Climate Commons^™

The Coral Microbiome Under Climate Change: Shifting Symbiotic Interactions, Katherine E. Parker, Kate M. Quigley

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Host–microbe symbioses are central to organismal health, yet these complex partnerships are often strongly shaped by the environment. Climate change is increasingly altering environmental conditions, disrupting the balance of host–microbe interactions and pushing them along a continuum from mutualism (both partners benefit) toward parasitism (one partner gains at the other’s expense). Reef-building corals provide a clear example of this vulnerability, as the coral holobiont, an ecological unit comprising diverse photosynthetic algal symbionts (Symbiodiniaceae) and other microbial partners, depends largely on these mutualistic interactions for nutrition, immunity, and stress tolerance. Increasingly, evidence suggests that under heat stress, the algal symbionts retain …

Decomposing Shadow Prices Under Climate-Driven Growth Scenarios: Insights From An Elk Herd Case Study, Ranjit Bawa, Drew Bennett, Wai Yan Siu, Bailey Kirkland, David Finnoff, Jacob Hochard

ODU Articles

Natural capital accounting provides a framework for integrating ecological processes with economic valuation, but the mechanics of shadow price formation often remain opaque to resource managers and policymakers. Using the Clarks Fork elk herd in northwestern Wyoming as a case study, we decompose the shadow price of natural capital into its ecological, economic, and institutional components. Population dynamics are estimated using a linearized Ricker model and projected forward using a logistic projection, incorporating climate-driven reductions in intrinsic growth rates. These ecological scenarios are linked to a shadow pricing formulation that explicitly accounts for marginal benefits, harvest policy responses, discounting, and …

Sea-Level Rise Adaptation And Collaboration In Polycentric Governance: A Comparison Of Three Regions, Francesca Vantaggiato, Mark Lubell, Matthew C. Nowlin, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Majid Shafiee-Jood

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Adaptation to sea-level rise confronts coastal communities worldwide with a new set of collective action problems that require collaboration. When does collaboration result in concrete action for adaptation? To address this question, we combine the Ecology of Games and Collaborative Governance frameworks using a comparative analysis of three coastal regions in the United States. We leverage original survey data from the San Francisco Bay Area in California (2018, N = 878), the Tri-County (Charleston) Area in South Carolina (2022, N = 152), and the Hampton Roads region in Virginia (2023, N = 153), three regions that differ in terms of …

Hydrodynamic Tipping Points In The Mississippi Sound In Response To Bonnet Carré Spillway Openings, Mustafa Kemal Cambazoglu, Brandy N. Armstrong, Mohsena Lopa, Marc Diard, Jerry D. Wiggert

Faculty Publications

This project examines the current operational strategy of the Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS), a Mississippi River flood-control structure located about 21 miles northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana, and managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The BCS is part of the larger Mississippi River and Tributaries Project, a network of levees and control structures designed to minimize flooding from the American plains to southern Louisiana. The spillway is opened when river discharge at New Orleans is forecasted to exceed 1,250,000 cubic feet per second, diverting significant volumes of Mississippi River water into Lake Pontchartrain which subsequently flows into Mississippi …

Drivers Of Phytoplankton Bloom Interannual Variability In The Amundsen And Pine Island Polynyas, Guillaume Liniger, Delphine Lannuzel, Sébastien Moreau, Michael S. Dinniman, Peter G. Stutton

CCPO Publications

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) experiences both the highest ice shelf melt rates and the highest biological productivity in West Antarctica. Using 19 years of satellite data and modelling output, we investigate the long-term influence of environmental factors on the phytoplankton bloom in the Amundsen Sea (ASP) and Pine Island (PIP) polynyas. We test the prevailing hypothesis that changes in ice shelf melt rate could drive interannual variability in the polynyas' surface chlorophyll-a (chl a) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). We find that the interannual variability and long-term change in glacial meltwater may play an important role in …

On The Contribution Of The Gulf Stream To High Frequency Coastal Sea Level Variability, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Long-term Atlantic Ocean and Gulf Stream (GS) variability were linked in past studies to coastal sea level (CSL) change along the U.S. East Coast - a weakening GS can lead to rise in CSL and increased coastal flooding. However, high frequency variability (HFV) in CSL is, in most cases, attributed to atmospheric weather events. This study is focused on HFV (intraseasonal variations with periods between similar to 1 week and similar to 2 months) in the GS and in CSL. First, wavelet and spectral analysis of observations of the Florida Current transport and CSL characterized the HFV in the data, …

Results Of The Second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (Isomip+), Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, Qin Zhou

CCPO Publications

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice …

Basal Melting Variability Of The Ross Ice Shelf From Mixing Ratios Of Simulated Water Masses (1993-2018) And Potential Climatic Drivers, Enrico Pochini, Andrea Bergamasco, Florence Colleoni, Manuel Bensi, Giorgio Budillon, Pasquale Castagno, Michael S. Dinniman, Pierpaolo Falco, Emanuele Forte, Vedrana Kovačević, Stefanie L. Mack

CCPO Publications

Several water masses circulate under the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), the largest ice shelf in Antarctica, each causing basal melting with a specific spatio-temporal pattern. To investigate these patterns and their variability, we applied a mixing ratio analysis to simulated water masses from a new numerical ocean model of the Ross Sea. The simulation, which was run over 26 years (1993–2018) and which includes the RIS cavity, shows good agreement with seaborne and mooring observations. The total RIS basal melt rate is 90 Gt/yr on average, and is caused mostly by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) (68%), which enters the …

Using Remote Sensing Technology To Develop A Framework For Improving Hydrologic Models, Marissa Cook

Theses, Dissertations and Capstones

With increased storm intensity due to climate change and urbanization, flash flooding has become an increasingly significant issue globally and regionally. Although the factors influencing urban flash flooding are well-known, there is a growing need for technology to accurately and remotely predict the chance of a flash flood occurring from any given rain event to give people time to prepare. This study aims to use multispectral satellite imagery to provide a framework for improving near real-time flood predictions in an urban area of a high gradient, fourth order stream impacted by flooding. Specifically, we utilize satellite imagery to create the …

Sedimentological And Geochemical Investigation Of The Origin Of Upper Pennsylvanian Black Shales, East-Central Appalachian Basin, Tyler Hickey

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

In the east-central Allegheny foreland basin, laminated black shales overlying Upper Pennsylvanian Glenshaw Fm. coal seams record paleoenvironmental conditions associated with the termination of peat swamp deposition before, during, and after the Carboniferous Coal Forest Collapse (CCFC), a major paleobotanical evolutionary event during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA) that contributed to extinction of lepidodendrons near the Desmoinesian-Missourian boundary (~306 Ma). Previous investigations of the CCFC commonly implicate an episode of aridification during intensification of LPIA glaciation that stressed the lepidodendrons beyond their ecological tipping point; however, the cause of this aridification is unclear. An investigation of Glenshaw Fm. black …

Flow Regime Shifts And Channel Morphological Adjustments In Response To Changing Climate Patterns: Examples From Gasconade River, Missouri, Usa, Katherine E. Brand

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Recent changes in climate patterns due to anthropogenic inputs (i.e. greenhouse gases/CO₂) have caused alterations to precipitation events leading to altered flow regimes. Changes in the magnitude and frequency of flood events results in physical adjustments to river morphology, including changes in width and depth. As rivers experience more frequent and larger flood events, they accommodate by changing their morphological characteristics. The Gasconade River, a tributary of the Missouri River located in southcentral Missouri, USA, has exhibited recent patterns of acute bank erosion with limited understanding of its causes and effects on the river. This study aims to understand how …

A Hybrid Cnn-Lstm Surrogate Model For Hyper-Resolution Spatiotemporal Flood Forecasting In Norfolk, Virginia, Yidi Wang, Jonathan L. Goodall, Chetan Kumar, Diana Mcspadden, Sergio A. Barbosa, Binata Roy, Ali Shahabi, Navid Tahvildari

Data Science Faculty Publications

Study region

Norfolk, Virginia, United States

Study focus

Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features.

New hydrologic insights for …

Technological Interventions For Reducing Climate Change Impacts On Health: An Overview Of Future Possibilities, Sujatha Alla, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Bawa Singh

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Globally, over five million deaths annually are attributed to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change, such as heatwaves, hurricanes, wildfires, droughts, and floods, which create health crises and economic losses. The 2015 Paris Declaration emphasized climate technology mechanisms, including research and development, to enhance resilience and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Biotechnological advancements have mitigated about 20% of economic losses since the 1960s, highlighting technology’s potential to address climate-induced health risks.

A Two-Stage Changepoint-Copula Framework For Non-Stationary Count Time Series: Application To Tropical Cyclones, Md Iqbal Hossain, Norou Diawara

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Cross-basin tropical cyclone variability may exhibit complex, non-linear dependence structures influenced by large-scale climate modes and potential regime shifts. Reliance on traditional linear correlation measures without accounting for structural changes can therefore lead to misleading interpretations of global storm relationships. This study investigates the regional dependence structures of tropical cyclone counts across six major ocean basins (NA, ENP, WNP, NI, SI, and SP) from 1980 to 2024. We adopt a two-stage analytical framework integrating changepoint detection and copula modeling to address non-stationarity in both marginal distributions and dependence structures. First, we identify a significant structural break in the year 2000 …

Climate Change Impacts On Hydrology In The Upper James Watershed, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Hydrological modeling of the Upper James Watershed (UJW), Virginia, is critical for predicting water availability, flood management, agriculture, ecosystem protection, and hydropower production under increasing climate change. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is applied to evaluate climate change impacts on key hydrological components within the watershed. Future climate conditions were assessed for the near (NF: 2026-2050), mid (MF: 2051-2075), and far (FF: 2076-2100) periods using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5. Climate data were bias-corrected using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM) and used to drive the HEC-HMS model. Results project …

Assessing Climate Change Impacts On Wildfire Risk In Central Appalachian Forests Of The Eastern United States, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Wildfire risk is increasing in the eastern U.S., yet spatial and climate-driven assessments remain limited. This study evaluates climate change impacts on wildfire risk in the Upper James Watershed (UJW) using baseline (2000–2019), near-future (2021–2040), and far-future (2061–2080) projections from a 12-model CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) ensemble under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. A wildfire risk model was developed in ArcGIS Pro using nine key factors and validated with MODIS hotspot data, showing good agreement between modeled risk patterns and observed fire occurrences (NOF = 0.21, RMSE = 4.20, MAE = 3.37). Baseline risk was primarily driven by land cover, fire-lookout …

Nature-Based Solutions For Urban Resilience And Environmental Justice In Underserved Coastal Communities: A Case Study On Oakleaf Forest In Norfolk, Va, Farzaneh Soflaei, Mujde Erten-Unal, Carol L. Considine, Faeghe Borhani

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Climate change and sea-level change (SLC) are intensifying flooding in U.S. coastal communities, with disproportionate impacts on Black and minority neighborhoods that face displacement, economic hardship, and heightened health risks. In Norfolk, Virginia, sea levels are projected to rise by at least 0.91 m (3 ft) by 2100, placing underserved neighborhoods such as Oakleaf Forest at particular risk. This study investigates the compounded impacts of flooding at both the building and urban scales, situating the work within the framework of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs). A mixed-method, community-based approach was employed, integrating literature review, field observations, and community …

Analysis Of The Thermodynamic Variables Associated With Hawaiian Extreme Precipitation Using The Fraction Of Attributable Risk (Far), Matthew J. Sinnenberg

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The Hawaiian Islands experience extreme maxima in precipitation that vary spatially, by season, and in response to different teleconnection patterns. Due to the islands’ unique geography, they are not well-resolved by global climate models, necessitating a focused assessment to identify  climatological trends. In this study, a probability-based analysis was conducted on regionally averaged thermodynamic variables relevant to the formation of extreme events. The primary objective was to evaluate whether changes in the occurrence of extreme conditions have occurred and to understand how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences these occurrence rates.

Hourly data from ERA5 spanning 1980-2019 were resampled to …

Historical Changes In The Seasonality And Variability Of Daily Surface Air Temperature In Era5 And Cmip6 Models, Zirui Wan

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This thesis investigates historical changes in the seasonality and daily variability of near-surface air temperature (Tas) during 1950–2024 using ERA5 reanalysis and simulations from 21 CMIP6 models. ERA5 and CMIP6 show broadly similar climatological structures of the Tas seasonal cycle and variability, with considerable inter-model discrepancies. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 show decreasing Tas variability over northern mid-high latitudes, while Tas variability increases in the low latitudes in ERA5 but changes little in CMIP6 multi-model mean (MMM) due to different change patterns among the models. To investigate the mechanisms of historical Tas variability changes, I analyzed the relationships between Tas variability …

Retrieval And Characterization Of Aerosol Optical And Microphysical Properties Following Pyrocumulonimbus Events From Sageiii/Iss, Vishal G. Bagadia

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in maintaining global radiative balance with impacts to stratospheric equilibria through physical and chemical forcings.  Stratospheric aerosol size distributions, in particular aerosol size, are vitally important in determining the physical and chemical impacts of aerosols in the stratosphere. The representation of aerosol size and size distributions in most climate models contain large uncertainties due to relatively sparse sampling of stratospheric aerosols. Occultation measurements from satellite provide an unique opportunity to retrieve the aerosol size distribution using high quality aerosol extinction measurements. A retrieval algorithm is developed to characterize size distributions of stratospheric aerosols from …