 participants to discuss i) agricultural and hydrological drought monitoring and early warning systems, ii) crop mapping and yield estimation, and iii) risk financing and agrometeorological advisory services.

Umphlett Qci March 2019, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Plains Snowpack

Agriculture

Energy

Transportation

Temperature

Precipitation

Building A High-Resolution Vegetation Outlook Model To Monitor Agricultural Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

To reduce the impacts of drought, developing an integrated drought monitoring tool and early warning system is crucial and more effective than the crisis management approach that is commonly used in developing countries like Ethiopia. The overarching goal of this study was to develop a higher-spatial-resolution vegetation outlook (VegOut-UBN) model that integrates multiple satellite, climatic, and biophysical input variables for the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin. VegOut-UBN uses current and historical observations in predicting the vegetation condition at multiple leading time steps of 1, 3, 6, and 9 dekades. VegOut-UBN was developed to predict the vegetation condition during the main …

Assessing The Evolution Of Soil Moisture And Vegetation Conditions During A Flash Drought–Flash Recovery Sequence Over The South-Central United States, Jason A. Otkin, Yafang Zhong, Eric D. Hunt, Jeff Basara, Mark Svoboda, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study examines the evolution of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, vegetation, and atmospheric conditions during an unusual flash drought–flash recovery sequence that occurred across the south-central United States during 2015. This event was characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification (flash drought) during late summer that was terminated by heavy rainfall at the end of October that eliminated the extreme drought conditions over a 2-week period (flash recovery). A detailed analysis was performed using time series of environmental variables derived from meteorological, remote sensing, and land surface modeling datasets. Though the analysis revealed a similar progression of cascading effects in …

Soil Moisture Monitoring Using Remote Sensing Data And A Stepwise-Cluster Prediction Model: The Case Of Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Yibeltal Yigrem

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, a residual soil moisture prediction model was developed using the stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) and model prediction approach in the Upper Blue Nile basin. The SCA has the advantage of capturing the nonlinear relationships between remote sensing variables and volumetric soil moisture. The principle of SCA is to generate a set of prediction cluster trees based on a series of cutting and merging process according to a given statistical criterion. The proposed model incorporates the combinations of dual-polarized Sentinel-1 SAR data, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and digital elevation model as input parameters. In this regard, two …

Socioecological Determinants Of Drought Impacts And Coping Strategies For Ranching Operations In The Great Plains, Tonya Haigh, Walter H. Schacht, Cody L. Knutson, Alexander J. Smart, Jerry Volesky, Craig R. Allen, Michael Hayes, Mark E. Burbach

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In Great Plains rangelands, drought is a recurring disturbance. Ranchers in this region expect to encounter drought but may not be adequately prepared for it. Efforts to encourage drought preparednesswould benefit froma better understanding of the conditions under which managers make decisions to minimize the impacts of drought.We tested the direct andmoderating roles of the drought hazard and the social-ecological context on drought impacts and response. This study was conducted with ranchers in western and central South Dakota and Nebraska following the drought that began in 2012. We surveyed ranchers regarding the effects of the drought and their responses and …

Ua66/8/2 Ogden College Of Science & Engineering Geography & Geology Centers & Institutes, Wku Archives

WKU Archives Collection Inventories

Records created by and about Centers and Institutes administered by the Geography & Geology Department. Including:

• Center for Cave & Karst Studies
• Center for Local Government Services
• Hoffman Environmental Research Institute
• Kentucky Climate Center
• Resources Management Institute
• Small Public Water System Technology Center

Carbon Dioxide Measurement In Irish Blanket Peatlands: An Assessment Of Pool-Soil Flux Variability, Mariya Radomski, Alan Gilmer, Vivienne Byers, Eugene Mcgovern

Articles

Peatlands have been recognised as having a significant role in the mediation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels with direct implications for global climate change. Longitudinal in situ measurement systems for CO2 concentrations in blanket peatland ecosystems are difficult to implement where the nature of terrestrial–aquatic connectivity and hydrodynamics have a significant effect on the carbon cycle. The need for greater data on CO2 concentrations and flux monitoring in these settings has been well recognised. However, applying the most appropriate monitoring approach presents a special challenge. This paper sets out the development of a direct method for field based longitudinal …