Econometrics Commons^™

Asymptotic Variance And Extensions Of A Denisty-Weighted-Response Semiparametric Estimator, Myoung-Jae Lee, Fali Huang, Young-Sook Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Building on some early works, Lewbel (2000) proposed estimators for binary and ordered discrete response models with endogenous regressors. These estimators have been extended for panel data and for truncated and censored models by later papers. The estimators are particularly innovative in that the latent linear regression functions are pulled out of the nonlinear limited dependent variable models, which are then treated as if they were the usual linear models. But understanding the estimators and their applications have been “hampered” by less-than-ideal expositions and assumptions. For this problem, this short note reviews the estimators and makes the following three points. …

Testing Structural Change In Time-Series Nonparametric Regression Models, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a CUSUM type of test for structural change in dynamic nonparametric regression models. It is based upon the cumulative sums of weighted residuals from a single nonparametric regression and complements the conventional parameter instability tests in parametric models. We derive the limiting distributions of the test under both the null hypothesis and sequences of local alternatives. A boot-strap procedure is also proposed and its validity is justified. Finally, simulation experiments are conducted to investigate the finite sample properties of our test.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — February 2008, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Mapping The Discipline Of The Olympic Games An Author-Cocitation Analysis, Peter Warning, Rosie Ching, Kristine Toohey

Research Collection School Of Economics

The authors conducted an author cocitation analysis on prominent authors writing about the Olympics during the 1990s. Author cocitation is an established bibliometric technique that can be used to measure the relative similarities of topics written about by the cited authors. This enables a visual representation of the “intellectual space” of the discipline, in this case the Olympics, to be created for the period under review. So core and peripheral research areas are identified, along with their major contributors. The representation appears as a two-dimensional cluster-enhanced map. Subject expertise was then applied to the results to place labels on the …

Optimal Collusion With Internal Contracting, Gea Myoung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we develop a model of collusion in which two firms play an infinitelyrepeated Bertrand game when each firm has a privately-informed agent. The colluding firms, fixing prices, allocate market shares based on the agent’s information as to cost types. We emphasize that the presence of privately-informed agents may provide firms with a strategic opportunity to exploit an interaction between internal contracting and market-sharing arrangement: the contracts with agents may be used to induce firms’ truthful communication in their collusion, and collusive market-share allocation may act to reduce the agents’ information rents.

Determinants Of Gasoline Price: Can Consumer Spending Make A Difference?, Jonathan Stachelek

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the determinants to gasoline prices in the United States. The regression contains five different independent variables: the price of imported oil per barrel, the number of barrels of oil imported to the United States, the number of barrels of oil produced domestically in United States, the commodity price of oil, the number of automobiles purchased monthly in the United States, and the dependent variable, Gasoline Price. By using these variables in a linear regression model, the results show that the price of gasoline is primarily driven by the price of imported crude oil, followed shortly thereafter by …

Differing Immigrant Wages: Causes For Differences In Immigrants Standards Of Living, Sahana Zutshi

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper looks at the relationship between immigration workers and their differing standards of living based on various variables. The variables chosen were gender, place of origin/ethnicity, number of years living in the United States, education level and finally, the age of the immigrants. The model incorporates all these variables and then finds the connection between them and the earning status of the immigrants. The results show that gender and ethnicity often impact the earnings negatively whereas age, number of years living in the US and education level impact immigrant earnings positively.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — January 2008, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Factors Affecting Health Care Spending, Jennifer Resende

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

With an aging population and an increase in health care spending across many nations, there is a need to determine what is affecting this increase and whether this trend can be expected to continue into the future. This paper aims to investigate the possible differences in health care expenditures in different countries. The study incorporates the use and analysis of several independent variables that are believed to affect health care spending in an array of countries including life expectancies, the increase in aging populations, health care spending on private sectors, and the quality of health care as represented by the …

The Social And Behavioral Factors That Affect Obesity In Oecd Countries, Sanjana Desai

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the factors that affect obesity in the population of the member countries of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This study incorporates existing information of the most likely variables that would influence obesity in these member countries for a decade (1990-2000). The study looks at contributing factors that are both innate and acquired, such as Alcohol Consumption, Low-birth weight, sugar consumption, smoking (consumption of tobacco), and protein intake and public and private expenditure on education. Using macro-level data from various sources, the results generally suggest that factors like alcohol consumption, low-birth weight and sugar consumption …

U.S. Current Account: Why Is It Increasingly Negative?, Joshua Champagne

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the reasons for the increasingly negative United States current account. The study incorporates information into a multivariate linear regression model to examine the influence of various economic indicators on the U.S. current account. The paper focuses more so on which variables create an increase in the current account and which variables cause deterioration and why the overall value of the current account is continually becoming more negative. The results show that the U.S. Current Account is negative because there is not enough government investment, savings, and private savings, along with a negative fiscal policy, combined with an …

The Importance Of Governance To A Stable And Developed Economy, Peter Litvinenko

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the assumption that proficient governance is essential in securing a stable economy. It studies and analyzes many relevant variables that one would find controlled by the government in its economy. My results show that these established nations all have differences in terms of debt and balance of trades but all seem to agree on the importance of maintaining a morally stable and efficient government structure that allows them to compete in the world economy.

Economic And Social Factors That Influence Life Expectancy And Infant Mortality, Kenneth Smith

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates life expectancy and infant mortality rates in randomly selected countries from around the world. This study takes into consideration many economic and social factors that could potentially have an effect on life expectancy and infant mortality in different countries. Factors are modeled using a least-squared regression model and are determined as significant based on their probability factor. Results show both positive and negative effects depending on the economic and social factor.

The Interaction Between The Stock Market, Monetary Policy And Inflation In Singapore And Malaysia, Lindsey Kahler

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates and compares the interactions among the stock market, monetary policy, and inflation in both Singapore and Malaysia from 2005 through 2007 using bivariate and multivariate vector autoregressive cointegrating specifications. The Granger-causality test shows that for Malaysia there significant unidirectional relationships of inter-bank loan rates to inflation, and inflation to Kuala Lumpur stock returns. For Singapore there is only one significant marginal unidirectional Granger-causality relationship of inflation to Straits Times stock returns. There are no reciprocal relationships in either country. Based on changes in the stock market, the multivariate results show negative changes on the interbank interest rates …

The Impact Of Sectoral Performance On The Stock Market: Does Volatility Equal Explanatory Power?, Jeffrey Haydock

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the real impact of sector performance on the overall stock market and the possibility that the primary culprit of negative or positive performance isn’t necessarily the one that significantly drives overall market performance. The study compares average gain or loss by sector with regression analysis to determine if the largest gainer or loser is also reflected in regression analysis after beta calculation. The results show that there is very limited correlation between the two measures suggesting that major volatility in one sector doesn’t necessarily have the greatest impact on total market movement.

United States Homeownership Rates: The Effect Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Domestic Real Estate Market, Alexander Grande

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the correlation between U.S. economic indicators and the domestic real estate market. The analysis of the study’s findings and results show that some indicators adversely affect homeownership rates in conjunction to the overall state of the market during the time frame depicted. The regression is from a model used on an international level and it is taken and applied here to the domestic market of one country; the United States. The results from the research and tests performed highlight the economic indicators that are closely correlated to the rate of homeownership.

Causality Relationship Between Foreign Exchange Rates And Stock Market Close: Evidence From Singapore, Jeffrey Shew, Jr.

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper attempts to examine whether or not a causal relationship exists between exchange rates and stock market returns. By using the Granger Causality model, causality relationships were determined for four data sets created through the use of significant structural breaks between 1990 and 2006 in Singapore. The results suggest that over the course of 16 years there exists no relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns. However, from 1990 up until the Asian Financial Crisis exchange rates led stock prices as suggested by Granger et al. (2000). The other two time series, between the Asian Financial Crisis and …

An Analysis Of The Female Labor Force Participation Rate In The U.S. 1980-2004, Larry Martins

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This research uses census data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to examine the female labor force participation from 1980 to 2004. These statistics are used to find the determinants of women’s decisions to enter the job market. The purpose of studying the female involvement in the labor force is to illustrate if females are still having trouble in the market. This article also reviews historical labor force statistics to determine how the labor force has changed and which factors have affected its changes between 1980 and 2004. The model, estimated with U.S. data, has provided empirical support for the …

Causality Between Defense Spending Gdp And Economic Growth, Ryan P. Daley

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper addresses whether or not the government members of the “Coalition of the Willing” military expenditure as a participant in the war in Iraq will help to generate domestic economic growth on the eve of an impending recession. This paper analyzes the findings during the time period 1989-2006 regarding military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, and its effect on GDP growth, through comparing that relationship between studies and in different political, socioeconomic circumstances. It also performs the same tests on the most recent and complete set of data available for the 31 member nations of the Coalition, to …

Ape205, Section 4, Real Competition, Loose Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Profit-rate differences across firms [Handwritten research notes citing John Cable and Dennis Mueller and contrasting static and Schumpeterian explanations of interfirm profit-rate differences, followed by related equations]. (2007, September 16).
• Classical competitive process [Handwritten analytical note deriving relationships among relative prices, profit rates, output, and capital growth]. (2008, January 18).
• Quantitative Micro Software, LLC. (2004, October 27). EViews help: Structuring a workfile [Heavily annotated software-help excerpt on dated, cross-sectional, and panel-data organization, balancing, identifiers, missing values, and restructuring].
• Data in EViews regressions [Handwritten econometric note specifying a cross-industry regression and panel error components]. (n.d.).
• Chen, P. (2008, …

Capital Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Capital stock [Handwritten notes with formulas for gross and net stock]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Tsoulfidis, L. (1999, May 27). Capacity utilization measures [Email to Anwar Shaikh]. Unpublished correspondence.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Capacity utilization [Notes addressed to Anwar Shaikh]. Unpublished manuscript.

• U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1999, May 4). Plant capacity utilization [Data table]. U.S. Department of Commerce.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Depreciation and geometric decay [Handwritten notes with equations]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Wasshausen, D. (2008, January 8). Census book value measures versus BEA measures [Email exchange with Anwar Shaikh]. Unpublished correspondence. …

The Effect Of Devaluation On Output In The Egyptian Economy: A Vector Autoregression Analysis, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Hala El-Ramly

Business Administration

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate changes and output in the Egyptian economy. This is the first such study that we know of for Egypt. Employing a Vector Autoregression model, the paper conducts the study using annual data for Egypt over the period 1982-2004. The results of the study indicate that devaluations have an initial contractionary effect on output in Egypt. This contractionary effect lasts for a period of as long as four years before the expected positive effect of the devaluation starts to materialize. Moreover, the study clarifies that real exchange rate …

Market Efficiency At The Derby: A Real Horse Race, Steven D. Dolvin, Mark K. Pyles

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Using race data from each Kentucky Derby from 1920 to 2005, we examine whether the horse wagering market is efficient. Most prior studies in this arena test potential betting strategies that rely on posted odds, generally finding that it is extremely difficult to devise and implement any consistently successful wager (i.e., market efficiency). We extend these studies by examining underlying determinants of posted race odds, specifically focusing on the experience of auxiliary members (e.g., jockey, breeder and trainer) associated with each entrant. We find that past Derby experience is an important determinant of posted odds and that the odds-making system …

Testing For Heteroskedasticity And Spatial Correlation In A Random Effects Panel Data Model, Badi H. Baltagi, Seuck Heun Song, Jae Hyeok Kwon

Center for Policy Research

A panel data regression model with heteroskedastic as well as spatially correlated disturbance is considered, and a joint LM test for homoskedasticity and no spatial correlation is derived. In addition, a conditional LM test for no spatial correlation given heteroskedasticity, as well as a conditional LM test for homoskedasticity given spatial correlation, are also derived. These LM tests are compared with marginal LM tests that ignore heteroskedasticity in testing for spatial correlation, or spatial correlation in testing for homoskedasticity. Monte Carlo results show that these LM tests as well as their LR counterparts perform well even for small N and …

Testing For Heteroskedasticity And Serial Correlation In A Random Effects Panel Data Model, Badi H. Baltagi, Byoung Cheol Jung, Seuck Heun Song

Center for Policy Research

This paper considers a panel data regression model with heteroskedastic as well as serially correlated disturbances, and derives a joint LM test for homoskedasticity and no first order serial correlation. The restricted model is the standard random individual error component model. It also derives a conditional LM test for homoskedasticity given serial correlation, as well as a conditional LM test for no first order serial correlation given heteroskedasticity, all in the context of a random effects panel data model. Monte Carlo results show that these tests, along with their likelihood ratio alternatives, have good size and power under various forms …

Optimal Bandwidth Selection In Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers studentized tests in time series regressions with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors. The studentization is based on robust standard errors with truncation lag M = bT for some constant b ∈ (0, 1] and sample size T. It is shown that the nonstandard fixed-b limit distributions of such nonparametrically studentized tests provide more accurate approximations to the finite sample distributions than the standard small-b limit distribution. We further show that, for typical economic time series, the optimal bandwidth that minimizes a weighted average of type I and type II errors is larger by an order of magnitude than the …

Cointegration + Capital Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2003, March; 2004, May 19). Cointegration and capital stock [Handwritten notes].

• Liang, G., & Shaikh, A. (2004, July 7). State space coefficient restrictions in EViews [Email printout].

• Moudud, J. K. (2005, April 4). Microfit 4.0 tutorial lessons [Software tutorial printouts with handwritten annotations].

• Shaikh, A. (2005, April 8). Hicksian adjustment [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2005, May 6). Pesaran bounds testing procedure [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2008, May 25). Basic model, error correction mechanism, and Cochrane–Orcutt [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Tutorial lessons: Lessons in cointegration analysis [Printouts with …

Refined Inference On Long Memory In Realized Volatility, Peter C. B. Phillips, Offer Lieberman

Research Collection School Of Economics

There is an emerging consensus in empirical finance that realized volatility series typically display long range dependence with a memory parameter around 0.4 (Andersen et al., 2001; Martens et al., 2004). The present article provides some illustrative analysis of how long memory may arise from the accumulative process underlying realized volatility. The article also uses results in Lieberman and Phillips (2004, 2005) to refine statistical inference about by higher order theory. Standard asymptotic theory has an error rate for error rejection probabilities, and the theory used here refines the approximation to an error rate of. The new formula is independent …

Hong Kong's Money: The History, Logic And Operation Of The Currency Peg, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

Testing For Random Effects And Spatial Lag Dependence In Panel Data Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper derives a joint Lagrande Multiplier (LM) test which simultaneously tests for the absence of spatial lag dependence and random individual effects in a panel data regression model. It turns out that this LM statistic is the sum of two standard LM statistics. The first one tests for the absence of spatial lag dependence ignoring the random individual effects, and the second one tests for the absence of random individual effects ignoring the spatial lag dependence. This paper also derives two conditional LM tests. The first one tests for the absence of random individual effects without ignoring the possible …