Dynamic Systems Commons^™

Human-Centered Modeling Of Traffic As A Complex System, Poorendra P. Ramlall

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Traffic systems are driven not only by motion, but by interaction: vehicles influence one another, drivers continuously adapt to surrounding behaviour, and cognitive processes shape decisions that can propagate through the flow of traffic. Understanding these layered interactions is essential for improving traffic safety and for designing the next generation of intelligent, connected, and automated transportation systems. This PhD research develops a multiscale, data-driven framework for identifying, modelling, and ultimately interpreting interaction structure in traffic systems. The work first established an information-theoretic basis for this problem, demonstrating how information flow can uncover directional relationships in traffic dynamics and help infer …

Supply Chain Analysis: The Oregonator Autocatalytic Case Study, Abigail Butcher

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Understanding stability in complex supply chains remains a critical challenge due to nonlinear feedback, delayed responses, and sensitivity to parameter changes. This project presents a novel framework that applies bifurcation analysis to evaluate system stability, using the Oregonator autocatalytic chemical reaction model as an analog for supply chain dynamics. A parameter sweep of key model variables, particularly the stoichiometric factor f and the reaction rate constants k, is used to identify transitions between stable and oscillatory regimes. These transitions provide insight into how variations in feedback strength can drive instability in real-world systems. The framework will then be extended to …

Numerical Modeling Of Thermo-Poroelasticity Using Finite Element Method, Maya Mckean

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

We propose a numerical method for solving and modeling thermo-poroelasticity problems using a finite element formulation. Thermo-poroelasticity models describe the coupled interaction between mechanical deformation, fluid flow, and heat transfer in specific materials or environments over time. These models demonstrate the evolution of displacement, pressure, and temperature; we compute these fields in this work using backward Euler time discretization and Enriched Galerkin finite element spatial discretization. For these computations we used FreeFEM, a partial differential equation solver that uses the finite element method, which produced our numerical results. We then compared these values with the expected analytical solution. This was …

Ai-Driven Scheduling Algorithms For Private Aviation, Tayan Benson, Jessica Buskey, Gabriel Camacho, Caitlyn A. Gabrinowitz

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Private aviation scheduling is complex and dynamic, requiring frequent aircraft repositioning based on demand and operational constraints, unlike fixed commercial airline schedules. As fleets grow beyond 300 aircraft, traditional deterministic methods become too slow, leading to the use of approaches such as genetic algorithms, but neural network-based methods have not seen in-depth exploration. This project models aircraft scheduling as a network, where airports and flights form a graph. It explores advanced AI methods, including graph neural networks and spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs), to capture both network structure and time constraints. The goal is to generate efficient daily schedules from …

The Motion Of A Falling Object Under Linear Drag And How Differential Equations Can Be Used To Find It, Lukas Estrella

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

This project, "The Motion of a Falling Object Under Linear Drag and How Differential Equations Can Be Used To Find It," investigates the motion of a falling object subject to air resistance through a combination of mathematical modeling and fundamental physical principles. The analysis is grounded in Newton’s second law, which yields a differential equation describing the forces acting on the object. Assuming a linear drag model, in which the resistive force is proportional to velocity, the governing equation reduces to a first-order ordinary differential equation for velocity. This equation is solved using the integrating factor method, yielding an explicit …

Modeling Population Growth With Logistic And Modified Logistic Equations, Mihil Dimpal Patel

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

Population growth models are essential tools for understanding how biological populations change over time under environmental constraints. This study examines population dynamics by comparing the classical exponential growth model with the logistic growth model. While exponential growth assumes unlimited resources and results in unbounded population increase, the logistic model incorporates a carrying capacity that limits growth as resources become scarce. To better represent real-world conditions, the logistic model is extended by introducing modifications such as harvesting terms and time-varying carrying capacities, which account for external removal of individuals and changing environmental limits. The equilibria of these models are determined, and …

Criticality In A Heterogeneous Neutron Transport Rod Model, Samuel Kaleb Crowford

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

This work studies the stochastic behavior of neutron populations in a one-dimensional rod model using Monte Carlo simulation. The first part of this project reproduces the computational results of Dumonteil, Horton, Kyprianou, and Zoia (2025) by independently implementing the Monte Carlo algorithm described in their article, with the asymptotic behavior of the first moment analyzed in relation to the dominant eigenvalue and adjoint eigenfunction of the neutron transport operator. The model is then extended to a heterogeneous setting by introducing a central region where fission is suppressed. A global expectation over initial positions and directions is used to estimate the …

A Simulation Assessment Of The 'Law Of One Price', Caleb Wilkins

Computational and Data Sciences (MS) Theses

The ‘law of one price’ is an appealing notion regarding pricing of tradeable commodities that are priced in different currencies. It states that the prices of the same good in different markets should be equal after adjustment for exchange rates and that equality should persist through exchange rate fluctuations.

My research simulates the market conditions that should precipitate the ‘law of one price.’ Data was obtained from the simulated trade between algorithmic artificial intelligence agents that operated under induced boundedly rational market behaviors. Trade took place in two initially separate markets, a high-price market with a higher equilibrium price and …

A Categorical Framework For Modeling Genetic Drift, Taylor G. Mendes

Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal

Genetic drift describes changes in allele frequencies that arise from chance sampling in finite populations. This paper develops a categorical framework for organizing the structural features of drift. Population states are modeled as objects, evolutionary transitions as morphisms, reversible transitions as groupoid morphisms, and structure-preserving comparisons between models as functors. Group actions are used to describe deterministic evolutionary operators such as mutation and selection, while orbits and fixed points identify reachable allele-frequency states and stable absorbing outcomes. Universal properties are then used to describe drift as a coherence condition connecting stochastic transitions with deterministic evolutionary maps. The resulting framework complements …

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …

A Mathematical Model For Managing Diphtheria Outbreaks In Nigeria Via Vaccination, Enhanced Surveillance, Effective Quarantine, And Social Distancing Measures, Hycienth Ortser Orapine, Nyiutya Cephas Ine, Dekera Jacob Washachi, Ali Audu Baidu, Lubem Matthew Kwaghkor

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Diphtheria is a highly infectious respiratory and skin disease that poses a significant threat to global public health. In Nigeria, children and adults with low immunity remain at high risk due to recurring annual outbreaks in the last decade, with a death rate of as high as 68.8\%. This paper presents a deterministic compartmental model to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions implemented by the Nigerian government. The model's mathematical and epidemiological validity is established through proofs of non-negativity and boundedness. The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is derived, and stability analysis confirms that the diphtheria-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically …

Stochastic Analysis Of Epidemic Size And Peak Infection In An Svir Model With Imperfect Vaccine And External Source Of Infection, María Gamboa Pérez

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

The dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak are studied under a stochastic framework in a closed population where individuals are homogeneously mixed. A vaccination program is implemented in the community prior to the start of the epidemic. The administered vaccine is imperfect, meaning that vaccinated individuals may still become infected upon contact with infected individuals. The mathematical Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered (SVIR) model describing the evolution of the epidemic is formulated as an absorbing, continuous-time, three-dimensional Markov chain with compartments for vaccinated, susceptible, infected and recovered individuals. The aim of this study is to characterize two fundamental epidemiological quantities: the maximum number of …

Modelling Of Dust Devil Flow Dynamics: Effects Of The Sharpness Parameter On Velocity And Pressure, Deepanshu Kumar, Hossein Jafari

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This work discusses the development of a straightforward model of dust devils, demonstrating a method for estimating wind speed and pressure. The current model incorporates momentum equations and the mass conservation equation for steady, axisymmetric, inviscid, and incompressible flow. In this model, the radial velocity is first considered, which is restricted in both the radial and axial directions. The sharpness parameter is also incorporated into the radial velocity formulation, as described by Vatistas model. Using the radial velocity as a foundation, we derive the azimuthal and axial velocities. The study further evaluates the pressure. Notably, for large values of the …

Dynamical Behavior, Extinction And Persistence In A Stochastic Delayed Two-Strain Epidemic Model With A Generalized Crowley-Martin Incidence Rate, Amina Allali, Dounia Bentaleb, Saida Amine

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This paper develops and analyzes a novel delayed stochastic SIR epidemic model with two interacting strains and general incidence functions. By establishing the existence and uniqueness of a positive global solution, the well-posedness of the model under stochastic perturbations is ensured. Extinction occurs when the stochastic reproduction number falls below unity, as demonstrated through Itô calculus and martingale convergence theorems, while persistence is guaranteed under the Crowley–Martin incidence when it exceeds one. Numerical experiments based on the Positive Preserving Truncated Euler–Maruyama (PPTEM) scheme confirm the analytical predictions and highlight the influence of time delay and noise intensity on the long-term …

Tumor–Immune Dynamics With Memory And Time Delay: A Fractional-Order Model With Ctla-4 Regulation, Mutaz Mohammad, Mohyeedden Sweidan, Alexander Trounev, Fathalla Rihan

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

This study develops a fractional-order tumor-immune interaction model incorporating Caputo memory effects, delayed immune activation, and CTLA-4 checkpoint regulation. The model describes the coupled dynamics of tumor cells, CD4$^{+}$ T cells, IFN-$\gamma$, and CTLA-4, and extends classical integer-order tumor-immune models by accounting for hereditary immune responses and biologically motivated latency effects. Theoretical properties, including positivity, boundedness, equilibrium structure, and fractional-order stability, are examined to establish the biological and mathematical consistency of the model. The delayed fractional system is then investigated computationally by comparing several numerical methods, including finite difference discretization, Daubechies wavelet collocation, Euler wavelet collocation, and a predictor-corrector scheme. …

Enhancing Community Engagement Through ‘Nitunze Kilombero’ Mobile App: Case Of Climate Land Use And Cover Management For Kilombero Basin, Ghanima Chanzi, Subira Munishi

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

The Kilombero Basin in southeastern Tanzania faces significant challenges due to rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by climate change, population growth, and unsustainable farming practices. This study assessed the role of community engagement and digital reporting through the 'NITUNZE KILOMBERO', mobile application in supporting water resources management in the basin. The App facilitates real-time reporting of environmental issues, provides educational resources, and enables collaboration between local communities and authorities. A mixed-methods approach, including household surveys and key informant interviews, was employed to assess the app's effectiveness. Results indicate high community awareness of LULC impacts, with 85% …

Physicochemical Properties And Chemical Compositions Of Cashew Nut Shell Liquid Extracted With Carbon Dioxide–Expanded Hexane, Neema Msuya, Joseph Yn Philip, Frank Jacob, Kando K. Janga

Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology (TJET)

Cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) is a mixture of phenolic compounds that can effectively replace commercially available phenols in various applications. This study investigated the physicochemical properties and chemical composition of CNSL extracted using CO₂–expanded hexane (CXH) and compared to the traditional Soxhlet extraction method. Steamed cashew nut shells (sCNS) were used in both cases.  The CXH was carried under varying CO₂-mole fractions (0.468-0.892) and temperatures (20-36 °C) whereas Soxhlet extraction was performed at atmospheric pressure and hexane boiling point. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) with Central Composite Face-Centred Design (CCFD) was employed to evaluate the effect …

(R2124) Impact Of Delay And Awareness On Hiv/Aids Epidemic Model, Debashis Biswas

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

A delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with awareness has been taken here. Essentially, it is mentioned that the disease spreads among the population only through contact (horizontal transmission). The equilibrium points of both the proposed models are investigated, and their stability is discussed. Both models have two types of equilibria, namely the disease-free and the disease positive. The basic reproductive number of both models has been calculated by using the next generation matrix technique. In this paper, the main motivation is to find a way to decrease the disease transmission. Also discussed the impact of delay and awareness on the HIV/AIDS …

(R2138) Analytical Approaches To Integral Equations In The Dynamics Of The Oblate Spheroidal: Earth-Sun-Satellite System, Kumari Ranjana, M. Shahbaz Ullah, M. Javed Idrisi

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The deployment of artificial satellites in different gravitational environments has significantly impacted space exploration. We have introduced the study of artificial satellites under the influence of gravitational forces from oblate spheroids. To confront complex obstacles the myriads of both numerical and analytical techniques have been formulated. Among these methods, a new approach involving the integration of integral equations has been introduced. This innovative approach has been applied to study the trajectories of artificial satellites as they navigate the gravitational influence of oblate spheroids. Suitable kernels have been carefully chosen to solve the integral equations. The solutions have been found and …

Adaptive Intervention Strategies In Co-Evolving Multiplex Networks: A Reinforcement Learning Approach To Real-Time Misinformation Containment, Anjali Ashokrao Bhadre Dr., Harshvardhan Prabhakar Ghongade Dr.

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

The growing transmission of misinformation via social media creates serious challenges to public health, democracy and social cohesion. To date, methods used to contain misinformation rely upon static representations of networks and set rules for interventions. In contrast, this study presents the first Multiplex Adaptive Reinforcement Intervention Network (MARIN), a framework for real-time adaptive intervention in the context of dynamic misinformation transmission using co-evolving multiplex networks and deep reinforcement learning. Unlike past studies that have assumed static network structures, MARIN has the ability to allow for dynamic changes in network topology as a result of both misinformation transmission and intervention …