Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Polarimetric Radar Signatures Of Supercell Thunderstorms In Tropical Cyclones, Emily Paltz, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE: Research Products

Background It is necessary for operational meteorologists to forecast quickly and accurately when storms have the potential of producing severe weather such as tornadoes or hail. Presently, radar represents the most effective way to monitor storms in real time. The National Weather Service recently upgraded the national radar network to polarimetric capability. Much time and resources have been devoted to understanding the development of Great Plains supercells such that polarimetric radar schematics have been developed for them. Little, however, has been done for tropical cyclone supercells. In this study we wish to determine typical polarimetric radar structure for supercells in …

Crop Modeling For Assessing And Mitigating The Impacts Of Extreme Climatic Events On The Us Agriculture System, Zhenong Jin

Open Access Dissertations

The US agriculture system is the world’s largest producer of maize and soybean, and typically supplies more than one-third of their global trading. Nearly 90% of the US maize and soybean production is rainfed, thus is susceptible to climate change stressors such as heat waves and droughts. Process-based crop and cropping system models are important tools for climate change impact assessments and risk management. As data- science is becoming a new frontier for agriculture growth, the incoming decade calls for operational platforms that use hyper-local growth monitoring, high-resolution real-time weather and satellite data assimilation and cropping system modeling to help …

Climate Change And Hazardous Convective Weather In The United States: Insights From High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling, Kimberly A. Hoogewind

Open Access Dissertations

Global climate model (GCM) projections increasingly suggest that large-scale environmental conditions favorable for hazardous convective weather (HCW) may increase in frequency in the future due to anthropogenic climate change. However, this storm environment-based approach is undoubtedly limited by the assumption that convective-scale phenomena will be realized within these environments. The spatial resolution of GCMs remains much too coarse to adequately represent the scales at which severe convective storms occur, including processes that may lead to storm initiation. With the advancement of computing resources, however, it has now become feasible to explicitly represent deep convective storms within a high-resolution regional climate …

The Wais Divide Deep Ice Core Wd2014 Chronology – Part 2: Annual-Layer Counting (0–31 Ka Bp), Michael Sigl, Tyler J. Fudge, Mai Winstrup, Jihong Cole-Dai, David Ferris

Dartmouth Scholarship

We present the WD2014 chronology for the upper part (0–2850 m; 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core. The chronology is based on counting of annual layers observed in the chemical, dust and electrical conductivity records. These layers are caused by seasonal changes in the source, transport, and deposition of aerosols. The measurements were interpreted manually and with the aid of two automated methods. We validated the chronology by comparing to two high-accuracy, absolutely dated chronologies. For the Holocene, the cosmogenic isotope records of Be from WAIS Divide and C for IntCal13 demonstrated …

Effects Of Meteorological Conditions On Sulfur Dioxide Air Pollution In The North China Plain During Winter Of 2006–2015, Chase C. Calkins

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The last decade has seen frequent occurrences of severe air pollution episodes of high concentration in SO₂ during winters in the North China Plain (NCP). Using satellite data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulations, and National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP) meteorological reanalyzes, this study examines meteorological and synoptic conditions associated with these air pollution episodes during winters of 2006-2015. OMI-based data suggest a large decrease (~30% in area average) of emission since 2010. Statistical analyzes show that meteorological conditions associated with the top 10% of OMI-based high days are found in average to …

Methods For Passive Remote Turbulence Characterization In The Planetary Boundary Layer, Lee R. Burchett

Theses and Dissertations

Several methods are presented which allow for the index of refraction structure function constant, C²_n , for visible light or IR systems to be determined remotely and passively using a combination of Numerical Weather Prediction, radar, and/or cell phone signals. These methods build on and extend existing techniques and theory, and are shown to be more accurate throughout the year than standard methods. Comparisons are made to 880nm scintillometer measurements of C²_n in a temperate suburban and a rural high-desert environment.

Upscaling Methane Emission Hotspots In Boreal Peatlands, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brucher, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin

Biological and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Upscaling the properties and effects of small-scale surface heterogeneities to larger scales is a challenging issue in land surface modeling. We developed a novel approach to upscale local methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of the water table pattern generated by the Hummock–Hollow model, a microtopography resolving model for peatland hydrology. We introduce this parameterization of methane hotspots in a global model-like version of the Hummock–Hollow model that underestimates methane emissions. We tested the robustness of the parameterization by simulating methane emissions for the …

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Air Quality Related Values (Aqrvs) For Northern Great Plains Network (Ngpn) Parks, Effects From Ozone; Visibility Reducing Particles; And Atmospheric Deposition Of Acids, Nutrients And Toxics, Timothy J. Sullivan

United States National Park Service: Publications

Summary

This report describes the Air Quality Related Values (AQRVs) of the Northern Great Plains Network (NGPN). AQRVs are those resources sensitive to air quality and include streams, lakes, soils, vegetation, fish and wildlife, and visibility. This report also describes air pollutant emissions and air quality in NGPN, and their effects on AQRVs. The primary pollutants likely to affect AQRVs include nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) compounds (nitrate [NO₃^-], ammonium [NH₄⁺], and sulfate [SO₄^2-]); ground-level ozone (O₃); haze-causing particles; and airborne toxics.

The 13 parks that are included in …

A Model Of The Effects Of Deforestation On Local Climate In The North Cascades, Monica R. H. Jasper

Geography and the Environment: Graduate Student Capstones

Changes in areal extent of land cover types may lead to alterations in the surface energy budget that contribute to anthropogenic climate forcing. This study examines the effects of deforestation in the Cascade Range on local temperature. Temperature sensors were installed in 14 forest stands, taking measurements for one year. Estimated tree age, circumference, and species were recorded to calculate stand density index. Satellite imagery was used to calculate shade fraction from spectral mixture analysis, which is a proxy for canopy structure and density. These data were used to construct seasonal cycles of temperature to model variation with stand density …

Nitrous Oxide In The Atmosphere: First Measurements Of A Lower Thermospheric Source, Patrick E. Sheese, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Peter F. Bernath, Bernd Funke

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, as well as one of the most significant anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere. The satellite-based instrument Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer has been observing the Earth's limb since 2004 and derives profiles of N₂O volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere to the lower thermosphere. The resulting climatology shows that N₂O is continuously produced in the lower thermosphere via energetic particle precipitation and enhanced N₂O is present at all latitudes, during all seasons. The results are consistent with an N₂O …

Long-Term Trend Analysis Of Precipitation And Air Temperature For Kentucky, United States, Somsubhra Chattopadhyay, Dwayne R. Edwards

Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications

Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed) pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year) for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky). Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous …

Agriculture Causes Nitrate Fertilization Of Remote Alpine Lakes, Elizabeth J. Hundey, Sam S.D. Russell, Fred Longstaffe, Katrina A. Moser

Earth Sciences Publications

Humans have altered Earth’s nitrogen cycle so dramatically that reactive nitrogen (Nr) has doubled. This has increased Nr in aquatic ecosystems, which can lead to reduced water quality and ecosystem health. Apportioning sources of Nr to specific ecosystems, however, continues to be challenging, despite this knowledge being critical for mitigation and protection of water resources. Here we use D¹⁷O, d¹⁸O and d¹⁵N from Uinta Mountain (Utah, USA) snow, inflow and lake nitrate in combination with a Bayesian-based stable isotope mixing model, to show that at least 70% of nitrates in aquatic systems are anthropogenic …

Measuring The Seeds Of Ion Outflow: Auroral Sounding Rocket Observations Of Low-Altitude Ion Heating And Circulation, P. A. Fernandes, K. A. Lynch, M. Zettergren, D. L. Hampton, T. A. Bekkeng, Et Al.

Publications

We present an analysis of in situ measurements from the MICA (Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling in the Alfvén Resonator) nightside auroral sounding rocket with comparisons to a multifluid ionospheric model. MICA made observations at altitudes below 325 km of the thermal ion kinetic particle distributions that are the origins of ion outflow. Late flight, in the vicinity of an auroral arc, we observe frictional processes controlling the ion temperature. Upflow of these cold ions is attributed to either the ambipolar field resulting from the heated electrons or possibly to ion-neutral collisions. We measure convection away from the arc (poleward) and downflows of …

Evidence Of Dispersion And Refraction Of A Spectrally Broad Gravity Wave Packet In The Mesopause Region Observed By The Na Lidar And Mesospheric Temperature Mapper Above Logan, Utah, Tao Yuan, Christopher J. Heale, Jonathan B. Snively, Xuguang Cai, Pierre-Dominique Pautet, C. Fish, Yucheng Zhao, Michael J. Taylor, William R. Pendleton Jr., V. Wickwar, Nicholas John Mitchell

Publications

Gravity wave packets excited by a source of finite duration and size possess a broad frequency and wave number spectrum and thus span a range of temporal and spatial scales. Observing at a single location relatively close to the source, the wave components with higher frequency and larger vertical wavelength dominate at earlier times and at higher altitudes, while the lower frequency components, with shorter vertical wavelength, dominate during the latter part of the propagation. Utilizing observations from the Na lidar at Utah State University and the nearby Mesospheric Temperature Mapper at Bear Lake Observatory (41.9°N, 111.4°W), we investigate a …

Evidence Of Dispersion And Refraction Of A Spectrally Broad Gravity Wave Packet In The Mesopause Region Observed By The Na Lidar And Mesospheric Temperature Mapper Above Logan, Utah, T. Yuan, C. J. Heale, J. B. Snively, X. Cai, P.- D. Pautet, C. Fish, Y. Zhao, M. J. Taylor, W. R. Pendleton Jr., V. Wickwar, N. J. Mitchell

Publications

"Gravity wave packets excited by a source of finite duration and size possess a broad frequency and wave number spectrum and thus span a range of temporal and spatial scales. Observing at a single location relatively close to the source, the wave components with higher frequency and larger vertical wavelength dominate at earlier times and at higher altitudes, while the lower frequency components, with shorter vertical wavelength, dominate during the latter part of the propagation. Utilizing observations fromthe Na lidar at Utah State University and the nearby Mesospheric Temperature Mapper at Bear Lake Observatory (41.9°N, 111.4°W), we investigate a unique …

Retrival Of Atmospheric Aerosol Size Distributions Using Stochastic Particle Swarm Optimization, Benjamin D. Nault-Maurer

All College Thesis Program, 2016-2019

A stochastic particle swarm optimization (SPSO) technique’s robustness is studied in regards to atmospheric aerosol size distribution estimations for a bimodal distribution that focuses on Aitken and accumulation mode aerosols. The SPSO method is used to calculate a set of 11 aerosol optical depth (AOD) values based on a size distribution and match them to an inputted set of AOD values. This method is tested using computer generated AOD values with fixed distribution parameters, generated AOD values with varying distribution parameters, two sets of AOD measurements in clear conditions, and one set of AOD values in hazy conditions. The SPSO …

Analysis Of The Precipitation Detection Algorithm For The Geonor T-200b Precipitation Gauge To Improve Accuracy, Megan Lerman, Robert K. Goodrich

STAR Program Research Presentations

In an effort to improve the precipitation detection algorithm for the Geonor All Weather Precipitation Gauge, an automated truth algorithm has been created to detect errors in the original algorithm. The original algorithm detects precipitation in real time and uses the rate of precipitation to indicate an event. The automated truth does not detect in real time, and focuses on precipitation accumulation to indicate an event. Since the automated truth is delayed, it is able to consider the data collected before and after the point it is analyzing. The automated truth is already more accurate than the original algorithm but …

General Solution Of The Wind Triangle Problem And The Critical Tailwind Angle, Nihad E. Daidzic

Aviation Department Publications

A general analytical solution of the navigational wind-triangle problem and the calculation of the critical tailwind angle are presented in this study among other findings. Any crosswind component will effectively create a headwind component on fixed course tracks. The meaning of a route track is lost with excessive crosswinds representing the bifurcation point between the possible and the impossible navigational solutions. Any wind of constant direction and speed will effectively reduce groundspeed and increase time-of-flight on closed-loop multi-segment flights. Effective wind track component consists, in general, of true and induced components. The average groundspeed of multiple-leg flights is a harmonic …