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Articles 91 - 120 of 315
Full-Text Articles in Labor Economics
Long-Run Effects On Employment Rates Of Local Demand Shocks, Across And Within Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik
Long-Run Effects On Employment Rates Of Local Demand Shocks, Across And Within Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper estimates the long-run effects on a county’s prime-age employment rate of labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). These effects are allowed to vary with local “distress” (baseline employment rate of the county or CZ), and with the size of the demand shock. In more distressed CZs, a county’s employment rate is more affected by county or CZ shocks. As a result, targeting or reallocating jobs to more distressed CZs will tend to raise employment rates. If a county is relatively distressed compared to its CZ, targeting job shocks at that county …
Measuring Local Job Distress, Timothy J. Bartik
Measuring Local Job Distress, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this paper, estimates are presented on short-run effects of demand shocks on a local labor market’s employment to population ratio (employment rate). Based on the estimates, commuting zones (CZs) better define a local labor market than counties, because both employment and employment rate effects exhibit large spillovers across counties within a CZ. In addition, the estimates suggest that demand shock effects vary, by an amount that is both statistically and substantively significant, with a CZ’s prior overall employment rate.
Firms, Jobs, And Gender Disparities In Top Incomes: Evidence From Brazil, Felipe Benguria
Firms, Jobs, And Gender Disparities In Top Incomes: Evidence From Brazil, Felipe Benguria
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies the gender disparities among top incomes in Brazil during the period 1994-2013 using administrative data on the universe of formal-sector job spells and detailed information on educational attainment, employers, and occupations performed. Over these two decades, differences in pay and participation between genders have narrowed, yet the process has been slow and women are still severely underrepresented, especially within the very top percentiles of the earnings distribution. The following findings highlight the role of firms and occupations in explaining these patterns. At the start of the period, women in the top percentile of the distribution owe a …
Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price
Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age U.S. workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses during the off-season. Lost earnings are 1) driven mainly by repeated separations …
Nudges To Increase Completion Of Welfare Applications: Experimental Evidence From Michigan, Christopher J. O'Leary, Dallas Oberlee, Gabrielle Pepin
Nudges To Increase Completion Of Welfare Applications: Experimental Evidence From Michigan, Christopher J. O'Leary, Dallas Oberlee, Gabrielle Pepin
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program provides cash assistance to very-low-income families with children. Application procedures to receive TANF benefits, however, often involve substantial transaction costs likely to reduce take-up. We estimate, through a randomized controlled trial design, the effects of a detailed telephone-call reminder to increase TANF application completion in southwest Michigan, where applicants must visit a regional public employment office at least four times to be eligible for benefits. We do not find that personalizing reminder calls increased participation in the initial appointment at the public employment office. However, conditional on attending the initial session, applicants …
Biased Beliefs And Entry Into Scientific Careers, Ina Ganguli, Patrick Gaulé, Danijela Vuletić Čugalj
Biased Beliefs And Entry Into Scientific Careers, Ina Ganguli, Patrick Gaulé, Danijela Vuletić Čugalj
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We investigate whether excessively optimistic beliefs play a role in the persistent demand for doctoral and postdoctoral training in science. We elicit the beliefs and career preferences of doctoral students through a novel survey and randomize the provision of structured information on the true state of the academic market and information through role models on nonacademic careers. One year later, both treatments lead students to update their beliefs about the academic market and impact career preferences. However, we do not find an effect on actual career outcomes two years postintervention.
The Earned Income Tax Credit And Maternal Time Use: More Time Working And Less Time With Kids?, Jacob Bastian, Lance J. Lochner
The Earned Income Tax Credit And Maternal Time Use: More Time Working And Less Time With Kids?, Jacob Bastian, Lance J. Lochner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Parents spend considerable sums investing in their children’s development, with their own time among the most important forms of investment. Given well-documented effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on maternal labor supply, it is natural to ask how the EITC affects other time allocation decisions, especially time with children. We use the American Time Use Surveys to study the effects of EITC expansions since 2003 on time devoted to a broad array of activities, with considerable attention to the amount and nature of time spent with children. Our results confirm prior evidence that the EITC increases maternal work …
Impacts Of The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Cares Act On Earnings And Inequality, Guido Matias Cortes, Eliza C. Forsythe
Impacts Of The Covid-19 Pandemic And The Cares Act On Earnings And Inequality, Guido Matias Cortes, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we show that the Covid-19 pandemic led to a loss of aggregate real labor earnings of more than $250 billion between March and July 2020. By exploiting the panel structure of the CPS, we show that the decline in aggregate earnings was entirely driven by declines in employment; individuals who remained employed did not experience any atypical earnings changes. We find that job losses were substantially larger among workers in low-paying jobs. This led to a dramatic increase in inequality in labor earnings during the pandemic. Simulating standard unemployment benefits and Unemployment …
The Long-Term Labor Market Effects Of Parental Unemployment, Bernhard Schmidpeter
The Long-Term Labor Market Effects Of Parental Unemployment, Bernhard Schmidpeter
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
I investigate the impact of parental unemployment on children’s educational attainment and long-run labor market outcomes in Austria. I find that parental unemployment shortly before an important educational decision by parents for their children lowers a child’s probability of holding a university degree by more than 5 percentage points. I do not find that income is affected at the beginning of a child’s labor market career along the distribution, but I find a gradual deterioration later on. A substantial share of these long-term losses can be explained by the lower parental investment decision. My results emphasize the intergenerational and long-lasting …
The Effects Of Child Care Subsidies On Paid Child Care Participation And Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From The Child And Dependent Care Credit, Gabrielle Pepin
The Effects Of Child Care Subsidies On Paid Child Care Participation And Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From The Child And Dependent Care Credit, Gabrielle Pepin
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC), a tax credit based on taxpayers’ income and child care expenses, reduces families’ child care costs. The nonrefundable federal CDCC is available to working families with children younger than 13 years old in all states, and nearly half of states supplement the federal credit with their own child care credits. The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act expanded the federal CDCC in 2003, which led to differential increases in CDCC generosity across states and family sizes. I document CDCC eligibility and expenditures over time and across income and demographic groups. Using data …
Warding Off Development: Local Control, Housing Supply, And Nimbys, Evan Mast
Warding Off Development: Local Control, Housing Supply, And Nimbys, Evan Mast
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Local control of land-use regulation creates a not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) problem that can suppress housing construction, contributing to rising prices and potentially slowing economic growth. I study how increased local control affects housing production by exploiting a common electoral reform—changing from “at-large” to “ward” elections for town council. These reforms, which are not typically motivated by housing markets, shrink each representative’s constituency from the entire town to one ward. Difference-in-differences estimates show that this decentralization decreases housing units permitted by 24 percent, with 47 percent and 12 percent effects on multi- and single-family units. The effect on multifamily is larger in …
The Effects Of Welfare Time Limits On Access To Financial Resources: Evidence From The 2010s, Gabrielle Pepin
The Effects Of Welfare Time Limits On Access To Financial Resources: Evidence From The 2010s, Gabrielle Pepin
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 established the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program within the United States. TANF mandated 60-month lifetime time limits for federal cash assistance dollars. Because states reserve the right to set their own stricter or more generous time limits, the 60-month lifetime limit did not bind in all cases. In recent years, however, several states imposed TANF time limits for the first time or made existing time limits more stringent. Using administrative and survey data, I find that stricter time limits decrease annual TANF participation by 22 percent and annual …
Job Search And Hiring With Two-Sided Limited Information About Workseekers’ Skills, Eliana Carranza, Robert Garlick, Kate Orkin, Neil Rankin
Job Search And Hiring With Two-Sided Limited Information About Workseekers’ Skills, Eliana Carranza, Robert Garlick, Kate Orkin, Neil Rankin
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We present field experimental evidence that limited information about workseekers’ skills distorts both firm and workseeker behavior. Assessing workseekers’ skills, giving workseekers their assessment results, and helping them to credibly share the results with firms increases workseekers’ employment and earnings. It also aligns their beliefs and search strategies more closely with their skills. Giving assessment results only to workseekers has similar effects on beliefs and search, but smaller effects on employment and earnings. Giving assessment results only to firms increases callbacks. These patterns are consistent with two-sided information frictions, a new finding that can inform design of information-provision mechanisms.
The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts Of The Covid-19 Pandemic, Guido Matias Cortes, Eliza C. Forsythe
The Heterogeneous Labor Market Impacts Of The Covid-19 Pandemic, Guido Matias Cortes, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We study the distributional consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic’s impacts on employment. Using CPS data on stocks and flows, we show that the pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing inequalities. Although employment losses have been widespread, they have been substantially larger in lower-paying occupations and industries. Individuals from disadvantaged groups, such as Hispanics, younger workers, those with lower levels of education, and women, have suffered both larger increases in job losses and larger decreases in hiring rates. Occupational and industry affiliation can explain only part of the increased job losses among these groups.
Do Stronger Employment Discrimination Protections Decrease Reliance On Social Security Disability Insurance? Evidence From The U.S. Social Security Reforms, Patrick Button, Mashfiqur R. Khan
Do Stronger Employment Discrimination Protections Decrease Reliance On Social Security Disability Insurance? Evidence From The U.S. Social Security Reforms, Patrick Button, Mashfiqur R. Khan
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The United States Social Security Amendments of 1983 (SSA1983) increased the full retirement age (FRA) and increased penalties for retiring before the FRA. This cut to retirement benefits caused spillover effects on Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) applications and receipt by making SSDI relatively more generous. We explore if stronger disability and age discrimination laws moderated these spillovers, using variation whereby many state laws are broader or stronger than federal law. We estimate the effects of these laws on SSDI applications and receipt using a difference-in-differences approach, comparing cohorts affected by SSA1983 to similarly aged unaffected cohorts, across states. We …
The Evolution Of Local Labor Markets After Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
The Evolution Of Local Labor Markets After Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio, earnings per capita, and earnings per worker. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space.
Using Nonexperimental Methods To Address Noncompliance, Daniel Litwok
Using Nonexperimental Methods To Address Noncompliance, Daniel Litwok
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The analysis compares estimates of the incremental impact for those who receive HPOG with a program enhancement to the standard HPOG program. The experimental benchmark for the incremental impact comes from two-stage least squares with random assignment as an instrumental variable for enhancement take-up. Then, ignoring the randomly assigned conditions, the analysis estimates the counterfactual for those who “take up” the enhancement using ordinary least squares and inverse propensity weighting. The analysis also tests whether adding information that is only available due to the experiment—who complied with their randomization status and who did not—improves the nonexperimental estimates. The analysis compares …
State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Are Not Adequate, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline
State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Are Not Adequate, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Regular unemployment insurance (UI) benefits are paid from reserves held in state accounts at the U.S. Treasury. The Great Recession exhausted the majority of UI reserve accounts, and not all states have rebuilt reserves. We examine the adequacy of current state and systemwide UI reserves to weather a mild, moderate, or severe recession in the coming months. Our results suggest that a recession as severe as the average of those occurring since 1975 would cause 18 states to exhaust UI reserves. Our simulations account for the fact that several states have cut benefit generosity since the Great Recession ended. Results …
Contract Work At Older Ages, Katharine G. Abraham, Brad J. Hershbein, Susan N. Houseman
Contract Work At Older Ages, Katharine G. Abraham, Brad J. Hershbein, Susan N. Houseman
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The share of workers who are self-employed rises markedly with age. Given policy concerns about inadequate retirement savings, especially among those with lower education, and the resulting interest in encouraging employment at older ages, it is important to understand the role that self-employment arrangements play in facilitating work among seniors. New data from a survey module fielded on a Gallup telephone survey distinguish independent contractor work from other self-employment and provide information on informal and online platform work. The Gallup data show that, especially after accounting for individuals who are miscoded as employees, self-employment is even more prevalent at older …
Heterogeneous Impacts On Layoffs Of Changes In Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Eligibility Rules, Túlio Cravo, Christopher J. O'Leary, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso
Heterogeneous Impacts On Layoffs Of Changes In Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Eligibility Rules, Túlio Cravo, Christopher J. O'Leary, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper is based on the first use of program administrative data from Brazil’s unemployment insurance (UI) program to assess the impact of changes in UI eligibility criteria on layoff probabilities. We exploit exogenous program changes introduced by executive and legislative changes in 2015 to estimate impacts while accounting for the number of prior UI benefit requests. We estimate that changes in UI eligibility criteria had heterogeneous impacts distinguished by the number of prior benefit requests. We show that the 2015 changes in UI eligibility rules reduced layoffs and find evidence that the changes reduced collusion between workers and employers …
The Long-Term Effects Of Labor Market Entry In A Recession: Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis, Eleanor Jawon Choi, Jaewoo Choi, Hyelim Son
The Long-Term Effects Of Labor Market Entry In A Recession: Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis, Eleanor Jawon Choi, Jaewoo Choi, Hyelim Son
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during a recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing. Our results suggest that labor …
College Attainment, Income Inequality, And Economic Security: A Simulation Exercise, Brad J. Hershbein, Melissa S. Kearney, Luke W. Pardue
College Attainment, Income Inequality, And Economic Security: A Simulation Exercise, Brad J. Hershbein, Melissa S. Kearney, Luke W. Pardue
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We conduct an empirical simulation exercise that gauges the plausible impact of increased rates of college attainment on a variety of measures of income inequality and economic insecurity. Using two different methodological approaches—a distributional approach and a causal parameter approach—we find that increased rates of bachelor’s and associate degree attainment would meaningfully increase economic security for lower-income individuals, reduce poverty and near-poverty, and shrink gaps between the 90th and lower percentiles of the earnings distribution. However, increases in college attainment would not significantly reduce inequality at the very top of the distribution.
An Illustrated Case For Unemployment Insurance Reform, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner
An Illustrated Case For Unemployment Insurance Reform, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We present a graphic case for unemployment insurance (UI) program reform. Through a series of illustrations summarizing historical trends, we show how the UI system has diverged from its intended purposes. Our figures show the decline of the program in addressing its essential aims of paying adequate unemployment compensation during involuntary unemployment and providing reemployment services. We illustrate the big differences in UI programs that have emerged because of the broad discretion afforded states to determine benefit generosity. We also illustrate declines in the financial means for providing benefits and reemployment services and a widening divergence among states in the …
Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects Of New Housing In Low-Income Areas, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast, Davin Reed
Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects Of New Housing In Low-Income Areas, Brian J. Asquith, Evan Mast, Davin Reed
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease nearby rents by 5 to 7 percent relative to locations slightly farther away or developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas. Results are driven by a large supply effect—we show that new buildings absorb many high-income households—that overwhelms any offsetting endogenous amenity effect. The latter may be small because most new buildings go into already-changing areas. Contrary to common concerns, new buildings slow local rent increases rather than initiate or accelerate them.
Four Decades Of Declining Federal Leadership In The Federal-State Unemployment Insurance Program, Stephen A. Wandner
Four Decades Of Declining Federal Leadership In The Federal-State Unemployment Insurance Program, Stephen A. Wandner
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The unemployment insurance (UI) program was established in 1935. Unlike other social insurance programs created by the Social Security Act, it was established as a federal-state program. The federal government initially acted as a strong partner working with state agencies that operate the UI program. Over the past four decades, however, the federal role in the UI program has declined because of reductions in federal resources dedicated to the program and weakening policy leadership and programmatic support. As a result, states operate increasingly divergent UI programs, with many programs providing limited access to the program for experienced unemployed workers who …
Immigrants And The U.S. Wage Distribution, Vasil I. Yasenov
Immigrants And The U.S. Wage Distribution, Vasil I. Yasenov
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
A large body of literature estimates the relative wage impacts of immigration on low- and high-skill natives, but it is unclear how these effects map onto changes of the wage distribution. I document the movement of foreign-born workers in the U.S. wage distribution, showing that, since 1980, they have become increasingly overrepresented in the bottom. Downgrading of education and experience obtained abroad partially drives this pattern. I then undertake two empirical approaches to deepen our understanding of the way foreign-born workers shape the wage structure. First, I estimate a standard theoretical model featuring constant elasticity of substitution technology and skill …
Does The Healthcare Educational Market Respond To Short-Run Local Demand?, Marcus Dillender, Andrew Friedson, Cong Gian, Kosali Simon
Does The Healthcare Educational Market Respond To Short-Run Local Demand?, Marcus Dillender, Andrew Friedson, Cong Gian, Kosali Simon
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) increased demand for healthcare across the U.S., but it is unclear if or how the supply side has responded to meet this demand. In this paper, we take advantage of plausibly exogenous geographical heterogeneity in the ACA in order to examine the response of the healthcare education sector to increased demand for healthcare services. We look across educational fields, types of degrees, and types of institutions; we pay particular attention to settings where our conceptual model predicts heightened responses. We find no statistically significant evidence of increases in graduates and can rule …
Should Place-Based Jobs Policies Be Used To Help Distressed Communities?, Timothy J. Bartik
Should Place-Based Jobs Policies Be Used To Help Distressed Communities?, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Should policymakers seek to increase jobs in particular local labor markets? Yes, but only if these policies are well targeted and designed. Encouraging job growth in distressed places can cause persistent gains in employment-to-population ratios. But our current place-based jobs policies, under which state and local governments provide long-term tax incentives to megacorporations, are poorly targeted and designed. Such incentives are as large in nondistressed areas as in distressed areas, and they are excessively costly. What reforms are needed? First, job growth policies should target distressed areas. Second, tax incentives should be focused on high-multiplier businesses, such as high-tech firms. …
Computerization Of White Collar Jobs, Marcus Dillender, Eliza C. Forsythe
Computerization Of White Collar Jobs, Marcus Dillender, Eliza C. Forsythe
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
We investigate the impact of computerization of white-collar jobs on wages and employment. Using online job postings from 2007 and 2010-2016 for office and administrative support (OAS) jobs, we show that when firms adopt new software at the job-title level they increase the skills required of job applicants. Furthermore, firms change the task content of such jobs, broadening them to include tasks associated with higher-skill office functions. We aggregate these patterns to the local labor-market level, instrumenting for technology adoption with national measures. We find that a 1 standard deviation increase in OAS technology usages reduces employment in OAS occupations …
Do Rent Increases Reduce The Housing Supply Under Rent Control? Evidence From Evictions In San Francisco, Brian Asquith
Do Rent Increases Reduce The Housing Supply Under Rent Control? Evidence From Evictions In San Francisco, Brian Asquith
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Rent control balances strong tenant protections with supply-side incentives for landlords. However, cities with rent control are also some of the United States' most unaffordable, prompting questions about how well these incentives are working. I examine how controlled landlords change their housing supply in response to price increases using a well-identified hyperlocal demand shock the privately operated commuter shuttle systems in San Francisco. Controlled landlords increased market withdrawal filings and became less likely to create vacancies via evictions in response to a shuttle stop placement. Policies raising barriers to market withdrawals prompted controlled landlords to respond my increasing their at-fault …