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Macroeconomics

Bard College

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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

Unraveling The Enigma Of Japan’S Lost Decades: An Econometrics Study Using Var Model, Mingche Sun Jan 2023

Unraveling The Enigma Of Japan’S Lost Decades: An Econometrics Study Using Var Model, Mingche Sun

Senior Projects Spring 2023

This paper investigates the driving factors of Japan’s stagnation for over 20 years. Through reading various studies and reports, the main factors considered in this econometric study are the government policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, demographic change, and the international competition. These are represented by government spending, interest rates, age dependency ratio, and net export, respectively. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model is used in two separate periods. The findings show that for the first period (1991-2000), the age dependency ratio, net exports and interest rate slowed down the economy; however, for the second period, the net exports became the …

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Does Financial Liberalization Increase Corruption?: Evidence From A Panel Analysis, Pranjal Sudhir Ghate Jan 2018

Does Financial Liberalization Increase Corruption?: Evidence From A Panel Analysis, Pranjal Sudhir Ghate

Senior Projects Spring 2018

This project investigates whether financial liberalization increases corruption on a global level. Arguments put forward by international institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF claim that financial globalization will reduce corruption. However, the experience of India suggests that opening up financial markets might have increased corruption. This project tests whether this experience is generalizable worldwide. I find evidence for the conjecture that financial liberalization increased corruption in a panel analysis using random effects and lagged independent variable.

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Modernization Losers, Political Winners: Assessing The Role Of The Declining Position Of Labor In Right-Wing Electoral Successes Across Western Europe, Eva-Marie C. Quinones Jan 2017

Modernization Losers, Political Winners: Assessing The Role Of The Declining Position Of Labor In Right-Wing Electoral Successes Across Western Europe, Eva-Marie C. Quinones

Senior Projects Spring 2017

This Senior Project advances the modernization losers thesis, wherein the electoral successes of the far right in Western Europe are attributable to neoliberal fiscal policy, labor market shifts, and the institutional structure of the euro. Building on an existing body of literature that primarily assesses voting behavior through survey research, this paper assesses the relationship between right-wing electoral successes and the socioeconomic status of semi-skilled, blue-collar laborers thought to comprise the core voting base of extreme right parties, by using panel data at the national and provincial levels to answer the question, “To what extent has the declining position of …

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The Political Economy Of State-Level Emergency Unemployment Relief: The Case Of The New York Tera, 1931-37, Hasani J. Gunn Jan 2017

The Political Economy Of State-Level Emergency Unemployment Relief: The Case Of The New York Tera, 1931-37, Hasani J. Gunn

Senior Projects Fall 2017

Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt created The New York State Temporary Emergency Relief Administration (TERA) in response to the Great Depression. Operating from 1931-37, this state-level jobs-and-income style policy featured comprehensive in-kind assistance, “home relief,” and emergency unemployment relief, “work relief.” Though the program is fascinating just in this respect, it has been systematically overshadowed by the alphabet soup of New Deal era relief policies. We revisit the TERA to shed light on what it offered to the people of NY and, overall, what it offered to the economy. We find significant evidence that the program stabilized the State economy by …

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The Macroeconomics Of The Declining U.S. Labor Share: A Debt-Led Explanation, Alex Jianan Xu Jan 2015

The Macroeconomics Of The Declining U.S. Labor Share: A Debt-Led Explanation, Alex Jianan Xu

Senior Projects Spring 2015

This paper aims to answer two major conundrums in macroeconomic theory with regards to the U.S. economy. First, standard macroeconomic models such as Harrod-Domar and Solow theoryze that factor shares are constant; however, actual measures of the U.S. labor share have been on a downward trend since the early 1980s. The second conundrum relates to the Post-Kaleckian wage-led or profit-led view of economic growth. It indicates that a fall in the labor share in a wage-led economy will result in a fall in aggregate demand (due to deceases in consumption), and an increase in aggregate demand in a profit-led economy …

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Southeast Asia's International Production Networks: Implications For Macroeconomic Stability, Abigail Eliana Zwick Jan 2013

Southeast Asia's International Production Networks: Implications For Macroeconomic Stability, Abigail Eliana Zwick

Senior Projects Spring 2013

Using the case of five Southeast Asian countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines - this paper examines the relationship between participation in international production networks and the volatility of export values in small, open developing economies. The region’s growth has been driven by the electronics and automotive industries over the past two decades, industries that rely on a system of intra-regional intermediate goods trade. While these countries diversified out of the agricultural industries in part to reduce volatility, there is evidence that they face new volatility risks in the new industries, as a result of dependence on …

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The Financial Instability Hypothesis, Disaggregated Finance And The Structure Of Econometric Models, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D., Laurence H. Meyer Ph.D. Dec 1972

The Financial Instability Hypothesis, Disaggregated Finance And The Structure Of Econometric Models, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D., Laurence H. Meyer Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Paper presented at the Econometric Society, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, December 28, 1972.

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