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Articles 121 - 150 of 315
Full-Text Articles in Labor Economics
Bias And Productivity In Humans And Machines, Bo Cowgill
Bias And Productivity In Humans And Machines, Bo Cowgill
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Where should better learning technology (such as machine learning or AI) improve decisions? I develop a model of decision-making in which better learning technology is complementary with experimentation. Noisy, inconsistent decision-making introduces quasi-experimental variation into training datasets, which complements learning. The model makes heterogeneous predictions about when machine learning algorithms can improve human biases. These algorithms can remove human biases exhibited in historical training data, but only if the human training decisions are sufficiently noisy; otherwise, the algorithms will codify or exacerbate existing biases. Algorithms need only a small amount of noise to correct biases that cause large productivity distortions. …
Search And Multiple Jobholding, Etienne Lalé
Search And Multiple Jobholding, Etienne Lalé
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
A search-theoretic model of the labor market with idiosyncratic fluctuations in hours worked, search both off- and on-the-job, and multiple jobholding is developed. Taking on a second job entails a commitment to hold onto the primary employer, enabling the worker to use the primary job as her outside option to bargain with the secondary employer. The model performs well at explaining multiple jobholding inflows and outflows, and it is informative for understanding the secular decline in multiple jobholding. While some worry that this decline heralds a less-flexible labor market, the model reveals that it has contributed to reducing search frictions.
The Effect Of Job Referrals On Labor Market Outcomes In Brazil, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso
The Effect Of Job Referrals On Labor Market Outcomes In Brazil, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper is the first to use program administrative data from Brazil’s National Employment System (SINE) to assess the impact of SINE job interview referrals on labor market outcomes. Data for a five-year period (2012–2016) are used to evaluate the impact of SINE on employment probability, wage rates, time until reemployment, and job tenure. Difference-in-differences estimates suggest that a SINE job interview referral increases the probability of finding a job within three months of the referral and reduces the number of months to find reemployment, the average job tenure of the next job, and the reemployment wage. Subgroup analysis suggests …
Longer-Run Effects Of Antipoverty Policies On Disadvantaged Neighborhoods, David Neumark, Brian J. Asquith, Brittany Bass
Longer-Run Effects Of Antipoverty Policies On Disadvantaged Neighborhoods, David Neumark, Brian J. Asquith, Brittany Bass
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and welfare on key economic indicators of economic self-sufficiency in disadvantaged neighborhoods. We find that the longer-run effects of the EITC are to increase employment and to reduce poverty and public assistance. We also find some evidence that higher welfare benefits had longer-run adverse effects, and quite robust evidence that tighter welfare time limits reduce poverty and public assistance in the longer run. The evidence on the long-run effects of the minimum wage on poverty and public assistance is not robust, with some evidence pointing to reductions …
Local Job Multipliers In The United States: Variation With Local Characteristics And With High-Tech Shocks, Timothy J. Bartik, Nathan Sotherland
Local Job Multipliers In The United States: Variation With Local Characteristics And With High-Tech Shocks, Timothy J. Bartik, Nathan Sotherland
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper provides new estimates of local job multipliers, the ratio of total jobs generated to some initial number of jobs created from a demand shock. Multipliers greatly affect benefits versus costs of local job-creation policies. These new estimates rely on improved methodology and data. The methodology better captures dynamic effects of demand shocks, specifies the model so that demand shocks are more comparable, and is more general in the types of demand shocks that are considered. The data has more industry detail than that used in previous studies. The local job multipliers estimated tend to be about one-quarter lower …
Medical Innovation, Education, And Labor Market Outcomes Of Cancer Patients, Sung-Hee Jeon, R. Vincent Pohl
Medical Innovation, Education, And Labor Market Outcomes Of Cancer Patients, Sung-Hee Jeon, R. Vincent Pohl
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Innovations in cancer treatment have lowered mortality, but little is known about their economic benefits. We assess the effect of two decades of improvements in cancer treatment options on the labor market outcomes of breast and prostate cancer patients. In addition, we compare this effect across cancer patients with different levels of educational attainment. We estimate the effect of medical innovation on cancer patients’ labor market outcomes employing tax return and cancer registry data from Canada and measuring medical innovation by using the number of approved drugs and a quality-adjusted patent index. While cancer patients are less likely to work …
[Job] Locked And [Un]Loaded: The Effect Of The Affordable Care Act Dependency Mandate On Reenlistment In The U.S. Army, Michael S. Kofoed, Wyatt J. Frasier
[Job] Locked And [Un]Loaded: The Effect Of The Affordable Care Act Dependency Mandate On Reenlistment In The U.S. Army, Michael S. Kofoed, Wyatt J. Frasier
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
One concern with employer-based health insurance is job lock or the inability for employees to leave their current employment for better opportunities for fear of losing benefits. We use the implementation of the Affordable Care Act’s dependency mandate as a natural experiment. Data from the United States Army overcome some limitations in previous studies including the ability to examine workers with fixed contract expiration dates, uniform pay, and health coverage. We find that the ACA decreased reenlistment rates by 3.13 percent for enlisted soldiers aged 23–25. We also find that younger veterans who leave the army are more likely to …
Payroll, Revenue, And Labor Demand Effects Of The Minimum Wage, Ekaterina (Roshchina) Jardim, Emma Van Inwegen
Payroll, Revenue, And Labor Demand Effects Of The Minimum Wage, Ekaterina (Roshchina) Jardim, Emma Van Inwegen
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We study the impact of the minimum wage hike in Seattle from $9.47 to $13 on wagebill, labor demand, and firm revenue using administrative data from the state of Washington. We show that the minimum wage affected businesses both at the intensive and extensive margins. At the intensive margin, businesses increased their labor costs and adjusted to the minimum wage by mildly reducing demand for low-wage jobs, but they largely did not pass the increase in labor costs to prices. At the extensive margin, the minimum wage led to higher rates of business exit and shifted the composition of entering …
Do Snap Work Requirements Work?, Timothy F. Harris
Do Snap Work Requirements Work?, Timothy F. Harris
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act waived Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) work requirements nationally in 2010 and broadened the eligibility for receiving waivers in subsequent years for Able-Bodied Adults without Dependents (ABAWD). From 2011 to 2016, many states voluntarily imposed work requirements, while other areas became ineligible for waivers because of improved economic conditions. Did the work requirements increase employment as intended, or did the policy merely remove food assistance for ABAWD who—despite an improving economy—still could not find employment? Using data from the American Community Survey from 2010 to 2016, I analyze the influence of work requirements on …
An Apple A Day? Adult Food Stamp Eligibility And Health Care Utilization Among Immigrants, Chloe N. East, Andrew I. Friedson
An Apple A Day? Adult Food Stamp Eligibility And Health Care Utilization Among Immigrants, Chloe N. East, Andrew I. Friedson
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this study, we document the effect of food stamp access on adult health care utilization. While the Food Stamp Program provides one of the largest safety nets in the United States today, the universal nature of the program across geographic areas and over time limits the potential for quasi-experimental analysis. To circumvent this, we use variation in documented immigrants’ eligibility for food stamps across states and over time due to welfare reform in 1996. Our estimates indicate that access to food stamps reduced physician visits. Additionally, we find that for single women, food stamps increased the affordability of specialty …
Unobserved Heterogeneity And Labor Market Discrimination Against Homosexuals, Miguel Sarzosa
Unobserved Heterogeneity And Labor Market Discrimination Against Homosexuals, Miguel Sarzosa
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Sexual minorities have historically been subject to many kinds of discrimination. Prejudicial treatment in the labor market could arguably be one of them. Despite that, economic literature has remained mostly silent on the topic. This paper fills that void by leveraging on a novel longitudinal data set that collects detailed information on sexual orientation. I develop an empirical strategy that exploits the fact that sexuality is not a dichotomous trait but rather a wide assortment of sexual preferences. I use empirical models that rely on the identification of unobserved heterogeneity, in the forms of skills and sexual orientation, to allow …
Labor Market Effects Of U.S. Sick Pay Mandates, Stefan Pichler, Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Labor Market Effects Of U.S. Sick Pay Mandates, Stefan Pichler, Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper exploits temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of nine-city- and four state-level U.S. sick pay mandates to assess their labor market consequences. We use the synthetic control group method and traditional difference-in-differences models along with the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages to estimate the causal effects of mandated sick pay on employment and wages. We do not find much evidence that employment or wages were significantly affected by the mandates that typically allow employees to earn one hour of paid sick leave per work week, up to seven days per year. Employment decreases of 2 percent …
The Occupational Structures Of Low- And High-Wage Service Sector Establishments, Eliza C. Forsythe
The Occupational Structures Of Low- And High-Wage Service Sector Establishments, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The occupational structure of an establishment provides a description of its production process by detailing the distribution and relative intensity of tasks performed. In this paper, I investigate whether there are substantive differences in the occupational structures of low- and high-wage service sector establishments. I show that low-wage establishments organize production to use less labor in professional occupations compared to high-wage establishments operating in the same local-labor market and industry. In addition, low-wage establishments employ fewer individuals in information technology occupations, employ fewer managers, and have substantially wider supervisory spans of control. These results indicate that, despite operating in the …
Striking A Balance: A National Assessment Of Economic Development Incentives, Mary Donegan, T. William Lester, Nichola Lowe
Striking A Balance: A National Assessment Of Economic Development Incentives, Mary Donegan, T. William Lester, Nichola Lowe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and corporate relocations, and as private firms increasingly demand a deal. While incentives promise jobs and tax revenue, scholars and practitioners criticize their high cost and limited accountability. Through a comparison of matched establishments, this paper explores how governmental incentive-granting strategy impacts incentive performance. We examine the overall impact of incentives and whether incentives granted to smaller firms perform better. Using economic development budget data, we also assess the state’s overall approach to economic development to determine which strategies are prioritized through funding. By showing that …
"But For" Percentages For Economic Development Incentives: What Percentage Estimates Are Plausible Based On The Research Literature?, Timothy J. Bartik
"But For" Percentages For Economic Development Incentives: What Percentage Estimates Are Plausible Based On The Research Literature?, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper reviews the research literature in the United States on effects of state and local “economic development incentives.” Such incentives are tax breaks or grants, provided by state or local governments to individual firms, that are intended to affect firms’ decisions about business location, expansion, or job retention. Incentives’ benefits versus costs depend greatly on what percentage of incented firms would not have made a particular location/expansion/retention decision “but for” the incentive. Based on a review of 34 estimates of “but for” percentages, from 30 different studies, this paper concludes that typical incentives probably tip somewhere between 2 percent …
Understanding The Decline Of U.S. Manufacturing Employment, Susan N. Houseman
Understanding The Decline Of U.S. Manufacturing Employment, Susan N. Houseman
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
U.S. manufacturing experienced a precipitous and historically unprecedented decline in employment in the 2000s. Many economists and other analysts—pointing to decades of statistics showing that manufacturing real (inflation-adjusted) output growth has largely kept pace with private sector real output growth, that productivity growth has been much higher, and that the sector’s share of aggregate employment has been declining—argue that manufacturing’s job losses are largely the result of productivity growth (assumed to reflect automation) and are part of a long-term trend. Since the 1980s, however, the apparently robust growth in manufacturing real output and productivity have been driven by a relatively …
Health Shocks, Human Capital, And Labor Market Outcomes, Francisco Parro, R. Vincent Pohl
Health Shocks, Human Capital, And Labor Market Outcomes, Francisco Parro, R. Vincent Pohl
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Health, human capital, and labor market outcomes are linked though complex connections that are not fully understood. We explore these links by estimating a flexible yet tractable dynamic model of human capital accumulation in the presence of health shocks using administrative data from Chile. We find that (i) human capital mitigates the negative labor market effects of health events, (ii) these alleviating effects operate through channels involving occupational choice, the frequency of exposure to health events, and access to health care, and (iii) the effect of health shocks on labor market outcomes is heterogeneous across industries and types of diagnoses.
Careers Within Firms: Occupational Mobility Over The Life Cycle, Eliza C. Forsythe
Careers Within Firms: Occupational Mobility Over The Life Cycle, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
With falling labor market dynamism in the United States, opportunities within firms take on increasing importance in young workers’ career progression. Developing a variety of occupational ranking metrics, I show that occupational mobility within firms follows a standard life cycle pattern in which the frequency, distance, and wage return from mobility falls with age. However, when upward and downward mobility are considered separately, the average magnitude of directional mobility increases through middle age. I find that wage growth for young workers deteriorated substantially in the first decade of the 2000s, primarily driven by a reduction in wage growth within firms. …
Degrees Of Poverty: The Relationship Between Family Income Background And The Returns To Education, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein
Degrees Of Poverty: The Relationship Between Family Income Background And The Returns To Education, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Drawing on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we document a startling empirical pattern: the career earnings premium from a four-year college degree (relative to a high school diploma) for persons from low-income backgrounds is considerably less than it is for those from higher-income backgrounds. For individuals whose family income in high school was above 1.85 times the poverty level, we estimate that career earnings for bachelor’s graduates are 136 percent higher than earnings for those whose education stopped at high school. However, for individuals whose family income during high school was below 1.85 times the poverty level, the career …
Understanding The Effects Of Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants, Joan Monras, Javier Vázquez-Grenno, Ferran Elias
Understanding The Effects Of Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants, Joan Monras, Javier Vázquez-Grenno, Ferran Elias
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper investigates the consequences of the legalization of around 600,000 immigrants by the unexpectedly elected Spanish government of Zapatero following the terrorist attacks of March 2004 (Garcia-Montalvo, 2011). Using detailed data from payroll-tax revenues, we estimate that each newly legalized immigrant increased local payroll-tax revenues by 4,189 euros on average. This estimate is only 55 percent of what we would have expected from the size of the influx of newly documented immigrants, which suggests that newly legalized immigrants probably earned lower wages than other workers and maybe affected the labor-market outcomes of those other workers. We estimate that the …
Are Teacher Pensions "Hazardous" For Schools?, Patten Priestley Mahler
Are Teacher Pensions "Hazardous" For Schools?, Patten Priestley Mahler
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
I use a detailed panel of data and a unique modeling specification to explore how public schoolteachers respond to the incentives embedded in North Carolina’s retirement system. Like most public-sector retirement plans, North Carolina’s teacher pension implicitly encourages teachers to continue working until they are eligible for their pension benefits, and then leave soon afterward. I find that teachers with higher levels of quality, as measured by a teacher’s value-added to her students’ achievement test scores, are more responsive to the “pull” of teacher pensions. Younger teachers, those with higher salaries, and nonwhite teachers are also more likely to stay …
Evaluating Public Employment Programs With Field Experiments: A Survey Of American Evidence, Christopher J. O'Leary
Evaluating Public Employment Programs With Field Experiments: A Survey Of American Evidence, Christopher J. O'Leary
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Research in the 1970s based on observational data provided evidence consistent with predictions from economic theory that paying unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to involuntarily jobless workers prolongs unemployment. However, some scholars also reported estimates that the additional time spent in subsidized job search was productive. That is, UI receipt tended to raise reemployment wages after work search among the unemployed. A series of field experiments in the 1980s investigated positive incentives to overcome the work disincentive effects of UI. These were followed by experiments in the 1990s that evaluated the effects of restrictions on UI eligibility through stronger work search …
Economic Shocks And Crime: Evidence From The Brazilian Trade Liberalization, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, Gabriel Ulyssea
Economic Shocks And Crime: Evidence From The Brazilian Trade Liberalization, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, Gabriel Ulyssea
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade-induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain …
New Evidence On State Fiscal Multipliers: Implications For State Policies, Timothy J. Bartik
New Evidence On State Fiscal Multipliers: Implications For State Policies, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
When state and local governments engage in balanced budget changes in taxes and spending, what fiscal multiplier effects do such policies have on creating local jobs? Traditionally, the view has been that possible job-creation effects of such state and local “demand-side” policies are smaller, second-order effects. Such effects might be worthwhile to take into consideration when a state or local government balances its budget during a recession, but the effects were believed to be of modest magnitude, and not of major importance for more general state and local public policies. However, recent estimates of fiscal multiplier effects of state and …
Veterans In Workforce Development: Participation And Labor Market Outcomes, Colleen Chrisinger
Veterans In Workforce Development: Participation And Labor Market Outcomes, Colleen Chrisinger
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper compares the employment status and earnings of veterans and nonveterans following their receipt of public workforce development services in Washington State during the years 2002–2012. It also describes workforce program participation patterns for veterans and nonveterans to determine if veterans have equal or prioritized access to key programs, where prioritization is required by law. Based on tabulations and propensity score weighted regressions using administrative data, the results indicate slightly lower levels of participation by veterans than nonveterans in two major workforce programs (Wagner-Peyser and the Workforce Investment Act Adult program), and high participation in veteran-specific programs (Disabled Veterans …
Genes, Education, And Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From The Health And Retirement Study, Nicholas W. Papageorge, Kevin Thom
Genes, Education, And Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From The Health And Retirement Study, Nicholas W. Papageorge, Kevin Thom
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Recent advances have led to the discovery of specific genetic variants that predict educational attainment. We study how these variants, summarized as a genetic score variable, are associated with human capital accumulation and labor market outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We demonstrate that the same genetic score that predicts education is also associated with higher wages, but only among individuals with a college education. Moreover, the genetic gradient in wages has grown in more recent birth cohorts, consistent with interactions between technological change and labor market ability. We also show that individuals who grew up in economically …
Dynamic Responses To Labor Demand Shocks: Evidence From The Financial Industry In Delaware, Russell Weinstein
Dynamic Responses To Labor Demand Shocks: Evidence From The Financial Industry In Delaware, Russell Weinstein
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper analyzes an important shock to local labor demand in the financial services sector: firm relocation to Delaware following a Supreme Court ruling and state legislation in the 1980s. Using synthetic controls and bordering states, I find significant effects on employment growth, the unemployment rate, and participation in the first decade. Employment spillovers to the nontradable sector and migration appear larger than estimates from shocks to the tradable sector. Effects persist for 10 to 20 years after Delaware loses its original policy-induced advantage. The shift towards a low unemployment sector explains this persistence, rather than direct productivity effects or …
The Employment Service-Unemployment Insurance Partnership: Origin, Evolution, And Revitalization, David E. Balducchi, Christopher J. O'Leary
The Employment Service-Unemployment Insurance Partnership: Origin, Evolution, And Revitalization, David E. Balducchi, Christopher J. O'Leary
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This study traces the origin and evolution of the partnership between the employment service and unemployment insurance programs in the United States. We examine objectives of the framers of the Wagner-Peyser and Social Security Acts that established these programs. Using primary sources, we then analyze early actions of the architects of social insurance to facilitate cooperation between the two programs to meet economic exigencies, grapple with political cronyism, and surmount legal barriers. We also discuss factors that caused changes in the employment service–unemployment insurance partnership over time. We identify reasons for the erosion in cooperation starting in the 1980s, and …
Nafta And The Gender Wage Gap, Shushanik Hakobyan, John Mclaren
Nafta And The Gender Wage Gap, Shushanik Hakobyan, John Mclaren
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Using U.S. Census data for 1990–2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on U.S. wages, focusing on differences by gender. We find that NAFTA tariff reductions are associated with substantially reduced wage growth for married blue-collar women, much larger than the effect for other demographic groups. We investigate several possible explanations for this finding. It is not explained by differential sensitivity of female-dominated occupations to trade shocks, or by household bargaining that makes married female workers less able to change their industry of employment than other workers. We find some support for an explanation based on an equilibrium theory of selective …
Wage Shocks And The Technological Substitution Of Low-Wage Jobs, Daniel Aaronson, Brian Phelan
Wage Shocks And The Technological Substitution Of Low-Wage Jobs, Daniel Aaronson, Brian Phelan
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We extend the task-based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that increases in the cost of low-wage labor, via minimum wage hikes, lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manually-routine or non-routine low-wage occupations. This suggests that low-wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution. While the short-run employment consequence of this reshuffling on individual workers is economically small, due to concurrent employment growth in other low-wage jobs, workers previously employed in cognitively routine jobs experience relative wage losses.