Econometrics Commons^™

Empirical Evidences On Pricing Mechanism In Pakistan: A Duration Analysis, Fauzia Sohail, Ambreen Fatima

Business Review

This study evaluates the price setting behavior across main cities of Pakistan by employing the micro data from retail price survey. The most contemporary research technique of Duration Analysis is employed where survivor functions are estimated by most illustrious nonparametric Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen Estimators. Hazard Functions for various product groups are also estimated by employing parametric Weibull Hazard Model. Results confirm that perishable food items have shortest duration of one week for most of the spells, where government regulation caused prices to change more frequently. It is found that on average small cities faced lower hazard and thus comparably lesser …

The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Government Debt In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Junaid Kamal

Business Review

This paper examines the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis for Pakistan using a vector error-correction model. The sample period extends from June 2002 to January 2020. The results are reported using variance decompositions and impulse response functions. The base model contains six variables and is estimated with 4 lags. We find support for the idea that wealth does not increase as government debt increases; Hence, it proves the fact that economic agents are rational actors and foresee current expansionary actions of the government that result in accumulation of debt as the present value of future taxation that they have to pay and …

The Impact Of Covid-19 On Stock Market And Exchange Rate Uncertainty In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Mannan Zaheer

Business Review

This paper examines the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exchange rate (EXU) and stock market uncertainty (SMU) in Pakistan while controlling for the effects of interest rate and policy interventions by the Government and the Central bank to combat the pandemic. We employ the vector autoregressive (VAR) model over a sample period ranging from February 25, 2020 to May 6, 2021. We find that a shock to total daily coronavirus cases in Pakistan has a positive and significant impact on both the EXU and SMU. However, this impact is short-lived which may be attributed to a timely policy response and …

An Alternative Class Of Ratio-Regression-Type Estimator Under Two-Phase Sampling Scheme, Muhammad Isah, Zakari Yahaya, Audu Ahmed

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, a new exponential ratio-regression estimator is developed using an auxiliary variable for estimating the finite population mean under a two-phase sampling system. The Bias and Mean Square Error (MSE) of the proposed estimator are derived and compared with some of the estimators in extant literature. Thus, the conditions under which the proposed estimator is better than some existing estimators are provided. Empirically, using four real datasets and simulation study, the proposed estimator performs better than the classical ratio, classical regression, exponential ratio, and exponential regression cum ratio estimator when compared using the criteria of bias, mean square …

Insurgency, Political Risk, And Foreign Direct Investment Inflows In Nigeria: A Sectorial Analysis, Danjuma Iyaji

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines, among others, the effect of terrorism, political violence, corruption, and religious tension on FDI inflows to the banking, construction, manufacturing, oil and gas, and telecommunication sectors in Nigeria. Thus, empirical models were estimated using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) technique. The study spans from 2008Q1 to 2017Q4. Findings show that terrorism adversely affects FDI inflow to telecommunication sector, while corruption positively impacts on the oil and gas sector. Thus, this study among other things, recommends the intensification of effort in the war against terrorism and strengthening of relevant anti-graft agencies to adequately fight corruption in …

Monetary Policy Transmission And Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Eleam Victor E., Ekwom Chinyelu G., Ariolu Chibueze C., Umebali Chukwubuzo J., Balogun Adewale T.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the adjustment of retail and money market interest rates to changes in discount corridor of the monetary policy in Nigeria. A vector error correction model was adopted for this study, using monthly data from 2007:06 to 2019:12. We further accounted for structural breaks in the dataset to improve its policy reliability. The adjustment parameters were found to be significant but with slow speed of adjustment. This finding provides evidence of the weakness of the discount corridor in monetary policy transmission in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results showed no asymmetric adjustment of retail rates to long run equilibria. Lastly, …

Inflations And Its Uncertainty In Some Ecowas Member States: Transfer Entropy Approach, Otoakhia Eric I.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the information flow between inflation and inflation uncertainty (IU) and intrastate inflationary trend among some ECOWAS member states. IU is measured using GARCH models and stochastic volatility model (SV). Transfer entropy was adopted to quantify the extent of information flow. The result showed information flow exists from inflation to the GARCH measure of IU. On the reverse flow from inflation uncertainty to inflation, there is no information flow except for Burkina Faso and Gambia which have asymmetric bidirectional flow between inflation and IU. Adopting SV measure for IU, there are no support for causality from inflation to …

Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate And Consumption In Nigeria: A Nonlinear Approach, Babangida Jamilu S., Sanusi Aliyu R., Yusuf Isah M.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyses the relationship between real exchange rate and domestic consumption in Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Findings show that domestic consumption determines the regime shift in real exchange rate, suggesting a nonlinear linkage with clearly distinct regimes. The lagged exchange rate is shown to have a significant linear effect on the current exchange rate. On the other hand, current foreign consumption is positive but has no significant impact on the exchange rate in the linear part of the model. In the nonlinear part of the model, evidence of a significant negative …

The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Entitlements, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Riffat Naseer

The Hilltop Review

The worries expressed by Alan Greenspan that the long run economic growth of the United States will fade away due to increasing burden of entitlements motivated us to empirically investigate the impact of entitlements of key macroeconomic variables. To examine this contemporary issue, we estimate a vector error-correction model to analyze the impact of entitlements on the price level, real output, and the long-term interest rate. The results show that a shock to entitlements leads to decrease in output and lends support to the assertion made by Alan Greenspan. Several robustness checks verify that the results remain unchanged qualitatively.

Asymmetric Trade Flows, Monetary And Business Cycle Asynchronization Among Ecowas Member Countries: Feasibility Of Ecowas Monetary Union Formation Beyond 2020, Joseph Okwori, Walter O. Ugwuoke

Bullion

The formation of the West African Monetary Union which was initially slated for 2003 was postponed severally in 2005, 2009, 2015 and 2020. This raises the curiosity of investigating the possibility of its formation beyond 2020. It is against this backdrop that this paper investigated asymmetric trade flows, monetary policy and business cycle asynchronization among ECOWAS member countries: Feasibility of ECOWAS Monetary union formation beyond 2020. The objective was addressed using Pearson correlation analysis on computed zscores and the seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE). The finding shows that the flow of trade within ECOWAS member countries were highly asymmetric indicating …

External Sector Liberalization And Output Growth In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Onwioduokit, Obong E. Effiong

Bullion

The paper investigates the impact of external sector liberalization (foreign direct investment, external debt stock, trade openness and exchange rate) on the output growth in Nigeria from the period 1981 to 2019, utilizing correlation analysis, Granger causality test and vector autoregression (VAR). The results indicate that foreign direct investment, external debt stock, trade openness and exchange rate all correlate positively with gross domestic product. Also, the granger causality test indicates that foreign direct investment, trade openness and exchange rate granger cause the output growth in Nigeria. From the VAR result foreign direct investment exerted positive and significant impact on the …

Pass-Through Effects Of Standing Facilities On Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Victor Ezeora Eleam, Chinyelu Gloria Ekwom, Chibueze Charles Ariolu, Chukwubuzo Jackson Umebali, Adewale Timothy Balogun

Economic and Financial Review

The paper investigates the pattern of pass-through effects of standing facilities rates on commercial bank retail interest rates in Nigeria. Monthly data spanning 2007:06 to 2019:12 and the Gregory-Hansen cointegration method that accounts for structural breaks are used in the empirical analysis. The adjustment parameters for the standing deposit and lending facilities are found to be significant, but with a low speed of adjustment. This provides some evidence on the nature of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission in the country. Furthermore, the study could not confirm asymmetry in the adjustment of retail rates to their long-run equilibria. …

Three Essays On Exchange Rate Models And Their Applications, Azza A. Mansour

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to identify the determinant of exchange rate pass-through into producer and destination prices using highly disaggregated firm-level data of importers and exporters of the Egyptian economy from 2009 to 2013. The main findings assert the hypothesis of complete exchange rate pass-through into destination prices at the lowest level of significance for the average exporting firm that is also importing. Furthermore, the firm with the highest import intensity has a lower percentage of pass-through into destination prices, indicating that the marginal cost channel plays a more significant role in determining the speed of the exchange rate …

Is Egypt On A Sustainable Path Of Debt Repayment: Evidence From Imf Framework And Fiscal Reaction Function, Maha Rashied

Theses and Dissertations

Fiscal policy is the starting point for an economy to achieve solid economic and social objectives through macroeconomic stability. Risks associated with excessive borrowing and the required fiscal adjustments are threatening especially to developing countries whose debt to GDP ratios are on the rise. Those countries’ fiscal policies’ sustainability is questioned; hence this research aims at testing for Egypt public debt sustainability and assessing the method capitalized on by the Egyptian authorities; the IMF Approach. By comparing the IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis Approach to the fiscal reaction function with ARDL and VAR as estimation methods, the results of both methods …

Essays On Economic Uncertainty And Housing Market In China, Humenghe Zhao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that covers topics in macroeconomics.

Chapter 1. Literature Survey of China’s Housing Market and Macroeconomic Uncertainty is a survey of the literature on the history and development of China’s housing market, its unique characteristics, the driving forces behind rising housing prices, and the empirical interactions among housing market, economic uncertainty and the macroeconomy in China.

Chapter 2. The Spatial Correlation of Regional Housing Prices and Economic Uncertainty in China

Rapid real estate development and house price growth in China have garnered significant attention in academia and policy circles. Investigation into highly differentiated but interrelated …

An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos

Dissertations

The last 8 years have seen a dramatic increase in the flow of Central American apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol. Explanations for this surge in apprehensions have been split between two leading hypotheses. Most academic scholars, immigrant advocates, progressive media outlets, and human rights organizations identify poverty and violence (the Poverty and Violence Hypothesis) in Central America as the primary triggers responsible. In contrast, while most government officials, conservative think tanks, and the agencies that work in the immigration and border enforcement realm admit poverty and violence may underlie some decisions to migrate, they instead blame lax U.S. immigration …

The Effects Of Imf's Lending And Conditionalities On Economic Growth: Case Of Sadc Countries, Lutete Celina Carlos

Masters Theses

I examine the impact of IMF credit use and its conditions on economic growth performance in 12 South African countries over a period of 1999-2019. The work adopts an empirical and quantitative approach to analyzing the relationship between the GDP per Capita, the use of IMF Credit, Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Net Domestic Credit and Current Account balance. These variables are the most recommended in the IMF conditionalities during the lending arrangements with SADC members. The study uses Fixed-effect approach to evaluate how the use of IMF program and the conditions imposed directly affects economic growth. A dummy variable is …

Public Debt, Its Impact On Gdp & Crowding Out Effect: Evidence From The Usa, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

In this study, we examined the long-term relationship between public debt, GDP, private investment, and interest rates. We found two significant long-term relationships among these variables. First, interest rates are positively correlated with public debt and negatively correlated with GDP. Second, private investment is negatively correlated with public debt and positively correlated with GDP. These findings suggest the presence of a crowding out effect, where public debt limits private investment by increasing interest rates and reducing access to available funds.

Relationship Between Volatility In Domestic Oil Production, Oil Price And Exchange Rate In Nigeria: Co-Integration And Granger Causality Tests, Bashir Umar Faruk

Bullion

The paper examines the relationship between volatility in domestic oil production, oil prices, and exchange rate in Nigeria. The study employs monthly time series data, from January 2006 to August 2018. Data for the Nigerian Bonny light oil prices (COP), Domestic Oil Production (DOP) and Exchange Rate (EXC) are obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. While, dummy variable (DUM) represents stability and instability in the Niger-Delta oil-rich region was traced from historic oil disruptions in the region. Autoregres s i ve Di s tributed Lag (ARDL)/bound testing method and pairwise granger causality were employed. Unit root test …

Impact Of Monetary Policy On Inflation Rate In Nigeria: Vector Autoregressive Analysis, Eggon Ahmed Henry, Ajidani Moses Sabo

Bullion

The Nigerian monetary authorities have implemented several monetary management policies with the aim of achieving price stability and economic growth in the country, but without success. This study was conducted to examine the impact of monetary policy management on inflation in Nigeria during the 1985- 2019. Autoregressive distributed lag analysis was employed on time series data covering the period. It was found that while monetary policy rate and foreign exchange rate impacted negatively on inflation; broad money supply impact positively on it. Therefore, the study recommended that monetary authorities should fix the exchange rate at where the value of Naira …

Effect Of Monetary Policy On The Nigerian Stock Market: A Smooth Transition Autoregressive Approach, Babaginda Jamilu S., Khan Asad-Ul I.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the nonlinear effect of monetary policy decisions on the performance of the Nigerian Stock Exchange market, by employing the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model on monthly data from 2013 M4 to 2019 M12 for the All Share Index and monetary policy instrument. This study considers the two regimes characterizing the stock market, which are the lower regime (the bear market) and the upper regime (the bull market). The results show evidence of nonlinear effect of monetary policy on the stock exchange market. Monetary policy rate, money supply, lagged monetary policy rate and lagged treasury bill rate are …

Purchasing Power Parity Approach To Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Nakorji Musa, Agboegbulem Ngozi T. I., Gaiya Blessing A., Atoi Ngozi V.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach to the determination of exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria by using two variants of the PPP: the absolute PPP (aPPP) and the relative PPP (rPPP). Data on the Nigerian Naira to US Dollar (N/$), British Pound (N/£) and Chinese Yuan (N/¥) interbank exchange rates, Nigeria consumer price index and Inflation as well as the US, UK and China consumer price indices and inflation rates spanning 2008:M1 to 2018:M12 were utilized. A recently modified fractional cointegration framework was employed, taking care of smooth structural breaks and nonlinearity, while the unit root tests …

Money And Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics In Nigeria: A Multivariate Garch Approach, Atoi Ngozi V., Nwambeke Chinedu G.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the money market and foreign exchange market dynamics in Nigeria by estimating the dynamic correlation and volatility spillovers between the Nigeria Naira/US Dollar Bureau De Change (BDC) exchange rate and interbank call rate with data from January 2007 to August 2019. The study employs a dynamic conditional correlation form of the GARCH model (DCC-GARCH) to assess the nature of correlation, while an unrestricted bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) form of the multivariate GARCH model is utilized to investigate shocks and volatility spillover of the rates. The estimated DCC-GARCH (1, 1) reveals that interest rate and exchange rate are …

Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria, 1970-2019, Aluthge Chandana, Jibir Adamu, Abdu Musa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the impact of Nigerian government expenditure (disaggregated into capital and recurrent) on economic growth using time series data for the period 1970-2019. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. To ensure robustness of results, the study accounts for structural breaks in the unit root test and the co-integration analysis. The key findings of the study are that capital expenditure has positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run while recurrent expenditure does not have significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. The study …

The Impact Of External Debt On Agricultural Production In Nigeria (1980-2016): Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling, Aishatu U. Yerima, Hussaini M. Tahir

Bullion

The study analyzed the impact of external debt on Nigeria's agricultural production from 1980 to 2016 using secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). Augmented DickeyFuller unit root test and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration were utilized, to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical results revealed that the variables were cointegrated, indicating that they exhibited long run relationship, both in the short and the long run. External debt stock (EDS) had a significant positive impact on agricultural production (AGP), indicating that EDS positively impacted …

Essays In Macroeconomics Of Emerging Markets, Miguel Acosta Henao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1. Law enforcement and the size of the informal sector.

I assemble new cross-country evidence showing that contrary to the standard view, the relationship between the size of the informal sector and tax rates is, at best, ambiguous. Law enforcement and informality also show no clear relation. Motivated by these findings, I augment a standard two-sector (formal and informal) small open economy model with endogenous law enforcement that depends on the size of the informal sector (measured by its assets) and government expenditure. I use a micro-dataset from Colombia to show that both taxes and law enforcement are necessary …

Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics in finance and macroeconomics.

Chapter 1 - Do Credit Booms Predict U.S. Recessions?

This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting U.S. recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from six to nine months. Second, by isolating the effect of credit booms, I identify their contributions to recession probabilities which range between three and four percentage points at a …

Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman

Publications and Research

COVID-19 sent shockwaves throughout the economy, changing the amounts of goods and services distributed and altering the demand. This article discusses the negative demand shock and adverse supply shock that the U.S. economy faced in 2020, and the policies that the government implemented to reverse these effects.

Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Quantitative Easing: An Svar Approach, Seth T. Walker

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

The 2008 recession affected the American economy more than any recession since the Great Depression. Unlike its response to the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve aimed to stimulate the economy through all means in its power. However, the Federal Reserve’s conventional monetary policy tools were not viable options due to the zero lower bound. As a result, the Federal Reserve pursued an unconventional monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing which involved purchases of long-term assets on a scale never before seen in the United States. Since its inception, quantitative easing has faced significant scrutiny over its merit and has …

The Effects Of South Africa's Unexpected Monetary Policy Shocks In The Common Monetary Area, Bonang N. Seoela

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

The Common Monetary Area (CMA) is a multilateral agreement that provides a framework for a fixed exchange rate regime between the South-African Rand and the currencies of Lesotho, Eswatini, and Namibia (LEN). The nature of the arrangement restrains the LEN countries from exercising independent discretionary monetary policy. As a result, they must rely on the South African authorities for policy formulation and implementation. Interest rates in the LEN countries cannot deviate too far from those in South Africa. Given this limited scope for monetary policy in the LEN countries, this study investigates how each member country adjusts to shocks to …