Meteorology Commons^™

Umphlett Qci March 2019, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Plains Snowpack

Agriculture

Energy

Transportation

Temperature

Precipitation

Incorporating Uh Occurrence Time To Ensemble-Derived Tornado Probabilities, Burkely T. Gallo, Adam J. Clark, Bryan T. Smith, Richard L. Thompson, Israel Jirak, Scott R. Dembek

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Probabilistic ensemble-derived tornado forecasts generated from convection-allowing models often use hourly maximum updraft helicity (UH) alone or in combination with environmental parameters as a proxy for right-moving (RM) supercells. However, when UH occurrence is a condition for tornado probability generation, false alarm areas can occur from UH swaths associated with nocturnal mesoscale convective systems, which climatologically produce fewer tornadoes than RM supercells. This study incorporates UH timing information with the forecast near-storm significant tornado parameter (STP) to calibrate the forecast tornado probability. To generate the probabilistic forecasts, three sets of observed climatological tornado frequencies given an RM supercell and STP …

Enhancing Acis Maps: Increasing Usability Through A Gis Portal, Natalie Umphlett, Warren Pettee, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

HPRCC Personnel Publications

The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) is one of six NOAA Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) in the United States that aims to provide timely climate data and information to the public for cost-effective decision-making. As part of a three-tiered approach to climate services, the RCCs address needs on the national, regional, state, and local scales for a variety of sectors including agriculture, energy, natural resource management, research, transportation, and water resources. Working together, the RCCs develop and disseminate a wide range of valueadded climate products and services.

One of the HPRCC’s most popular products is the Applied Climate Information …

Drought Scenario-Based Exercises: A Research- And Experience-Based Reference Document, Deborah Bathke, Tonya Haigh, Tonya Bernadt, Nicole Wall

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Contents

Acknowledgements.............................................................................. 1

Contents ................................................................................... 2

1.Introduction......................................................................................4

Objectives .............................................................................................................. 4

Format ................................................................................................................ 5

2. Drought and the Benefits of Preparation .................................................. 6

Drought Basics .................................................. 6

The Effects of Drought ................................................................................. 7

Preparing for Drought ............................................................................................... 9

Scenario Planning and Exercises ................................................................... 10

Influence Of Land Cover And Soil Moisture Based Brown Ocean Effect On An Extreme Rainfall Event From A Louisiana Gulf Coast Tropical System, Udaysankar S. Nair, Eric Rappin, Emily Foshee, Warren Smith, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rezaul Mahmood, Jonathan L. Case, Clay B. Blankenship, Marshall Shepherd, Joseph A. Santanello, Dev Niyogi

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Extreme flooding over southern Louisiana in mid-August of 2016 resulted from an unusual tropical low that formed and intensified over land. We used numerical experiments to highlight the role of the ‘Brown Ocean’ effect (where saturated soils function similar to a warm ocean surface) on intensification and it’s modulation by land cover change. A numerical modeling experiment that successfully captured the flood event (control) was modified to alter moisture availability by converting wetlands to open water, wet croplands, and dry croplands. Storm evolution in the control experiment with wet antecedent soils most resembles tropical lows that form and intensify over …

Conducting A Drought-Specific Thira (Threat And Hazard Identification And Risk Assessment): A Powerful Tool For Integrating All-Hazard Mitigation And Drought Planning Efforts To Increase Drought Mitigation Quality, Elliot Wickham, Deborah J. Bathke, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Tonya K. Bernadt, Denise Bulling, Lisa M. Pytlikzillig, Crystal J. Stiles, Nicole Wall

HPRCC Personnel Publications

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address …

Droughtscape- 2019 Winter, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.............. 2

Drought intensified in California and Nevada, eased elsewhere............. 3

Year in Review: Drought spread and intensified in the West; record precipitation in the East.............. 5

Drought impact summary for 4th quarter 2018........... 6

Drought impact summary 2018............ 8

Five states began drought plan updates in 2018................. 10

New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier............ 12

FEMA risk assessment process tailored for drought............... 14

Upcoming events...............14

The Total Solar Eclipse Of 2017: Meteorological Observations From A Statewide Mesonet And Atmospheric Profiling Systems, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Eric Rappin, Melissa Griffin, Patrick Collins, Kevin Knupp, Andrew Quilligan, Ryan Wade, Kevin Cary, Stuart Foster

HPRCC Personnel Publications

A total solar eclipse traversed 37 the continental United States on August 21, 2017. It 38 was the first such event in 99 years and provided a rare opportunity to observe the atmospheric response from a variety of instrumented observational platforms. This paper discusses the high quality observations collected by the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org), a research-grade meteorological and climatological observation network consisting of 72 stations and measuring air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The network samples the atmosphere, for most variables, every three seconds and then calculates and records observations every five minutes. During …

Irrigation Impacts On Minimum And Maximum Surface Moist Enthalpy In The Central Great Plains Of The Usa, Tianyi Zhang, Rezaul Mahmood, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Agricultural activities notably alter weather and climate including near-surface heat content. However, past research primarily focused on dry bulb temperature without considering the role of water vapor (dew point temperature) on surface air heat content. When using dry bulb temperature trends to assess these changes, for example, not including concurrent trends in absolute humidity can lead to errors in the actual rate of warming or cooling. Here we examined minimum and maximum surface moist enthalpy, which can be expressed as “equivalent temperature.” Using hourly climate data in the Central Great Plains (Nebraska and Kansas) from 1990 to 2014, the averages …

Role Of Sea Surface Temperatures In Forcing Circulation Anomalies Driving U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Elinor R. Martin, Xiangming Xiao

HPRCC Personnel Publications

In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study usesERAtwentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2018, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Water Resources and Drought

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Quantification Of Cloud Condensation Nuclei Effects On The Microphysical Structure Of Continental Thunderstorms Using Polarimetric Radar Observations, Kun-Yuan Lee

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are crucial to the microphysical structure of thunderstorms. They can also alter the rate of cloud microphysical processes, the moisture profile and the local temperature as a result of latent heating/cooling in the early stage of thunderstorm development. Continental thunderstorms are characterized by high complexity and are highly influenced by environmental conditions. The purpose of this study is to determine the influences of CCN concentration on the microphysics of continental thunderstorms, using a sample of storms from northwestern Oklahoma. The Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) at Vance Air Force Base (KVNX) was upgraded …

The Nebraska Mesonet: Technical Overview Of An Automated State Weather Network, Martha Shulski, Stonie Cooper, Glen Roebke, Allen L. Dutcher

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The Nebraska Mesonet was established in 1981 as one of the nation’s first automated state weather networks. ‘‘Automated’’ is defined by the nature of the observations being made and recorded by machine, as opposed to observations made and recorded manually. At the time of inception, the five observing locations were geared toward servicing agricultural production applications. The Nebraska Mesonet has grown to 69 stations (as of 2018) and is now a multipurpose environmental observing network under the Nebraska State Climate Office (NSCO). The network is composed of environmental observation stations, sited using best practices for mesoscale and microscale environment situations. …

Droughtscape- 2018 Fall, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.............. 2

Drought greatly improves in Southern Plains and South............. 3

Texas, Missouri, and Colorado logged late-summer impacts.............. 5

Memory, remote sensing and a new research methodology............. 8

Navigating the U.S. Drought Monitor......... 9

Planners discuss the barriers to effective drought mitigation planning............ 12

Exploring climate issues from a county management perspective.............. 13

Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management and Enhancing Resilience in Africa..................... 14

Mena global policy forum looks from data to mitigation............. 15

About us............17

State-by-state drought classification table developed by NDMC graduate student........19

Umphlett Qci Sept 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Droughtscape- 2018 Summer, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.......................... 2

Drought expands and intensifies ............ 3

Dry down fuels fires ..................... 5

Tweeting #drought18.................... 7

MOISST and NSMN..................... 8

Caribbean planning progress .............. 9

Drought observer network study........... 10

MENA teams report progress ............. 12

NDMC global outreach............... 13

Climate hub workshop................ 15

On the horizon ........................... 16

Umphlett Qci June 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Precipitation Anomalies

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes

Honors Theses

Tornadoes are a dangerous threat to public safety. The National Weather Service (NWS), therefore, advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is …

Droughtscape- 2018 Spring, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018......................................... 3

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast .......... 5

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas...................... 7

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa ....................... 8

NDMC on a global playing field................................ 10

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts ......................11

Svoboda named to UN advisory group ......................................... 12

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains ......................... 13

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara .......................... 15

Connecting locally for global change....................................... 16

Primary Atmospheric Drivers Of Pluvial Years In The United States Great Plains, Paul Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Xiangming Xiao

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies …

Evaluation Of Nocturnal Convective Precipitation Over The Great Plains Using Reanalysis Data And A Wrf-Based Regional Climate Model, Xu Deng

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study aims to analyze what processes are mainly responsible for nocturnal convective precipitation during the 1991-2000 period for May-June-July over the Great Plains. Firstly, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis data, the simulations of the diurnal cycles of LLJ and the convective precipitation are examined. Then, the LLJ-related moisture transport is evaluated since the moisture supply is critical for the development of the heavy rainfall. Results show that the WRF model fails to simulate the nocturnal peak rainfall shown in …

Umphlett Qci March 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Enhanced Fire Activity During Winter

Utilities Impacted by Extreme Cold

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Winter Drought Conditions and Outlook

Drought Information Services For U.S. Agriculture, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Enhancing U.S. Drought Monitor Services & Products

The USDM's weekly display of drought conditions is an important drought early-warning tool for agricultural producers and USDA professionals. Stakeholders that now rely on the USDM include:

• National policymakers who use the USDM as a measure for allocation of relief dollars;

• State governments that refer to the USDM to trigger drought response measures;

• Planners and researchers studying the effects of past droughts;

• Media professionals and educators looking for graphic representation of complex climate interactions.

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Droughtscape- Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains......... 2

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country.............. 3

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires.......... 4

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado............ 6

Drought and water crisis book updated............... 8

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish........... 9

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs............... 10

New staff at the NDMC............. 11

Drought Summit in photos.............. 12

2018 Ndmc Annual, Mark Svoboda, Kelly Smith, Deborah Bathke, Brian Fuchs, Cody L. Knutson, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Contents
01 From the director
02 Drought preparation toolkit tested in Nebraska available to all
03 Partnerships produce vulnerability assessments for tribes
04 Drought Monitor maps & stats localized for NWS offices
05 Producer workshops focus on latest drought management tools
06 2018 by the numbers
08 Where we were in 2018
10 New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier
11 Five states began drought plan updates in 2018
12 Project brought drought management, monitoring skills to 4 countries
13 2018 Publication highlights
16 Collaboration
17 Team and partnerships

Impact Of Past Experiences With Tornadoes On Future Decisions In Nebraska, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes, Matthew Van Den Broeke

UCARE Research Products

The National Weather Service (NWS) advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is to determine how the number of sources and what …

An Observational And Modeling Study Of Mesoscale Airmasses With High Theta-E, Lawrence Wolfgang Hanft

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Typically, the cool side of an airmass boundary is stable to vertical motions due to its associated negative buoyancy. However, under certain conditions, the air on the cool side of the boundary can undergo a transition wherein it assumes an equivalent potential temperature and surface-based convective available potential energy that is higher than that of the airmass on the warm side of the boundary. The resultant airmass is herein referred to as a mesoscale airmass with high theta-e (MAHTE).

Results are presented from an observational and mesoscale modeling study designed to examine MAHTE characteristics and the processes responsible for MATHE …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2017, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Drought Continues to Cause Impacts

Large Butterfly Migration Across the Plains

High Winds Down Corn Across Nebraska

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Use Of Long Term Weather Data And Spatially Delineated Field Attributes To Predict Water And Energy Conservation From Variable Rate Irrigation, Sahil Sharma

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The declining levels of the Ogallala aquifer calls for more judicious use of water. Studies have shown that VRI has the potential for water savings. But adoption of VRI is still very low. The major reason is lack of information on the returns from the VRI systems and its feasibility in different fields. Also, a quantification of the required reduction in prices of VRI is necessary. So, an economic return analysis of VRI strategies was done to compare it to uniform irrigation management (UIM) using a water balance model based on long term weather data and field properties for a …