Macroeconomics Commons^™

Nebraska Snaps Back, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

Nebraska will fully participate in stronger U.S. economic growth. While the farming sector will continue to face challenges, farm income will rise slightly during the forecast period, and consequently, will no longer detract from Nebraska economic growth. Nebraska will match U.S. job growth, with job growth particularly strong in services, construction, and retail trade. The agricultural processing sector also will expand employment. Projected growth rates for 2018 through 2020 are presented in Table 1.

Employment will grow by 1.1% to 1.2% per year, matching the national job growth rate in 2019 and 2020. Non-farm income will grow between 3.9% and …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 22, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.24% during October of 2017. The decrease in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that economic growth will slow in Nebraska during the second quarter of 2018. The fall in the indicator was due to an decline in building permits for single-family homes and manufacturing hours-worked. There also was an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar in October. The increase in the value of the dollar is challenging for Nebraska exporters. In terms of positive components, there was a …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: November 3, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer confidence remained weak during October while business confidence remained strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 95.1 in October, below the neutral value of 100.0. By contrast, the Nebraska business confidence remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 102.7 in October, below the September level of 105.2 but above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 31 percent of business respondents. Businesses also faced growing competition in both the labor and product markets. The availability and quality of …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 25, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 1.86% during September of 2017. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests solid economic growth in Nebraska during the first quarter of 2018. The rise in the indicator was due to an increase in building permits for single-family homes and growth in manufacturing hours-worked. There also was a decline in the value of the dollar in September, which is positive for Nebraska exporters. Finally, there were positive business expectations. Businesses responding to the September Survey of Nebraska Business reported …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: October 6, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer confidence tumbled during September while business confidence held steady. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell to 93.5 in September, well below the reading of 100.9 in August and the neutral value of 100.0. Consumer confidence is now weak in Nebraska. By contrast, the Nebraska business confidence remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 105.2 in September, slightly above the August value of 104.2, and well above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 37 percent of business respondents. Businesses …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 20, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.38% during August of 2017. The decline in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that the Nebraska economy will grow slowly during the first few months of 2018. The drop in the indicator was primarily due to a decline in manufacturing hours-worked during August. Building permits for single-family homes and airline passenger enplanements also dropped slightly. There were two positive components of the LEI-N. Businesses responding to the August Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: September 1, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Nebraska’s consumer and business confidence fell during August. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 100.9 in August, below the reading of 102.5 from July. Notably, the CCI-N remained above the neutral value of 100.0 during August. The outlook of Nebraska businesses remained strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) stood at 104.2 in August, close to the value of 105.1 during July, and well above the neutral value of 100.0. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 35 percent of business respondents. Businesses also faced growing competition in …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 23, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 rose by 0.56% during July of 2017. The increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, suggests that the Nebraska economy will grow through the first month of 2018. Four components of the indicator improved during July. Business expectations were solid and manufacturing hours grew. The value of the U.S. dollar continued its recent decline, a positive sign for Nebraska’s export-oriented businesses. Further, in a positive sign for the labor market, there also was a drop in initial claims for unemployment insurance. In terms …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: August 4, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer and business confidence remained strong in Nebraska during July but fell from June levels. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 102.5 in July after a reading of 104.7 during June. Despite the decline of 2.2, the CCI-N remained above the neutral value of 100.0, indicating strong consumer confidence. The outlook of Nebraska businesses also was strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) fell to 105.1 in July from 109.2 in June. The BCI-N remained well above the neutral value in July, despite the 4.1 point decline, which indicates that business confidence is also strong in …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: July 7, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence rose sharply in Nebraska during June 2017 while business confidence remained very strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) stood at 100.4 in May but rose to 104.7 during June, which is well above the neutral value of 100.0. The outlook of Nebraska businesses remained very strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) fell to 109.2 in June, well above the neutral value and just below its May value of 110.2. Business confidence has been very strong in Nebraska throughout the first half of 2017. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: June 21, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.51% during May of 2017. This is the second consecutive monthly decline in the LEI-N. The declines followed three months of rapid increase from January through March of 2017. Taken together, the LEI-N values imply a moderation in economic growth in Nebraska in late 2017 after strong growth midyear. Among the components of the indicator, business expectations were strong during May while the value of the U.S. dollar fell, which is a positive sign for Nebraska’s export-oriented businesses. However, manufacturing hours, building permits and airline passen

More Balanced Economic Growth, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

There has been a re-balancing of both global and domestic economic growth during 2017. Globally, growth is improving in Europe and China, yielding more balanced international growth. Within the United States, growth also has become more balanced across industries. As in past years, the service sector, supported by growth in employment and real wages, has grown steadily with increases in retail trade, business services, personal services and construction activity. However, in recent months, there also has been improved growth in the industrial sector, with a rebound in the energy sector, and more business investment in capital equipment. The result is …

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: June 2, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Consumer confidence fell in Nebraska during May 2017 while business confidence remained very strong. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) fell to roughly neutral during May. The CCI-N stood at 102.5 in April but fell to 100.4 during May, which is only slightly above the neutral value of 100.0. The outlook of Nebraska businesses remained very strong. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) rose to 110.2 in May, above its April value of 109.1 and well above the neutral value. Business confidence has been very strong in Nebraska during the first five months of 2017. When asked about …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 24, 2017, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.88% during April of 2017. The decline followed three months of rapid increase in January through March, implying a moderation in the outlook for the Nebraska economy in late 2017. Among the components of the indicator, business expectations were strong during April while the value of the U.S. dollar fell, which is a positive sign for Nebraska’s export-oriented businesses. However, manufacturing hours, building permits and airline passenger counts all declined during April, while initial claims for unemployment insurance rose.

Selecting An Alternative National Banking System Against Fractional Reserve Free Banking: The Greatest Modern Fraud?, Josiah J. Bardy

Senior Honors Theses

This paper serves as a compilation and analysis of different banking systems with an emphasis on fractional reserve free banking. Contemporary academic literature has debated fractional reserve banking with revisited scrutiny since the 2007–2009 financial crisis. The Austrian School, drawing conclusions from the Austrian business cycle theory, blames central banking for boom-bust economics. One proposed solution, fractional reserve free banking, eliminates the central bank’s control for a purer form of fractional reserve practice; however, this system may be inherently fraudulent and unethical. After completing an economic analysis of the western world’s banking system, this paper then explores an alternative solution.

The Political Impact Of Rising Trade Exposure: Evidence From 2000 - 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, Xiaoyang Qian

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper we analyze the impact of global imports on regional labor markets, and how such impact translates to changes in voting patterns in the U.S. Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. We find that imports from different U.S. trading partners influence voting patterns in different ways. In particular, we observe an anti-incumbent effect caused by import competition from OECD countries. Such an effect cannot be observed for imports from low-income countries. There is also evidence that suggests high exposure to import competition tends to drive voters toward the Democratic candidate, who typically proposes better social welfare programs and …

The End Of The Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes In The U.S. Economy Have Impacted Economic Growth, Maxwell J. Urman

CMC Senior Theses

Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by about …

Degree Matters: The Impact Of A Leader’S Foreign Education On His Country’S Economic Development, Zhongyi Yu

CMC Senior Theses

I analyze the correlation between a nation leader’s foreign education experience and their nation’s GDP growth and economic freedom in African, Asian, and South American countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between a leader’s foreign education and the country’s GDP growth rate, especially in Africa. Data also shows that a leader’s foreign education is positively correlated with his country’s economic freedom. Despite the fact that the regressions can only demonstrate correlation as opposed to causation relationships among variables, further analysis of the results concludes that a leader’s education and the country’s development are reciprocal. The findings of this paper …

The Impact Of Culture, Institutions, And The Euro On Trade Flows In Europe, James Aylward

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper sets out to study the role of cultural and institutional differences across European countries in explaining patterns of bilateral trade within Europe by using a gravity model approach on panel data for 24 European countries, covering the years 2002 through 2006. It may be expected that cultural and institutional “distance” between Eurozone countries would have a comparatively smaller impact on bilateral trade flows by virtue of the countries’ shared currency relative to the impact of such determinants on bilateral trade flows between two countries that do not share a currency. Alternatively, such determinants could have a significant impact …

Why Ireland: How Bank Failure Was Their Key To Success, Nia R. Gillenwater

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

Despite Ireland’s status as the first EU country to receive a bailout, Ireland appears to be bouncing back extremely well from the ongoing financial crisis in Europe and the EU. Looking at recent Irish economic statistics it begs the question whether the government’s complete guarantee of all Irish debts was the best response. Ireland’s financial crisis seemed quite similar to America’s: for both the root causes are freely lending for real estate and property. The responses however, were very different. While America let Lehman Brothers fail and only provided a partial guarantee to its banks, Ireland provided a complete guarantee …

Natural Disasters In Latin America: The Role Of Disaster Type And Productive Sector On The Urban-Rural Income Gap And Rural To Urban Migration, Madeline Alice Messick

Dissertations

This research provides insight into the impact of natural disasters as drivers of rural to urban migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Disasters of varying types are predicted to have differing impacts on the productive sectors of agriculture, industry, and services; which due to the concentration of the various productive sectors in either urban or rural areas, subsequently changes the urban-rural wage differential. Changes to the wage differential (as measured by the urban-rural income gap) are predicted to lead to movement between urban and rural areas until a new equilibrium wage is reached.

This dissertation first identifies a …

The Investment Casualties Of War: Global Impacts Of Armed Conflict On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Reinhard J. Cate Mr.

Master's Theses

Abstract: Involvement in the outbreak of an armed conflict can present a variety of potential risks to an involved nation’s economy. In this paper I examine if one one of those risks, specifically that a new war could scare away foreign investment actually occurs and whether the intensity of the conflict increases or lessens the potential impact. Using ordinary least squares on panel data from 1966 to 2015, I examine the short and long term impacts of armed conflict on global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows using two measures of conflict intensity: Large conflicts or ‘wars’, with 1000 or more …

Geospatial Modeling Of Vietnamese Fdi, Cuong Nguyen Tien

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis sets a goal to analyze and project geographically disaggregated measures of FDI using aggregate data. We regress the country level FDI with aggregate, fine geospatial data on GDP, urban extent, and risk. By disaggregating the model, we will predict the FDI flow in every 1000 square kilometer area.

From The Classical School To Today: The Evolution Of Stagnation Theories, Francis J. Lukacovic Ii

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to study the theory of secular stagnation, which was made famous by the American Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen in his book Full Recovery or Stagnation. The theory of secular stagnation has reappeared in economic circles today due to recent economic conditions since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The thesis will analyze the history of the stagnation theory dating back to Classical economists in the 19^th century. The concept of a stagnating economy has been talked about for centuries with many economists adding important thoughts. Furthermore, the thesis will address the current questions and …

The Distribution Of Globalized Power, Rachel Canter

Best Integrated Writing

Canter reviews Thomas Friedman’s The Lexus and the Olive Tree and observes the dissonance between our notions of globalization and global society; she offers an alternate worldview that pays respect to regional cultures and values.

Informational Efficiency And The Reaction To Terrorism: A Financial Perspective, Nicholas Roland

Honors Undergraduate Theses

The purpose of this study is to measure the message terror organizations hope to convey using the financial markets as a proxy of measurement to determine patterns within the marketplace and the effects on the terrorists’ ability to deliver a desired message due to the increased use of digital devices and access to instantaneous news, seen over the past decade. Using death count, geographic location, and event type, this study identified 109 attacks between 1985 and 2015 to be analyzed against 5 market indices and 5 securities. Measuring the effects within a 10-day sample window from the time of the …

Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies: The Case Of Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim

Business Administration

Coordination is defined as the necessary arrangements that assure that the decisions taken by monetary and fiscal authorities are not contradictory. The need for effective coordination of policies becomes pressing with the increasing independence of both authorities to implement their objectives. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the extent of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in Egypt over the period (1974-2015). Quantifying the extent of coordination depends on the appropriate policy mix that responds effectively to different shocks. The results confirm that coordination of policies was absent or weak during most of the period under study, while …

Marx, Map, Itoh Koc Letters, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Capitalism: competition, conflict, crises by Anwar Shaikh, 2016, Oxford University Press.
• Karl Marx in Camden by London Borough of Camden Libraries and Arts Department, 1983, London Borough of Camden.
• Letter to Anwar Shaikh by Yıldırım Koç, 1985, Unpublished manuscript.
• Letter to Anwar Shaikh by Makoto Itoh, 1975, Unpublished manuscript.
• Handwritten notes on envelope by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, 1976, Unpublished manuscript.

A Critical Examination Of Oil Wealth Management Strategies And Their Effects On Economic Growth In The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Caroline J. Belmont

CMC Senior Theses

Despite their natural resources, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman) have failed to live up to their economic potential, primarily due to their dependence on a revenue source with volatile prices and political significance in an unstable region. This thesis argues that the best way to convert oil wealth into consistent long term growth is through diversification, both by investing in foreign assets and by growing domestic sectors that are independent from oil and gas prices. The research further investigates the primary tool these countries have used to …

Fishing For A Sustainable Future: Aquaponics As A Method Of Food Production, Richard Ramsundar

Student Theses 2015-Present

This thesis compares and explains the advantages aquaponics farming has over modern industrial intensive farming. Through a comparison natural capital usage, conservation, recycling and cost, the thesis advocates for the expansion of aquaponics usage in urban settings. The thesis also explains the history of intensive farming and aquaponics in America, the science of how aquaponics operates, the economic and environmental costs of modern intensive farming versus aquaponics farming, and the social implications of aquaponics. Lastly, I propose a policy that reallocates farm subsidies by modifying the Farm Bill. Then I propose policies that support creating a new standard of farm …