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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Verification And Analysis Of Impact-Based Tornado Warnings In The Central Region Of The National Weather Service, Holly B. Obermeier
Verification And Analysis Of Impact-Based Tornado Warnings In The Central Region Of The National Weather Service, Holly B. Obermeier
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research
Tornado warnings are one of the most critical products issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), and favorable verification statistics are desirable. The 2011 NWS statistics for traditional tornado warnings indicate that the probability of detection (POD) is 70%, while the false alarm rate (FAR) is 76%. The recent Joplin, Missouri EF5 tornado event on 22 May 2011, which resulted in massive devastation and loss of life, prompted the NWS to re-evaluate the current tornado warning format. After the Joplin, MO event, the Central Region of the NWS implemented the impact-based tornado warning (IBTW) experiment in 2013. IBTWs consist of …
Verification Of The Cobb Snowfall Forecasting Algorithm, Josh Barnwell
Verification Of The Cobb Snowfall Forecasting Algorithm, Josh Barnwell
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research
Forecasting storm total snow accumulation is one of the most difficult aspects of meteorological forecasting. The forecaster has to interpret three main variables in order to forecast snowfall accurately. These forecasting variables are the duration of the snowfall, the amount of liquid water the storm will produce, and the snow density or snow ratio. With the advancement of computer models in recent history, the need for a quick and easy interpretation of these variables has grown, and to improve on previous forecasting techniques’ disadvantages with including the three snow forecasting variables. The Cobb Method snowfall forecasting algorithm utilizes model data …
Improved Verification And Analysis Of National Weather Service Point Forecast Matrices, Paul Fajman
Improved Verification And Analysis Of National Weather Service Point Forecast Matrices, Paul Fajman
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research
Verification is the process of determining the quality of forecast information. Office and personal forecast verifications are significantly lacking throughout the National Weather Service for many reasons. The primary reasons are that verification is time consuming, tedious, and monotonous. This research attempted to ease that process by creating new computer procedures to automate the verification process. The new procedures were tested using two years of forecasting data from November 2007 to November 2009 from the Omaha/Valley Weather Forecasting Office to serve as a framework for future verifications. Point Forecast Matrices (PFM) produced by the National Weather Service twice daily and …