Climate Commons^™

Umphlett Qci June 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Water Supplies Recovering

Heavy Rains Cause Flooding

Agriculture Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson

Publications

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from …

The Effect Of The El Nino-Southern Oscillation On U.S. Regional And Coastal Sea Level, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, K. -Y. Kim, R. S. Nerem, L. P. Atkinson, P. R. Thompson

CCPO Publications

Although much of the focus on future sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, on shorter time scales, internal climate variability can contribute significantly to regional sea level. Such sea level variability should be taken into consideration when planning efforts to mitigate the effects of future sea level change. In this study, we quantify the contribution to regional sea level of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis (CSEOF) of the long reconstructed sea level data set and of a set of U.S. tide gauges, two global modes dominated by Pacific Ocean …

Distributions Of Ice Supersaturation And Ice Crystals From Airborne Observations In Relation To Upper Tropospheric Dynamical Boundaries, Minghui Diao, Jorgen Jensen, Laura Pan, Cameron Homeyer, Shawn Honomichl, James Bresch, Aaron Bansemer

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Ice supersaturation (ISS) is the prerequisite condition for cirrus cloud formation. To examine multiscale dynamics' influences on ISS formation, we analyze in situ aircraft observations (~200 m scale) over North America in coordinates relative to dynamical boundaries in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Two case studies demonstrate that ISS formation is likely influenced by mesoscale uplifting, small-scale waves, and turbulence. A collective analysis of 15 flights in April–June 2008 shows that the top layers of ISS and ice crystal distributions are strongly associated with thermal tropopause height. In addition, the average occurrence frequencies of ISS and ice crystals on …

Climate Change Assessment In Columbia River Basin (Crb) Using Copula Based On Coupling Of Temperature And Precipitation, Yueyue Qin

Dissertations and Theses

The multi downscaled-scenario products allow us to better assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Joint Probability distribution functions (PDFs), of both the climatic variables, might help better understand the interdependence of the two, and thus in-turn help in accessing the future with confidence. In the present study, we have used multi-modelled statistically downscaled ensemble of precipitation and temperature variables. The dataset used is multi-model ensemble of 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled product from CMIP5 daily dataset, using the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, generated at Portland State …

You're Going To Need A Bigger Boat..., Michelle Hamor

May 22, 2015: Megaproject Protective Structures for Hampton Roads

No abstract provided.

Planning And Design For Hurricane Protection With Sea Level Rise, Bob Ivarson

May 22, 2015: Megaproject Protective Structures for Hampton Roads

No abstract provided.

Reducing Coastal Risk – Structural Protection Around Greater New Orleans, Rick Luettich

May 22, 2015: Megaproject Protective Structures for Hampton Roads

No abstract provided.

Springtime Melt Onset On Arctic Sea Ice From Satellite Observations And Related Atmospheric Conditions, Angela C. Bliss

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The timing of snowmelt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice derived from passive microwave satellite data is examined by determining the melting area (in km²) on a daily basis for the spring and summer melt season months over the 1979 – 2012 data record. The date of MO on Arctic sea ice has important implications for the amount of total solar energy absorbed by the ice-ocean system in a given year. Increasingly early mean MO dates have been recorded over the 34-year data record as evidenced by statistically significant trends of 6.6 days decade^-1 over the extent …

Boom Or Bust? Mapping Out The Known Unknowns Of Global Shale Gas Production Potential, Jérôme Hilaire, Nico Bauer, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

To assess the global production costs of shale gas, we combine global top-down data with detailed bottom-up information. Studies solely based on top-down approaches do not adequately account for the heterogeneity of shale gas deposits and hence, are unlikely to appropriately capture the extraction costs of shale gas. We design and provide an expedient bottom-up method based on publicly available US data to compute the levelized costs of shale gas extraction. Our results indicate the existence of economically attractive areas but also reveal a dramatic cost increase as lower-quality reservoirs are exploited. At the global level, our best estimate suggests …

Adolescent Girls, Human Rights And The Expanding Climate Emergency, Holly G. Atkinson, Judith Bruce

Publications and Research

Many adolescent girls—the poorest girls in the poorest communities—already live in an “emergency.” Humanitarian crises only amplify the call on their coping and caring capacities, while exacerbating their vulnerabilities. The frequency and intensity of emergencies, including natural disasters, conflicts, and infectious disease outbreaks such as Ebola, appear to be growing.¹ These emergencies threaten entire communities and whole countries, often with global implications. Many become virtually permanent. The authors urge key actors responding to both the threats and opportunities that climate change poses to understand adolescent girls as exceptionally at risk on the one hand, and as exceptionally resilient and …

Burdens And Benefits Of Climate Change Solutions: A Case Study Of Climate Change Skeptics And Deniers In Rural Nevada, Patricia Dutcher

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This dissertation is an ethnographic case study of climate change Doubtfuls and Dismissives with the purpose of understanding their perceptions of water use and renewable energy in the context of a changing climate. I also investigate the information sources and messages they use to understand climate change and climate change solutions. The Global Warming's Six Americas project identifies climate change Doubtfuls and Dismissives as one third of the American public, and an active voice in US climate change policy (Maibach et al, 2009; Leiserowitz et al., 2014). Doubtfuls are people with skeptical attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change, while Dismissives deny …

Trace Element Variations In A Stalagmite From Southwest Mexico: Implications For Paleoclimate, Chad Michael Crotty

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The combination of stable isotope and trace element concentrations in speleothems has been shown to be a valuable indicator for interpreting paleoclimatic conditions. Anomalous spikes in trace element concentrations have also been shown to indicate anthropogenic environmental changes to the surface, such as deforestation events. In this study, trace element concentrations (24Mg, 25Mg, 84Sr, 88Sr, 137Ba, and 238U) of a stalagmite (JX-6) from Juxtlahuaca Cave, in southwestern Mexico, were measured using an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). These trace element concentrations were compared to previously analyzed δ18O and δ13C values from JX-6, and to the results of previous studies …

Framing Reality: Portrayals Of Climate Change In The "Las Vegas Review-Journal", 1997-2014, Jason Ryan Holley

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Discussions of human-caused climate change have become an increasingly salient artifact of various media in recent years. With regard to print media in particular, scholars have uncovered general increases in the frequencies with which climate change articles are published, tantamount to the annual reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) advocating the detriments of human activities (particularly carbon dioxide emissions) on the natural environment. Among such reports—be they scientific or anecdotal—writers and journalists have had to interpret the ongoing discussions and evidence surrounding climate change, and develop schemas (or frames) in which to situate arguments. These arguments have …

Recent Shoreline Erosion Rates Along Black River Bay, Jamaica: Erosion And Recovery After Hurricane Ivan In 2004, Karen Louise Zelzer

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Rising sea level is threatening coastal areas, particularly those in the Caribbean which rely heavily on tourism and marine resources to support local economies. The purpose of this study is to analyze shoreline position along the south coast of Jamaica to determine the locations and rates of coastal change. IKONOS satellite imagery sets for 2003, 2007 and 2012 were used to monitor land use and shoreline changes along Black River Bay, including Galleon Beach Fish Sanctuary, in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica. In particular, the effect of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 on shoreline changes was evaluated. Erosion rates were significantly higher during …

Quantifying The Sensitivity Of Maximum, Limiting, And Potential Tropical Cyclone Intensity To Sst: Observations Versus The Fsu/ Coaps Global Climate Model, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Tim Larow

Publications

No abstract provided.

Twentieth Century Dust Lows And The Weakening Of The Westerly Winds Over The Tibetan Plateau, Bjorn Grigholm, P. A. Mayewski, S. Kang, Y. Zhang, U. Morgenstern, M. Schwikowski, Susan D. Kaspari, V. Aizen, E. Aizen, N. Takeuchi, K. A. Maasch, S. Birkel, M. Handley, S. Sneed

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

Understanding past atmospheric dust variability is necessary to put modern atmospheric dust into historical context and assess the impacts of dust on the climate. In Asia, meteorological data of atmospheric dust is temporally limited, beginning only in the 1950s. High‐resolution ice cores provide the ideal archive for reconstructing preinstrumental atmospheric dust concentrations. Using a ~500 year (1477–1982 A.D.) annually resolved calcium (Ca) dust proxy from a Tibetan Plateau (TP) ice core, we demonstrate the lowest atmospheric dust concentrations in the past ~500 years during the latter twentieth century. Declines in late nineteenth to twentieth century Ca concentrations significantly correspond with …

Accelerated Glacier Melt On Snow Dome, Mount Olympus, Washington, Usa, Due To Deposition Of Black Carbon And Mineral Dust From Wildfire, Susan D. Kaspari, S. Mckenzie Skiles, Ian Delaney, Daniel Dixon, Thomas H. Painter

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

Assessing the potential for black carbon (BC) and dust deposition to reduce albedo and accelerate glacier melt is of interest in Washington because snow and glacier melt are an important source of water resources, and glaciers are retreating. In August 2012 on Snow Dome, Mount Olympus, Washington, we measured snow surface spectral albedo and collected surface snow samples and a 7 m ice core. The snow and ice samples were analyzed for iron (Fe, used as a dust proxy) via inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry, total impurity content gravimetrically, BC using a single-particle soot photometer (SP2), and charcoal …

Comparing The Model-Simulated Global Warming Signal To Observations Using Empirical Estimates Of Unforced Noise, Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2015, Martha Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Partnership spotlight.............2

AWDN information.................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................3

Product highlight....................4

Research highlight..................4

Outreach events......................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6