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Articles 151 - 180 of 315
Full-Text Articles in Labor Economics
Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing, Grant D. Jacobsen
Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing, Grant D. Jacobsen
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the recent U.S. energy boom. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a more competitive labor market that benefited local workers. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results indicate that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents.
Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn
Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas, and that these differences across MSAs persist through the end of 2015. The increases are prevalent within occupations, more pronounced in the non-traded sector, driven by both within-firm upskilling and substitution from older to newer firms, accompanied by increases in capital stock, and are evident in realized employment. We argue that this evidence reflects the restructuring of production toward more skilled workers and routine-labor saving technologies, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.
Lessons From The American Federal-State Unemployment Insurance System For A European Unemployment Benefits System, Christopher J. O'Leary, Burt S. Barnow, Karolien Lenaerts
Lessons From The American Federal-State Unemployment Insurance System For A European Unemployment Benefits System, Christopher J. O'Leary, Burt S. Barnow, Karolien Lenaerts
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The federal-state system of unemployment insurance (UI) in the United States was established by the Social Security Act of 1935 during the Great Depression. Under the program, states provide temporary partial wage replacement to involuntarily unemployed workers with significant labor force attachment. The federal government induced states to establish UI programs through two means: 1) a uniform federal tax imposed on employer payrolls, with a 90 percent reduction granted in states operating approved UI programs, and 2) grants to states to administer their programs. The system has evolved into a collection of separate state programs adapted to different regional, economic, …
Differential Mortality And The Progressivity Of Social Security, Shantanu Bagchi
Differential Mortality And The Progressivity Of Social Security, Shantanu Bagchi
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
I examine if the positive correlation between wealth and survivorship has any implications for the progressivity of Social Security’s current benefit-earnings rule. Using a general-equilibrium macroeconomic model calibrated to the U.S. economy, I show that the optimal benefit-earnings link for Social Security is largely insensitive to wealth-dependent mortality risk. This is because while a more progressive benefit-earnings rule provides increased insurance for households with relatively unfavorable earnings histories, and therefore lower savings and survivorship, their relatively high mortality risk heavily discounts the utility from old-age consumption. I find that these two effects roughly offset each other, yielding nearly identical optimal …
The Effects Of Increasing The Minimum Wage On Prices: Analyzing The Incidence Of Policy Design And Context, Daniel Macdonald, Eric Nilsson
The Effects Of Increasing The Minimum Wage On Prices: Analyzing The Incidence Of Policy Design And Context, Daniel Macdonald, Eric Nilsson
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We analyze the price pass-through effect of the minimum wage and use the results to provide insight into the competitive structure of low-wage labor markets. Using monthly price series, we find that the pass-through effect is entirely concentrated on the month that the minimum wage change goes into effect, and is much smaller than what the canonical literature has found. We then discuss why our results differ from that literature, noting the impact of series interpolation in generating most of the previous results. We then use the variation in the size of the minimum wage change to evaluate the competitive …
The Labor Market Consequences Of Regulating Similar Occupations: The Licensing Of Occupational And Physical Therapists, Jing Cai, Morris M. Kleiner
The Labor Market Consequences Of Regulating Similar Occupations: The Licensing Of Occupational And Physical Therapists, Jing Cai, Morris M. Kleiner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This study shows the influence of occupational licensing on two occupations that provide similar services: occupational therapists and physical therapists. Most of the tasks for these two occupations differ, but several jobs overlap, and individuals in both occupations could have legal jurisdiction over these tasks. We empirically examine how these two occupations interact with one another in the labor market on wage determination and employment. Unlike previous studies, our study examines two occupations that are female dominated both within the professions and among its leadership. Our results show that occupational licensing can raise the wages of members of both occupations, …
Are There Returns To Experience At Low-Skill Jobs? Evidence From Single Mothers In The United States Over The 1990s, Adam Looney, Dayanand S. Manoli
Are There Returns To Experience At Low-Skill Jobs? Evidence From Single Mothers In The United States Over The 1990s, Adam Looney, Dayanand S. Manoli
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Policy changes in the United States in the 1990s resulted in sizable increases in employment rates of single mothers. We show that this increase led to a large and abrupt increase in work experience for single mothers with young children. We then examine the economic return to this increase in experience for affected single mothers. Despite the increases in experience, single mothers’ real wages and employment have remained relatively unchanged. The empirical analysis suggests that an additional year of experience increases single mothers’ wage rates by less than 2 percent, a percentage lower than previous estimates in the literature.
Are State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Sufficient For The Next Recession?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline
Are State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Sufficient For The Next Recession?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Regular state unemployment insurance (UI) benefits are paid from state reserves held in unemployment trust fund accounts at the U.S. Treasury. Employers covered by the federal-state UI system make contributions to reserve accounts based on taxable wages. The federal government provides incentives for forward funding of benefits to support UI as an automatic macroeconomic stabilizer in the economy. However, the Great Recession exhausted UI reserves for the majority of states, and not all of them have yet replenished those reserves. Based on patterns observed over the past 40 years, in this paper we simulate the effects on state and systemwide …
Domestic Outsourcing In The United States: A Research Agenda To Assess Trends And Effects On Job Quality, Annette Bernhardt, Rosemary L. Batt, Susan N. Houseman, Eileen Appelbaum
Domestic Outsourcing In The United States: A Research Agenda To Assess Trends And Effects On Job Quality, Annette Bernhardt, Rosemary L. Batt, Susan N. Houseman, Eileen Appelbaum
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The goal of this paper is to develop a comprehensive research agenda to analyze trends in domestic outsourcing in the United States—firms’ use of contractors and independent contractors—and its effects on job quality and inequality. In the process, we review definitions of outsourcing, the available scant empirical research, and limitations of existing data sources. We also summarize theories that attempt to explain why firms contract out for certain functions and assess their predictions about likely impacts on job quality. We then lay out in detail a major research initiative on domestic outsourcing, discussing the questions it should answer and providing …
Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner
Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Wage insurance is a program that attempts to help permanently displaced workers transition to employment rapidly, effectively, and equitably. Because displaced workers have been found to suffer substantial earnings losses when they become reemployed, a wage insurance program provides a temporary wage supplement that partially reduces the wage loss experienced by targeted, newly reemployed workers. While participating workers receive a “wage supplement,” the program is called “wage insurance” because of its design as a social insurance program rather than an income transfer program. This paper provides a discussion of the development of wage insurance as a policy option in the …
The Impact Of Nurse Turnover On Quality Of Care And Mortality In Nursing Homes: Evidence From The Great Recession, Yaa Akosa Antwi, John R. Bowblis
The Impact Of Nurse Turnover On Quality Of Care And Mortality In Nursing Homes: Evidence From The Great Recession, Yaa Akosa Antwi, John R. Bowblis
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We estimate the causal effect of nurse turnover on mortality and the quality of nursing home care with a fixed effect instrumental variable estimation that uses the unemployment rate as an instrument for nursing turnover. We find that ignoring endogeneity leads to a systematic underestimation of the effect of nursing turnover on mortality and quality of care in a sample of California nursing homes. Specifically, 10 percentage point increase in nurse turnover results in a facility receiving 2.2 additional deficiencies per annual regulatory survey, reflecting a 19.3 percent increase. Not accounting for endogeneity of turnover leads to results that suggest …
Mothers' Long-Term Employment Patterns, Alexandra Killewald, Xiaolin Zhuo
Mothers' Long-Term Employment Patterns, Alexandra Killewald, Xiaolin Zhuo
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Previous research on maternal employment has disproportionately focused on married, college-educated mothers and examined either current employment status or postpartum return to employment. Following the life course perspective, we instead conceptualize maternal careers as long-term life course patterns. Using data from the NLSY79 and optimal matching, we document four common employment patterns of American mothers over the first 18 years of maternity. About two-thirds follow steady patterns, either full-time employment (38 percent) or steady nonemployment (24 percent). The rest experience “mixed” patterns: long-term part-time employment (20 percent), or a multiyear period of nonemployment following maternity, then a return to employment …
Testing The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theory With A Natural Experiment, Assaf Zimring
Testing The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theory With A Natural Experiment, Assaf Zimring
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper uses the historical episode of the near-elimination of commuting from the West Bank into Israel, which caused a large and rapid expansion of the local labor force in the West Bank, to test the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) mode of trade. I use variation between districts in the West Bank to test these predictions, and find strong support for them: Wage changes were not correlated with the size of the shock to the district labor force (Factor Price Insensitivity); Districts that received larger influx of returning commuters shifted production more towards labor intensive industries (Rybczynski effect); And …
Estimating Hispanic-White Wage Gaps Among Women: The Importance Of Controlling For Cost Of Living, Peter Mchenry, Melissa Mcinerney
Estimating Hispanic-White Wage Gaps Among Women: The Importance Of Controlling For Cost Of Living, Peter Mchenry, Melissa Mcinerney
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Despite concern regarding labor market discrimination against Hispanics, previously published estimates show that Hispanic women earn higher hourly wages than white women with similar observable characteristics. This estimated wage premium is likely biased upwards because of the omission of an important control variable: cost of living. We show that Hispanic women live in locations (e.g., cities) with higher costs of living than whites. After we account for cost of living, the estimated Hispanic-white wage differential for non-immigrant women falls by approximately two-thirds. As a result, we find no statistically significant difference in wages between Hispanic and white women in the …
Using Linked Survey And Administrative Data To Better Measure Income: Implications For Poverty, Program Effectiveness And Holes In The Safety Net, Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag
Using Linked Survey And Administrative Data To Better Measure Income: Implications For Poverty, Program Effectiveness And Holes In The Safety Net, Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We examine the consequences of underreporting of transfer programs in household survey data for several prototypical analyses of low-income populations. We focus on the Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of official poverty and inequality statistics, but provide evidence that our qualitative conclusions are likely to apply to other surveys. We link administrative data for food stamps, TANF, General Assistance, and subsidized housing from New York State to the CPS at the individual level. Program receipt in the CPS is missed for over one-third of housing assistance recipients, 40 percent of food stamp recipients, and 60 percent of TANF and …
Optimal Social Assistance And Unemployment Insurance In A Life-Cycle Model Of Family Labor Supply And Savings, Peter Haan, Victoria Prowse
Optimal Social Assistance And Unemployment Insurance In A Life-Cycle Model Of Family Labor Supply And Savings, Peter Haan, Victoria Prowse
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We analyze empirically the optimal design of social insurance and assistance programs when families obtain insurance by making labor supply choices for both spouses. For this purpose, we specify a structural life-cycle model of the labor supply and savings decisions of singles and married couples. Partial insurance against wage and employment shocks is provided by social programs, savings, and the labor supplies of all adult household members. The optimal policy mix focuses mainly on Social Assistance, which provides a permanent universal household income floor, with a minor role for temporary earnings-related Unemployment Insurance. Reflecting that married couples obtain intra-household insurance …
The Pros And Cons Of Sick Pay Schemes: Testing For Contagious Presenteeism And Shirking Behavior, Stefan Pichler, Nicolas R. Ziebarth
The Pros And Cons Of Sick Pay Schemes: Testing For Contagious Presenteeism And Shirking Behavior, Stefan Pichler, Nicolas R. Ziebarth
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper proposes a test for the existence and degree of contagious presenteeism and negative externalities in sickness insurance schemes. First, we theoretically decompose moral hazard into shirking and contagious presenteeism behavior and derive testable conditions. Then, we implement the test exploiting German sick pay reforms and administrative industry-level data on certified sick leave by diagnoses. The labor supply adjustment for contagious diseases is significantly smaller than for noncontagious diseases. Lastly, using Google Flu data and the staggered implementation of U.S. sick leave reforms, we show that flu rates decrease after employees gain access to paid sick leave.
Jobless Capital? The Role Of Capital Subsidies, Carlianne E. Patrick
Jobless Capital? The Role Of Capital Subsidies, Carlianne E. Patrick
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Using tax abatements, financial incentives, and public investments to attract (or retain) firms is the primary economic development tool for many local governments. Often local job creation policies focus on increasing capital through grants, low-interest financing, and other economic development incentives. Theory predicts that capital subsidies induce firm behaviors that limit their job creation effects. This paper employs the Incentives Environment Index, constructed from state constitutional provisions that limit and structure the ability of state and local governmental entities to aid private enterprises, and five-year county panels to test theoretical predictions on county capital expenditure and input mixes as well …
Should Ui Eligibility Be Expanded To Low-Earning Workers? Evidence On Employment, Transfer Receipt, And Income From Administrative Data, Pauline Leung, Christopher J. O'Leary
Should Ui Eligibility Be Expanded To Low-Earning Workers? Evidence On Employment, Transfer Receipt, And Income From Administrative Data, Pauline Leung, Christopher J. O'Leary
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Recent efforts to expand unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility are expected to increase low-earning workers’ access to UI. Although the expansion’s aim is to smooth the income and consumption of previously ineligible workers, it is possible that UI benefits simply displace other sources of income. Standard economic models predict that UI delays reemployment, thereby reducing wage income. Additionally, low-earning workers are often eligible for benefits from means-tested programs, which may decrease with UI benefits. In this paper, we estimate the impact of UI eligibility on employment, means-tested program participation, and income after job loss using a unique individual-level administrative data set …
Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary
Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this paper I examine the rates at which adults in households recently receiving Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) become jobless, apply for and receive unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, and participate in publicly funded employment services. I also investigate the correlation of UI and employment services receipt with maintenance of self-sufficiency through return to work and independence from TANF. The analysis is based on person-level administrative program records from four of the nine largest states between 1997 and 2003. Evidence suggests that three-quarters of new TANF leavers experience joblessness within three years, and one-quarter of the newly jobless apply …
Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Dynamics, Jonathan Meer, Jeremy West
Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Dynamics, Jonathan Meer, Jeremy West
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The voluminous literature on minimum wages offers little consensus on the extent to which a wage floor impacts employment. We argue that the minimum wage will impact employment over time, through changes in growth rather than an immediate drop in relative employment levels. We conduct simulations showing that commonly-used specifications in this literature, especially those that include state-specific time trends, will not accurately capture these effects. Using three separate state panels of administrative employment data, we find that the minimum wage reduces job growth over a period of several years. These effects are most pronounced for younger workers and in …
The Effect Of Health Insurance On Workers' Compensation Filing: Evidence From The Affordable Care Act's Age-Based Threshold For Dependent Coverage, Marcus Dillender
The Effect Of Health Insurance On Workers' Compensation Filing: Evidence From The Affordable Care Act's Age-Based Threshold For Dependent Coverage, Marcus Dillender
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper identifies the effect of health insurance on workers' compensation (WC) filing for young adults by implementing a regression discontinuity design using WC medical claims data from Texas. The results suggest health insurance factors into the decision to have WC pay for discretionary care. The implied instrumental variables estimates suggest a 10 percentage point decrease in health insurance coverage increases WC bills by 15.3 percent. Despite the large impact of health insurance on the number of WC bills, the additional cost to WC at age 26 appears to be small as most of the increase comes from small bills.
The Effect Of The Earned Income Tax Credit In The District Of Columbia On Poverty And Income Dynamics, Bradley L. Hardy, Daniel Muhammad, Rhucha Samudra
The Effect Of The Earned Income Tax Credit In The District Of Columbia On Poverty And Income Dynamics, Bradley L. Hardy, Daniel Muhammad, Rhucha Samudra
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Using unique longitudinal administrative tax panel data for the District of Columbia (DC), we assess the combined effect of the DC supplemental earned income tax credit (EITC) and the federal EITC on poverty and income dynamics within Washington, DC, from 2001 to 2011. The EITC in DC merits investigation, as the DC supplement to the federal credit is the largest in the nation. The supplemental DC EITC was enacted in 2000, and has been expanded from 10 percent of the federal credit in 2001 to 40 percent as of 2009. To implement the study, we estimate least squares models with …
Temporary Help Employment In Recession And Recovery, Susan N. Houseman, Carolyn J. Heinrich
Temporary Help Employment In Recession And Recovery, Susan N. Houseman, Carolyn J. Heinrich
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The temporary help industry, although small, plays a significant role in the macro economy, reflecting employers’ growing reliance on temporary help agencies to provide flexibility in meeting staffing needs. Drawing on detailed temporary-help order data between 2007 and 2011 from a large, nationally representative staffing company, we provide insights into the characteristics of temporary help work, employers’ use of temporary agencies to screen workers for permanent positions, and the industry’s role in labor market adjustment over the business cycle. We estimate that the temporary help industry accounted for a large share of gross job losses and job gains over this …
Military Retention Incentives: Evidence From The Air Force Selective Reenlistment Bonus, Justin Joffrion, Nathan Wozny
Military Retention Incentives: Evidence From The Air Force Selective Reenlistment Bonus, Justin Joffrion, Nathan Wozny
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The limited lateral entry and rigid pay structure for U.S. military personnel present challenges in retaining skilled individuals who have attractive options in the civilian labor market. One tool the services use to address this challenge is the Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB), which offers eligible personnel with particular skills a substantial cash bonus upon reenlistment. However, the sequential nature of the bonus offer and reenlistment process limits the ability to adjust manpower quickly, raising interest in research that estimates the effect of the SRB on retention. While this literature has acknowledged challenges including potential endogeneity of bonus levels, attrition, and …
Trade Reform And Regional Dynamics: Evidence From 25 Years Of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Brian K. Kovak
Trade Reform And Regional Dynamics: Evidence From 25 Years Of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Brian K. Kovak
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We empirically study the dynamics of labor market adjustment following the Brazilian trade reform of the 1990s. We use variation in industry-specific tariff cuts interacted with initial regional industry mix to measure trade-induced local labor demand shocks, and then examine regional and individual labor market responses to those one-time shocks over two decades. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we do not find that the impact of local shocks is dissipated over time through wage-equalizing migration. Instead, we find steadily growing effects of local shocks on regional formal sector wages and employment for 20 years. This finding can be rationalized in a …
The Impact Of Affirmative Action On The Employment Of Minorities And Women Over Three Decades: 1973-2003, Fidan Ana Kurtulus
The Impact Of Affirmative Action On The Employment Of Minorities And Women Over Three Decades: 1973-2003, Fidan Ana Kurtulus
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
What role has affirmative action played in the growth of minority and female employment in U.S. firms? This paper analyzes this issue by comparing the employment of minorities and women at firms holding federal contracts and therefore mandated to implement affirmative action, and at noncontracting firms, over the course of three decades spanning 1973–2003. It constitutes the first study to comprehensively document the long-term impact of affirmative action in federal contracting on the U.S. employment landscape. The study uses a new panel data set of over 100,000 large private-sector firms across all industries and regions, obtained from the U.S. Equal …
Inference On Causal Effects In A Generalized Regression Kink Design, David Card, David S. Lee, Zhuan Pei, Andrea Weber
Inference On Causal Effects In A Generalized Regression Kink Design, David Card, David S. Lee, Zhuan Pei, Andrea Weber
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We consider nonparametric identification and estimation in a nonseparable model where a continuous regressor of interest is a known, deterministic, but kinked function of an observed assignment variable. This design arises in many institutional settings where a policy variable (such as weekly unemployment benefits) is determined by an observed but potentially endogenous assignment variable (like previous earnings). We provide new results on identification and estimation for these settings, and apply our results to obtain estimates of the elasticity of joblessness with respect to UI benefit rates. We characterize a broad class of models in which a sharp “Regression Kink Design” …
The Job Search Intensity Supply Curve: How Labor Market Conditions Affect Job Search Effort, Jeremy Schwartz
The Job Search Intensity Supply Curve: How Labor Market Conditions Affect Job Search Effort, Jeremy Schwartz
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
During the Great Recession of 2007, unemployment reached nearly 10 percent and the ratio of unemployment to open positions (as measured by the Help Wanted OnLine Index) more than tripled. The weak labor market prompted an unprecedented extension in the length of time in which a claimant can collect unemployment insurance (UI) to 99 weeks, at an expense to date of $226.4 billion. While many claim that extending UI during a recession will reduce search intensity, the effect of weak labor market conditions on search remains a mystery. As a result, policymakers are in the dark as to whether UI …
Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, And Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, And Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the Barro and Grossman (1971) general disequilibrium model but replaces the disequilibrium framework on the labor and product markets by a matching framework. On the product and labor markets, both price and tightness adjust to equalize supply and demand. There is one more variable than equilibrium condition on each market, so we consider various price mechanisms to close the model, from completely flexible to completely rigid. With some price rigidity, aggregate demand influences unemployment through a simple mechanism: higher aggregate demand raises the probability that firms …