Econometrics Commons^™

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The aim of this report is to highlight a broad spectrum of issues that brings about the measurement of the disagreement and the uncertainity and the formation of inflation expectations among economic agents in Singapore.

Monetary And Fiscal Policies: Ordinary Recessions And Financial Crises, Svetoslav I. Semov

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper uses two different samples to study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the profiles of recessions and recoveries. Several results emerge from the econometric analysis presented. First, monetary policy during ordinary recessions and banking crises is a powerful tool with lasting effects that extend to recovery growth rates. However, the effect of monetary policy during financial crises is strongly diminished in the case of forbearance – banks left to function despite being technically insolvent. Second, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is reversed – it is a powerful tool during banking crises, but it does not seem …

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of …

Cps, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Wage Equivalents (WEQ) and Sectoral Account Inquiries, by A. Shaikh (2010, August 24). Personal communication.
• Income and Outlays of Households and of Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households, by C. I. Mead, C. P. McCully, and M. B. Reinsdorf (2003, April). Survey of Current Business, 83(4), 13–17. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts, by N. Mayerhauser and M. Reinsdorf (2007, September 11). Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Measurement of Gross Operating Surplus (GOS), by A. Shaikh (2009). Unpublished manuscript.
• Gross Operating Surplus, Imputed Interest, and Measures of Profitability, by …

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …

The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch

CMC Senior Theses

Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …

Estimating A Small-Scale Macroeconometric Model (Ssmm) For Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Approach, Charlse N.O Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper attempts to develop a small scale macroeconometric model for the Nigerian economy using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methodology. Particular attention is paid to using impulse responses to explain the dynamic properties of the model. This model incorporates expectation as an anchor in the forward-looking monetary policy objective of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). It captures most of the channels through which policymakers believe monetary policy can influence a small open economy with a managed floating exchange rate. The model was taken to the data by means of Bayesian estimation with the following major findings. First, although …

Energy And Economic Growth: A State-Level Analysis, Nathanael D. Peach

Faculty Publications - College of Business

No abstract provided.

How Does Income Inequality Affect The Growth Of U.S. Counties?, Jeremy Roth

Economics Honors Projects

This paper aims to conduct a precise test of the political economy hypothesis linking income inequality and economic growth. By choosing covariates from a detailed county-level dataset and assuming that U.S. counties experience perfect capital mobility, I shut off the four possible channels linking inequality and growth other than political economy. This is a first in an empirical literature that has reported conflicting findings with observations of states and countries. I also present thematic maps to illustrate the cross-county variation in key growth determinants that is masked by state-level studies. My econometric tests find a negative association between the initial …

Macroeconomics Stress Testing On Malaysia Commercial Banks' Credit Portfolios., Foo Chii Shia

Student Works (2010-2019)

In the research paper, quarterly data on Non-performing Loan (NPL) for commercial banks in Malaysia over the time period of quarter 1, 1998 to quarter 4, 2009 together with 5 macroeconomic indicators i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (KLCI), Unemployment rate and House Property Index are collected to form a credit risk model. The estimated model is employed to analyse banking credit risks conditional on current macroeconomic conditions. Stepwise multiple regression method has been used which to select the useful subsets of variables and to evaluate the order of importance of variables. Furthermore, …

I-O Tables Guide, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Ch. 10: Price/value revisions. NA-24-13.

• Add survey from Jefferis (attached).

• Add survey from Jeffries (attached).

• Email from Lefteris to Anwar Shaikh regarding chapter revisions and additional empirical studies. In this message, Lefteris notes that the attachment contains a summary of empirical studies from a 2010 paper with Paitaridis and that more recent papers with Theodore are already included in the references.

• Extract from Tsoulfidis and Paitaridis, “On the labor theory of value: Statistical artefacts or regularities?” This excerpt reviews empirical studies of price-value deviations and related debates.

• References for the chapter excerpt. …

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Does Unemployment Decrease Cancer Mortality?, Benjamin Torres Galick

Economics Honors Projects

Recent research indicates that healthier lifestyles during recessions decrease the most common U.S. mortalities, but not cancer. However, they combine specific cancer mortalities with different progressions into one, possibly obscuring cancer’s link to unemployment. This paper estimates a fixed-effects regression model on unemployment and the nine most prevalent cancers between 1988 and 2002 using state-level panel data. Five cancers and total cancer are procyclical, and suggest that unemployment affects both incidence and gestation for some cancers. Consistent with the medical literature, this paper contradicts previous economic research and suggests that behavioral factors significantly impact cancer mortality.

Can Parallel Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?, John F. Roberts

Honors Theses

Commodity price uncertainty imposes large costs on society. On the macro level, it results in sudden and unexpected shifts in current account imbalances and real GDP volatility, while on the micro level, it leads to allocation inefficiencies. Accurate price forecasts have the potential to remove some of this uncertainty and allow for a more efficient distribution of resources, and thus, an increase in social welfare. Despite the obvious gains to be had from accurate commodity price forecasts, few models have been able to deliver these results. Chen, Rogoff and Rossi (2008) were the first to find a promising link between …

Do Good Things Come Out After Recessions? The Productivity-Business Cycle Interaction, Michael M. Alba, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

For the past two decades, the Philippines has endured a wave of recessions, events that technically represent fluctuations in economic activity. While some of these recessions have been shallow, resulting in minor deviations from where our economy should be, some have been deep and devastating like the ones that occurred during the last years of the Marcos regime.

A Centered Index Of Spatial Concentration: Axiomatic Approach With An Application To Population And Capital Cities, Filipe R. Campante, Quoc-Anh Do

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct an axiomatic index of spatial concentration around a center or capital point of interest, a concept with wide applicability from urban economics, economic geography and trade, to political economy and industrial organization. We propose basic axioms (decomposability and monotonicity) and refinement axioms (order preservation, convexity, and local monotonicity) for how the index should respond to changes in the underlying distribution. We obtain a unique class of functions satisfying all these properties, defined over any n-dimensional Euclidian space: the sum of a decreasing, isoelastic function of individual distances to the capital point of interest, with specific boundaries for the …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2008., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)'s 2008 report evaluates macroeconomic policies and outcomes, focusing on corporate operations and the economy's performance against domestic and external economic and financial developments. The CBN's monetary policy stance and banking and financial measures were deployed to ensure price stability and financial sector soundness. Despite the global economic downturn, the financial system remained relatively stable and overall macroeconomic performance was satisfactory. The formal financial system at end-December 2008 comprised the CBN, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Insurance Commission, the National Pension Commission, and various banks. The banking sector …

Why Brazil Has Not Grown: A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian, Indian, And Chinese Economic Management, Fernando Ferrari-Filho, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper does not aim to dispute that Brazil would benefit from reforms in any or all of these areas. Rather, the paper offers a skeptical perspective on reform menus and proposes an alternative explanation for the faster growth of Brazil’s peers India and China2. The paper begins by introducing (section 1) the idea of the BRICs countries, to establish the basis for comparisons of most similar cases. It then surveys the results of a generation of Washington Consensus era growth (section 2). Although there is a considerable amount of divergence over what causes growth, it seems that something approaching …

Capital Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Capital stock [Handwritten notes with formulas for gross and net stock]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Tsoulfidis, L. (1999, May 27). Capacity utilization measures [Email to Anwar Shaikh]. Unpublished correspondence.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Capacity utilization [Notes addressed to Anwar Shaikh]. Unpublished manuscript.

• U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1999, May 4). Plant capacity utilization [Data table]. U.S. Department of Commerce.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Depreciation and geometric decay [Handwritten notes with equations]. Unpublished manuscript.

• Wasshausen, D. (2008, January 8). Census book value measures versus BEA measures [Email exchange with Anwar Shaikh]. Unpublished correspondence. …

The Effect Of Devaluation On Output In The Egyptian Economy: A Vector Autoregression Analysis, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Hala El-Ramly

Business Administration

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate changes and output in the Egyptian economy. This is the first such study that we know of for Egypt. Employing a Vector Autoregression model, the paper conducts the study using annual data for Egypt over the period 1982-2004. The results of the study indicate that devaluations have an initial contractionary effect on output in Egypt. This contractionary effect lasts for a period of as long as four years before the expected positive effect of the devaluation starts to materialize. Moreover, the study clarifies that real exchange rate …

Cointegration + Capital Stock, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2003, March; 2004, May 19). Cointegration and capital stock [Handwritten notes].

• Liang, G., & Shaikh, A. (2004, July 7). State space coefficient restrictions in EViews [Email printout].

• Moudud, J. K. (2005, April 4). Microfit 4.0 tutorial lessons [Software tutorial printouts with handwritten annotations].

• Shaikh, A. (2005, April 8). Hicksian adjustment [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2005, May 6). Pesaran bounds testing procedure [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (2008, May 25). Basic model, error correction mechanism, and Cochrane–Orcutt [Handwritten notes].

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Tutorial lessons: Lessons in cointegration analysis [Printouts with …

Some Empirics On Economic Growth Under Heterogeneous Technology, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new econometric approach to testing for economic growth convergence is overviewed. The method is applicable to panel data, involves a simple regression based one-sided t-test, and can be used to form a clustering algorithm to assess the existence of growth convergence clubs. The approach allows for heterogeneous technology, utilizes some new asymptotic theory for nonlinear dynamic factor models, and is easy to implement. Some background growth theory is given which shows the form of augmented Solow regression (ASR) equations in the presence of heterogeneous technology and explains sources of potential misspecification that can arise in conventional formulations of ASR …

An Analysis Of Attendance At Major League Baseball Spring Training Games, Michael R. Donihue, David Findlay, Peter Newberry

Faculty Scholarship

This paper examines the determinants of game-day attendance during Major League Baseball’s 2002 spring training season in Florida. Our model of game-day attendance includes location, quality of game, and time and weather variables. A censored Tobit estimation procedure is used to estimate our model. Our results indicate that the quality of the game, average ticket price, and several location-specific factors affect attendance. Specifically, our results suggest that changes in income have no effect on attendance while increases in ticket prices cause reductions in attendance. Furthermore, the estimated price elasticity of demand for Major League Baseball during the spring training season …

Net Injectors Of Purchasing Power, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Credit and inflation template [Annotated spreadsheet packet compiling IFS banking data, domestic credit, GDP, trade, inflation, unemployment, and related analytical charts]. (2007, December 19).
• International Monetary Fund. (2000). Monetary and financial statistics manual [Annotated excerpt from Chapters VI-VII on money, credit, debt, and the framework for monetary statistics].
• Kucera, J., & Shaikh, A. (2007, December 9-17). Re: IFS categories [Annotated email thread on banking surveys, credit flows, high-powered money, and trade credit].
• Summary of IFS data [Handwritten working notes on banking-survey categories and domestic-credit calculations]. (ca. 2005, December 18).
• International Monetary Fund. (1995). International financial statistics yearbook: …

Inflation, Theory And Data, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Capacity utilization and output gap measures in inflation theory by Anwar Shaikh
• Inflation theory empirical test US by Anwar Shaikh
• Definitions of domestic credit and depository corporations survey by an anonymous interlocutor
• My inflation model by Anwar Shaikh
• Theories of demand-led inflation by Anwar Shaikh
• Credit and GDP patterns by Anwar Shaikh
• Stock-flow accounts and turbulent macrodynamics by Anwar Shaikh

Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data …

Non-Fundamental Expectations And Economic Fluctuations: Evidence From Professional Forecasts, Keen Meng Choy, Kenneth Leong, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

It is theoretically possible that non-fundamental idiosyncratic shocks to agents’ rational expectations are a source of economic fluctuations. Studies using data on consumer and investor sentiment suggest that this is indeed an important source of fluctuations. We present the results of a study that uses forecasts from professional forecasters to extract non-fundamental shocks to expectations. In contrast to previous studies, we show that non-fundamental expectations are not a significant source of output fluctuations, although such shocks contributed to inflation.

Reform In Lieu Of Change: Tastes Great, Less Filling, Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

In this response to Light, Koppell argues that the increasing frequency of reform may reflect Congress's inability to make significant changes to the substance of entrenched government programs. Moreover, he observes that the more profound evolution in government has been the movement toward the market-based provision of services, which has created a demand for new competencies in the public sector.