Climate Commons^™

A Hybrid Cnn-Lstm Surrogate Model For Hyper-Resolution Spatiotemporal Flood Forecasting In Norfolk, Virginia, Yidi Wang, Jonathan L. Goodall, Chetan Kumar, Diana Mcspadden, Sergio A. Barbosa, Binata Roy, Ali Shahabi, Navid Tahvildari

Data Science Faculty Publications

Study region

Norfolk, Virginia, United States

Study focus

Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features.

New hydrologic insights for …

Forecasting Precipitation In Cuba Using Graph Based Deep Learning, Taufiqul Islam

Earth & Environmental Sciences Theses

Daily precipitation forecasting remained a challenging problem in regions characterized by strong spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear atmospheric dynamics, and intermittent rainfall behavior. Cuba represented a particularly complex case due to the combined influence of tropical cyclones, easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems, and orographic effects, which produced highly variable rainfall patterns in both space and time. Conventional statistical and machine-learning models typically treated stations independently and therefore overlooked spatial dependencies that strongly influenced rainfall variability across the island.

This study developed a spatiotemporal deep-learning framework for daily precipitation forecasting across 40 spatial nodes in Cuba using data from 1979 to 2023. The …

The Coral Microbiome Under Climate Change: Shifting Symbiotic Interactions, Katherine E. Parker, Kate M. Quigley

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Host–microbe symbioses are central to organismal health, yet these complex partnerships are often strongly shaped by the environment. Climate change is increasingly altering environmental conditions, disrupting the balance of host–microbe interactions and pushing them along a continuum from mutualism (both partners benefit) toward parasitism (one partner gains at the other’s expense). Reef-building corals provide a clear example of this vulnerability, as the coral holobiont, an ecological unit comprising diverse photosynthetic algal symbionts (Symbiodiniaceae) and other microbial partners, depends largely on these mutualistic interactions for nutrition, immunity, and stress tolerance. Increasingly, evidence suggests that under heat stress, the algal symbionts retain …

Climate Change Impacts On Hydrology In The Upper James Watershed, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Hydrological modeling of the Upper James Watershed (UJW), Virginia, is critical for predicting water availability, flood management, agriculture, ecosystem protection, and hydropower production under increasing climate change. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is applied to evaluate climate change impacts on key hydrological components within the watershed. Future climate conditions were assessed for the near (NF: 2026-2050), mid (MF: 2051-2075), and far (FF: 2076-2100) periods using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5. Climate data were bias-corrected using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM) and used to drive the HEC-HMS model. Results project …

Technological Interventions For Reducing Climate Change Impacts On Health: An Overview Of Future Possibilities, Sujatha Alla, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Bawa Singh

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Globally, over five million deaths annually are attributed to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change, such as heatwaves, hurricanes, wildfires, droughts, and floods, which create health crises and economic losses. The 2015 Paris Declaration emphasized climate technology mechanisms, including research and development, to enhance resilience and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Biotechnological advancements have mitigated about 20% of economic losses since the 1960s, highlighting technology’s potential to address climate-induced health risks.

State Climate Superfunds, Rachel Rothschild

Articles

The harmful effects of climate change have already arrived in cities and states across America, with disasters increasing markedly in recent years along with more gradual environmental changes like sea-level rise and drought. To protect populations and natural resources, significant funding will be necessary for preventative measures as well as disaster response.

At present, it is states and ordinary taxpayers who must shoulder the enormous costs and planning for climate adaptation. A number of state legislators, however, have recently proposed enacting new laws that would require the companies who have most profited from fossil fuel usage to assist in funding …

Analysis Of The Thermodynamic Variables Associated With Hawaiian Extreme Precipitation Using The Fraction Of Attributable Risk (Far), Matthew J. Sinnenberg

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The Hawaiian Islands experience extreme maxima in precipitation that vary spatially, by season, and in response to different teleconnection patterns. Due to the islands’ unique geography, they are not well-resolved by global climate models, necessitating a focused assessment to identify  climatological trends. In this study, a probability-based analysis was conducted on regionally averaged thermodynamic variables relevant to the formation of extreme events. The primary objective was to evaluate whether changes in the occurrence of extreme conditions have occurred and to understand how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences these occurrence rates.

Hourly data from ERA5 spanning 1980-2019 were resampled to …

Retrieval And Characterization Of Aerosol Optical And Microphysical Properties Following Pyrocumulonimbus Events From Sageiii/Iss, Vishal G. Bagadia

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in maintaining global radiative balance with impacts to stratospheric equilibria through physical and chemical forcings.  Stratospheric aerosol size distributions, in particular aerosol size, are vitally important in determining the physical and chemical impacts of aerosols in the stratosphere. The representation of aerosol size and size distributions in most climate models contain large uncertainties due to relatively sparse sampling of stratospheric aerosols. Occultation measurements from satellite provide an unique opportunity to retrieve the aerosol size distribution using high quality aerosol extinction measurements. A retrieval algorithm is developed to characterize size distributions of stratospheric aerosols from …

An Evaluation Of Current And Future Extreme Precipitation Events In The South American Altiplano Using Convective-Permitting Model Simulations, Karen R. Conron Chamberlain

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Extreme precipitation events in the South American Altiplano present significant hazards to communities in the Andean region, yet their future characteristics under anthropogenic climate change remain uncertain because of complex terrain and limitations of course-resolution climate models. This study evaluates the ability of South America Affinity Group Weather Research and Forecasting (SAAG-WRF) model with 4-km grid-spacing to reproduce 2000-2015 temperature, precipitation, and extreme precipitation events over the Altiplano. Examination of projected future changes is completed using the SAAG-WRF pseudo global warming (WRF PGW) simulation representing an approximately 3°C warmer global climate. The historical/control simulation (WRF CTL) was evaluated against DECADE …

Hydroclimate Variability And Itcz Migration Over The Last Millennium Inferred From A New Speleothem Record In Central Colombia Using Paleo Data Assimilation, Derick Appiah Kubi

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Hydroclimate variability over tropical South America is strongly influenced by meridional shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), yet the spatial expression and dynamical controls of these changes during the last millennium remain poorly understood. This work investigates hydroclimate variability and ITCZ migration over the last millennium (850-1850 CE) using a new isotope-enabled data assimilation (DA) reconstruction made from a suite of speleothem δ¹⁸O records from the neotropics on both sides of the ITCZ. The reconstruction targets the March-August (MAMJJA) season in order to capture the rainfall regimes most relevant to central Colombia and northeastern Brazil. The focus on these …

A Two-Stage Changepoint-Copula Framework For Non-Stationary Count Time Series: Application To Tropical Cyclones, Md Iqbal Hossain, Norou Diawara

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Cross-basin tropical cyclone variability may exhibit complex, non-linear dependence structures influenced by large-scale climate modes and potential regime shifts. Reliance on traditional linear correlation measures without accounting for structural changes can therefore lead to misleading interpretations of global storm relationships. This study investigates the regional dependence structures of tropical cyclone counts across six major ocean basins (NA, ENP, WNP, NI, SI, and SP) from 1980 to 2024. We adopt a two-stage analytical framework integrating changepoint detection and copula modeling to address non-stationarity in both marginal distributions and dependence structures. First, we identify a significant structural break in the year 2000 …

Changepoint Analyses Confirms Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency Decline, Michael Wehner, Thomas Fisher, Norou Diawara, Robert Lund

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Changes in tropical cyclone frequencies as the climate warms is a topic of significant current debate [1, 2]. There is no accepted theory of how tropical cyclogenesis might respond to a warmer ocean-atmosphere system as multiple controlling factors exist [3–7]. Anthropogenic warming of surface ocean temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations [8] increases the potential for tropical cyclogenesis [9–11]; however, realized cyclogenesis also requires an initial local disturbance [12–16] to develop. Most multi-decadal tropical cyclone permitting climate models (i.e. resolutions of 15-50km) exhibit frequency decreases in warmer climates, despite the increase in tropical cyclogenesis potential [17–25]. In this paper, …

A Composite Narxnn Approach To Photovoltaic Power Forecasting With Integrated Weather Inputs And Uncertainty Quantification, Denisse Urenda Castañeda, Sharmin Abdullah, Jackson Morgan, Honglun Xu, Michael Pokojovy, Tzu-Liang Tseng

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a major source of sustainable energy. Yet, their power output is highly sensitive to environmental variability, particularly solar irradiance, cloud cover, wind, and temperature. Accurate forecasting of PV power is essential for efficient grid integration and energy planning, especially in applications requiring reliable longer-term forecasting rather than one-step-ahead predictions. This study presents a PV power forecasting approach using Nonlinear Autoregressive models with Exogenous Inputs (NARX), integrating large-scale numerical weather historical data as exogenous variables. Although NARX models effectively capture temporal dependencies, they can become overly dependent on historical power values, reducing responsiveness to real-time weather changes. …

A Geospatial Assessment Of Groundwater Salinization In A Multi-Aquifer System: Durango, Mexico, Juan Lopez-Sierra

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Groundwater salinization poses a critical environmental concern for water resource sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions. This study evaluates spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater salinity across the state of Durango, Mexico, using total dissolved solids (TDS), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), as salinity indicators and nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃–N) as an anthropogenic indicator. Groundwater quality data were obtained from (CONAGUA), a Mexican water agency. To assess salinity variations with respect to time, while minimizing interannual sampling bias, two multi-year sampling periods were selected: 2012-2013, and 2020-2021. Final datasets consisted of 122 wells for 2012–2013 and 131 wells for 2020–2021. The wells were …

Diatom Community Response To High And Low Iron Upwelling Plumes In The California Current System, Sveinn V. Einarsson, Kimberly Powell, Claire Till, Tyler Coale, P. Dreux Chappell

OES Faculty Publications

Diatoms are important primary producers, accounting for most of the oceanic production and carbon export relative to other photosynthetic eukaryotes. There are important differences among diatom species that enable them to proliferate in different environments. Some have nutrient storage capabilities or lower nutrient quotas suited for oligotrophic oceans. Bloom-forming diatoms are typically found in nutrient-rich coastal waters where they respond quickly to nutrient pulses and can influence biogeochemical cycling in the ocean after blooms. As many physiological differences affect biomass and export, it is important to better understand how physical and chemical parameters influence diatom community composition, especially in dynamic …

Modeling Upper Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics In Response To Interannual Sea-Ice Variability In The Western Antarctic Peninsula, Catherine R. Czajka, Jessica S. Turner, Sharon Stammerjohn, Heather H. Kim, Oscar Schofield, Benjamin T. Saenz, Scott C. Doney

OES Faculty Publications

In the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), marine plankton dynamics are tightly linked to the interannual variability in environmental conditions, including phenological shifts in sea-ice seasonality. To explore these linkages, we use a 1-dimensional vertical ocean-ice-ecosystem model (KPP-Eco-Ice, or KEI) that simulates physical and ecosystem conditions at a continental shelf mooring location in the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research program sampling grid. KEI allows for year-round examination of the ecosystem in a region where in situ observations on the shelf are limited to January. Comparisons are made between seasonal sea-ice retreat, mixed layer depth, primary productivity, and phytoplankton relative abundance, grazing, …

Autonomous Float Data Reveal Decoupled Trends In Chlorophyll And Stratification In The Indian Ocean, Marufa Ishaque, Sophie Clayton, John Klinck

OES Faculty Publications

Recent studies have shown that the Indian Ocean is warming significantly, but how this warming impacts primary production is largely unresolved due to a relative lack of depth-resolved biological observations. In this study, we have used Biogeochemical-Argo data from 2013 to 2022, comprising over 9,000 individual profiles, to examine regional patterns and trends in depth-integrated chlorophyll, depth-integrated net primary production and stratification in the northern and Equatorial Indian Ocean. Our analysis shows that water column stratification is increasing in the majority of the study area, with the highest rate of increase observed in the western Bay of Bengal. At the …

Historical Changes In The Seasonality And Variability Of Daily Surface Air Temperature In Era5 And Cmip6 Models, Zirui Wan

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This thesis investigates historical changes in the seasonality and daily variability of near-surface air temperature (Tas) during 1950–2024 using ERA5 reanalysis and simulations from 21 CMIP6 models. ERA5 and CMIP6 show broadly similar climatological structures of the Tas seasonal cycle and variability, with considerable inter-model discrepancies. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 show decreasing Tas variability over northern mid-high latitudes, while Tas variability increases in the low latitudes in ERA5 but changes little in CMIP6 multi-model mean (MMM) due to different change patterns among the models. To investigate the mechanisms of historical Tas variability changes, I analyzed the relationships between Tas variability …

Sedimentological And Geochemical Investigation Of The Origin Of Upper Pennsylvanian Black Shales, East-Central Appalachian Basin, Tyler Hickey

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

In the east-central Allegheny foreland basin, laminated black shales overlying Upper Pennsylvanian Glenshaw Fm. coal seams record paleoenvironmental conditions associated with the termination of peat swamp deposition before, during, and after the Carboniferous Coal Forest Collapse (CCFC), a major paleobotanical evolutionary event during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA) that contributed to extinction of lepidodendrons near the Desmoinesian-Missourian boundary (~306 Ma). Previous investigations of the CCFC commonly implicate an episode of aridification during intensification of LPIA glaciation that stressed the lepidodendrons beyond their ecological tipping point; however, the cause of this aridification is unclear. An investigation of Glenshaw Fm. black …

Quantum Mechanics As A Framework For Data Assimilation And Its Application To Atmospheric Parameterization, David Freeman

Dartmouth College Ph.D Dissertations

Quantum mechanics, as a mathematical system, can be understood as a generalization of classical probability theory. Quantum Mechanical Data Assimilation (QMDA) is a method in which classical dynamical systems are embedded into a quantum mechanical setting, with an associated data assimilation scheme leveraging the operator algebraic setting. In this dissertation, the algebraic structure underlying the operator theoretic formulation of QMDA is discussed. A procedure for closure of dynamical systems based on QMDA, known as Quantum Mechanical Closure (QMCl), is then constructed, and the procedures for constructing the quantum embeddings and implementing QMCl in practice are laid out and implemented for …