Climate Commons^™

Constraining 20th‐Century Sea‐Level Rise In The South Atlantic Ocean, Thomas Frederikse, Surendra Adhikari, Tim J. Daley, Sönke Dangendorf, Roland Gehrels, Felix Landerer, Marta Marcos, Thomas L. Newton, Graham Rush, Aimée B.A. Slangen, Guy Wöppelmann

OES Faculty Publications

Sea level in the South Atlantic Ocean has only been measured at a small number of tide-gauge locations, which causes considerable uncertainty in 20th-century sea-level trend estimates in this basin. To obtain a better-constrained sea-level trend in the South Atlantic Ocean, this study aims to answer two questions. The first question is: can we combine new observations, vertical land motion estimates, and information on spatial sampling biases to obtain a likely range of 20th-century sea-level rise in the South Atlantic? We combine existing observations with recovered observations from Dakar and a high-resolution sea-level reconstruction based on salt-marsh sediments from the …

Seasonal Dispersal Of Fjord Meltwaters As An Important Source Of Iron And Manganese To Coastal Antarctic Phytoplankton, Kiefer O. Forsch, Lisa Hahn-Woernle, Robert M. Sherrell, Vincent J. Roccanova, Kaixuan Bu, David Burdige, Maria Vernet, Katherine A. Barbeau

OES Faculty Publications

Glacial meltwater from the western Antarctic Ice Sheet is hypothesized to be an important source of cryospheric iron, fertilizing the Southern Ocean, yet its trace-metal composition and factors that control its dispersal remain poorly constrained. Here we characterize meltwater iron sources in a heavily glaciated western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) fjord. Using dissolved and particulate ratios of manganese to iron in meltwaters, porewaters, and seawater, we show that surface glacial melt and subglacial plumes contribute to the seasonal cycle of iron and manganese within a fjord still relatively unaffected by climate-change-induced glacial retreat. Organic ligands derived from the phytoplankton bloom and …

Droughtscape, Winter 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Winter 2021

Predicting The Impacts Of Climate Change On The Great Lakes Water Levels Using A Fully Coupled 3d Regional Modeling System, Miraj Kayastha

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

The Great Lakes of North America are the largest surface freshwater system in the world and many ecosystems, industries, and coastal processes are sensitive to the changes in their water levels. The recent changes in the Great Lakes climate and water levels have particularly highlighted the importance of water level prediction. The water levels of the Great Lakes are primarily governed by the net basin supplies (NBS) of each lake which are the sum of over-lake precipitation and basin runoff minus lake evaporation. Recent studies have utilized Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with a fully coupled one-dimensional (1D) lake model to …

Experiential Learning In Soil Science: Evaluating Soil Quality In South Wollo, Ethiopia, Melissa Allen, Martha Mamo, Shimelis Beyene, Teshome Regassa, Gandura O. Abagandura, Solomon Abreha, Anthony James Mucia, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study abroad program provided an opportunity to enhance the international experience and research skills of University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) students within a multidisciplinary team’s research-education goal on improving food security in Ethiopia. The experiential study component of the project included preparatory sessions during the Fall 2015 Semester at the UNL followed by a four- to five-week fieldwork experience in Ethiopia. Teams from the UNL and an Ethiopian university participated in survey data collection and field soil evaluations from farms in the Gerado area of South Wollo, Ethiopia. Having students interact with farmers increased student self-confidence and enhanced their leadership …

Inference Of Surface Velocities From Oblique Time Lapse Photos And Terrestrial Based Lidar At The Helheim Glacier, Franklyn T. Dunbar Ii

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Using time dependent observations derived from terrestrial LiDAR and oblique
time-lapse imagery, we demonstrate that a Bayesian approach to glacial motion es-
timation provides a concise way to incorporate multiple data products into a single
motion estimation procedure effectively producing surface velocity estimates with
an associated uncertainty. This approach brings both improved computational effi-
ciency, and greater scalability across observational time-frames when compared to
existing methods. To gauge efficacy, we apply these methods to a set of observa-
tions from the Helheim Glacier, a critical actor in contemporary mass loss trends
observed in the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that …

Recent Flooding Events On The Chagrin And Cuyahoga Rivers, Ohio, Kayley Martin

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

From the 1910s through the 1980s, the number of intense daily precipitation events in the United States remained constant, however, since the 1980s there has been an increasing trend in intense single-day precipitation events (U.S Environmental Protection Agency, 2016). One outcome of intense precipitation events is river flooding, particularly in the upper Midwest region where floods have increased in magnitude and frequency (U.S Environmental Protection Agency, 2016). In this thesis project, recent flooding history on the Chagrin and Cuyahoga Rivers in Ohio was studied to expand on previous research that observed an abrupt increase in high magnitude flood events on …

Effects Of Hydrological And Climatic Variables On Cyanobacterial Blooms In Four Large Shallow Lakes Fed By The Yangtze River, Jian Huang, Qiujin Xu, Xixi Wang, Hao Ji, Edward J. Quigley, Mohamadali Sharbatmaleki, Simeng Li, Beidou Xi, Biao Sun, Caole Li

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Shallow lakes, one of the most widespread water bodies in the world, are easily shifted to a new trophic state due to external interferences. Shifting hydrologic conditions and climate change can cause cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) in shallow lakes, which pose serious threats to ecological integrity and human health. This study analyzed the effects of hydrologic and meteorological variables on cyanobacterial blooms in Yangtze-connected lakes (Lake Dongting and Poyang) and isolated lakes (Lake Chao and Tai). The results show that (i) chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration tends to decrease exponentially with increasing relative lake level fluctuations (RLLF) and precipitation, but to …

Anticipating And Adapting To The Future Impacts Of Climate Change On The Health, Security And Welfare Of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities In Southeastern Usa, Thomas Allen, Joshua Behr, Anamaria Bukvic, Ryan S.D. Calder, Kiki Caruson, Charles Connor, Christopher D'Elia, David Dismukes, Robin Ersing, Rima Franklin, Jesse Goldstein, Jonathon Goodall, Scott Hemmerling, Jennifer Irish, Steven Lazarus, Derek Loftis, Mark Luther, Leigh Mccallister, Karen Mcglathery, Molly Mitchell, William Moore, Charles Reid Nichols, Karinna Nunez, Matthew Reidenbach, Julie Shortridge, Robert Weisberg, Robert Weiss, Lynn Donelson Wright, Meng Xia, Kehui Xu, Donald Young, Gary Zarillo, Julie C. Zinnert

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) are extensive throughout the southeastern United States. LECZ communities are threatened by inundation from sea level rise, storm surge, wetland degradation, land subsidence, and hydrological flooding. Communication among scientists, stakeholders, policy makers and minority and poor residents must improve. We must predict processes spanning the ecological, physical, social, and health sciences. Communities need to address linkages of (1) human and socioeconomic vulnerabilities; (2) public health and safety; (3) economic concerns; (4) land loss; (5) wetland threats; and (6) coastal inundation. Essential capabilities must include a network to assemble and distribute data and model code to …

Response Of Deep Aquifers To Climate Variability, Karem Fathy Abdelgaber Abdelmohsen

Dissertations

Our recent analysis of Temporal Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) solutions over the largest aquifer system in Africa (the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System: NSAS) revealed that while the response of deep aquifers to climatic variations remains a relatively slow process that takes thousands to tens of thousands of years, there is a much faster response in aquifers that are characterized by dense networks of faults, fractures and karst as is the case with the NSAS. This rapid groundwater flow, when it occurs, is detected as an increase in GRACE_TWS over areas downgradient and distant (hundreds of km) from …

Building An Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (Few) Systems Focus, Lindsay E. Johnson, Hatim M.E. Geli, Michael J. Hayes, Kelly Helm Smith

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a familiar climatic phenomenon in the United States Southwest, with complex human-environment interactions that extend beyond just the physical drought events. Due to continued climate variability and change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and/or severe in the future. Decision-makers are charged with mitigating and adapting to these more extreme conditions and to do that they need to understand the specific impacts drought has on regional and local scales, and how these impacts compare to historical conditions. Tremendous progress in drought monitoring strategies has occurred over the past several decades, with more tools providing greater spatial and …

Forest Drought Response Index (Fordri): A New Combined Model To Monitor Forest Drought In The Eastern United States, Tsegaye Tadesse, David Y. Hollinger, Yared A. Bayissa, Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Beichen Zhang, Getachew Demissie, Brian D. Wardlow, Gil Bohrer, Kenneth L. Clark, Ankur R. Desai, Lianhong Gu, Asko Noormets, Kimberly A. Novick, Andrew D. Richardson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring drought impacts in forest ecosystems is a complex process because forest ecosystems are composed of different species with heterogeneous structural compositions. Even though forest drought status is a key control on the carbon cycle, very few indices exist to monitor and predict forest drought stress. The Forest Drought Indicator (ForDRI) is a new monitoring tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to identify forest drought stress. ForDRI integrates 12 types of data, including satellite, climate, evaporative demand, ground water, and soil moisture, into a single hybrid index to estimate tree stress. The model uses Principal Component Analysis …

Mass And Number Size Distributions Of Rbc In Snow And Firn Samples From Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, Luciano Marquetto, Susan Kaspari, Jefferson Cardia Simões

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

An extended‐range Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) coupled to a Marin‐5 nebulizer was used to measure the refractory black carbon (rBC) mass and number size distributions in 1,004 samples from a West Antarctica snow/firn core. The SP2 was calibrated using Aquadag and a Centrifugal Particle Mass Analyzer for BC particles ranging from 0.5 to 800 fg. Our results indicate a significant contribution of rare, large particles of mass‐equivalent diameter (D_BC) > 500 nm to the total rBC mass (36%), while small particles (D_BC < 100 nm) are abundant but contribute <8% to total rBC mass. We observed a primary mass median diameter of 162 ± 40 nm, smaller than reported for snow in other regions of the globe but similar to East Antarctica rBC size distributions. In addition, we observed other modes at 673, 1,040, and >1,810 nm (uncontained mode). We compared two sets of samples from different seasons …

Seasonal Grassland Productivity Forecast For The U.S. Great Plains Using Grass-Cast, Melannie D. Hartman, William J. Parton, Justin D. Derner, Darin K. Schulte, William K. Smith, Dannele E. Peck, Ken A. Day, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Susan Lutz, Brian Fuchs, Maosi Chen, Wei Gao

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, …

Correlation Analysis Of Precipitation And River Flow With The Injection And Discharge Of The Three Gorges Dam And Reservoir, Lirong Yin

LSU Master's Theses

The Yangtze River has been the primary support of the resources and transportation of China. Its basin covers an area of 1.8 million square kilometers. The Three Gorges Dam and Reservoir on the Yangtze River is one of the world's largest dams. After the dam construction in 1997, the reservoir started injecting the reservoir to a size of over 600 km². The influence caused by the dam and reservoir on the river system has been overwhelming and destructive. The possible influence of this vast water body and the operation to maintain this waterbody's size and water level on …

Calibrating Human Attention As Indicator: Monitoring #Drought In The Twittersphere, Kelly Smith, Andrew Tyre, Zhenghong Tang, Michael Hayes, Adnan Akyuz

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

State climatologists and other expert drought observers have speculated about the value of monitoring Twitter for #drought and related hashtags. This study statistically examines the relationships between the rate of tweeting using #drought and related hashtags, within states, accounting for drought status and news coverage of drought. We collected and geolocated tweets, 2017–18, and used regression analysis and a diversity statistic to explain expected and identify unexpected volumes of tweets. This provides a quantifiable means to detect state-weeks with a volume of tweets that exceeds the upper limit of the prediction interval. To filter out instances where a high volume …

Droughtscape, Fall 2020, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2020

Snow-Albedo Feedback In Northern Alaska: How Vegetation Influences Snowmelt, Lucas C. Reckhaus

Theses and Dissertations

This paper investigates how the snow-albedo feedback mechanism of the arctic is changing in response to rising climate temperatures. Specifically, the interplay of vegetation and snowmelt, and how these two variables can be correlated. This has the potential to refine climate modelling of the spring transition season. Research was conducted at the ecoregion scale in northern Alaska from 2000 to 2020. Each ecoregion is defined by distinct topographic and ecological conditions, allowing for meaningful contrast between the patterns of spring albedo transition across surface conditions and vegetation types. The five most northerly ecoregions of Alaska are chosen as they encompass …

Using Climate To Explain And Predict West Nile Virus Risk In Nebraska, Kelly Helm Smith, Andrew J. Tyre, Jeff Hamik, Michael J. Hayes, Yuzhen Zhou, Li Dai

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

We used monthly precipitation and temperature data to give early warning of years with higher West Nile Virus (WNV) risk in Nebraska. We used generalized additive models with a negative binomial distribution and smoothing curves to identify combinations of extremes and timing that had the most influence, experimenting with all combinations of temperature and drought data, lagged by 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. We fit models on data from 2002 through 2011, used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best‐fitting model, and used 2012 as out‐of‐sample data for prediction, and repeated this process for each successive year, …

The Post-Wildfire Impact Of Burn Severity And Age On Black Carbon Snow Deposition And Implications For Snow Water Resources, Cascade Range, Washington, Ted M. Uecker, Susan D. Kaspari, Keith N. Musselman, S. Mckenzie Skiles

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Wildfires in the snow zone affect ablation by removing forest canopy, which enhances surface solar irradiance, and depositing light absorbing particles [LAPs, such as black carbon (BC)] on the snowpack, reducing snow albedo. How variations in BC deposition affects post-wildfire snowmelt timing is poorly known and highly relevant to water resources. We present a field-based analysis of BC variability across five sites of varying burn age and burn severity in the Cascade Range, Washington State, United States. Single particle soot photometer (SP2) analyses of BC snow concentrations were used to assess the impact of BC on snow albedo, and radiative …

Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction Of Quaternary Saltville, Virginia, Using Ostracode Autecology, Austin Gause

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Saltville valley in southwestern Virginia is home to Quaternary localities containing paleontological and archaeological remains. Historically the valley has been mined for salt and the small lakes, ponds and springs along the valley floor have a brackish signature. A preliminary report on the site’s ostracode fauna suggested that the site’s water was not always saline. This study analyzed modern and Quaternary ostracodes to understand the valley’s hydrologic and chemical evolution. Sediments contained primarily freshwater species, including the environmentally sensitive Candona crogmaniana. The presence of Pelocypris tuberculatum and a new Fabaeformiscandona species throughout a vertical section spanning the latest Pleistocene …

Statement Of World Aquatic Scientific Societies On The Need To Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based On Scientific Evidence [Dear Colleague Letter], Scott A. Bonar, Brian R. Murphy, Leanne H. Roulson, Jesse T. Trushenski, Douglas J. Austen, Michael Edward Douglas

United States Fish and Wildlife Service: Publications

Dear Colleague Letter from the American Fisheries Society to fellow scientific societies, July 25, 2020, about the urgent need for responsive collective action to mitigate impending radical climate change. Includes the Statement of World Aquatic Scientific Societies on the Need to Take Urgent Action Against Human-Caused Climate Change, Based on Scientific Evidence, emphasizing the importance of aquatic ecosystems. Includes extensive citations and notes.

"Water is the most important natural resource on Earth as it is vital for life. Aquatic ecosystems, freshwater or marine, provide multiple benefits to human society, such as provisioning of oxygen, food, drinking water, genetic resources; regulation …

Monitoring Residual Soil Moisture And Its Association To The Long-Term Variability Of Rainfall Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin In Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring soil moisture and its association with rainfall variability is important to comprehend the hydrological processes and to set proper agricultural water use management to maximize crop growth and productivity. In this study, the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) soil moisture product was applied to assess the dynamics of residual soil moisture in autumn (September to November) and its response to the long-term variability of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) of Ethiopia from 1992 to 2017. The basin was found to have autumn soil moisture (ASM) ranging from 0.09–0.38 m³/m³, …

Droughtscape, Summer 2020, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Summer 2020

Long-Term Ndvi And Recent Vegetation Cover Profiles Of Major Offshore Island Nesting Sites Of Sea Turtles In Saudi Waters Of The Northern Arabian Gulf, Rommel H. Maneja, Jeffrey D. Miller, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Ace Vincent B. Flandez, Joshua J. Dagoy, Joselito Francis A. Alcaria, Abdullajid U. Basali, Khaled A. Al-Abdulkader, Ronald A. Loughland, Mohamed A. Qurban

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Vegetation is an important ecological component of offshore islands in the Arabian Gulf (AG), which maintains long-term resilience of these islands. This is achieved by influencing sediment retention and moisture acquisition via condensation during periods of high humidity and by providing a variety of microhabitats for island fauna. The resilience of offshore islands’ ecosystems in the Saudi waters is important because they host the largest number of nesting hawksbill and green turtles in the AG. This study defines the characteristics and the long-term trends in vegetation cover of the offshore islands used by sea turtles as nesting grounds in the …

Combined Use Of Sentinel‐1 Sar And Landsat Sensors Products For Residual Soil Moisture Retrieval Over Agricultural Fields In The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Yibeltal Yigrem, Assefa M. Melesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential of sentinel‐1 SAR sensor products and the contribution of soil roughness parameters to estimate volumetric residual soil moisture (RSM) in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin, Ethiopia. The backscatter contribution of crop residue water content was estimated using Landsat sensor product and the water cloud model (WCM). The surface roughness parameters were estimated from the Oh and Baghdadi models. A feed‐forward artificial neural network (ANN) method was tested for its potential to translate SAR backscattering and surface roughness input variables to RSM values. The model was trained for three inversion …

A Hydrometeorological Assessment Of The Historic 2019 Flood Of Nebraska, Iowa, And South Dakota, Paul Xavier Flanagan, Rezaul Mahmood, Natalie Umphlett, Erin M.K. Haacker, Chittaranjan Ray, Bill Sorensen, Martha Shulski, Crystal J. Stiles, David Pearson, Paul Fajman

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

During early 2019, a series of events set the stage for devastating floods in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota. When the floodwaters hit, dams and levees failed, cutting off towns, while destroying roads, bridges, and rail lines, further exacerbating the crisis. Lives were lost and thousands of cattle were stranded. Estimates indicate that the cost of the flooding has topped $3 billion as of August 2019, with this number expected to rise.

After a warm and wet start to winter, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota endured anomalously low temperatures and record-breaking snowfall. By March …

Building Adaptive Capacity In Tribal Communities Of The Missouri River Basin To Manage Drought And Climate Extremes: A Case Study From The Wind River Indian Reservation, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie Umphlett, Mitch Cottenoir

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Native American peoples of the Northern and Central Plains have long endured harsh climate conditions, such as floods and droughts, and they possess valuable traditional knowledges that have enhanced their resilience to these extreme events. However, in recent times, limited capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate combined with a lack of resources have increased tribes’ vulnerability to climate extremes and their associated impacts. In response, a number of projects have been developed to assist tribes with their self-identified climate- and drought-related needs, particularly in the context of on-reservation decision-making. In this case study, we present an engagement strategy …

Droughtscape, Spring 2020, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2020

Changing Water Resources’ Effect On Livelihoods And Socio-Ecological Relationships In Himalayan Communities Of Nepal, Luke Bazemore

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The looming threat of climate change will lead to significant alterations in livelihoods and daily practices for individuals across the world. This paper seeks to identify the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes in Himalayan communities in Nepal with particular focus towards livelihood and socio-ecological transformations. Using the socio-ecological systems framework to analyze specific communities and their resource use, along with vulnerability and adaptative capacity analysis, this paper includes a meta-analysis of existing literature. Numerous findings indicated that rural, mountainous communities of Nepal face a variety of environmental impacts which may reduce viability of two significant modes of production: …