Models and Methods Commons^™

Using Game Theory To Model Tripolar Deterrence And Escalation Dynamics, Grace Farson

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

The study investigated how game theory can been utilized to model multipolar escalation dynamics between Russia, China, and the United States. In addition, the study focused on analyzing various parameters that affected potential conflict outcomes to further new deterrence thought in a tripolar environment.

A preliminary game theoretic model was created to model and analyze escalation dynamics. The model was built upon framework presented by Zagare and Kilgour in their work ‘Perfect Deterrence’. The model is based on assumptions and rules set prior to game play. The model was then analyzed based upon these assumptions using a form of mathematical …

Access To Services For New Americans With Intellectual And Developmental Disabilities: Building Capacity Through The Ramirez June Initiative, Cynthia S.B. Stewart, Carmel Lulihi, Laura González-Murphy, Jacqueline Hayes

Developmental Disabilities Network Journal

New Americans with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are a significantly underserved community in New York State (NY) facing complex barriers accessing IDD services and fully integrating into their communities. New American communities lack connections with IDD service systems and struggle to find culturally and linguistically accessible information about disability services and resources. New Americans may be fearful of engaging with service providers, especially if they lack lawful immigration status and are undocumented. In acknowledgement of these barriers, NY implemented an initiative to create a navigator model that is the first of its kind in the nation. The Initiative is …

Study On Building New-Type Think Tanks With Chinese Characteristics—Perspectives Of Systems Engineering, Science Communication, Etc., Liang Xi, Yan Ying, Baoyu Jia

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Science and technology think tank is an important part of new type of think tanks with Chinese characteristics, with core values that lie in giving their professional advantages in scientific research for scientific decision-making by the Communist Party of China and Chinese government. This study summarizes the main theories and Marxism's views on think tanks, analyzes the new situation of the construction of new think tanks with Chinese characteristics in the new era, summarizes the three characteristics of "special", "new", and "intelligent" new think tanks with Chinese characteristics, and discusses the theoretical basis, organizational structure and operation mechanism of the …

Construct 3e Theory For S&T Budget Performance Evaluation, Improve Effectiveness Of S&T Budget, Ruhan A, Xiaoxuan Li

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

The current practices of S&T budget performance evaluation in China put more weight on efficacy than efficiency and effectiveness. This study puts forward an innovative 3E theory in the field of S&T budgeting performance evaluation based on Peter Checkland's 3E evaluation model and the existing practices of S&T budget performance evaluation in China. To unswervingly uphold and approach the new request for improving the S&T input effectiveness emphasized at the 20th National Congress of the CPC, it is a must to carry out a comprehensive S&T budget performance evaluation in the new era on the basis of the 3E theory …

Practice And Implications Of Funding And Management Of Alzheimer’S Disease Research Programs In The United States Federal Government, Zhiling Han, Baicun Li, Xiaoxi Xiao, Xiaoxuan Li

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

How to fund and manage major scientific projects of scientific frontier or national needs, including topic selection, funding programs, performance evaluation, etc., is an urgent problem facing in China. In this study, the federal government of the United States funding and organizing research on the diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer's disease was studied to reveal the key mechanisms behind its significant progress. It is found that the United States has formed a set of relatively mature and effective financial support mechanism in science and technology projects, including organization and mobilization, object management, performance evaluation, budget evaluation. This set of mechanism …

Evolution Trajectory Of Performance Evaluation Of The Us Federal Government S&T Budget, Cong Wu, Qing Han, Ruhan A

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Government performance evaluation in the US dates back to the early twentieth century, in which the performance evaluation of the US federal government S&T budget also follows its pattern and experiences historical evolution. Looking into the historical trajectory of performance evaluation of the US federal government S&T budget, this study divides its transformation into 3 phases, namely exploration stage, formation stage, and development stage. The study first analyzes the major traits and evaluation methods of each individual stage, and further gives out a general conclusion of the whole development trajectory based on a comprehensive analysis. Finally, based on the current …

Upgrading Allocation And Management Of S&T Funding, Improving Efficiency Of S&T Investment, Wenjun Liu, Geng Li, Fengyu Huang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

The main focus of China's science and technology (S&T) investment has shifted from the lack of total investment to solve the contradiction between the need for high-quality development and the inefficiency of investment. In order to enhance the efficiency of S&T investment, the structural, institutional, and managerial problems should be solved. Based on the requirement of "enhancing the efficiency of S&T investment" raised at the 20th National Congress of the CPC, the study analyzes the main contradictions in China's S&T investment and factors that restrict the efficiency of S&T investment, and puts forward policy suggestions.

Practice And Thinking Of Agency Level Budget Performance Evaluation Pilot In Chinese Academy Of Sciences, Hao Tang, Ruhan A, Jun He, Kaiyue Feng, Jun Gao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

In accordance with the request of Ministry of Finance, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) conducts a pilot study of comprehensive budget performance evaluation among six affiliated institutes of CAS. The research gives a systematic reviewing analysis from the perspectives of the background of the pilot study, construction of the evaluation logic model, design of the evaluation indicator system, organization and implementation of the whole pilot study, and the resulted effects thereof based on the specific practices. In the meantime, upon exploring of issues, including but not limited to, coordination of all kinds of evaluation work, the uniqueness of science and …

Analysis And Thinking On Developing Evolution Of National Innovation System, Defang He, Fuqiang Tang, Tao Chen, Xianfeng Luo, Fangjuan Yang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

As an important support for national security and socio-economic development, the national innovation system has been evolving continuously in the process of long-term historical evolution and selective construction. Based on the law of science and technology development, this study combines history study and logical analysis, and reveals the universal law and general trend of the national innovation system. Under the new development situation, this study also puts forward a common framework of national innovation system. The construction practice of China's national innovation system is summarized and suggestions are put forward to improve the overall efficiency of national innovation system.

David Versus Goliath: The Power Of Weakness In Asymmetric Warfare—Lessons From History, Nicholas K. Petaludis

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Under what conditions do violent nonstate actors (VNA) succeed against states? Why does David sometimes beat Goliath? Since at least the time of Thucydides and the Peloponnesian Wars, the realist narrative in international relations measures power primarily in relative, coercive, and deterrent terms. Strong states should accordingly face fewer constraints and enjoy more options while pursuing their national interests. Unconventional warfare, and its subsets of terrorism and insurgency, should—given these circumstances, end in VNA failure. Sometimes, however, VNAs find success. By comparing the literature on historical and current case studies, I propose that a set of preconditions and two mechanisms …

Impact Of Social Media  On Public Perception Of Government Covid-19 Response Efforts, Taher Taher

Theses and Dissertations

This research aims to understand this phenomenon to provide insights into how governments can perform better in times of crisis regarding social media and its impact on public opinion. This research aims to understand how social media impacts public perception of government COVID-19 response efforts by studying Facebook comments, likes, and reactions (emoticons).

The study was based on data gathered from Facebook comments on the daily infographic COVID-19 statistics from the official site of the Ministry of Health and Population. The sampling frame is the 52 weeks of 2020, January to December, through random sampling resulting in 546 comments. The …

Theory-Building And Tool-Building For A Science Of Dysfunctional Political Discourse, Eric Hamilton, Marguerite Williamson, Andrew Hurford

Education Division Scholarship

This paper extends a developing analytic framework for political discourse that takes place over digital social media. Earlier presentations of the framework have furnished a rationale for applying the conceptual framework of epistemic frame theory and the tools of quantitative ethnography for political discourse analysis. They have provided early existence proofs of the viability of epistemic network analysis (ENA) for rudimentary models of social media threads that involve political content. The current theoretical paper moves significantly beyond this foundation. It summarizes and deepens the explanation of the constructs of discursive transactions, response grammars, and epistemic frames in political discourse. It …

Assessing Spurious Correlations In Big Search Data, Jesse T. Richman, Ryan J. Roberts

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Big search data offers the opportunity to identify new and potentially real-time measures and predictors of important political, geographic, social, cultural, economic, and epidemiological phenomena, measures that might serve an important role as leading indicators in forecasts and nowcasts. However, it also presents vast new risks that scientists or the public will identify meaningless and totally spurious ‘relationships’ between variables. This study is the first to quantify that risk in the context of search data. We find that spurious correlations arise at exceptionally high frequencies among probability distributions examined for random variables based upon gamma (1, 1) and Gaussian random …

Twenty-First Century Split: Partisan, Racial, And Gender Differences In Circuit Judges Following Earlier Opinions, Stuart M. Benjamin, Byungkoo Kim, Kevin M. Quinn

Faculty Articles

Judges shape the law with their votes and the reasoning in their opinions. An important element of the latter is which opinions they follow, and thus elevate, and which they cast doubt on, and thus diminish. Using a unique and comprehensive dataset containing the substantive Shepard’s treatments of all circuit court published and unpublished majority opinions issued between 1974 and 2017, we examine the relationship between judges’ substantive treatments of earlier appellate cases and their party, race, and gender. Are judges more likely to follow opinions written by colleagues of the same party, race, or gender? What we find …

Supreme Court Interruptions And Interventions: The Changing Role Of The Chief Justice, Tonja Jacobi, Matthew Sag

Faculty Articles

Interruptions at Supreme Court oral argument have received much attention in recent years, particularly the disproportionate number of interruptions directed at the female Justices. The Supreme Court changed the structure of oral argument to try to address this problem. This Article assesses whether the frequency and gender disparity of interruptions of Justices improved in recent years, and whether the structural change in argument helped. It shows that interruptions decreased during the pandemic but then resurged to near-record highs, as has the gender disparity in Justice-to-Justice interruptions. However, although the rate of advocate interruptions of Justices also remains historically high, for …

The Summary Judgment Revolution That Wasn't, Jonathan R. Nash, D. Daniel Sokol

Faculty Articles

The U.S. Supreme Court decided a trilogy of cases on summary judgment in 1986. Questions remain as to how much effect these cases have had on judicial decision-making in terms of wins and losses for plaintiffs. Shifts in wins, losses, and what cases get to decisions on the merits impact access to justice. We assemble novel datasets to examine this question empirically in three areas of law that are more likely to respond to shifts in the standard for summary judgment: antitrust, securities regulation, and civil rights. We find that the Supreme Court’s decisions had a statistically significant effect in …

A Model Of Build Back Better Utilization: Long-Term Recovery Groups And Post-Disaster Housing Recovery, Eduardo Landaeta, Jesse Richman

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Housing recovery, especially for vulnerable populations, can be a challenging process. Questions regarding whether to rebuild damaged housing and whether to restore it to its previous state or to build back better must be answered. In the United States, Long-Term Recovery Groups (LTRGs) play a crucial role in channeling assistance to vulnerable community members as they embark on housing recovery. However, the experiences of LTRGs have been understudied. To address this gap, the study utilizes interviews with a diverse range of LTRG members and develops an agent-based model following the Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol. The results highlight …

The Role Of The United States In Advancing Democracy In Developing Countries: The Case Of Bangladesh, 2008-2020, Abdul Halim

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The United States has been working in close collaboration with the government of Bangladesh (GoB) to promote democratic norms and practices in the country. Over the past five decades, various US agencies have provided about $8 billion in foreign aid to Bangladesh (U.S. Department of State, 2022) with a significant percentage of these funds devoted to promoting democratic governance in the recipient nation. This study seeks to investigate the impact of US aid on democratization in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2020. Utilizing bi-variate statistical models, this essay analyzes four distinct measures of US-funded projects that directly promote democracy and their …

Twenty-First Century Split: Partisan, Racial, And Gender Differences In Circuit Judges Following Earlier Opinions, Stuart Minor Benjamin, Kevin M. Quinn, Byungkoo Kim

Faculty Scholarship

Judges shape the law with their votes and the reasoning in their opinions. An important element of the latter is which opinions they follow, and thus elevate, and which they cast doubt on, and thus diminish. Using a unique and comprehensive dataset containing the substantive Shepard’s treatments of all circuit court published and unpublished majority opinions issued between 1974 and 2017, we examine the relationship between judges’ substantive treatments of earlier appellate cases and their party, race, and gender. Are judges more likely to follow opinions written by colleagues of the same party, race, or gender? What we find is …

Applying Data Science And Machine Learning To Understand Health Care Transition For Adolescents And Emerging Adults With Special Health Care Needs, Lisamarie Turk

Nursing ETDs

A problem of classification places adolescents and emerging adults with special health care needs among the most at risk for poor or life-threatening health outcomes. This preliminary proof-of-concept study was conducted to determine if phenotypes of health care transition (HCT) for this vulnerable population could be established. Such phenotypes could support development of future studies that require data classifications as input. Mining of electronic health record data and cluster analysis were implemented to identify phenotypes. Subsequently, a machine learning concept model was developed for predicting acute care and medical condition severity. Three clusters were identified and described (Cluster 1, n …

Recommendations For Sustainable Tourism In Patagonia: An Exploratory Analysis Of Sustainable Tourism In Costa Rica, The Nordic Region, And Thailand’S Communities, Julia K. Lowery

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis explores different levels of governance and its role towards actualizing sustainable tourism in Patagonia. With the growing threat of climate change, international destinations such as Patagonia are looking to continue building their tourism industries in a sustainable way. Through analyzing case studies of national governance in Costa Rica, multi-national governance in the Nordic region, and community-based tourism in Thailand, we can better understand how each form of governance has the potential to create a sustainable tourism industry. With this understanding of successful governance in my case studies, as well as understanding the historical and political forces that have …

Dilemmas And Suggestions On Market-Based Data Allocation, Jinzhao Liu, Shouyang Wang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Big data is the primary engine for advancing the development of the digital economy, and market-based data allocation is a crucial method for promoting the development of China's digital economy. However, the current issues of "unclear ownership", "difficult pricing", and "imperfect transaction mechanisms" have severely constrained the market-based allocation of data. The study begins with a discussion of the dilemma of data rights delimitation, pricing, and trading. Then review the strategic initiative of international data market construction and the development of China's data trading market. Finally, based on the practice of China's big data market construction, the study proposes some …

Research On Market Allocation Efficiency Of Data Elements, Han Qiao, Zhuolun Li

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Promoting the market allocation of data elements is the key to realize the value of data resources, which drives the high-quality development of digital economy. Based on the literature review, this study first analyses the theoretical process of market allocation of data elements, and divides the whole process into two stages: market-based construction and value-based allocation. According to the proposed theoretical model, this study designs the network DEA model with additional intermediate inputs to calculate the market allocation efficiency of data elements of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2019 to 2020. Moreover, by Malmquist index analysis, we further …

Promoting Safe And Orderly Flow Of Cross-Border Data To Lead Development Of Globalization Of Digital Economy, Yongmiao Hong, Ming Zhang, Ying Liu

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

While cross-border data flow considerably improves the effectiveness of cross-border collaborations, it also faces issues of data sovereignty, national security, conflict of interest, privacy protection and data regulation. It has become a link to the global economy and the center of the game of the new order. First of all, this study analyzes the role of cross-border data flow in economic globalization from the perspective of the economic impact of data elements. It then analyzes the constraints of cross-border data flow in the global context and lists the benefits and drawbacks of China’s data element market construction. In the end, …

Promote Market-Oriented Allocation Of Data Elements, Accelerate Release Of New Drives Of Digital Economy—Preface On Special Column “Market-Oriented Allocation Of Data Elements”, Shouyang Wang, Yongmiao Hong, Han Qiao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

No abstract provided.

Research On Measurement Of Digital Economy Growth And Data As Production Factor, Xianchun Xu, Yaru Hu, Meihui Zhang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Research on measurement of digital economy growth and data as a production factor are important research topics under the background of digital transformation. This study firstly combs the concept, scope, and classification of digital economy, and elaborates the calculation method of digital economy growth. Then, it discusses the concept, characteristics, and classification of data, as well as the concept and value measurement of data assets. Furthermore, it puts forward relevant suggestions on the challenges faced by the measurement of digital economy growth and the data as a production factor. This research is expected to provide references for promoting the measurement …

Thoughts On National Unified Data Asset Registration System, Lihua Huang, Mengke Guo, Zhiqing Shao, Xuan Qin, Qifeng Tang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Data asset registration is a vital component of data factor market system. Recently, several Chinese regions and institutions have begun to work on data asset registration, but problems persist for the unclear concept of data asset registration and the deficiency of registration and service systems. By virtue of summarizing the active typical registration system in China, this study puts forward the concept of data asset registration and the "seven unifications" principle of registration. The new data value chain is established based on the perspective of factor flow, and the concepts of resource-based and operational data assets are proposed. Moreover, this …

On Building Data Market Based On Supply Side, Chaochun Huang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Data market is the foundation of digital economy. Following General Secretary Xi Jinping's thought on promoting the classification, grading and separation of data, defining the rights and ensuring proper use of data, this study focuses on the main theoretical and practical issues of building data market by answering three questions which are why to build it, what to build, and how to build. It finds that the digital economy shows three-stages of development. With the enterprise data becoming dominant, it puts forward realistic requirements and offers development opportunities for data market. To overcome the obstacles in the way of building …

Think Tank Science And Engineering: Construction Of New High-End Think Tank Starts From Specialization And Scientifization To Disciplinization—Interview With Professor Pan Jiaofeng, Editorial Office Bulletin Of Chinese Academy Of Sciences

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

No abstract provided.

Biblical Principles Of Reform And Regeneration: An Intellectual Framework For Christians Addressing Social Change, Kahlib Fischer

Liberty University Journal of Statesmanship & Public Policy

This paper seeks to provide Biblical perspective on social and cultural reform. At the time of this writing, much upheaval in the form of a pandemic, race riots, and political protests have manifested both within America and abroad. In turn, these disputes have carried over into conflict within various denominations of the Church itself. This paper will provide some guiding Biblical themes from Scripture that are relevant to these very difficult issues today. It will also address common pitfalls the Church can easily fall into in dealing with these issues, and how these extremes can be avoided.