Demography, Population, and Ecology Commons^™

Retaining Residents Is Important To New Hampshire’S Future: Why Do People Leave?, Kristine Bundschuh, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

Migration is critical to New Hampshire’s future. Between 2020 and 2025, the state’s entire population gain was due to migration, since more people died than were born in the state. In part, this migration gain is because fewer New Hampshire residents leave the state than residents of nearby states. While much attention focuses on attracting migrants to New Hampshire, another important piece of the state’s migration puzzle is understanding why people consider leaving.

In this brief, authors Kristine Bundschuh and Kenneth Johnson examine New Hampshire residents’ likelihood of leaving the state and explore why residents consider leaving the state. Their …

Forests, Lakes, And "Hidden" Housing, Kenneth M. Johnson, Mark J. Ducey, Barbara D. Cook, Kathryn L. Cottingham

Carsey Publications

Human settlement patterns have significant implications for the natural environment, including freshwater lakes. People are attracted to areas with abundant lakes. However, dense human settlement near lakes can have adverse impacts on lakes by reducing forest cover, increasing nutrient loads, decreasing aquatic vegetation, and introducing invasive species. In addition, dense human settlement near lakes increases the health risks associated with cyanobacteria (also known as “blue-green algae”) blooms.

In this brief, a multi-disciplinary team of researchers focuses on the interaction between human development and forest land near lakes across ten selected U.S. counties and on the limitations of remote satellite imagery …

All Six New England States Gain Population, But Demographic Basis Of Gain Varies, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New England’s population grew by 310,000 between the 2020 Census in April 2020 and July 2025 and now stands at 15,432,000, according to new Census Bureau estimates. International immigration accounted for the entire population gain, offsetting an excess of deaths over births and an outflow of domestic migrants to other U.S. destinations from New England.

All six New England states have gained population since 2020, but the source of growth varied. Maine and New Hampshire had the largest population gains in the region. Most of their gains were due to an influx …

Factors Contributing To The Demographic Cliff: More U.S. Women Of Childbearing Age, But Fewer Have Given Birth, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that in 2024 there were 5.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than would have been expected given fertility patterns prior to the Great Recession, up from 2.1 million in 2016 and 4.7 million in 2022. There are 4 million more women aged 20–39 than in 2006, but 7 million fewer have given birth. The shift in fertility patterns has resulted in 11.8 million fewer babies in the past 17 years.

Fertility rate declines were greatest among women under 30, where childless rates increased the most. Childless rates increased modestly among …

U.S. Births Up Slightly But Remain Near 40-Year Lows, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that new National Center for Health Statistics data for 2024 show a slight increase in annual births and the birth rate from 2023. Even with the uptick, both the number of births and the birth rate were near 40-year lows, and there is no evidence of a significant increase in fertility rates in the new data.

The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. There would have been 11.8 million more births in the last 17 years had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2024. The expense and limited availability of …

Modest Population Gains Widespread In New Hampshire Counties, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population reached 1,409,032 on July 1, 2024, an increase of 6,800 since July 2023, according to new Census Bureau estimates. The state’s population gain was larger than the prior year’s, but smaller than in the two preceding years. Between 2023 and 2024, New Hampshire's entire population gain was due to migration. The state had a net gain of 9,200 people from migration, which offset a loss of 2,400 more deaths than births. Nine of the state’s ten counties gained population, only Coös County experienced a minimal population loss.

These new …

Domestic Migrants And Dollars Flowed To New Hampshire During The Pandemic, Kenneth M. Johnson, Tyrus Parker

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Tyrus Parker report that during the pandemic era from 2020 to 2022 New Hampshire gained both people and income from migration to the state. The state's net migration gain of 26,000 was a significant increase from the net migration gain of 17,000 in the three years prior to the pandemic. Net migration gains to New Hampshire increased because fewer people left the state, and in-migration from other states grew modestly.

People were not the only thing the state gained from migration. Net income gains from migration increased substantially during the pandemic because more …

New England Is Gaining Population Due To Immigration, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that New England’s population gain of 123,000 (0.8 percent) between July 2023 and July 2024 was its largest in recent years, according to new Census Bureau estimates. International immigration accounted for the entire population gain, offsetting an excess of deaths over births and an outflow of domestic migrants to other U.S. destinations. Immigration was also an important source of population gain nationwide accounting for 84 percent of the U.S. population gain of 3.4 million. This produced the largest population gain in the United States in more than 20 years.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New …

Migration Continues To Sustain Population Gains In Rural America, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that rural America is now gaining population again after a decade of loss. The recent rural population gain of 197,000 is striking given that pandemic-era deaths exceeded births in nonmetropolitan areas by a staggering 454,000 between April of 2020 and July of 2023, compared to a net natural loss (more deaths than births) of just 19,000 in the three years before the pandemic.

Even though rural America had an overall population gain between 2020 and 2023, just 45 percent of all rural counties gained population. Most of the recent nonmetropolitan population increase accrued …

Modest Changes In Rural Voting Could Have Significant Implications In 2024, Dante Scala, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Dante Scala and Kenneth Johnson estimate how much a slightly better (or worse) performance by the candidates in the rural areas of seven battleground states could influence the outcome of the 2024 election. They focus on partisan polarization along the rural-urban continuum and on the significant decline in support of Democratic Presidential candidates in these states over the past several elections. Rural voters are a modest share of all voters in the battleground states ranging from just 5 percent in Arizona to 26 percent in Wisconsin. How much would a small incremental change of plus or …

U.S. Births Hit A 43-Year Low, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that there were only 3,591,000 births in the United States in 2023, according to new data from National Center for Health Statistics. This is the fewest U.S. births since 1979, when the U.S. population was 225.1 million compared to 340 million in 2023. Births diminished because fertility rates declined significantly among women in their teens and twenties.

The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. Had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2023, there would have been 10.6 million more births in the last 16 years.

A critical long-term …

Population Gains Continue In New Hampshire, But The Pace Varies, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population reached 1,402,054 on July 1, 2023, an increase of 24,500 residents since April 1, 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates. New Hampshire gained 3,100 residents last year compared to 11,500 and 8,800 in the two preceding years, respectively. The state gained population even though it had 6,600 more deaths than births in the past three years because nearly 31,000 more people moved to the state than left it.

All ten of New Hampshire’s counties gained population between 2020 and 2023, compared to 52 percent of all …

Large Pool Of New Voters Could Add Volatility To New Hampshire Primary, Kenneth M. Johnson, Andrew Smith, Dante Scala

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson, Andrew Smith, and Dante Scala note a greater likelihood of volatility in the New Hampshire primary because there will be many new faces among the voters who flock to the polls on January 23. The New Hampshire electorate has experienced significant turnover since the 2020 primary. More than one-fifth of New Hampshire’s potential primary voters this year are new because in 2020 they were not old enough to vote or resided somewhere else. The ideology and political party allegiances of these young people and new migrants differ significantly from those of longtime residents. In …

Latest Data Show All New England States Gain Population, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that population gains were widespread in New England last year, according to new Census Bureau estimates. All six states gained population for the first time since before the pandemic. New Hampshire and Maine continued to gain population, just as they have in each of the last four years. In contrast, Massachusetts and Rhode Island gained population last year after several years of population decline. Vermont and Connecticut also continued to add population.

Most of New England’s population increase came from migration, because deaths continue to exceed births in four of the …

More U.S. Women Of Childbearing Age, But Fewer Have Given Birth, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, in 2022, there were 21.9 million women aged 20–39 who had not given birth in the United States. This is 4.7 million more childless women of prime child-bearing age than would have been expected given fertility patterns prior to the Great Recession. In 2022, there were 9 percent more women 20 to 39 than in 2006, but the share who had never had a child was up by 37 percent.

The cumulative result of fewer women having children and diminishing fertility levels was 9.6 million fewer U.S. births between 2008 and …

Recent Demographic Trends Have Implications For Rural Health Care, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports nonmetropolitan (rural) America gained population between April of 2020 and July of 2022. In the preceding decade, rural areas lost population, both because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because births just minimally exceeded deaths. In contrast, the recent, modest rural population increase occurred because a significant net migration gain more than offset the growing excess of deaths over births fostered by the pandemic. That rural migration was strong enough to produce population growth is especially surprising given that deaths outnumbered births—in part due to the pandemic—in 85 …

Migration Sustains New Hampshire’S Population Gain: Examining The Origins Of Recent Migrants, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that New Hampshire’s population continued to grow in 2021 and 2022 because a migration gain of 18,300 was enough to offset the excess of deaths over births. More people died (28,700) than were born (24,900) in New Hampshire in the past two years. Covid certainly contributed to this loss, but annual deaths already exceeded births in the state for several years before the pandemic.

Recently released Census data underscore the mobility of New Hampshire’s population and provide insights into the origin of the migrants to the state. Only 41 percent of the …

Three Years Of Record High Mortality And Low Fertility Leave Many States With More Deaths Than Births, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that with Covid-induced mortality at record highs and continuing low fertility during the past three years, U.S. births exceeded deaths by the smallest margin in more than a century. Such widespread natural decline is unprecedented. At least 22 states had a natural decline in each of the three pandemic years. Prior to the pandemic, the most states with more deaths than births in a year was 5 in 2019. There will be fewer states with more deaths than births in 2023 if the recent reductions in Covid deaths persist. But many …

U.S. Births Remain Near 40-Year Low For Third Consecutive Year, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that recent National Center for Health Statistics birth data indicate there were only 3,661,000 births in 2022, compared to 3,664,000 in 2021, and just 3,614,000 in 2020. These three birth cohorts are the smallest in 40 years and continue a birth decline that began in the era of the Great Recession. The long-term impact of the fertility decline has been substantial. Had 2007 fertility patterns been sustained through 2022, there would have been 9.6 million more births in the last 15 years. A critical long-term question is: how many of these …

Retaining Residents Is Important To New Hampshire's Future: Why Do People Stay?, Kristine Bundschuh, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

A key factor impacting New Hampshire’s demographic and economic success is retaining and growing its population. What motivates people to move to New Hampshire is important to the state’s future and garners considerable policy attention. Much less consideration is given to retaining current residents. Yet on average, nearly 1.3 million New Hampshire residents do not migrate into or out of the state in a given year. Understanding why those residents stay in New Hampshire can be an important element of the state’s comprehensive development strategy.

In this brief, authors Kristine Bundschuh and Kenneth Johnson discuss the results of NH Granite …

Population Gains Widespread In New Hampshire Counties Due To Migration, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 17,700 to 1,395,000 between April 2020, when the 2020 Census was conducted, and July 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. These population gains were widespread, occurring in each of the state’s ten counties despite deaths exceeding births in nine of the ten counties. The entire population gain accrued because 21,600 more people moved to the state than left it. The data underscore the continuing importance of migration to the state’s future. Such migration gains result both from attracting migrants to the state …

New Census Data Reflect The Continuing Impact Of Covid On U.S. Demographic Trends, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that, according to recent Census Bureau estimates, the U.S. population has grown at the slowest rate in history in the past two years due to the impact of Covid. Deaths exceeded births in 75 percent of all U.S. counties, far more than at any point in the past. Most of the modest population gain was due to migration, and its extent varied along the rural-urban continuum. Looking ahead, the size and distribution of future population gains remain uncertain. As the impact of the pandemic wanes, the excess of births over deaths is …

The Recent U.S. Population Growth Rate Increased From Last Year's Record Low, But Remains Below Historical Levels, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the U.S. population grew by just 1,256,000 between July of 2021 and July of 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. This was an increase from the record low growth of the preceding year, but it remains well below historical rates. There were just 245,000 more births than deaths in the past year, an increase from the 144,000 in the previous year, but still the second smallest natural gain in 80 years. Deaths reached a record high of 3,443,000 last year, 20 percent more than three years ago. In …

Migration Continues To Fuel New Hampshire's Population Gain, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that the population of New Hampshire grew by 7,700 (0.55 percent) to 1,395,000 between July of 2021 and July of 2022, according to new Census Bureau estimates. New Hampshire’s population gain was the second largest in New England. The population gain was entirely due to migration. In all, 10,200 more people moved into New Hampshire than left between July of 2021 and July of 2022. Nearly 62 percent of this migration gain was because more people moved here from other states than left, but the state also gained from immigration. …

Recent Data Suggest Rural America Is Growing Again After A Decade Of Population Loss, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that after a decade of population loss, rural America gained population between 2020 and 2021 because migration gains offset a growing excess of deaths over births due to COVID-19. Between 2010 and 2020, nonmetropolitan (rural) America lost population for the first time in history because more people left rural areas than moved to them and because the excess of births over deaths dwindled. Yet, the latest Census Bureau population estimates document renewed population gains in nonmetropolitan America between April 2020 and July 2021. In fact, the rural population gain exceeded that in …

U.S. Fertility Up Slightly, But 8.6 Million Fewer Births Long Term, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this data snapshot, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that National Center for Health Statistics data for 2021 show a slight increase in births, rising 1.5 percent from the 2020 level which was a 40-year low. Even with the uptick, the 3,659,000 births in 2021 were the third fewest in 40 years. There is little to suggest a substantial increase in fertility rates in the short term, though preliminary data suggest that births in the first three months of 2022 were higher than in early 2021 when COVID first impacted births.

Contemporary trends continue a birth decline that began …

Growing Racial Diversity In Rural America: Results From The 2020 Census, Kenneth M. Johnson, Daniel Lichter

Carsey Publications

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter report that although population declines were widespread between 2010 and 2020, rural America became more racially and ethnically diverse. In part, the recent uptick in racial diversity in rural America is a consequence of White population decline.

Rural America remains predominately non-Hispanic White with 35 million White residents constituting 76 percent of the rural population according to the 2020 Census. This represents a decline from 79.8 percent in 2010. The number of rural residents who are members of a racial or ethnic minority increased to 11 million between 2010 and 2020, …

More Coffins Than Cradles In 2,300 U.S. Counties: Covid's Grim Impact, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson reports that COVID’s impact is reflected in the sharp rise in U.S. deaths, reaching 3,434,000 between July 2020 and July 2021. This is a record high and 20 percent more than two years ago before the COVID pandemic. Births diminished to just 3,582,000, the fewest since 1979. The primary driver of U.S. population growth has long been the substantial surplus of births over deaths. This surplus has now dwindled to just 148,000, compared to 923,000 two years ago—an 84 percent decline. With immigration also at a low ebb, the population grew by …

Rural America Lost Population Over The Past Decade For The First Time In History, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief Carsey Senior Demographer Kenneth Johnson examines rural demographic trends between 2010 and 2020 using data from the 2020 Census. The economic turbulence beginning with the Great Recession and continuing through the next decade had a significant demographic impact on rural America. Between 2010 and 2020 rural population loss was widespread, with more than two-thirds of all nonmetropolitan counties losing population. With fewer births, more deaths, and more people leaving than moving in, rural America experienced an overall population loss for the first time in history. Population losses were greatest in remote rural counties, but even in rural …

Smallest U.S. Population Growth In History: More Deaths, Fewer Births, And Less Immigration, Kenneth M. Johnson

Carsey Publications

In this brief, author Kenneth Johnson reports that the U.S. population grew by just 393,000 between July of 2020 and July of 2021 according to new Census Bureau estimates—the lowest rate of annual population gain in history and the smallest numeric gain in more than 100 years. Diminished immigration from abroad contributed, but the driver of this minimal population gain was that there were only 148,000 more births than deaths. This is the smallest natural gain in more than 80 years. COVID-19 played a central role in this small population gain. In addition to 475,000 deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 …