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Articles 61 - 66 of 66
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
High Stakes Behavior With Low Payoffs: Inducing Preferences With Holt-Laury Gambles, John Dickhaut, Daniel Houser, Jason A. Aimone, Dorina Tila, Cathleen Johnson
High Stakes Behavior With Low Payoffs: Inducing Preferences With Holt-Laury Gambles, John Dickhaut, Daniel Houser, Jason A. Aimone, Dorina Tila, Cathleen Johnson
ESI Working Papers
A continuing goal of experiments is to understand risky decisions when the decisions are important. Often a decision’s importance is related to the magnitude of the associated monetary stake. Khaneman and Tversky (1979) argue that risky decisions in high stakes environments can be informed using questionnaires with hypothetical choices (since subjects have no incentive to answer questions falsely.) However, results reported by Holt and Laury (2002, henceforth HL), as well as replications by Harrison (2005) suggest that decisions in “high” monetary payoff environments are not well-predicted by questionnaire responses. Thus, a potential implication of the HL results is that studying …
Generating Ambiguity In The Laboratory, Jack Douglas Stecher, Timothy W. Shields, John Dickhaut
Generating Ambiguity In The Laboratory, Jack Douglas Stecher, Timothy W. Shields, John Dickhaut
ESI Working Papers
This article develops a method for drawing samples from which it is impossible to infer any quantile or moment of the underlying distribution. The method provides researchers with a way to give subjects the experience of ambiguity. In any experiment, learning the distribution from experience is impossible for the subjects, essentially because it is impossible for the experimenter. We describe our method mathematically, illustrate it in simulations, and then test it in a laboratory experiment. Our technique does not withhold sampling information, does not assume that the subject is incapable of making statistical inferences, is replicable across experiments, and requires …
Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?, Ryan Oprea, David Porter, Chris Hibbert, Robin Hanson, Dorina Tila
Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?, Ryan Oprea, David Porter, Chris Hibbert, Robin Hanson, Dorina Tila
ESI Working Papers
We study experimental markets where privately informed traders exchange simple assets, and where uninformed third parties are asked to forecast the values of these assets, guided only by market prices. Although prices only partially aggregate information, they signicantly improve the forecasts of third parties. In a second treatment, a portion of traders are given preferences over the forecasts made by observers. Although we find evidence that these traders attempt to manipulate prices in order to influence the beliefs of observers, we find no evidence that observers make less accurate forecasts as a result.
Adaptive Estimation Of Autoregressive Models With Time-Varying Variances, Ke-Li Xu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Adaptive Estimation Of Autoregressive Models With Time-Varying Variances, Ke-Li Xu, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Stable autoregressive models are considered with martingale differences errors scaled by an unknown nonparametric time-varying function generating heterogeneity. An important special case involves structural change in the error variance, but in most practical cases the pattern of variance change over time is unknown and may involve shifts at unknown discrete points in time, continuous evolution or combinations of the two. This paper develops kernel-based estimators of the residual variances and associated adaptive least squares (ALS) estimators of the autoregressive coefficients. Simulations show that efficiency gains are achieved by the adaptive procedure.
Unit Root Model Selection, Peter C. B. Phillips
Unit Root Model Selection, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Some limit properties for information based model selection criteria are given in the context of unit root evaluation and various assumptions about initial conditions. Allowing for a nonparametric short memory component, standard information criteria are shown to be weakly consistent for a unit root provided the penalty coefficient Cn?? and Cn/n?0 as n??. Strong consistency holds when Cn/(log logn)3?? under conventional assumptions on initial conditions and under a slightly stronger condition when initial conditions are infinitely distant in the unit root model. The limit distribution of the AIC criterion is obtained.
Rational And Boundedly Rational Behavior In Sender-Receiver Games, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Colucci
Rational And Boundedly Rational Behavior In Sender-Receiver Games, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Colucci
Research Collection School Of Economics
The authors investigate the strategic rationale behind the message sent by Osama bin Laden on the eve of the 2004 U.S. Presidential elections. They model this situation as a signaling game in which a population of receivers takes a binary choice, the outcome is decided by majority rule, sender and receivers have conflicting interests, and there is uncertainty about both players’ degree of rationality. They characterize the structure of the sequential equilibria of the game as a function of the parameters governing the uncertainty and find that in all pure strategy equilibria, the outcome most preferred by the rational sender …