Growth and Development Commons^™

Built By Hand, Run By Machine: Robots And The Uneven Displacement Of Native And Migrant Workers In Germany (2012-2024), Farida Mohamed Elkhosht

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates whether industrial robot adoption generates differential employment effects for native and migrant workers across German local labor markets, using district-level data for 393 districts over 2012–2024. This question matters because Germany combines one of the world's highest concentrations of industrial robots with one of the largest migrant workforces in the OECD. Despite growing policy interest in the distributional effects of technological change, limited evidence exists on whether automation affects native and migrant employment differently within the same local labor markets. Using Bartik shift-share design to measure exogenous variation in robot exposure, the study finds that the effect …

Policy Coherence And Private Sector Development In Egypt: Aligning Governance Reforms With Development Finance, Shereef El Tanahi

Theses and Dissertations

Despite record volumes of development finance flowing into Egypt, the private sector, particularly its micro, small, and medium enterprises, has yet to experience the broad-based growth these investments were designed to catalyze. Between 2020 and 2025, international development partners committed more than 15.6 billion dollars to Egypt's private sector, yet private investment remains a modest share of the national economy, and most domestic firms continue to face severe barriers to credit.

This thesis argues that the answer lies not in the volume of capital mobilized, but in the coherence of the policies that govern how that capital reaches firms. The …

Converging, But Not Together: Regional Growth After Eu Enlargement, Armine Kardashyan

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

Using annual NUTS-3 data for eleven Central and Eastern European member states from 2000 to 2023, this paper studies whether regional catch-up after EU enlargement reflects absolute or conditional convergence. I estimate rolling ten-year convergence regressions within a steady-state framework in which regional GDP per capita depends on investment, human capital, and EU exposure. The results show strong conditional convergence during the early and middle phases of enlargement: Regions above their predicted steady states grow more slowly, consistent with adjustment toward heterogeneous long-run targets. This relationship weakens over time and becomes statistically indistinguishable from zero in later windows. Absolute convergence …

The Methodology Of Multiple Regressions For Gdp Per Capita For Nations In The World Between 0 Ce And 1940, Robert Rogers

The Journal of Economics and Politics

A reduced-form model of GDP per capita is estimated using the classical econometric method and two Bayesian techniques, Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Analysis of Classical Estimation (BACE) for the two millenniums. For several variables, such as the impact of colonialism, the Goldstone hypothesis of efflorescence increasing economic growth, and the impact of technology, this paper lends support, especially when the Bayesian methods are applied. Other results are mixed. Generally, the results support use of Bayesian methods by eliminating hypotheses that are not consistently supported over all models.

How States Can Design Better Economic Development Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik

Reports

No abstract provided.

How The Economic And Fiscal Benefits Of Economic Development Incentives Are Affected By Targeting, Housing Policy, And Incentive Design, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report finds that reformed state economic development policies can raise residents' per capita incomes by over 5 percent while generating a fiscal surplus exceeding 4 percent of state and local tax revenue. In other words, they can pay for themselves. Traditional policies, by contrast, boost incomes by less than half a percent and carry a net fiscal cost of more than 3 percent of tax revenue. Traditional policies rely on untargeted cash incentives such as tax abatements, credits, and grants, and leave zoning unchanged. Reformed policies instead provide customized business services (site-specific infrastructure, job training, business advice, incubators), target …

Public Rhetoric And Private Strategy: The World Bank's Relationship With Mexico Through The 1980s Debt Crisis, Phillip Purcell

Holster Scholar Projects

This project investigates how the World Bank's relationship with Mexico changed through the 1980s debt crisis and whether the institution's internal assessments differed from its public presentation. Drawing on archival memoranda, correspondence, briefing papers, and publicly available reports, the study compares World Bank deliberations with official statements and publications. It demonstrates that examining these private and public records together provides a clearer understanding of how the Bank formulated policy, exercised influence over Mexico's economic strategy, and responded to the challenges of debt, adjustment, and reform. More broadly, the project contributes to understanding the role of international financial institutions in shaping …

From Innovation To Impact: Evaluation Of The Shape Accelerator Cohort, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

The Solutions Hub for an Alternative Packaging Ecosystem (SHAPE), a Michigan-Ohio partnership operated by the Michigan State University Research Foundation as part of a National Science Foundation Regional Innovation Engine, co-funded a special cohort of the NextCycle Accelerator focused on sustainable packaging and circular economy ventures. This report evaluates how the accelerator contributed to firm-level advancement and ecosystem-level change, drawing on program data and interviews with participating companies, program facilitators, stakeholders, and SHAPE management.  Participants most consistently credited coaching, network connections, and the Pitch Showcase with meaningfully impacting their business trajectory, gaining market traction, advancing technology readiness, and gaining access …

Dynamic Forecasting Of Sovereign Wealth Fund Effects On State-Owned Firm Stocks Using Hybrid Arima–Garch Models, Ananta Hagabean Nasution, Teguh Yudo Wicaksono, Donny Oktavian Syah, Randhy Nugroho

BISNIS & BIROKRASI: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi dan Organisasi

This study examines the forecasting dynamics of Indonesia's Sovereign Wealth Fund, DANANTARA, on the BUMN-20 Index using a hybrid ARIMA-GARCH model. The establishment of DANANTARA in February 2025 generated mixed reactions among capital market participants, with the Indonesian Stock Exchange suspended trading after share prices declined by more than five percent. Using daily time-series data from June 2018 to August 2026, this study employs a hybrid ARIMA(1,1,3)-GARCH(1,1) framework processed through E-Views 12. The results indicate that the BUMN-20 Index is predominantly driven by broader market movements, as evidenced by the highly significant IHSG return coefficient (β =1.237, p < 0.001). In the mean equation, the DANANTARA announcement and launch events do not produce statistically significant shifts in average returns. However, in the variance equation, the announcement significantly elevated conditional volatility (γ = 0.025, p = 0.009), suggesting heightened market uncertainty. The volatility persistence measure (α + β = 0.952) indicates that shocks to the BUMN-20 Index decay slowly, with a half-life of approximately 14 trading days. The forecasting results suggest a gradually declining trajectory for the index, though this does not imply a causal relationship with DANANTARA. These findings contribute to the literature by demonstrating that the primary channel through which a nascent SWF affects domestic equity markets is volatility rather than returns. The policy implications highlight the importance of for transparent governance and consistent communication in mitigating market uncertainty surrounding DANANTARA's operations.

Refereed Research - Indispensable Yet Not Fully Legitimate: Street Markets As Invisible Subsistence Infrastructure, Raji Srinivasan, Maria C. Merino

Subsistence Marketplaces

Street markets are key provisioning systems across the Global South, supplying fresh food, employment, and retail access absent formal infrastructure. Yet despite street markets’ functional indispensability to millions of low-income consumers, their legitimacy is chronically contested, affirmed by vendors and communities yet challenged by planners, developers, and state authorities who apply formal-economy criteria in evaluating them. We theorize this as a legitimacy paradox and ask what structural mechanisms sustain it? Using composite vignettes grounded in fieldwork, we theorize three mechanisms. First, visibility without recognition: street markets are hyper-visible yet excluded from cognitive templates of legitimate, formal retail. Second, asymmetric essentiality: …

Metro Monitor 2026: Las Vegas And Reno, Nevada, Kevin Yang, Lara Karaalp, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents economic growth performance indicators in the Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV and Reno, NV metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), using data provided by the Brookings Institution’s Metro Monitor 2023  and 2026. The Metro Monitor explores five indicators of economic performance over ten year periods: the 2023 report provides data measuring the period from 2011 to 2021, while the 2026 report provides data measuring the period from 2014 to 2024. The Metro Monitor reports data on growth, prosperity, economic inclusion, racial inclusion, and geographic inclusion across 196 MSAs in the U.S.

Child Care Deserts In Mountain West Congressional Districts, 2024, Cason Noll, Yash Kalla, Yiselle Olivas Ruiz, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents data on child care deserts across 28 congressional districts in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah as of 2024. The percentage of young children residing in a child care desert and the urban, suburban, or rural designation of each congressional district are included. The Center for American Progress (CAP) report, ‘America’s Child Care Crisis Leaves Many Families Without Access to Licensed Care,’ includes data on all 435 U.S. congressional districts.

Gross Metropolitan Product (Gmp) And Gross State Product (Gsp) In The Mountain West, 2024, Devin Streuter, Phillip Seo, Zafeen Boulware, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents 2024 Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) and Gross State Product (GSP) data for five Mountain West states: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, and selected metros in these states. The data are derived from a report by the United States Conference of Mayors titled, “U.S. Metro Economies Annual Report and Forecast June 2025."

The Legend Of The Bear Lake Monster, Melissa Anderson Asay

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

The Bear Lake Monster is a legend that has persisted for centuries. This monster is rooted in Shoshone oral traditions and hold the potential to be based off of fossils found in the Shoshone territory. This living legend was later amplified by Mormon settlers. One settler in particular, Joseph C. Rich, played a significant role in shaping its narrative. Though he eventually admitted to fabricating sightings to encourage settlement, belief in the creature remains alive today. The serpent’s presence in local lore has undeniably influenced the Bear Lake region, shaping both its identity and tourism industry. This legend serves as …

When Does Emigration Reduce Domestic Economic Activities? Evidence On The Loss Of Management Capacity From A Visa Lottery, Marup Hossain, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

Economic development is often conceived as structural transformation and migration out of rural agriculture (Lewis, 1954; Fei & Ranis, 1964). Understanding development therefore requires us to identify how rural economies transform in response to emigration. We study how international migration reshapes domestic economic activity in origin households using a randomized visa lottery that gave Bangladeshi men job opportunities in Malaysia. Winning the lottery raises total household income through remittances, but income earned in Bangladesh declines due to contractions in nonfarm business activity. In contrast, crop income remains stable despite large reductions in agricultural input expenditures, because farming gets delegated through …

The Effect Of Childcare On Female Labor Supply And Child Development In Low And Middle Income Countries, Serena Goldberg, Costas Meghir

Discussion Papers

Childcare services can offer an opportunity for women to develop their careers and increase household income. At the same time, it can affect the development of children, depending on the quality of care. We first develop a collective model of the household as a conceptual framework to show how improving the availability of childcare can affect mothers’ labor market opportunities and earnings and how it can affect child development. We then review the literature on the effects of childcare on the employment and earnings of women and on child development. Childcare can increase mothers’ employment. However, limited work opportunities or …

Dynamics Of High-Growth Young Firms And The Role Of Venture Capitalists, Yoshiki Ando

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by the substantial growth and upfront investments of venture capital (VC)-backed firms observed in administrative US Census data, this study develops a life-cycle firm dynamics model. In the model, startups choose the source of financing from VC, angel investors, or banks, depending on their growth potential, and invest in innovation. The calibrated model explains the life-cycle dynamics of firms with different sources of financing and suggests that venture capitalists' managerial advice accounts for around 22% of the growth in VC-backed firms. A counterfactual economy without VC financing would experience an aggregate consumption loss of around 0.46%.

Pathways To The Streets: A Proposed Model Examining The Factors Influencing Gang Affiliation And Involvement Among Young Black Men In The United States, Ceauna L. Juarez

Dissertations

This literature review examined gang involvement among young Black men in the United States and explored the factors that contribute to joining gangs and the consequences that may follow. The first chapter provides a brief history of gang involvement in Black communities and introduces Erikson’s development model, self-determination theory, and the minorities’ diminished returns as the three theoretical frameworks. The second chapter discusses common challenges faced by young Black men who are currently involved in gangs or are at risk of joining. The chapter explores issues such as life expectancy after gang involvement, adverse childhood experiences, mental health concerns, and …

State Investments In Childcare In The Mountain West, 2026, Sophia Booth, Yiselle Olivas Ruiz, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents data on state investments in childcare and preschool programs in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. BabyCenter’s 2026 analysis, “These are the best and worst states for childcare,” includes state-level data on childcare accessibility, affordability, public investment, and overall childcare rankings for all 50 states. This fact sheet focuses on childcare spaces per child, income spent on childcare, and state investment per child.

What Drives Sovereign Sukuk Development? The Role Of Institutional Quality And Macroeconomic Conditions In Oic Countries, Rahmatina Awaliah Kasri, Aulia Utami

International Journal of Islamic Economics and Business Sustainability

Purpose – The study examines the relationship between institutional quality, macroeconomic conditions, and sovereign sukuk outstanding in eight member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) during 2014–2021.

Design/methodology/approach– The study employs panel data for Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye. Institutional quality is measured using government effectiveness, control of corruption, regulatory quality, and voice and accountability. Macroeconomic variables included are economic size, inflation, and oil rents. Fixed-effects panel regressions with robust standard errors are applied following model specification and diagnostic tests.

Findings – Economic size and voice and accountability are positively associated …

Human Capital, Regional Development, And Maqasid Sharia: An Input-Output Analysis Of Government Spending And Private Investment In Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Adibah Seila, Nurkholis Nurkholis Mr.

International Journal of Islamic Economics and Business Sustainability

Purpose – This study examines the sectoral linkages and multiplier effects of local government expenditure and private investment in education, health, and information and communication technology (ICT) – sectors central to human capital formation – in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY), Indonesia, and interprets the findings through a Maqasid Sharia lens.

Design/methodology/approach – The 2016 input-output table for DIY (17 sectors) was updated to 2020–2029 using the RAS method. Backward and forward linkages and output, gross value added (GVA), income, and labor multipliers were estimated for all sectors. Four shock simulations (ICT, education, health, and a combined shock) were …

How Incentive Design Affects The Benefit-Cost Ratio Of Clean Energy Projects, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Most Affordable And Fastest-Growing Cities In The Mountain West, 2026, Cason Noll, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Cities & Metros

This fact sheet presents data on the most affordable and fastest-growing cities among the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The data are sourced from MoneyLion’s “50 Most Affordable, Fastest-Growing Cities” report, which analyzed and ranked U.S. cities by the most affordable places with large population growth. This fact sheet focuses on the 10 Mountain West cities that ranked within the top 50 and their corresponding 5-year population growth rate, median household income, annual cost of living for both homeowners and renters, and the leftover savings available at the end of the year for …

Digital Government Maturity Dan Kapasitas Fiskal Dalam Penyerapan Anggaran Daerah Di Indonesia, Winda Chelsea Meisari, Siti Fatimah

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This study examines the determinants of budget absorption within Indonesian provincial governments by assessing the impact of digital government maturity and regional fiscal capacity. Digital maturity is operationalized using the Electronic-Based Government System (SPBE) index, while fiscal capacity is proxied by the Natural Logarithm of Local Genuine Revenue (Ln_PAD). Adopting a quantitative approach with a cross-sectional design encompassing 38 provinces in 2024, the data were evaluated through multiple linear regression analysis. The empirical findings demonstrate that neither digital maturity (p-value = 0.966) nor fiscal capacity (p-value = 0.774) exhibits a statistically significant relationship with budget absorption, both partially and simultaneously …

Democratic Economic Planning From And For Social Reproduction: Foundations For A Postcapitalist Research Agenda, Sophie Elias-Pinsonnault, Bengi Akbulut, Audrey Laurin-Lamothe

Emancipations: A Journal of Critical Social Analysis

As ecological and social crises render the transformation of capitalist economic organization increasingly urgent, the resurgence of interest in democratic economic planning confronts a foundational blind spot: the systematic neglect of social reproduction. This paper argues that any genuinely needs-based planned economy must extend its scope beyond formally recognized productive activities to encompass the full spectrum of reproductive labor through which human and non-human life is sustained and regenerated. Drawing on feminist political economy and the Marxist-feminist tradition, the authors argue that meeting needs requires more than reorganizing production: it demands confronting the question of who does reproductive work, at …

The Asymmetric Effect Of The Rupiah Exchange Rate On Indonesia's Non-Oil And Gas Exports, Muhammad Sugiantoro, Diah Wahyuningsih, Ris Yuwono Yudo Nugroho, Widita Kurniasari, Ahmad Kamil

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

This study aims to analyze the asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports, by considering the control variables. As well as identifying whether Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports are more responsively influenced by rupiah exchange rate depreciation or rupiah exchange rate appreciation. The analysis technique used is Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) with quarterly data from 2016 to 2023. The results showed that the rupiah exchange rate has an asymmetric effect on Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports, both in the short and long term. Depreciation and appreciation of the rupiah exchange …

Building Community Leadership Capacity Through Extension Partnerships: An Evaluation Case Study, Paul A. Hill, Lendel K. Narine

Journal of Human Sciences and Extension

This evaluation study examines the effectiveness of the Leadership Dixie program in enhancing leadership capacity among participants in Washington County, Utah. As a program partner, Utah State University (USU) Extension conducted the evaluation on the program’s 25th class, comprising 27 participants (N = 27). The program, characterized by 10 monthly “Challenge Day” field tours, was evaluated using two instruments to collect data on participant learning and satisfaction levels, overall program experience, demographics, and impacts on social capital, interpersonal leadership skills, community engagement, and volunteerism. Results indicate strong positive outcomes in social capital, community engagement, and volunteerism while highlighting areas for …

Essays In Applied Microeconomics, Md Tahmeed Hossain

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation contributes to empirical economics research by examining three settings in which historical shocks, behavioral constraints, and localized public events affect social relations, decision quality, and public safety. The first chapter examines the persistence of historical religious conflict in contemporary Hindu–Muslim relations in India. The second chapter studies how time pressure affects decision quality in online chess. The third chapter analyzes the localized traffic-safety externalities of NFL game days. Across these settings, the dissertation uses large-scale data and quasi-experimental research designs to distinguish causal effects from selection, spatial concentration, and persistent local conditions.

The first chapter asks whether historical …

Infrastruktur, Kelembagaan Tani, Kemandirian Ekonomi Desa: Geografi Dan Paradoks Kepemimpinan Di Indonesia, Tri Wahyu Cahyono

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study examines determinants of village economic independence (PADes) in Indonesia, focusing on infrastructure, social capital, and leadership. Using 2024 PODES census data (N=84,240) and clustered logistic regression, results show road infrastructure as the strongest factor (OR: 2.27). A “leadership paradox” emerges, where higher education of village heads negatively correlates with PADes formation. Geographic analysis reveals infrastructure effectiveness depends on topography, with lowland areas gaining the greatest structural advantage. Findings highlight the need for topography-based policy differentiation to strengthen fiscal independence in rural Indonesia.

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …