Climate Commons^™

Building A High-Resolution Vegetation Outlook Model To Monitor Agricultural Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

To reduce the impacts of drought, developing an integrated drought monitoring tool and early warning system is crucial and more effective than the crisis management approach that is commonly used in developing countries like Ethiopia. The overarching goal of this study was to develop a higher-spatial-resolution vegetation outlook (VegOut-UBN) model that integrates multiple satellite, climatic, and biophysical input variables for the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin. VegOut-UBN uses current and historical observations in predicting the vegetation condition at multiple leading time steps of 1, 3, 6, and 9 dekades. VegOut-UBN was developed to predict the vegetation condition during the main …

Climate Change In A Differential Equations Course: Using Bifurcation Diagrams To Explore Small Changes With Big Effects, Justin Dunmyre, Nicholas Fortune, Tianna Bogart, Chris Rasmussen, Karen Keene

CODEE Journal

The environmental phenomenon of climate change is of critical importance to today's science and global communities. Differential equations give a powerful lens onto this phenomenon, and so we should commit to discussing the mathematics of this environmental issue in differential equations courses. Doing so highlights the power of linking differential equations to environmental and social justice causes, and also brings important science to the forefront in the mathematics classroom. In this paper, we provide an extended problem, appropriate for a first course in differential equations, that uses bifurcation analysis to study climate change. Specifically, through studying hysteresis, this problem highlights …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: February 2019 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for February 2019. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Incorporating Uh Occurrence Time To Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities, Burkely T. Gallo, Adam J. Clark, Bryan T. Smith, Richard L. Thompson, Israel Jirak, Scott R. Dembek

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving (RM) supercells. However, when UH occurrence is a condition for tornado probability generation, false alarm areas can occur from UH swaths associated with nocturnal mesoscale convective systems, which climatologically produce fewer tornadoes than RM supercells. This study incorporates UH timing information with the forecast near-storm significant tornado parameter (STP) to calibrate the forecast tornado probability. To generate the probabilistic forecasts, three sets of observed climatological tornado frequencies given an RM supercell and STP …

Life In Hampton Roads: Local Residents Concerned About Sea Level Rise And Flood Risks, News @ Odu

News Items

No abstract provided.

2019 February - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Iron Fertilization With Enhanced Phytoplankton Productivity Under Minimal Sulfur Compounds And Grazing Control Analysis In Hnlc Region, Tai-Jin Kim, G. H. Hong, D. G. Kim Kim, Mark Baskaran

Environmental Science and Geology Faculty Research Publications

The present study investigated quantitatively the significance of HNLC (high-nutrient low-chlorophyll) regions and its grazing control with the im- proved iron fertilization for climate change. The limitation of iron (Fe) for phytoplankton growth in HNLC regions was confirmed by sulfur compounds (S) such as volcanic ash and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) in batch cultures, whose chemical sediment of Fe3S4 showed 4.06 wt%. The technologies developed for iron fertilization since 1993 till now were not practical to provide sufficient amounts of bioavailable iron due to sedimentary iron sulfides induced by undersea volcanic sulfur compounds. The proposed technology for iron fertilization was improved …

A Global Database Of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity, Tc Chakraborty, Xuhui Lee

Yale Day of Data

The urban heat island (UHI) effect - the phenomenon of higher temperatures in urban environments - is one of the most well-known consequences of urbanization on local climate. We develop the simplified urban-extent (SUE) algorithm, a new algorithm to estimate the urban heat island (UHI) intensity at a global scale. This algorithm is implemented on the Google Earth Engine platform and uses satellite-derived images to calculate the surface UHI intensity for over 9500 urban clusters covering 15 years, making this the most comprehensive global UHI database. The data are validated against previous multi-city studies and then used to estimate the …

Spatial Heterogeneity Of Temporal Shifts In Extreme Precipitation Across India, Manas Khan, Francisco Munoz-Arriola, Rehana Shaik, Penny Greer

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

When analyzing trends and patterns of extreme precipitation, one can easily generalize the shifts caused by external climate forcings and map a single temporal shift of annual precipitation. However, the complexity of a changing environment evidences spatially distributed shifts particularly those of extreme precipitation which are essential in planning and designing enterprises and, ultimately, in managing infrastructure across scales. The goal of this study is to characterize the spatial heterogeneity of shifts in the increasing pace of extreme events over India. The study has a two-part hypothesis: (1) the number of grid cells with significant trends in annual precipitation (P), …

Isolution 1.0: An Isotope Evolution Model Describing The Stable Oxygen (Δ18O) And Carbon (Δ13C) Isotope Values Of Speleothems, Michael Deininger, Denis Scholz

International Journal of Speleology

Stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) are the most applied climate and environmental proxies in speleothems allowing to infer past changes in cave drip water δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O related to climate and environmental variations from above the cave. However, disequilibrium isotope fractionation processes can modify δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values in speleothems, which is in most cases difficult to estimate due to inter-dependencies on various cave specific parameter. To better understand the effect of these disequilibrium isotope fractionation processes proxy system models were developed in recent …

Assessing The Evolution Of Soil Moisture And Vegetation Conditions During A Flash Drought–Flash Recovery Sequence Over The South-Central United States, Jason A. Otkin, Yafang Zhong, Eric D. Hunt, Jeff Basara, Mark Svoboda, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study examines the evolution of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, vegetation, and atmospheric conditions during an unusual flash drought–flash recovery sequence that occurred across the south-central United States during 2015. This event was characterized by a period of rapid drought intensification (flash drought) during late summer that was terminated by heavy rainfall at the end of October that eliminated the extreme drought conditions over a 2-week period (flash recovery). A detailed analysis was performed using time series of environmental variables derived from meteorological, remote sensing, and land surface modeling datasets. Though the analysis revealed a similar progression of cascading effects in …

Soil Moisture Monitoring Using Remote Sensing Data And A Stepwise-Cluster Prediction Model: The Case Of Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Yibeltal Yigrem

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, a residual soil moisture prediction model was developed using the stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) and model prediction approach in the Upper Blue Nile basin. The SCA has the advantage of capturing the nonlinear relationships between remote sensing variables and volumetric soil moisture. The principle of SCA is to generate a set of prediction cluster trees based on a series of cutting and merging process according to a given statistical criterion. The proposed model incorporates the combinations of dual-polarized Sentinel-1 SAR data, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and digital elevation model as input parameters. In this regard, two …

Socioecological Determinants Of Drought Impacts And Coping Strategies For Ranching Operations In The Great Plains, Tonya Haigh, Walter H. Schacht, Cody L. Knutson, Alexander J. Smart, Jerry Volesky, Craig R. Allen, Michael Hayes, Mark E. Burbach

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In Great Plains rangelands, drought is a recurring disturbance. Ranchers in this region expect to encounter drought but may not be adequately prepared for it. Efforts to encourage drought preparednesswould benefit froma better understanding of the conditions under which managers make decisions to minimize the impacts of drought.We tested the direct andmoderating roles of the drought hazard and the social-ecological context on drought impacts and response. This study was conducted with ranchers in western and central South Dakota and Nebraska following the drought that began in 2012. We surveyed ranchers regarding the effects of the drought and their responses and …

Weather And Climate Summary And Forecast: January 2019 Report, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report provides a summary of the weather and climate forecast for January 2019. It includes forecast information specific to the Pacific Northwest and the western United States, as well as forecast information for other portions of the United States and abroad.

Creative Citizen Science Illuminates Complex Ecological Responses To Climate Change, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, Amanda S. Gallinat, Richard B. Primack

Biology Faculty Publications

Climate change is causing the timing of key behaviors (i.e., phenology) to shift differently across trophic levels and among some interacting organisms (e.g., plants and pollinators, predators and prey), suggesting that interactions among species are being disrupted (1, 2). Studying the phenology of interactions, however, is difficult, which has limited researchers’ ability to zero in on changes in specific interactions or on the consequences of mismatches. In PNAS, Hassall et al. (3) use a combination of citizen science techniques to investigate the effects of climate change on dozens of specific interactions. They focus on a Batesian mimicry complex involving stinging …

Applications Of Satellite Data In Analyses Of Surface Pm2.5, Minghui Diao, Frank R. Freedman, Sen Chiao, Isa Cruz, Ana Rivera, Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan, Akula Venkatram

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Fine particulate is among the most harmful air pollutants for human health. There is ongoing interest in developing reliable methods to estimate PM2.5 concentrations 1) at unmonitored locations and 2) at finer horizontal resolution for improved health risk assessment and public health tracking.We aim to develop an efficient system that can reliably estimate PM2.5 at unmonitored locations and at finer horizontal resolution at important locations.• MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) provides an input for particulate levels at unmonitored locations in methods used to construct regional PM2.5 fields.• Dispersion model fields can be fused into portions of these regional fields for …

Vintage Report 2018: North Willamette Valley, Gregory V. Jones

Linfield University Wine Studies Reports

This report describes the impacts of climate and phenology on vintage for the North Willamette Valley in Oregon in 2018. A relatively mild and dry winter set the stage for a 2018 growing season that was highlighted by a cool spring, a summer with low heat stress but high drought stress along with numerous regional fires, and a glorious October. The moderately cool spring led to a late start to the growing season with an average bud break of April 17th delayed by 5-10 days compared to average. However, a warm May through August brought plant growth timing to near …

2019 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Assessing The Skill Of The Improved Treatment Of Riverine Freshwater In The Community Earth System Model Relative To A New Salinity Climatology, Qiang Sun, Michael M. Whitney, Frank O. Bryan, Yu-Heng Tseng

Department of Marine Sciences

Recent studies have explored the sensitivity of global ocean model simulations to the treatment of riverine freshwater and the representation of estuarine processes via an estuary box model (EBM) applied within CESM. This study builds on these efforts by assessing the model skill score relative to a new salinity climatology. The new climatology averages the original observational data of the World Ocean Database directly onto the CESM ocean-component tracer-grid cells without spatial interpolation, smoothing, or other gap-filling techniques to mitigate coastal ocean salinity bias present in the World Ocean Atlas. The mean squared error (MSE) for coastal upper ocean salinity …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2019, Natalie Umphlett, Rezaul Mamood, Warren Pettee, Gannon Rush, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Year in review............................2

Drought THIRA toolkit...........3

Product highlight....................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Other HPRCC news.................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6