Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of …

Currant Theory, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2011). Current theory (Handwritten note by Anwar Shaikh, PhD). New School University Archives.
• Foley, D. (2010, November 27). Re: circuiste theory (Email). New School University Archives.
• Cardim de Carvalho, F. J. (2003). Circuit theory. In J. E. King (Ed.), The Elgar companion to post Keynesian economics (pp. 60–61). Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Realfonzo, R. (2003). Circuit theory. In J. E. King (Ed.), The Elgar companion to post Keynesian economics (pp. 61–64). Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Shaikh, A. (2011, January 19). Circuitist models comments.doc (Manuscript with handwritten notes). New School University Archives.
• Shaikh, A. (2004, March 12). Comments …

Godley Conference Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Godley conference paper (file folder). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, manuscript in progress, 2011.
• Economic policy in a growth context. Anwar Shaikh, Macroeconomics and Growth, 2008, Palgrave Macmillan.
• Notes on New Cambridge and Ruggles (unpublished manuscript). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, May 01, 2011.
• Effect of depletion rates on KGC and KNC estimates (data analysis commentary). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, February 22, 2011.
• I have spent many a happy hour here at the Levy (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 2011.
• On Godley & KK (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 2011.
• The role of the savings rate in Godley's macroeconomics (manuscript outline). …

Real-Time Forecasting, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This chapter will discuss real-time forecasting in a macroeconomic policy context. I will begin by talking about the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a survey of private-sector forecasters. Next, I will discuss research on real-time data analysis and its importance in forecasting. Finally, I will discuss real-time forecasting in the 1990s.

Cps, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Wage Equivalents (WEQ) and Sectoral Account Inquiries, by A. Shaikh (2010, August 24). Personal communication.
• Income and Outlays of Households and of Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households, by C. I. Mead, C. P. McCully, and M. B. Reinsdorf (2003, April). Survey of Current Business, 83(4), 13–17. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts, by N. Mayerhauser and M. Reinsdorf (2007, September 11). Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Measurement of Gross Operating Surplus (GOS), by A. Shaikh (2009). Unpublished manuscript.
• Gross Operating Surplus, Imputed Interest, and Measures of Profitability, by …

Estimating Kg, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Route 91,841 Estimating KG, by A. Shaikh (2000, November 12). Unpublished manuscript.
• Figure 4: Nominal Depletion Rates (Based on BEA 1993 Data), by A. Shaikh (2006, October 10). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect of Initial Points on KGC Estimates (BEA 1993 vs. Gorman SCB 1985), by A. Shaikh (2011, March 9). Unpublished manuscript.
• Chapter 7: Measurement of Profit, Capital and the Rate of Profit, by A. Shaikh (2011, March 9). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect Sudden Retirement KGH and KHN, by A. Shaikh (2010, July 25). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect of Initial Values on Corp Nonfin KG …

Inet Ii Bretton Woods, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• INET Event Office. (2011, March 11). Inet 2011 conference confirmation (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 9).
• INET Event Office. (2011, April 4). Inet logistics (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 2).
• Amtrak. (2011, April 4). Reservation confirmation - this is not a ticket (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 12).
• Fetko, M. (2011, April 4). Re: lodging at bretton woods for anwar shaikh (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 6).

Classical Theory Output Level, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Classical theory: output level (Unpublished manuscript) (22-23_Clas... p. 1).
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Output level classical theory.xlsx (Unpublished dataset) (22-23_Clas... p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Output level in economic theories (Unpublished manuscript) (22-23_Clas... p. 5).
• Godley, W., & Shaikh, A. (2002). An important inconsistency at the heart of the standard macroeconomic model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 24(3), 423–441. Taylor & Francis (22-23_Clas... p. 20).
• Gandolfo, G. (1985). Economic dynamics: Methods and models. North-Holland (22-23_Clas... p. 20).

Inflation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Inflation & fluid flow analogy (file folder). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 2011.
• Thruput NIPA and excess demand (manuscript outline). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, May 15, 2011.
• Thruput as growth limit (manuscript outline). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, May 2011.
• Lectures on the theory of production. Luigi L. Pasinetti, Columbia University Press, 1977, Columbia University Press.
• Thruput model (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, February 24, 2011.
• Alberto Nan & fas: Prop defense (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, February 24, 2011.
• Water flow, electrical circuit and inflation analogy (unpublished manuscript). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, May 15, 2011.
• In my inflation equation (handwritten notes). …

Inet Proposal Stage 2, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

his collection includes:

• Institute for New Economic Thinking. (2011). Standard pre-grant inquiry (PGI) form for grant #3232 (Manuscript). New School University Archives.
• Puller, N. (2011, July 11). Email correspondence regarding INET pre-grant inquiry for #3232 (Email). New School University Archives.
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Project budget for sponsor INET (Period: June 1, 2011 to August 31, 2012) (Manuscript). New School University Archives.
• Shaikh, A. (2011, April 24). Institute for New Economic Thinking proposal stage II cover letter (Manuscript). New School University Archives.
• Shaikh, A. (2011, April 14). New School institutional giving grant proposal form (Manuscript with handwritten note "Scanned & emailed"). …

Measurement Of Profit, Capital & Rop, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Ch 7: Measurement of profit, capital & ROP by Anwar Shaikh
• Appendix 7.1: Measurement of profit by Anwar Shaikh
• Appendix 7.2: Measurement of capital and the rate of profit by Anwar Shaikh
• Appendix 7.2A: Alternate treatments of the rate of profit by Anwar Shaikh

Fiscal Impact Of Privatization In Developing Countries, Alexander H. Sunderland

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the fiscal impact of privatization revenues in 47 developing countries. There are many reasons that privatization is attractive for the central government of developing countries. If substantial, these revenues from the sale of state owned enterprises can present a potential solution to persistent deficits. On the other hand, the privatization revenues could be used to finance an even larger deficit. In this paper, I will discuss previous research on the fiscal impact of privatization revenues, the factors that contribute to persistent fiscal budget deficits and explain how empirical research on the fiscal impact of privatization in the …

The Impact Of Terrorism On Foreign Direct Investment: Which Sectors Are More Vulnerable?, Shivani Agrawal

CMC Senior Theses

The impact of conflict and violence on foreign direct investment (FDI) is not a topic that has been done justice by the literature, and what few studies exist have contradictory results. This paper studies the impact that transnational terrorism has on FDI inflows by economic sector, in developed countries. Results indicate a statistically significant negative correlation between terrorist events and total FDI inflows. Amongst a list of 12 broad industrial sectors, FDI inflows for manufacturing, trade and repair, and construction were found to have a statistically significant negative correlation with terrorist events.

Can The Monetary Integration Of Ecowas Improve Intra-Regional Trade?, Chinweuba E. Ezekwesili

CMC Senior Theses

A gravity model is used to evaluate the effects of currency union on intra-regional trade of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) member states. The panel data used includes bilateral observations for fourteen years spanning 1994 through 2006 for 16 countries. Controlling for determinants and deterrents of trade, I find the presence of a currency union three times as likely to increase intra-regional trade between ECOWAS member countries. In addition, I find that the effect on trade creation has been steadily falling since 1994.

America's First Great Moderation, Ryan Shaffer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper identifies America's first Great Moderation, a period from 1841-1856 of unbroken economic expansion and low volatility comparable to the Great Moderation of the 1980s-2000s. This moderation occurred despite a lack of central banks, low governmental spending, and barriers to interstate commerce during the antebellum period. I demonstrate this moderation in industrial production and stock market indexes and compare the first Great Moderation with the second in these economic factors. These results also call into question the conventional wisdom of the National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle chronology that the antebellum period was volatile and fraught with recessions. …

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …

The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch

CMC Senior Theses

Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …

Alleviating Social Disadvantages Of Rapid Economic Growth: A Case For Conditional Cash Transfer (Cct) Application In Old Siam, Anastasia Kostioukova

CMC Senior Theses

The ongoing conflict between Thailand’s red shirt and yellow shirt parties is not purely political. This tension is rooted in a renewed awareness of regional economic and social inequality, a byproduct of rapid economic growth in the past. This thesis seeks to understand the overall consequences of unequal economic development in Thailand, as the rationale for asserting that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program is an appropriate policy tool for the ongoing reconciliation efforts.

Credit Market Imperfections, Financial Crisis And The Transmission Of Monetary Policy, Brett Spencer

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses U.S. macroeconomic data drawn from 2001 to 2010 in order to test for the operation of a credit channel of monetary transmission. Using a combination of a VAR and ADL time series frameworks, evidence is found for the impairment of the credit channel during the crisis period relative to the period which preceded it. Evidence is also found against the presence of a "credit crunch" during the crisis, and supporting evidence is found for the existence of a "credit trap." This analysis indicates a significant role for credit market imperfections in the transmission of monetary policy, and …

Chapter 3, Two Versions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, Anwar. Handwritten archival overview notes regarding multiple versions of chapter three and macrofoundations of method. Unpublished manuscript.
• Shaikh, Anwar. Microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics. Unpublished work.
• Shaikh, Anwar. Earlier raw draft version of chapter three titled microfoundations, emergent properties and nonlinear dynamics. Unpublished work.