Macroeconomics Commons^™

Interest Rate Policy In China: The Impact Of Suppressed Deposit Rates On Household Income From 2000-2007, Zhuliang James Zhang

Undergraduate Economic Review

An often-overlooked impact of China’s policy of maintaining low interest has been the suppression of household interest income, which has increased the propensity of households to save while decreasing their consumption rates. This paper posits that from 2000 to 2007, deposit rates in China were suppressed annually by around 720 basis points, imposing an implicit tax on annual per-capita income of 12.8% on average. Raising deposit rates will increase household income and boost consumption in the medium-term if the Chinese government is able to initiate policy shifts that distribute the gains of economic growth more equitably to households. Research advised …

Essays On An Asean Optimal Currency Area, Kathryn J. Whittaker Huff

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Many regions of the world would like to replicate the financial and monetary integration of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have shown an interest in such an arrangement. ASEAN is a political, cultural, and economic association that includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Many of these nations are experiencing rapid economic development while others are still relatively poor and under developed. As such, they appear to be an unlikely group for currency unification. Older studies suggest that multiple currency union groupings may be …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The aim of this report is to highlight a broad spectrum of issues that brings about the measurement of the disagreement and the uncertainity and the formation of inflation expectations among economic agents in Singapore.

Economic Empowerment And Hiv Prevention Among Young Women And Girls In Kenya: Lessons From The Study Of Economic Empowerment Programs, Samantha Van Putten

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

One of the major issues facing Kenya is HIV/AIDS. With recognition by the global community that providing women with economic opportunities can help both those who are HIV positive, as well as in prevention for those who are not infected, programs combining microfinance and HIV education have started to emerge. While women in these programs 3 3 have shown preliminary signs of success, young girls did not respond as well in part due to lack of interest in the particular programs themselves. As such, this study examines two economic empowerment programs for girls and young mothers at the non-governmental organization …

Will Specialization Continue Forever? A Case Study Of Interactions Between Industry Specialization And Diversity, Xiaobing Shuai

School of Professional and Continuing Studies Faculty Publications

This paper studies the interactions between industry specialization and diversity. Several studies have shown that competitive industries in a region grew faster, thus expanding their shares in overall employment. The implication is that a region will become more specialized in its competitive industries and the process will continue forever barring external intervention. Utilizing an econometric model on county level employment growth in Virginia, this study confirms that competitive industries experience faster employment growth, reinforcing specialization. However, as specialization proceeds, it reduces economic diversity. That will hurt job creation, as economic diversity also stimulates employment growth. The interactions between specialization and …

Two Essays On The Effect Of Macroeconomic News On The Stock Market, Ajay Kongera

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation uses macroeconomic variables. In the first essay I use macroeconomic variables to determine if these variables affect the market's returns and volatilities, and in the second essay I examine whether the 11-month returns can be explained by these variables.

Using macroeconomic variables and forecasts of these variables on a quarterly basis from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, I first develop macroeconomic surprise variables. The macroeconomic surprise variables are then modified by dispersion of forecasts to adjust for surprises from uncertainty. Dispersion adjusted forecast surprises have not been used extensively in the literature. I also use a monetary shock …

Monetary Integration: The West African Experience, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit

Bullion

This paper discusses the experience of monetary integration in West Africa. The second part of the paper presents on historical overview of monetary integration in West Africa. Part lll briefly examines the Union Economique et Monetoire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). Part lV discusses the Second Monetary Zone in West Africa (WAMZ), while Part V contains performance assessment of the ECOWAS Monetary Cooperation Programme. The Lingering Challenges ore outlined in Port Vl. Part Vll contains some concluding remarks.

Money And Inflation: Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Okafor Ifeanyi Izuchukwu, Ameh Oguche Sunday

Bullion

The paper establishes the relationship between monetary policy and inflation.

La Génération Perdue: Youth Unemployment In France And The Policies Behind It, Katharine L. O'Kane

Senior Honors Projects

In the 1970s, the world began moving towards free market policies. Open borders, lower taxes, and market-based economies became more prominent as centrally planned governments declined in both number and significance. In order to participate in European trade and to enhance its global position, France also moved towards decentralization. French socialists became less concerned with centralized government, yet continued to preserve their strong national desire to protect French citizens. France experienced substantial growth in its employment costs during the 1980s. By the early 1990s, France introduced labor contracts that better defined the duration of employment. These contracts pressured French companies …

America's Turning Point, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Central Banking Beats Free Banking? It Just Ain’T So!, Fred Foldvary

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Sectoral Changes And The Increase In Women's Labor Force Participation, Rahşan Akbulut

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Throughout the second half of the 20th century, women in the United States decided to move increasingly into the labor market. This paper investigates the growth of the service sector as an explanation for the increase in women's employment. It develops an economic model that can account for the increase in women's employment and the growth of the service sector at the same time. A growth model with two sectors and a home production technology is constructed in order to quantitatively assess the contribution of sectoral productivity differences to the change in women's employment decision. The sectoral productivities are taken …

The Question Of Slavery, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of U.S. State Taxes On State Economic Prosperity, Casey Dainsberg

Political Science Theses and Capstones

Policy makers today are faced with trying to create solutions for economic troubles that become increasingly more complex and foreboding. Tax cuts and tax hikes are proposed and considered as possible solutions to various economic problems. However, the question still remains regarding which policies are most effective. The purpose of this research is to asses these competing claims. It seeks to find evidence that will shed light on one of these views. I have done this by accumulating tax and economic data from the fifty U.S. States between the years 2001-2009. Previous research has concluded that taxes do affect the …

Decomposing The Changes Of The Divisia Price Index: Application To Inflation In The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a method to decompose the logarithmic change of the Divisia price index into the pure price effect, the preference effect and the substitution effect. Our empirical results in the Philippines shows the effects of preference change on the Divisia price index are heterogeneous but positive across all regions and income deciles. However, they are dominated by the pure price effect.

Friedrich Von Hayek: The Socialist-Calculation Debate, Knowledge Arguments, And Modern Economic Development, Cara A. Elliott

Gettysburg Economic Review

At the close of the nineteenth and the commencement of the twentieth century, socialism began to gain momentum as a large-scale movement in Europe and the United States. This popularity was supported by an increased influence of the working class in society, which put pressure for representation upon European parliaments and began to secure concrete improvements in labor protection laws. Moreover, socialist proponents looked hopefully towards the living example of the Soviet Union, which began its socialist experiment in 1917 following the success of the Bolshevik Revolution. Socialism, which found its economic grounding in the legacies of such men as …

Do Major League Baseball Hitters Come Up Big In Their Contract Year?, Heather M. O'Neill, Matthew J. Hummel

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

In sports, especially baseball, there is a lot of talk about contract year performance. Beginning in spring training and continuing throughout the season, sports journalists and fans converse about how players in the last year of their contract will perform. Experts in the media, often ex-baseball players themselves, speculate contract year players will have break-out seasons in order to secure a better contract in upcoming contract negotiations. This leads to the question: do baseball players increase their effort and performance during their contract year to increase the value of their next contract?

Monetary And Fiscal Policies: Ordinary Recessions And Financial Crises, Svetoslav I. Semov

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper uses two different samples to study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the profiles of recessions and recoveries. Several results emerge from the econometric analysis presented. First, monetary policy during ordinary recessions and banking crises is a powerful tool with lasting effects that extend to recovery growth rates. However, the effect of monetary policy during financial crises is strongly diminished in the case of forbearance – banks left to function despite being technically insolvent. Second, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is reversed – it is a powerful tool during banking crises, but it does not seem …

Macroeconomics After The Great Recession: Consensus Or Conflict?, Hailiang Xu

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Unlike microeconomics where there are relatively few disagreements, the field of macroeconomics has always been the arena of several competing theories. Despite that history of conflict, in the late 1980s during the Great Moderation, the New Classicals and the New Keynesians reached an agreement, known as the New Consensus during the Great Moderation. For decades, the New Consensus has dominated macroeconomic theory and policymaking not only in the U.S., but also throughout the world. After many years of calm, however, the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis and its consequent Great Recession demonstrated that how fragile that consensus was.

While the debate …

Competition Red, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Classical definition of costs by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Notes on fixed capital and joint production by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Models of adjustment of mkt prices to POP by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Price, marginal cost and the business cycle by Jonathan Haskel, Christopher Martin, and Ian Small
• Four themes present in the discussion of PE by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Competition of capital mobility by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Profit rates within industry by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• The structure of Kalecki's theory by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Average and incremental profit rates: US and OECD by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Correspondence to …

Microfoundations Revisions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. March 11, 2011. Chapter 3: microfoundations revisions (Handwritten folder notes). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, 2009. What's left of microeconomics? Microfoundations and emergent macro properties (Unpublished manuscript draft). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. July 4, 2012. Micro talk NSSR (Handwritten lecture notes). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, 2009. Rethinking microeconomics: a proposed reconstruction (Unpublished manuscript draft). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, …

Loose Magazines, Notes, Dissertation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Turbulent dynamics in advanced societies (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Turbulent dynamics and pattern recurrence: Economic analysis in a global context (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 3).
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Turbulent dynamics and hidden patterns: Economic analysis in a global context (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 4).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Mathematical equation on cumulative output fractions (Unpublished manuscript note) (22-16_Loos... p. 6).
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Current summary table of contents (Unpublished manuscript table of contents) (22-16_Loos... p. 7).
• Shaikh, A. (2010). The economic analysis …

Signal Extraction From The Components Of The Philippine National Accounts Statistics Using Arima Model-Based Methodology, Cesar C. Rufino

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The state-of-the-art in signal extraction gradually evolved from the use of mechanical form of moving average filters to the present sophisticated model-based techniques capable of performing automatic modeling and signal extraction involving hundreds or even thousands of time series in one production run. The leading edge of technology is being shared by two ARIMA model-based systems – ARIMA X12 of the US Bureau of Census and the twin programs TRAMO-SEATS developed at the Bank of Spain. These specialized expert systems have been adopted by most statistical agencies of advanced OECD countries and the European community. The Philippines on the other …