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Articles 211 - 220 of 220

Full-Text Articles in Econometrics

The Rise In House Prices In China: Bubbles Or Fundamentals?, Jianying Hu, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Wanjun Jiang Mar 2006

The Rise In House Prices In China: Bubbles Or Fundamentals?, Jianying Hu, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Wanjun Jiang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The dramatic rise of house prices in many cities of China has brought huge attention from both the governmental and academic circles. There is a huge debate on whether the increasing house prices are driven by market fundamentals or just by speculation. Like Levin and Wright (1997a, 1997b), we decompose house prices in China into fundamental and non−fundamental components. We also consider potential nonlinear feedback from the historical growth rate of house prices on the current house prices and propose a semiparametric approach to estimate the speculative components in the model. We demonstrate that the non−fundamental part contributes a relatively …

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Intraday Stock Prices, Volume, And Duration: A Nonparametric Conditional Density Analysis, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting Jan 2006

Intraday Stock Prices, Volume, And Duration: A Nonparametric Conditional Density Analysis, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the distribution of high-frequency price changes, conditional on trading volume and duration between trades, on four stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The conditional probabilities are estimated nonparametrically using local polynomial regression methods. We find substantial skewness in the distribution of price changes, with the direction of skewness dependent on the sign of trade. We also find that the probability of larger price changes increases with volume, but only for trades that occur with longer durations. The distribution of price changes vary with duration primarily when volume is high.

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Jackknifing Bond Option Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Jun 2005

Jackknifing Bond Option Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Prices of interest rate derivative securities depend crucially on the mean reversion parameters of the underlying diffusions. These parameters are subject to estimation bias when standard methods are used. The estimation bias can be substantial even in very large samples and much more serious than the discretization bias, and it translates into a bias in pricing bond options and other derivative securities that is important in practical work. This article proposes a very general and computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on Quenouille's (1956; Biometrika, 43, 353-360) jackknife. We show how the method can be applied directly …

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Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka Mar 2004

Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose an Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model for the analysis of irregularly spaced transaction data. Based on the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, the ACMD model assigns marks to characterize events such as tick movements and trade directions (buy/sell). Applying the ACMD model to tick movements, we study the influence of trade frequency, direction and size on price dynamics, volatility and the permanent and transitory price impacts of trade. We also apply the ACMD model to analyze trade-direction data and estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN). We find that trade frequency has a critical role in price …

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Competitiveness And Price Convergence On The Internet: Evidence From The Online Dvd Market, Xiaolin Xing, Fang Fang Tang, Zhenlin Yang Jan 2003

Competitiveness And Price Convergence On The Internet: Evidence From The Online Dvd Market, Xiaolin Xing, Fang Fang Tang, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We compare the pricing behavior between online branches of traditional retailers (MCR) and pure Internet retailers (Dotcom) in the DVD market. Based on a set of panel data from July 5, 2000 to June 11, 2001, we find that the average price of the MCRs is about 11.2% higher than that of the Dotcoms. Further statistical analyses on the market dynamics of price trends show that the prices of the Dotcoms went up with time much faster than the prices of the MCRs, which points to a possibility that eventually both types of retailers may charge similar prices on average. …

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A Study On The Behaviour Of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators For Malaysia Prior To The Currency Crisis In 1997, Sena Herath Vijitha Jan 2000

A Study On The Behaviour Of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators For Malaysia Prior To The Currency Crisis In 1997, Sena Herath Vijitha

Student Works (2000-2009)

This paper attempts to develop an early warning system to predict currency crises that will allow managers not to be caught off-guard when a currency crisis hits the country. It is hoped that with an effective early warning system, managers will have adequate time to construct appropriate marketing and business strategies to counter the negative impact of a currency crisis. This research project examines the macroeconomic data generated by Bank Negara and the Ministry of Finance to see if correlations exist between macroeconomic measures and devaluation prospects as cited in the literature and whether these can be used in the …

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The Applicability Of The Dividend-Yield Investment Strategy At The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, Allan, Kim Hon. Ngam Jan 2000

The Applicability Of The Dividend-Yield Investment Strategy At The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, Allan, Kim Hon. Ngam

Student Works (2000-2009)

Many theories, techniques and strategies have been developed over the years on how to outperform the stock market. The objective of this research is to apply the "Dividend-Yield" strategy on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange ("KLSE") to ascertain whether using such a strategy would provide superior investment return. Research findings using this strategy on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") have shown favourable results. The data used in this research were sourced primarily from the KLSE, covering a period of 10 years from 1988 to 1997. This research is based on the premise that the investment universe comprises the component …

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An Examination Of The Relationship Between Stock Index Cash And Futures Markets: A Cointegration Approach, Michael A. Pizzi, Andrew J. Economopoulos, Heather M. O'Neill May 1998

An Examination Of The Relationship Between Stock Index Cash And Futures Markets: A Cointegration Approach, Michael A. Pizzi, Andrew J. Economopoulos, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

The existence of price discovery, market efficiency and market stability associated with spot and futures markets continues as a prominent discussion among academics, practitioners and regulators. Numerous papers examine the role of price discovery in the futures markets for various types of commodities and financial assets. Generally, the studies by Garbade and Silber (1983), Herbst, McCormack and West (1987), Kawaller, Koch and Koch (1987) and Schroeder and Goodwin (1991) indicate that price discovery occurs more significantly in the futures market compared to the cash market.

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Exchange Rate And Income Effects On South Korean Exports: The Us Case, Heather M. O'Neill, William Ross Dec 1991

Exchange Rate And Income Effects On South Korean Exports: The Us Case, Heather M. O'Neill, William Ross

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

This paper analyzes econometrically the effects of direct and cross exchange rates as well as US income and Korean supply developments on the volume of Korean exports to the US. The results suggest that US demand has been the most important factor in the growth of Korean exports to the US in recent years. However, direct exchange rate effects are also important; the estimates suggest that for 1989-90, a yearly 10% real appreciation of the won against the dollar would have lowered export volume by about 10% per year relative to a baseline case. Cross exchange rate effects run counter …

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Polluters’ Profits And Political Response: Direct Control Versus Taxes: Comment, Robert S. Main, Charles W. Baird Dec 1976

Polluters’ Profits And Political Response: Direct Control Versus Taxes: Comment, Robert S. Main, Charles W. Baird

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

In a recent issue of this Review, James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock (B-T) presented a public choice analysis of the relative merits of direct controls and taxes in externality control. In Section IV of their paper, B-T consider the case of reciprocal external diseconomies of consumption. They ask whether "... persons in this sort of interaction, acting through the political processes of the community, will impose on themselves either a penalty tax or direct regulation" (p. 143). Their analysis is carried out within the context of a two-person model in which each person consumes the same quantity of a …

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