Econometrics Commons^™

The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks on a small economy using the GARCH-SVAR model. We enrich the SVAR model by using time-varying International and domestic volatilities as endogenous variables. The results show that although monetary policy shocks have transient effect on real economy (neutrality of money) the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks on real part of the economy is permanent and significant. Findings of variance decomposition also show that New Zealand heavily depends on international trade, so international monetary shocks can have a permanent impact on the local …

External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In an article published in 1955, Murray Kemp analyzed the case for interference with the competitive allocation of resources when external economies of production are present. In the specific model we are interested in—where the costs of any one producer's operations are affected by the total output of all producers of the same product—Kemp attempted to show that where entry into the industry is closed (although the industry is otherwise perfectly competitive), "there can always be found a subsidy, either on the product or on a particular factor, which will be a sufficient incentive to firms to produce an optimal …

The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study the quarterly data from 1996:1-2011:2 have been used to investigate the effect of financial crisis on potential output in Iran. For this purpose potential output, natural unemployment rate, spread between short-run and long-run interest rate and real money supply variables are used to estimate Auto Regressive Model and analyze Impulse-Response function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that financial crisis has a negative impact on potential output in Iran. Also, monetary shocks have negative impact on potential output in Iran. As regards, monetary policy has no effect on actual output in long-run, it seems that monetary policies …

The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In the past six decades a lot of research has been carried out to find the effect of monetary policy on real economy. But in the most of these articles, the effect of the volatility of monetary policy has been ignored. This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks using the GARCH-VAR model. We enrich the VAR model by adding time-varying volatility as endogenous variables. We consider three different types of shocks: internal (domestic), regional and global. For our empirical evidence we use quarterly data of Australia and New Zealand from 1988:1 to …

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

Financialization Of The Commodities Futures Markets And Its Effects On Prices, Manisha Pradhananga

Doctoral Dissertations

After declining for almost three decades, the food price index of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) rose by 90 percent between January 2002 and June 2008. Besides the magnitude, the rise in prices was remarkable for its breadth, affecting a broad range of commodities including agricultural (wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, coffee), energy (crude oil, gasoline), and metals (copper, aluminum). According to the US Department of Agriculture, this price spike was responsible for increasing the number of malnourished people by 80 million. These dramatic developments in prices coincided with a rapid inflow of investment into the commodities futures market -- …

Three Essays On The Economics Of Defense Contracting, Output And Income Inequality, Edward M. Decambra

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations.

The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, …

An Economic Analysis Of Housing Market Instability And Affordability In China, You Wang

Undergraduate Economic Review

Applying an intertemporal optimization model proposed by Aizenman and Marion (1991), this research quantifies instability in the Chinese housing market. Although the Chinese government established numerous real estate policies to ensure the stability of the housing market, the regression analyses indicate that housing policies had no significant impact on the stabilization of the Chinese housing market. Alternatively, macroeconomic factors are identified as significant explanatory variables to the instability of housing prices. In addition, this research computes the median multiple for major cities in China and provides an alternative means of investigating the abnormal housing price situation in China.

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: An Empirical Analysis In Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Mohamed Hassan, Lobna M. Abdel-Latif

Business Administration

This paper examines the effect of the developments introduced since 2003 in Egypt on the nature of interaction of monetary and fiscal policies and the achievement of macroeconomic objectives. Utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, the dynamic interaction of policies and their effects on macroeconomic aggregates are investigated. The findings support the success of the developments in eliminating the fiscal dominance. However, coordination between policies is still weak to achieve the macroeconomic stabilization objectives. The results also prove the conventional Keynesian effect of fiscal policy on real GDP. However, the fiscal multiplier is very small. Likewise, expansionary monetary policy …

Curriculum Vitae, Ronald R. Kumar

Ronald R Kumar

My updated CV

A Piece Of The Puzzle: Can Behavioral Insights Help Understand Currency Returns?, Samuel D. Russell

Senior Theses and Projects

This paper finds further evidence using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression to support claims against the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) ex post, referred to as the Forward Discount Anomaly (Fama, 1984). This anomaly suggests predictable profits simply from investing in a country with a higher interest rate. Potential explanations could be attributed to risk or deviations from the rational expectations hypothesis. UIP ex ante is tested using survey data. These results indicate a time-­‐ varying risk premium. Further it is found that this premium is related to the gap between the exchange rate and Purchasing-­‐Power-­‐Parity value. Additionally it is determined …

Monetary Integration And Optimum Currency Area In Asean+3: What We Need For A New Framework?, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Azali Mohammed Prof.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this paper at first we investigate the viability of creating an optimum currency area (OCA) in the East Asia. The results of a ten-variable VAR model show that forming an OCA for all of the countries in the region is costly and difficult to sustain. But at first five countries called Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippine with symmetric supply shocks can create the OCA. The findings also show that both dollar and yen can be suitable anchor for these countries, but with the exception of Indonesia all other countries are better potential clients of dollar. The final …

That Is The Story Of A Hurricane: Within Country Impacts Of Extreme Weather Events, Martino Pelli, Jeanne Tschopp

Martino Pelli

In this paper, we consider the within-country, across-product impacts of hurricanes on export growth. While hurricanes are thought to exert large costs in terms of development on countries who bare the brunt of such events, there is little consensus on the literature to back up these claims. We argue that one reason for this is that the existing literature fails to take into account the potential for hurricanes to have differential impacts across products (or industries). We show that one important source of heterogeneity is a country’s comparative advantage and demonstrate, using a triple-difference identification strategy, that product lines with …

Food Imports Under Foreign Exchange Constraints In The Cfa’S Franc Zone Of Sub-Saharan Africa (Ssa), Seydina Ousmane Sene

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

To respond to the high imported food prices in their domestic markets, net food importing countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine (CFA) zone^[1] are adjusting their import tariffs and homologate domestic prices of imported commodities such as rice, wheat, maize, and sugar. This research uses a multivariate specification of error correction model (VECM) of estimation to investigate the link between food imports, world price index of rice, wheat, maize and sugar, real effective exchange rates, domestic food production, GDP, and trade openness in the short and long run. The data are on each homogenous commodity from 1969 to 2012. …

Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of national debt, …

The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive relationships with …

Banking And Stock Markets In Iran: Are They Complements Or Substitutes, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Elaheh Ghyasi, Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study, the quarterly data from 1991:4 to 2011:3 have been used to investigate the effect of the relation between banking sector and stock market on economic growth in Iran. The break point obtained by Gregory and Hansen(1996) appears in the first quarter of 2005, which coincides with the period of the remarkable increase in oil and gas revenues. The results of Johansen test shows that higher export income in Iran decreases the substitution of banking and stock market. On the other hand, the relation between turnover and real output decreases after the break point. In addition, the relation …