Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

New Census Reflects Growing U.S. Population Diversity, With Children In The Forefront, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the U.S. population grew by a modest 7.4 percent during the past decade to 331.4 million in April 2020. Yet, there was significant variation in the rate and direction of population change among the numerous racial and Hispanic origin groups that together represent the U.S. population. The net result was a significant increase in racial diversity over the course of the decade, both in the population as a whole, and children in particular. Diversity was geographically widespread and increased in every region of the country.

The nation’s growing racial-ethnic diversity increases the …

Inequities In Job Recovery During The Covid-19 Pandemic: A Year Later, Rogelio Saenz, Corey Sparks, Asiya Validova

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz, Corey Sparks, and Asiya Validova report that in April 2020, after the first two months of significant spread of COVID-19 in the United States, nearly 25 million fewer people had a job. In June 2021, there were still 5.9 million fewer people employed, representing a drop of 3.7 percent in workers since before COVID. Workers of color, women, and those with lower levels of education have consistently had the highest unemployment rates, a trend that persisted through June 2021.

The recovery of the workforce has not been equal, with dramatic differences based on race/ethnicity, …

Modest Population Gains, But Growing Diversity In New Hampshire With Children In The Vanguard, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population grew by a modest 4.6 percent during the past decade to 1,377,500 in April 2020. In contrast, the number of minority residents, defined as those who were other than non-Hispanic Whites, increased by 74.4 percent to 176,900 in 2020. Minority residents now represent 12.8 percent of the state’s population compared to 7.5 percent (101,400) in 2010. Though the minority population grew, a substantial majority of the state’s population remains non-Hispanic White.

Hispanics are the largest minority population in New Hampshire with 59,500 residents, or 4.3 percent of the population. …

New Census Data Reveal Modest Population Growth In New Hampshire Over The Past Decade, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this fact sheet, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population reached 1,377,529 on April 1, 2020, an increase of 61,000 residents (4.6 percent) since April 1, 2010 according to new 2020 Census data. This increase is smaller than the state’s population gain of 6.5 percent between 2000 and 2010.

New Hampshire’s population grew both because more migrants moved to the state than left and because births exceeded deaths. Migration was the most important source of the state’s population increase, accounting for 89 percent of the population gain. Over the decade, New Hampshire had a net migration gain of …

7.6 Million Fewer Births And Still Counting, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that new data for 2020 show a 3.8 percent decline in births since 2019 and the fewest since 1979. There were 16.5 percent fewer births last year than in 2007, just before the Great Recession began to influence births. The cumulative effect of this sustained decline in births means over 7.6 million fewer babies were born in the last 13 years than might have been expected. This is unlikely to change in the short-term because of the pandemic’s adverse impact on fertility.

A critical long-term question is: how many births are being …

Deaths Exceeded Births In A Record Number Of States In 2020, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2020, the impact of COVID-19 contributed to a record 3,376,000 deaths in the United States: 18 percent more than in 2019. In addition, births diminished by 4 percent to 3,605,000 in 2020. The surplus of births over deaths added just 229,000 to the population in 2020 compared to 892,000 in 2019: a decline of 74 percent.

This decline coupled with diminished immigration produced the United States’ smallest annual population gain in at least 100 years. Deaths exceeded births in 25 states in 2020, far more than in any previous year.

2020 Census Reflects Lagging U.S. Population Growth, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the first data from the 2020 Census reveal a significant slowdown in U.S. population growth. Population change varied considerably from state to state. Fourteen states had population gains exceeding 10 percent, 20 had population gains of less than 5 percent, and 3 lost population. States’ population changes were influenced both by migration and the balance between births and deaths.

Looking ahead, the short-term prospects for substantial population increase appear limited. Even aside from the COVID-19-related deaths following the April 2020 Census, mortality is likely to rise among an aging U.S. population and …

New Hampshire's Estimated Population Gain Is The Largest In New England, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 5,500 to 1,366,000 between July of 2019 and July of 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates. This was the largest population percentage increase in New England. In contrast, the region as a whole and four of its six states lost population between July 2019 and July 2020, due in part to mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Migration Gains To New Hampshire From Other U.S. States Are Growing, With The Largest Gains Among Young Adults, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses how New Hampshire is now gaining significantly more migrants from other U.S. destinations than earlier in the decade. The largest gains are among young adults.

Biden's Victory Due To Increased Support Along The Entire Rural-Urban Continuum, Kenneth M. Johnson, Dante Scala

Carsey Publications

Joseph Biden won the 2020 presidential election because Democratic support increased across the entire rural–urban continuum. The incremental gains at each point along the continuum were modest, but in a tightly contested election small changes in the vote matter.

In this brief, Carsey School senior demographer Ken Johnson and Carsey fellow Dante Scala conclude that voting trends in rural and urban America reflect a continuum rather than a dichotomy. At one pole of the continuum are large, densely settled urban cores, where Democrats have consistently been the most successful. At the other end are remote rural counties far from a …

Voting And Attitudes Along The Red Rural–Blue Urban Continuum, Kenneth M. Johnson, Dante Scala

Carsey Publications

Political commentary often divides the nation into two partisan zones, urban and rural, but new analysis demonstrates that the rural–urban gradient is a continuum, not a dichotomy. In this study of the 2018 congressional midterms, authors Kenneth Johnson and Dante Scala confirm their earlier analysis of the 2016 presidential election and demonstrate how voting patterns and political attitudes vary across the spectrum of urban and rural areas.

Is Rural America Failing Or Succeeding? Maybe Both, Kenneth M. Johnson, Daniel T. Lichter

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter summarize their peer reviewed article in Demography that provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and urban growth.

Johnson and Lichter report that since 1970, 25 percent of counties containing 22 percent of the current U.S. population have been reclassified from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status because of population and economic growth. All of the growth in the share of the population that lives in metropolitan counties is due to nonmetropolitan counties transforming into metropolitan counties. This transfer of population and territory through reclassification calls into question the …

Health Conditions And An Older Population Increase Covid-19 Risks In Rural America, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson discusses the likely influence that the age structure and the incidence of pre-existing health conditions have on the risks of those exposed to COVID-19 in rural and urban counties in the United States.

Johnson reports that the rural population is at higher risk from COVID-19 because it is older and has higher rates of pre-existing health conditions. Rural areas currently have lower COVID-19 case and death rates, but these rates are rising faster than in urban areas. Nearly 32 percent of the rural counties at high risk from COVID-19 still have relatively few cases …

The Inequities Of Job Loss And Recovery Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic, Rogelio Saenz, Corey Sparks

Carsey Publications

In this policy brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz and Corey Sparks discuss the wide variations in unemployment and the level of job loss during the COVID-19 pandemic across the nation’s demographic groups that have historically suffered disparities in the workforce, including persons of color, women, and immigrants. It is particularly unfortunate that the calamity of the pandemic comes on the heels of major improvements in job prospects that these groups made over the last decade, as the workforce emerged from the Great Recession.

The benefits associated with the CARES Act of March 2020 expired in July, leaving tens of millions of …

Why People Move To And Stay In New Hampshire, Kenneth M. Johnson, Kristine Bundschuh

Carsey Publications

Migration is important to New Hampshire’s demographic future. Traditionally, the state has grown both because of migration into it and because of the surplus of births over deaths. However, recently all of New Hampshire’s population growth has been due to migration.

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Kristine Bundschuh analyze data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll to examine the characteristics of two groups of current New Hampshire residents—recent migrants and established residents—to understand why people move to and choose to stay in the state. Their findings illustrate that migration decisions are influenced by …

Why People Move To And Stay In New Hampshire, Kenneth M. Johnson, Kristine Bundschuh

Carsey Publications

Migration is important to New Hampshire’s demographic future. Traditionally, the state has grown both because of migration into it and because of the surplus of births over deaths. However, recently all of New Hampshire’s population growth has been due to migration.

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Kristine Bundschuh analyze data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Granite State Poll to examine the characteristics of two groups of current New Hampshire residents—recent migrants and established residents—to understand why people move to and choose to stay in the state. Their findings illustrate that migration decisions are influenced by …

U.S. Population Growth Slows, But Diversity Grows, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2019 the U.S. population grew at the lowest rate in a century because there were fewer births, more deaths, and less immigration. Fertility rates diminished regardless of race or Hispanic origin and immigration declines were also widespread. As a result, the growth rate of both the minority and non-Hispanic White population diminished. Yet, the racial diversity of the population continued to grow, according to Census Bureau estimates released on June 25, 2020.

This increasing diversity reflects two important demographic trends. The minority population is growing, and the non-Hispanic White population is …

U.S. Fertility Rates And Births Continue To Diminish, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses new National Center for Health Statistics data for 2019 that show the lowest fertility rates on record and just 3,746,000 births—the fewest since 1985. There were 570,000 fewer births in 2019 than in 2007, just before the Great Recession began to influence births. As fertility rates begin to be impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and its economic aftermath, a critical question is: how many of these births will be delayed, and how many will be foregone entirely? This has implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force.

An Older Population Increases Estimated Covid-19 Death Rates In Rural America, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson estimates the influence that the local age structure has on coronavirus death rates among those exposed to it in rural and urban counties in the United States. He reports that the older age structure of rural America increases its vulnerability to the coronavirus. Though rural exposure to the virus was limited early in the pandemic, it is now spreading rapidly there. Rural America’s older age structure increases expected mortality rates there, but other factors also influence its vulnerability to the virus. The fates of rural and urban America are inextricably intertwined, so responding to …

Deaths Exceeded Births In Nearly Half Of U.S. Counties Last Year, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that even before the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, deaths were at a record high in the United States last year, but there were the fewest births since 1986. Between July 2018 and July 2019, the surplus of births over deaths was the least in more than 50 years. As a result, more people died than were born in 46 percent of U.S. counties last year. Because of this smaller surplus of births over deaths and diminished immigration, the U.S. population grew by just 0.48 percent last year—the lowest population growth rate …

Distribution Of New Hampshire’S Older Population Complicates Health Care Delivery During Coronavirus Epidemic, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson discusses the uneven spatial distribution of New Hampshire’s older population and suggests that it may complicate the delivery of health care to the state’s population during the COVID-19 epidemic. Older adults are much more likely to experience serious health consequences as a result of exposure to COVID-19. Thus, access to health care is of critical importance for older adults. Though most older adults reside in southern New Hampshire, seniors make up a larger proportion of the population in sparsely settled northern New Hampshire.

New Hampshire Population Grew Last Year, Even Though Deaths Exceeded Births, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports the population of New Hampshire grew by 6,200 to 1,360,000 between July of 2018 and July of 2019 according to new Census Bureau estimates. The state’s population increased even though there were fewer births than deaths in the state last year. Migration from other U.S. destinations accounted for most of the state’s population gain. In a state where deaths now exceed births, migration is critical to New Hampshire’s future.

First In The Nation: New Hampshire’S Changing Electorate In Changing Times, Kenneth M. Johnson, Dante Scala, Andrew Smith

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Dante Scala, and Andrew Smith discuss demographic forces that are reshaping the New Hampshire landscape. They report that more than 20 percent of potential voters in the 2020 New Hampshire primary were either not old enough to vote in 2016 or resided somewhere other than New Hampshire. New Hampshire has one of the most mobile populations in the nation. Only one-third of New Hampshire residents age 25 and older were born in the state. Democratic presidential primary turnout in New Hampshire may hit record highs in 2020. Republican turnout, in contrast, is likely to …

New Hampshire Demographic Trends In An Era Of Economic Turbulence, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire gained 40,000 residents (a 3 percent increase) between 2010 and 2018, and the population reached 1,356,458 on July 1, 2018, according to the Census Bureau. Population gains in New Hampshire have diminished over time, though growth has recently picked up. Migration is the biggest driver of population change, and the pattern of demographic change is uneven across the state. New Hampshire’s population is aging and becoming more racially diverse, particularly among children. Johnson notes that, although New Hampshire is a relatively small player on the nation’s huge demographic stage, there …

U.S. Fertility Rate Hits Record Low And Births Continue To Diminish, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that National Center for Health Statistics data for 2018 show the lowest general fertility rate on record and just 3,788,000 births—the fewest in 32 years. This decline in births is entirely due to reduced fertility rates among women in their 20s and teenagers. The decrease has immediate implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force.

Migration Fuels A Second Year Of Higher Population Gain In New Hampshire, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 6,700 between July of 2017 and July of 2018 to 1,356,000 according to new Census Bureau estimates. This gain coupled with a population increase of 7,400 last year added 14,100 residents to the state between 2016 and 2018. This gain is 50 percent greater than the increase between 2014 and 2016, though it remains modest compared to gains in the 1970s and 1980s. Migration accounted for nearly all of this growth.

Rural America Growing Again Due To Migration Gains, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

For the first six years of this decade, rural America experienced overall population loss for the first time in history. New Census Bureau estimates suggest that last year overall growth accelerated in nonmetropolitan America where 46.1 million people reside.

Preparing For A Northwest Passage: A Workshop On The Role Of New England In Navigating The New Arctic, Katharine A. Duderstadt, Catherine M. Ashcraft, Jennifer F. Brewer, Elizabeth Burakowski, Jaed M. Coffin, Jack E. Dibb, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Nancy E. Kinner, Larry A. Mayer, Jennifer L. Miksis-Olds, Joseph Salisbury, Kerri D. Seger, Ruth K. Varner, Cameron P. Wake

All Materials

Preparing for a Northwest Passage: A Workshop on the Role of New England in Navigating the New Arctic (March 25 - 27, 2018 -- The University of New Hampshire) paired two of NSF's 10 Big Ideas: Navigating the New Arctic and Growing Convergence Research at NSF. During this event, participants assessed economic, environmental, and social impacts of Arctic change on New England and established convergence research initiatives to prepare for, adapt to, and respond to these effects. Shipping routes through an ice-free Northwest Passage in combination with modifications to ocean circulation and regional climate patterns linked to Arctic ice melt …

Current Trends In Same-Sex Couples In The United States: How Race And Gender Affect Education, Income Levels, And Urban Living, Emily Lane Haley

Honors Theses and Capstones

No abstract provided.

Race, Partisan Gerrymandering And The Constitution, John M. Greabe

Law Faculty Scholarship

[Excerpt] “For the most part, the Constitution speaks in generalities. The 14th Amendment, for example, instructs the states to provide all persons the "equal protection of the laws." But obviously, this cannot mean that states are always forbidden from treating a person differently than any other person. Children can, of course, be constitutionally barred from driving, notwithstanding the Equal Protection Clause. Thus, there is a need within our constitutional system to refine the Constitution's abstract provisions.”