Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

Moving To Diversity, Richelle L. Winkler, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Richelle Winkler and Kenneth Johnson, using new data and techniques, find that net migration between U.S. counties increased racial diversity in each of the last two decades. However, migration’s influence on diversity was far from uniform: it varied by race, age group, and location, sometimes starkly. Overall, net migration of the population under age 40 increased diversity, while net migration of people over age 60 diminished diversity. Blacks and Hispanics are migrating to predominantly white counties, while white young adults are moving to urban core counties with relatively high proportions of blacks and Hispanics. The movement …

White Deaths Exceed Births In One-Third Of U.S. States, Rogelio Saenz, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz and Kenneth Johnson report that there were more white deaths than births in seventeen states in 2014, compared to just four states in 2004. This is the highest number of states with white natural decrease (more deaths than births) in U.S. history. Several of these states are among the nation’s most populous and urbanized. The rising number of older adults, the falling number of women of childbearing age, and lower fertility rates diminished the number of white births and increased the number of white deaths. The authors conclude with a discussion of the major …

U.S. Births Remain Low As The Great Recession Wanes; More Than Three Million Fewer Births And Still Counting, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this fact sheet, author Ken Johnson discusses how since the onset of the Great Recession, there have been 3.4 million fewer U.S. births than expected. National Center for Health Statistics data for 2015 show the lowest general fertility rate on record and only 3,978,000 births last year. There were 338,000 fewer births in 2015 than in 2007, just before the Recession began to influence fertility. This decline in births is entirely due to reduced fertility rates. In 2015, the shortfall of births was nearly 600,000, and recent data provide no evidence of any upturn in birth rates. It is …

Behind At The Starting Line: Poverty Among Hispanic Infants, Daniel T. Lichter, Scott R. Sanders, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Daniel Lichter, Scott Sanders, and Kenneth Johnson examine the economic circumstances of Hispanic infants using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey annual microdata files from 2006 through 2010. They report that a disproportionate share of Hispanic infants start life’s race behind the starting line, poor and disadvantaged—an important finding because the proportion of all U.S. births that are Hispanic is growing rapidly. The poverty risk is especially high among rural Hispanic infants and those in new destinations. Despite higher poverty risks, Hispanic infants receive less governmental assistance. High Hispanic infant poverty has immediate and long-term consequences …

Red Rural, Blue Rural; Rural Does Not Always Equal Republican, Dante J. Scala, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this fact sheet, authors Dante Scala and Kenneth Johnson examine voting data for nearly 9,000 rural residents to identify how voting patterns differ across rural areas comparing farm and recreational counties to those elsewhere in rural America. They also examine voting data from the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections for each rural county. Scala and Johnson report that rural America is not the undifferentiated Republican bastion depicted by commentators. While Republican presidential candidates do best in rural counties dominated by farming, Democratic presidential candidates do well in rural counties dominated by recreation. In “battleground” states, these rural differences may …

Diversity Growing Because Births Far Exceed Deaths Among Minorities, But Not Among Whites, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Ken Johnson analyzes new Census Bureau estimates that reflect two important demographic trends affecting the growing diversity of the U.S. population. The minority population is growing and the non-Hispanic white population is not. This interplay of white and minority population change is fueling the growing diversity of the U.S. population. Non-Hispanic whites currently represent 62% of the population and are projected to remain in the majority until the mid-2040s. Growth is minimal because the non-Hispanic white population is aging, which reduces fertility and increases mortality. In contrast, the minority population now represents 38 percent …

Public Insurance Drove Overall Coverage Growth Among Children In 2012, Michael J. Staley

Carsey Publications

Using data from the American Community Survey, this brief examines the rates of health insurance coverage among children under 18 in the United States by region and by rural, suburban, and central city residence between 2008 and 2012. Author Michael Staley reports that, between 2011 and 2012, overall rates of health insurance coverage among children increased slightly (0.3 percentage point); 92.8 percent of the nation’s children had health insurance in 2012. Rates of public health insurance coverage for children grew from 28.3 percent in 2008 to 38.1 percent in 2012, whereas rates of private health insurance coverage for children decreased …

Immigration To Manchester, New Hampshire, Sally Ward, Justin R. Young, Curt D. Grimm

Carsey Publications

This brief analyzes immigration and refugee resettlement in Manchester and the effects on the city’s demographic composition, as well as the implications for its future. Authors Sally Ward, Justin Young, and Curt Grimm report that Manchester, New Hampshire, like the nation, is experiencing a new wave of immigration. In the past, most of the city’s immigrants tended to come from Canada and Europe. Today, they are most likely from Latin America, followed by Asia and, to a lesser extent, Africa. The rate of refugee placement in Manchester has remained relatively steady since the 1990s. Of all refugees who arrived in …

The Increasing Diversity Of America's Youth, Kenneth M. Johnson, Andrew P. Schaefer, Daniel T. Lichter, Luke T. Rogers

Carsey Publications

This brief documents how unfolding demographic forces have placed today’s children and youth at the forefront of America’s new racial and ethnic diversity. Authors Kenneth M. Johnson, Andrew Schaefer, Daniel T. Lichter, and Luke T. Rogers discuss how the rapidly changing racial and ethnic composition of the youth population has important implications for intergroup relations, ethnic identities, and electoral politics. They report that diversity is increasing among America’s youth because there are more minority children and fewer non-Hispanic white children. Minority births exceeded non-Hispanic white births for the first time in U.S. history in 2011 according to Census Bureau estimates. …

Walking Builds Community Cohesion: Survey Of Two New Hampshire Communities Looks At Social Capital And Walkability, Shannon H. Rogers, Kevin H. Gardner, Cynthia H. Carlson

Carsey Publications

This brief reports the results of a survey conducted in 2009 of approximately 2,000 households in Portsmouth and Manchester, New Hampshire, to examine the connection between walkability and social capital. Authors Shannon Rogers, Kevin Gardner, and Cynthia Carlson report that higher levels of social capital are found in areas that are perceived to be more walkable, as measured by the number of places people can walk to in their community. In addition, walkability is influenced by concerns of safety, access, time, and health and by physical characteristics such as proximity, scale, and aesthetics. Given the link between walkability and greater …

New Hampshire Children In Need Of Services: Impacts Of 2011 Legislative Changes To Chins, Lisa Speropolous, Barbara Wauchope

Carsey Publications

Using administrative data from state and local agencies and data from interviews with CHINS professionals, this brief provides an overview of participation in the Children in Need of Services (CHINS) program before and after the change in the law in September 2011 but before funding returned in 2013. Specifically, it examines changes in CHINS petitions filed, children served, and services provided to children and their families in the state. Authors Lisa Speropolous and Barbara Wauchope present the study as an example of the impact that state fiscal policy can have on the most vulnerable of New Hampshire’s populations.

2012 New Hampshire Civic Health Index, Bruce L. Mallory, Quixada Moore-Vissing

Carsey Publications

The 2012 New Hampshire Civic Health Index follows earlier studies, including the New Hampshire Civic Index compiled by the NH Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College in 2006 and the 2009 Civic Health Index published by the Carsey Institute in collaboration with the National Conference on Citizenship and Knowledge Networks. This report begins with key findings, a general description of the Granite State, followed by detailed findings from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey and other surveys that illustrate patterns of volunteering and giving, voting and voter registration, civic engagement (both informal and formal), and confidence in public institutions …

Age And Lifecycle Patterns Driving U.S. Migration Shifts, Kenneth M. Johnson, Richelle Winkler, Luke T. Rogers

Carsey Publications

Migration—people moving between locations—is now driving much of the demographic change occurring in the United States. In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Richelle Winkler, and Luke Rogers share new research on age-related migration patterns to provide a fuller understanding of the complex patterns of demographic change in the United States. Examining four migration age groups, including emerging adults, young adults, family age, and older adults, their analysis of trends over time shows evidence that certain age groups migrate in similar ways. For example, young adult migrants are flowing to large metropolitan areas, while family age migrants are leaving large urban …

Deaths Exceed Births In Record Number Of U.S. Counties, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this fact sheet, author Kenneth Johnson examines new data released by the Census Bureau which provide insights into the continuing influence of the Great Recession on U.S. demographic trends. He reports that, for the first time in U.S. history, deaths exceeded births in two entire states: Maine and West Virginia, and a record 36 percent of all U.S. counties experienced natural decrease in 2012. Natural decrease occurs when more deaths than births occur in an area in a given year. The growing incidence of natural decrease in America has gone largely unnoticed, but the new data demonstrate that natural …

County-Specific Net Migration By Five-Year Age Groups, Hispanic Origin, Race And Sex 2000-2010, Richelle Winkler, Kenneth M. Johnson, Cheng Cheng, Paul R. Voss, Katherine J. Curtis

Sociology

This report documents the methodology used to prepare county-level, net migration estimates by five-year age cohorts and sex, and by race and Hispanic origin, for the intercensal period from 2000 to 2010. The estimates were prepared using a vital statistics version of the forward cohort residual method (Siegel and Hamilton 1952) following the techniques used to prepare the 1990 to 2000 net migration estimates (Voss, McNiven, Johnson, Hammer, and Fuguitt 2004) as described in detail below. These numbers (and the net migration rates derivable from them) extend the set of decennial estimates of net migration that have been produced following …

Public Perceptions Of Environmental Management In The Puget Sound Region, Thomas G. Safford, Matthew Cutler, Megan M. Henly, Karma Norman, Phillip Levin

Carsey Publications

Using data from a phone survey of 1,980 Puget Sound residents conducted in 2012, this fact sheet describes public perceptions of different environmental interventions. Puget Sound residents widely support a range of proposed interventions designed to protect and restore the marine environment. These proposals include restricting boating and shipping activities to protect marine mammals such as killer whales and sea lions; more strongly enforcing existing environmental rules and regulations; spending government money to restore the environment for fish and wildlife; and providing tax credits to businesses that voluntarily reduce their environmental impact. Residents are divided about whether existing environmental regulations …

Urban-Rural Differences In Concern About The Environment And Jobs In The Puget Sound Region, Thomas G. Safford, Matthew Cutler, Megan M. Henly, Karma Norman, Phillip Levin

Carsey Publications

Using data from a phone survey of 1,980 Puget Sound residents conducted in 2012, this fact sheet examines the severity of different environmental problems and compares the strength of concern about the lack of jobs and beliefs about the environment. Too few jobs and the loss of wildlife habitat were the two community issues most likely to be ranked as important problems among residents of Puget Sound. Environmental concern is higher among urban than rural residents, while those in rural areas are more likely than urbanites to believe the lack of jobs is a threat to their community.

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Beliefs About Development Versus Environmental Tradeoffs In The Puget Sound Region, Thomas G. Safford, Matthew Cutler, Megan M. Henly, Karma Norman, Phillip Levin

Carsey Publications

Using data from a phone survey of 1,980 Puget Sound residents conducted in 2012, this fact sheet outlines residents’ views about the importance of environmental protection as well as their opinions about energy development, protection of wild salmon, and land use regulation. Seventy-four percent of Puget Sound residents believe that protecting the environment should be a priority even if it means limiting economic growth. The majority of residents favor both increased use of renewable energy (82 percent) and protecting wild salmon (75 percent). Residents are more divided about curbing development, with those from rural areas being more apt to prioritize …

New Hampshire Demographic Trends In The Twenty-First Century, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

This brief summarizes current population redistribution trends in the Granite State and shows how fertility, mortality, and migration contributed to these trends. According to the 2010 census, New Hampshire gained 80,700 residents (a 6.5 percent increase) between 2000 and 2010, mostly during the earlier years of the decade. Migration contributed 35,400 to the population gain, and the excess of births over deaths accounted for 45,300. Author Ken Johnson reports that New Hampshire currently does not have a large population of seniors, but a rapid increase in the older population is inevitable and coming soon.

Demographic Change In The Northern Forest, Kenneth M. Johnson, Susan I. Stewart, Miranda H. Mockrin

Carsey Publications

This brief examines the population redistribution in the Northern Forest, which includes thirty-four counties scattered across northern and central Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. Authors Ken Johnson, Susan Stewart, and Miranda Mockrin report that the population of the Northern Forest grew modestly between 2000 and 2010, and the population gains were greatest in recreational areas and least in manufacturing areas. Racial and ethnic diversity is also growing in the Northern Forest, and the population is getting older due to aging in place among current residents and net outmigration among younger populations.

Rural Demographic Change In The New Century: Slower Growth, Increased Diversity, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

This brief examines rural demographic trends in the first decade of the twenty-first century using newly available data from the 2010 Census. The rural population grew by just 2.2 million between 2000 and 2010—a gain barely half as great as that during the 1990s. Population growth was particularly slow in farming and mining counties and sharply reduced in rural manufacturing counties. Rural population gains were largest in high-amenity counties and just beyond the metropolitan fringe. Diversity accelerated in rural America, with racial and ethnic minorities accounting for 83 percent of rural population growth between 2000 and 2010.

The Implications Of Demographic Change For Resource Management In The Northern Forest, Kenneth M. Johnson, Susan I. Stewart

Sociology

No abstract provided.

Natural Decrease In America: More Coffins Than Cradles, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

This brief summarizes recent regional patterns of natural decrease in the United States. Natural decrease occurs when more deaths than births occur in an area in a given year. The growing incidence of natural decrease has gone largely unnoticed, yet natural decrease is no longer an isolated phenomenon occurring in a few remote corners of the country. Last year, 24 percent of all U.S. counties experienced natural decrease. And, for the first time in U.S. history, deaths now exceed births in an entire state. Author Ken Johnson discusses the implications of natural decrease, as well as the impact of the …

Environmental, Economic, And Social Changes In Rural America Visible In Survey Data And Satellite Images, Joel N. Hartter, Chris R. Colocousis

Carsey Publications

This brief focuses on the changing landscapes of different types of rural America where social, economic, and ecological changes are occurring over large areas: the Northern Forest, Central Appalachia, and the Pacific Northwest. These three study sites embody varying historical reliance on land and natural resources and represent very different socioeconomic dynamics. Their common and unique challenges are explored, along with the far-reaching implications of land-cover change in their areas. Data used includes both telephone surveys and satellite imagery to illustrate the unique changes seen in rural America in recent years. (Please note that it is best to print this …

How Yoopers See The Future Of Their Communities: Why Residents Leave Or Stay In Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Jessica D. Ulrich

Carsey Publications

According to a Community and Environment in Rural America survey, Michigan's Upper Peninsula residents, often called "Yoopers," said that ties to community and the area's natural beauty were significant factors for those who planned on staying in this rural area, which comprises about a third of Michigan's land mass but only 4 percent of its population. Those planning on leaving cited employment opportunities and energy costs as the most important factors in their decision.

Rural Children - Rural Communities, William P. O'Hare

Carsey Publications

Carsey Institute Child Nutrition Briefings, Washington, DC

Recent Highlights From Carsey Demographic Research, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

Carsey Institute Child Nutrition Briefings, Washington, DC

Older Americans Working More, Retiring Less, Anne M. Shattuck

Carsey Publications

This Carsey brief finds that the percentage of Americans age 65 and older remaining in the labor force continues to grow steadily in urban, suburban, and rural areas. In 2009, 22 percent of older men and 13 percent of older women were still working compared to 17 percent of men and 9 percent of women in 1995. Moreover, increasing percentages of older workers hold full-time, full-year jobs.

Parks, People And Pixels: Evaluating Landscape Effects Of An East African National Park On Its Surroundings, Jane Southworth, Joel N. Hartter, Michael W. Binford, Abraham Goldman, Colin A. Chapman, Lauren J. Chapman, Patrick Omeja, Elizabeth Binford

Geography

Landscapes surrounding protected areas, while still containing considerable biodiversity, have rapidly growing human populations and associated agricultural development in most of the developing world that tend to isolate them, potentially reducing their conservation value. Using field studies and multi-temporal Landsat imagery, we examine a forest park, Kibale National Park in western Uganda, its changes over time, and related land cover change in the surrounding landscape. We find Kibale has successfully defended its borders and prevents within-park deforestation and other land incursions, and has maintained tree cover throughout the time period of the study. Outside the park there was a significant …

Challenges In Resource Rich Communities: Finding The Path To Redevelopment, Cynthia M. Duncan

Carsey Publications

Northern Forest Higher Education Resource Network Annual Meeting