Econometrics Commons^™

Utilizing Extreme Value Theory To Uncover Yield Distributions From Farm And County Level Historical Corn Yields, Gerald H. Van Tassell

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Yield risk represents a major portion of the financial risk facing corn producers and is found in the left tail of the yield distribution. Traditional methods for generating yield distributions fall into two categories: parametric and non-parametric. The shape and behavior of the tail of parametric yield distributions are determined by distributional assumptions. Non-parametric distributions fail to account for the possibility of as yet unseen extreme events, often referred to as “Black Swans”. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) rectifies these issues by providing an empirical, parametric estimate of the risk of extreme events, regardless of the underlying distribution of corn yields. …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Performance Of Nigerian Stock Market, Shafiu Ibrahim Abdullahi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzes the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of Nigerian stock market. The study uses a number of models that include autoregressive distributed lag, vector auto regression, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Findings show that reported cases of COVID-19 have causal effect on daily returns of the Nigerian stock market. The results also show that Nigerian stocks are good for portfolio diversification. The results of variance decomposition confirm the declining importance of COVID-19 cases and deaths as the pandemic slows down. Further results show that, for the duration of the …

Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Financial Inclusion And Development In Nigeria, Okwanya Innocent, Taiwo A. Olusegun, Aimua E. Peace

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of fiscal policy on financial inclusion and development in Nigeria. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and impulse response function (IRF) to determine the extent and response of financial inclusion and development to fiscal policy changes in Nigeria. The study derives a financial inclusion index from three core indicators: access, usage and quality of financial services, while financial development is measured as the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP). The results show that government expenditure has a significant positive effect on financial inclusion and development, while tax revenue exerts a negative …

Exploring The Relationship Between Load Shedding And Crime In Gauteng, Bhavesh Ram

Master's Theses

This study investigates the impact of load shedding, a recurring power outage phenomenon in South Africa, on crime rates in the densely populated Gauteng province. Using a novel dataset that combines Eskom's load shedding schedules with detailed crime statistics from 2015 to 2022, a fixed-effects regression model is employed to examine the relationship between blackout hours and various crime categories. Findings reveal that while load shedding does not significantly affect overall crime rates, it significantly increases the incidence of contact crimes and sexual offenses, particularly during daylight hours. Additionally, our results provide evidence that load shedding diminishes the ability of …

Specifying And Estimating Vector Autoregressions Using Their Eigensystem Representation, Leo Krippner

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This article introduces the principles and mechanics of the eigensystem vector autoregression (EVAR) framework, where a VAR may be specified and estimated directly via its eigenvalue and eigenvector parameters. Using explicit constraints on the eigensystem permits control of a VAR ís allowable dynamics, which is illustrated empirically with standard and time-varying VAR estimations specified to be always non-explosive.

Jargon To Jackpot: The Financial Impact Of Infusing Pop Culture References In Social Media, Madelynn Solow

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This research explores the impact of incorporating pop culture references in a company's Twitter feed on the company's stock price. Pop culture is integral to people's everyday lives, providing a sense of familiarity and fun between individuals. Many companies have started leveraging pop culture references on social media platforms like Twitter to establish a relatable and engaging connection with diverse consumer demographics. The primary purpose of this research is to investigate whether this strategy is beneficial within the stock market. It is hypothesized that incorporating pop culture references on Twitter can lead to increased sales and higher stock prices, as …

Green Bonds, Green Returns: The Impact Of Green Bond Issuances On Financial Performance In The U.S. Energy Sector, Adora Lei

Honors Theses

This paper investigates the impact of green bond issuances on the financial performance of U.S. energy firms, the largest greenhouse gas-emitting sector. To explore the incentives for adopting green projects among firms with the most significant margin for improvement, I focus on Gross Profit Margin (GPM) and the Tobin’s Q Ratio as key indicators of profitability and valuation. Using a dataset of 462 companies, I analyze green and conventional corporate bond issuances from 2010 onwards in the context of their financial reports. The findings reveal that green bonds positively influence long-term valuation, with Tobin’s Q showing significant increases from the …

The Estimation Of Production Functions With Monetary Values, Jesus Felipe, John Mccombie, Aashish Mehta

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

For decades, the literature on the estimation of production functions has focused on the elimination of endogeneity biases through different estimation procedures to obtain the correct factor elasticities and other relevant parameters. Theoretical discussions of the problem correctly assume that production functions are relationships among physical inputs and output. However, in practice, they are most often estimated using deflated monetary values for output (value added or gross output) and capital. This introduces two additional problems—an errors-invariables problem, and a tendency to recover the factor shares in value added instead of their elasticities. The latter problem derives from the fact that …

Euro-Denominated Credit Liquidity: Tracing Cyclical Phases In Global Finance, Mateusz Mariusz Mierzejewski

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

In the past few years, set against the backdrop of pandemic mitigation efforts and the resultant inflationary spike, the macrofinancial landscape has undergone significant transformation. The tightening of monetary policy by global central banks in response to these phenomena has notably affected global financial liquidity, particularly within the realm of foreign currency lending. This article delves into the shifts in credit liquidity, centering on the Global Liquidity Index for euro-denominated loans across European Union nations over the last two decades. Through the application of the Fourier Transform, we analyse the cyclical patterns within the index and delineate the primary phases …

Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …

Essays On Public Finance And International Finance, Deepti Sikri

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter examines New York State's Fiscal Score Monitoring program to find the effect of two quality labels on school district outcomes: fiscal stress scores, reflecting the budget solvency, and environmental stress labels reflecting economic and demographic conditions. Using the NYS school district data from 2013-22, I employ the regression discontinuity design to find the effect of stress labels, in response to the political pressure on district finances, housing, and school outcomes. I find the effect of fiscal stress label is limited, leading to a decrease in the fund balance ratio and an increase in the tax rate. However, …

Unraveling The Effects Of Transfer Pricing Documentation Regulation: Indonesia’ Evidence, Anggari Dwi Saputra

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

To counter tax avoidance using transfer mispricing practices, Indonesia introduced a transfer pricing documentation policy. This policy requires taxpayers to be transparent with their transfer pricing decisions. Treating the implementation of this policy as a shock to the taxpayers, this paper examines how the transfer pricing documentation policy affects a firm's tax avoidance behaviour by employing regression discontinuity design and difference-in-difference. Immediately after introducing the policy, a regression discontinuity analysis results indicate a 0.9 percentage point increase in tax/sales among taxpayers obligated to prepare transfer pricing documentation. A 0.3 to 0.7 percentage point increase in the tax/sales of the treatment …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …

Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the role of microfinance institutions as a vehicle for driving financial inclusion and alleviating poverty in Nigeria using the EFinA 2018 household survey data. The probit model, propensity score matching, and average treatment effect methods are applied for the analyses. The study finds that financial inclusion driven by access to, and usage of products/services provided by microfinance institutions reduces poverty. The study recommends among others the need for increased access to microfinance products/services and an integrated poverty reduction policies that identifies microfinance institutions as a critical enabler

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …

Estimating And Applying Autoregression Models Via Their Eigensystem Representation, Leo Krippner

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This article introduces the eigensystem autoregression (EAR) framework, which allows an AR model to be specified, estimated, and applied directly in terms of its eigenvalues and eigenvectors. An EAR estimation can therefore impose various constraints on AR dynamics that would not be possible within standard linear estimation. Examples are restricting eigenvalue magnitudes to control the rate of mean reversion, additionally imposing that eigenvalues be real and positive to avoid pronounced oscillatory behavior, and eliminating the possibility of explosive episodes in a time-varying AR. The EAR framework also produces closed-form AR forecasts and associated variances, and forecasts and data may be …

Sharing Economy Last Mile Delivery: Three Essays Addressing Operational Challenges, Customer Expectations, And Supply Uncertainty, Nicolò Masorgo

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Last mile delivery has become a critical competitive dimension facing retail supply chains. At the same time, the emergence of sharing economy platforms has introduced unique operational challenges and benefits that enable and inhibit retailers’ last mile delivery goals. This dissertation investigates key challenges faced by crowdshipping platforms used in last mile delivery related to crowdsourced delivery drivers, driver-customer interaction, and customer expectations. We investigate the research questions of this dissertation through a multi-method design approach, complementing a rich archival dataset comprised of several million orders retrieved from a Fortune 100 retail crowdshipping platform, with scenario-based experiments. Specifically, the first …

The Impact Of Upzoning On Housing Construction In Auckland*, Ryan Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

There is a growing debate about whether upzoning is an effective policy response to housing shortages and unaffordable housing. This paper provides empirical evidence to further inform debate by examining the various impacts of recently implemented zoning reforms on housing construction in Auckland, the largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2016, the city upzoned approximately three quarters of its residential land to facilitate construction of more intensive housing. We use a quasi-experimental approach to analyze the short-run impacts of the reform on construction, allowing for potential shifts in construction from non-upzoned to upzoned areas (displacement effects) that would, if …

Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the exchange rate gap shock–stock market deepening nexus in Nigeria using the structural VAR-X (SVAR-X) technique for the period 1986Q1 to 2018Q4. Findings reveal that exchange rate gap shock has a negative but statistically not significant effect on stock market deepening in Nigeria. It was also found that exchange rate passed–through interest rate from second to thirteen quarter, and further through financial openness whose effect, like exchange rate gap, was negative. This implies that exchange rate gap is significantly and negatively related to interest rate and financial openness in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the monetary …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Disagreement In Market Index Options, Guilherme Salome, George Tauchen, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We generate new evidence on disagreement among traders in the S&P 500 options market from high-frequency intraday price and volume data. Inference on disagreement is based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation; disagreement among investors is captured by the volume–volatility elasticity. For options, there are two natural variables related to disagreement: moneyness and tenor, which we relate to disagreement about the distribution of the market index at different quantiles and times. The estimated volume–volatility elasticity equals unity for options near the money and close to expiration, which is consistent with the …

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Multivariate Econometric Regression Of Factors That Determine Form Of Disposition Of Human Remains Using Archival Death Certificates, Salt Lake County, Utah, Delphine T. Feigenbaum

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This project considers the inescapable and burgeoning issues concerning the long-term allocation of scarce natural resources between the living and the deceased. America’s population growth will demand more space and maintenance resources used for disposition. To meet the forthcoming exigencies, economic planners need to address natural resource availability for future generations while incorporating sustainable and innovative technologies to prohibit environmental injustice.

The goals are to answer the following questions: How do demographical variables, age and sex influence the choice of disposition? How do cause of death variables influence the choice of disposition? I also evaluate the hypothesis that the average …

Economic Impact Assessment Of Nature-Based Coastal Resilience Solutions In Charleston. Estimating Local Economic Effects With Algorithm-Based Supporting Tool., Oksana Veselkova

All Theses

Coastal cities are at the forefront of the risks induced by climate change. Local communities are adversely affected, but the essential cultural assets and economies are also at risk of damage or destruction. In the efforts to limit hazard risk exposure, local governments are increasingly planning for long-term flood protection. One prospective flood risk mitigation measure is living shorelines or nature-based adaptation. The coastal ecosystems, such as beaches, wetlands, barrier islands, oyster reefs, and salt marshes, deliver multiple benefits to communities, including recreation, natural resources, freshwater, and carbon sequestration. Moreover, when combined with structural solutions, they can effectively reduce water …

Diagnosing Housing Fever With An Econometric Thermometer, Shuping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the U.S. housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative “thermometer” for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long-term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a selective …

Assessing The Impact Of Financial Obstacles On Manufacturing Firm's Capacity Utilization: Bayesian Approach, Arab Dahir Hassan, Razim Ozcan

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial obstacles and the capacity utilization of manufacturing firms. This study departs from previous studies in the literature by employing Bayesian linear regression analysis. The results demonstrate that financial constraints have a considerable negative effect on the capacity utilization of manufacturing enterprises, but access to credit lines has a positive effect. The sample consists of 1,494 private manufacturing firms in 31 Europe & Central Asian countries. Financial obstacles were perceived as the major impediment to business operations by 65% of the enterprises in the survey. Furthermore, 52% of enterprises in the sample …

Esg Scores As A Measure Of Risk: The Relationship Between Environmental, Social, And Corporate Governance Ratings And The Financial Performance Of U.S. Oil And Gas Companies, Lauren Kim

Scripps Senior Theses

This study investigates the association between ESG (environmental, social, corporate governance) scores on the financial performance of U.S. oil and gas companies, an industry facing significant ESG-related pressures. ESG scores evaluate a firm’s environmental impacts, social responsibility, and corporate governance practices and can be used as a form of evaluating a firm’s risk mitigation efforts. However, there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that there exists a relationship, positive or negative, between ESG scores and firm performance in this industry. Overall, the findings of this study highlight the growing interest in ESG investing and is useful for investors and firms …