Meteorology Commons^™

Umphlett Qci Dec 2014, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Agriculture

Horticulture

Recreation and Tourism

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Cloud Impacts On Pavement Temperature And Shortwave Radiation, Curtis L. Walker

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Forecast systems provide decision support for end-users ranging from the solar energy industry to municipalities concerned with road safety. Pavement temperature is an important variable when considering vehicle response to various weather conditions. A complex, yet direct relationship exists between tire and pavement temperatures. Literature has shown that as tire temperature increases, friction decreases which affects vehicle performance. Many forecast systems suffer from inaccurate radiation forecasts resulting in part from the inability to model different types of clouds and their influence on radiation. This research focuses on forecast improvement by determining how cloud type impacts pavement temperature and the amount …

Droughtscape- Fall 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Upcoming events.........................3

Drought & climate summary ........ 4

Drought impacts .........................6

Drought planning in Brazil ........10

Ethiopian workshop ................... 12

Visiting scholar .........................13

Help for South Plains ranchers.........13

Wind River tribal workshop...........14

Inter Tribal Buffalo Council ............ 15

South Dakota ranch workshops............ 16

Spatial And Temporal Characteristics Of Polarimetric Tornadic Debris Signatures, Matthew S. Van Den Broeke, Sabrina T. Jauernic

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

Nonmeteorological scatter, including debris lofted by tornadoes, may be detected using the polarimetric radar variables. For the 17 months from January 2012 to May 2013, radar data were examined for each tornado reported in the domain of an operational polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D). Characteristics of the tornadic debris signature (TDS) were recorded when a signature was present. Approximately 16% of all tornadoes reported in Storm Data were associated with a debris signature, and this proportion is shown to vary regionally. Signatures were more frequently seen with tornadoes that were rated higher on the enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, with …

Umphlett Qci Sept 2014, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

􏰞􏰥􏰬􏰨􏰤􏰵􏰶􏰫Streamflow

Long-term Impacts of Drought

Cool, Wet Summer Benefits

Heavy Precipitation Impacts the Missouri River and its Tributaries

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Effects Of Mid- And Upper-Level Dry Layers On Microphysics Of Simulated Supercell Storms, Matthew S. Van Den Broeke

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

Conceptual differences are presented among supercell storms simulated with midlevel and deep dry layers of varying magnitude. Initial patterns are identified which should be studied more comprehensively using observed or simulated data. These initial results indicate that mixing ratios of small ice particles are most sensitive to the depth of a dry layer rather than to its magnitude, with fewer particles in simulations containing a deep dry layer. Hail from frozen drops may be most abundant when a deep layer is dried, and bursts of hail species reaching low levels may be followed 15–20 min later by an increase in …

Verification And Analysis Of Impact-Based Tornado Warnings In The Central Region Of The National Weather Service, Holly B. Obermeier

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Tornado warnings are one of the most critical products issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), and favorable verification statistics are desirable. The 2011 NWS statistics for traditional tornado warnings indicate that the probability of detection (POD) is 70%, while the false alarm rate (FAR) is 76%. The recent Joplin, Missouri EF5 tornado event on 22 May 2011, which resulted in massive devastation and loss of life, prompted the NWS to re-evaluate the current tornado warning format. After the Joplin, MO event, the Central Region of the NWS implemented the impact-based tornado warning (IBTW) experiment in 2013. IBTWs consist of …

Eastern Us Dryline Climatology And Synoptic-Scale Environment, Rebecca S. Duell

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The dryline is an important focal point for convection initiation, and the subject of many studies. While the most common location for drylines is the southern Great Plains, dryline passages and subsequent severe weather outbreaks have been documented in the Mississippi River Valley and into portions of the southeastern United States. Little is known about these “eastern” drylines or how often they occur, as no climatologies or detailed studies have been published on them. This thesis presents a fifteen-year climatology (1999-2013) of eastern drylines in an effort to identify how often and where they typically occur, and to identify synoptic …

Droughtscape- Summer 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook ........................................ 2

Drought & climate summary ........ 2

Drought impacts .........................4

International drought monitoring and planning ...............................8

Visiting scholars.........................10

North American Drought Monitor Forum ........................................ 11

New primary Dust Bowl source .............. 12

New additions to online webinar archive ....................................... 14

Community Capitals Framework Institute ...................................... 15

Springtime Atmospheric Responses To North Atlantic Sst Anomalies In Idealized Gcm Experiments: Northern Hemisphere Circulation And North American Precipitation, Michael C. Veres

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In this study, a series of experiments using idealized sea surface temperatures (SST), land and orography are performed to examine the interactions between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), continents and major orography. Three sets of experiments are done using an increasingly realistic surface boundary (aqua-planet, land without orography and land with orography) and run using perpetual equinox conditions. For each land surface boundary, the model is forced with a zonally symmetric SST, with additional experiments with an imposed positive or negative SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. The experiments are then compared to determine how these forcings interact and what …

Umphlett Qci June 2014, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

􏰞􏰥􏰬􏰨􏰤􏰮􏱨Streamflow

Drought Impacts to Livestock

Continued Cold Hampers Producers in North

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Droughtscape- Spring 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook ........................................ 2

Drought climate recap ................. 3

Drought impacts .........................4

DroughtAtlas ..............................8

Missouri River Basin pilot ............ 9

NASA Horn of Africa project ............... 10

U2U tools and social science ............. 12

Consulting for Turkey................. 14

Czech drought monitoring ......... 14

Umphlett Qci March 2014, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Tourism and Recreation

Missouri Basin Flood Outlook

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Winter Wind Chill Climatology For The High Plains Region, Holly B. Lussenden, Natalie A. Umphlett, Martha D. Shulski, Daniel Ebert

HPRCC Personnel Publications

During the winter months in the High Plains region of the United States, wind chill temperatures can reach dangerous levels for humans and animals. Knowing the frequency in which extreme wind chill temperatures occur could help forecasters know when to issue wind chill advisories and also the general public understand just how rare, or common, certain wind chill temperatures are. A climatology spanning a 37-year period was created using data from 57 stations in and around the plains portion of the High Plains region from the Integrated Surface Hourly Database at National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). These climatologies were completed …

Droughtscape- Winter 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook & quarterly review .......... 2

Drought in 2013 review................3

Quarterly impacts review ............. 5

Impacts in 2013 review................8

Belmont Forum research...........10

USDM change maps ................. 11

Central Asia drought planning ....... 12

Kansas RC&D planning.............13

Publication compares plans.......13

Drought for planners webinar .... 14

Soil moisture networks .............. 14

KS farm & ranch planning..........15

$500 to develop leadership ....... 15

Kids seek solutions....................16

Plains symposium April 1-4 ....... 17

Investigating The Effect Of The ‘‘Land Between The Lakes’’ On Storm Patterns, Joshua D. Durkee, Ahmed M. Degu, Faisal Hossain, Rezaul Mahmood, Jesse Winchester, Themis Chronis

HPRCC Personnel Publications

The artificially created region around the ‘‘Land between the Lakes’’ (LBL) in Kentucky represents unique land use and land cover (LULC) heterogeneities. Over a distance of 100 km, the LULC comprises artificially created open water bodies (i.e., two parallel large run-on-river dams separated by the LBL), mountainous terrain, forest cover, and extensive agricultural land. Such heterogeneities increase (decrease) moisture supply and sensible heat, resulting in a differential air mass boundary that helps to initiate (inhibit) convection. Hence, the LBL can potentially modify precipitation formation. Historical anecdotes reveal a tendency for storms to dissipate or reintensify near the LBL. The specific …

Climate Masters Of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach For Climate Change Education, Tapan Pathak, Tonya Bernadt, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in their lives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately 500 hours of volunteer work was reported by participants as an outreach for greenhouse gas emission reduction. The program can be easily replicated to other locales with an effective planning and with small leadership team.

A Comparison Of The Mm5 And The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Simulations For Land--Atmosphere Interactions Under Varying Soil Moisture, Astrid Suarez, Rezaul Mamood, Arturo I. Quintanar, Adriana Beltran-Prezekurat, Roger Pielke Sr.

HPRCC Personnel Publications

A comparison between two mesoscale models, Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 4.4 coupled with the Land-Ecosystem--Atmosphere Feedback Model (LEAF2) and Penn State/NCAR’s Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled with NOAH Land Surface Model, was conducted in order to assess the sensitivity of forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) variables to anomalous initial volumetric soil moisture conditions. The experiments were conducted using three synoptic events: June 11, 17 and 22, 2006. For each event, one control run and six additional simulations were completed using RAMS and MM5. In each of the events, initial volumetric soil moisture was increased and decreased …