Meteorology Commons^™

Droughtscape- Fall 2008, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Washington Workshops Scheduled for November

Look for Warm West, Rainy Gulf, Easing Drought

New Drought Monitor Authors Profiled

Drought Impact Awareness Growing: Weather Forecast Offices, Geographers Highlight Issue

NDMC Takes on New Projects

Hundreds+ See NDMC at Ag Trade Show

NDMC Welcomes New Employees

The Near East Drought Planning Manual: Guidelines For Drought Mitigation And Preparedness Planning, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Table of Contents

1. Introduction to Drought Planning.............................................1

1.1 Effects of Drought in the Near East Region........................................................1

1.2 New Emphasis on Proactive Drought Planning .................................................. 3

1.3 Integration of Drought Planning and Sustainable Development ......................... 3

2. Explanation of Drought Concepts..............................................................5

2.1 Definitions ........................................................................................................ 5

2.2 The Nature of Drought ...................................................................................... 7

2.3 The Effects of Drought ...................................................................................... 7

3. HowtoDevelopaDroughtPlan.....................................................................................9

Step 1: Creating Political Momentum and Authority................................................9

Step 2: Coordinating Strategic Drought Planning .................................................. 12

Step 3: Fostering Involvement and Developing Common Understandings .............. 15

Step 4: Investigating Drought Monitoring, Risk, and Management Options............ 16

Step 5: Writing a …

Droughtscape- Summer 2008, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

VegDRI Expands West

Spring Rains Ease Drought But CA Still Dry

Scholar Donates Books

NDMC Welcomes Employees Bathke, Nothwehr

Latest Workshop Info Up

State Lawmakers to Focus on Drought Planning

Decadal Variation -- Clues to Droughts and Floods?

Droughtscape- Spring 2008, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

San Angelo, April 24

Winter Sees Little Change in U.S. Drought

News Stories Reveal Array of Mitigation Strategies

NIDIS Wants You!

Sea Surface Temperatures Can Help Predict Drought

About DroughtScape

Recent Travels

Droughtscape- Winter 2008, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Now Up & On-Line:

Winter 2008 Outlook and Oct.-Dec. ’07 Summary

NDMC Experts Serve as Resource for Media

Drought Hits Ag and Urban Interests in 2007

Climatological Summary of Drought in 2007

NDMC Welcomes Data Miner Bo Zhang

New Grant Awards

Sampling Of Malodorous Compounds In Air Using Stir Bar Sorbtive Extraction, John H. Loughrin, Nanh Lovanh, Arturo I. Quintanar, Rezaul Mahmood

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Twisters, (poly)‐dimethylsiloxane‐coated magnetic stir bars, were used to measure compounds typical of swine manure malodor in air. In initial experiments, a time to achieve equilibrium was determined by preloading the stir bars with ten compounds with a range of volatilities and polarities and then monitoring their loss. The rate of loss was dependent on compound volatility, and the time for equilibrium to be attained varied widely, from 22 min for phenol to 210 min for skatole. To test whether the Twisters would respond linearly over a range of concentrations, the stir bars were placed in vented jars with solutions of …

Diagnosis Of The July 6, 2002 Ogallala, Nebraska Flash Flood, David B. Radell, Mark R. Anderson, John W. Stoppkotte, James R. Mccormick

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

During the early morning hours of 6 July 2002, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) traversed southwestern Nebraska and produced more than 40 cm of precipitation, resulting in a flash flood that closed Interstate 80 and caused one fatality near Ogallala, Nebraska. Regional climatology yields that this flash flood ranked first in precipitation amount for a 24 hour period over the past one hundred years. Synoptic and mesoscale features similar to other flash flooding events and conducive to extremely heavy precipitation were in place over the Central Plains, including a weak upper level ridge, high precipitable water values (180% of normal), …

Drought Scape- Fall 2007, The National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Fall 2007 Outlook

Diverse Impacts Reported in Summer of 2007

Decadal Climate Cycles Hold Predictive Potential

Drought Experts Take Roadmap to Congress

NDMC Research Updates

Droughtscape- Summer 2007, The National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Summer 07 Outlook

Hayes Named Director of NDMC

NDMC & UN Plan for Drought

Book Review: The Worst Hard Time

Drought Tools Workshops Underway

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum October 10-11, 2007 Portland, Oregon

Droughtscape- Spring 2007, The National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

2007 Spring Drought Outlook & Winter Summary

VegDRI Expands to 15 States, Refines Views

DroughtScape

State Spotlight: Utah

International Panel Foresees Drought as Part of Climate Change

NIDIS Portal Advancing

Agricultural Climatology, Kenneth G. Hubbard

HPRCC Personnel Publications

With the diversification of the U.S. economy over the past century, agriculture has changed. We can say the farm sizes have increased over time, the number of farmers and those employed in farming have decreased over time, and as the economy has grown the relative contribution of agriculture to the total economy has decreased due to growth in other sectors. The farm prices have not changed significantly over many years while costs for energy, machinery, and land have generally increased. The combination of these factors has generally narrowed the profit margin and the highest productivity will no longer ensure the …

Droughtscape- Winter 2007, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

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Policy Update: NIDIS is Law. What’s Next?

What Would You Like to See?

TX, OK, Plains, Southwest Hardest Hit in 2006

Climatologically Speaking, How Bad Was It?

State Spotlight: Arizona

Drought Decision-Support Tools Evolving

A Recommendation For An Enhanced Fujita Scale (Ef-Scale)

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Background

National Weather Service (NWS) personnel who are responsible for rating tornadoes have expressed frustrations in applying the Fujita Scale in a consistent and accurate manner. Weak links in a structural system or a slow-moving storm sometimes lead to an overrating of a tornado event. Several technical articles suggest that wind speeds associated with some descriptions of damage are too high. For example, a 260 mph wind speed is not required to completely destroy a well constructed house and blow away the debris. The damage occurs at significantly lower wind speeds. Minor et al. (1977) and Phan and Simiu (2003) …

An Analysis Of Simulated Long-Term Soil Moisture Data For Three Land Uses Under Contrasting Hydroclimatic Conditions In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mamood, Kenneth G. Hubbard

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in land surface and atmosphere interactions. It modifies energy balance near the surface and the rate of water cycling between land and atmosphere. The lack of observed SM data prohibits understanding of SM variations at climate scales under varying land uses. However, with simulation models it is possible to develop a long-term SM dataset and study these issues. In this paper a water balance model is used to provide a quantitative assessment of SM climatologies for three land uses, namely, irrigated corn, rain-fed corn, and grass, grown under three hydroclimatic regimes in Nebraska. …

Land Use Change And Modification Of Near-Surface Thermal Records In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mahmood, Ken Hubbard, Christy Carlson

HPRCC Personnel Publications

The North American Great Plains have experienced a rapid overturning of natural grasslands to agricultural land use over the last century. Moreover, in some areas more than 80% of the land use has changed from dry land to irrigated agriculture during the second half of the twentieth century. It is speculated that these changes have modified near-surface atmospheric condition and our modeling study seems to support this. To identify changes in land surface- atmospheric modifications we have applied a soil moistureenergy balance model at three locations in Nebraska: Mead, York, and McCook. The model was applied for three land uses …

Estimating The Probability Of Severe Convective Storms: A Local Perspective For The Central And Northern Plains, Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Summary and Conclusions

A procedure to estimate probabilities of the occurrence of severe convective storms within local areas has been described. Probabilities were based on a simulated climatology and the relative frequency of severe convective events when a selected site was contained within an operational Outlook or Watch. Combined data from five local areas were used to develop a general model for local probabilities within the central and northern Plains region. Attachment of probabilities to specific products placed values within a framework familiar to both forecasters and "end-users." Application of results in an operational scenario demonstrated representative local probabilities and …

J. P. Finley: The First Severe Storms Forecaster, Joseph G. Galway

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

During the 19th century, while others were debating about the theory and morphology of tornadoes, Finley set out to prove that tornadoes, like other weather phenomena, could be forecast. He developed forecast rules and made experimental forecasts. His forecasting and analysis activities made him the center of controversy during most of his professional life and led to open debate in the literature, but he set precedents in meteorological forecasting that are still valid today. His career as a meteorologist started while he was a private in the United States Army. His interest continued even when he had achieved the rank …

Some Trends In Forecast Skill At The National Severe Storms Forecast Center, Allen Pearson, Steven J. Weiss

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Tornado watch and severe local storm outlook verification statistics reveal the trends in forecast skill at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. The skill level of the outlook has been steadily increasing since 1973. The percentage of watches verifying has been gradually increasing since 1970. While the probability of detection for tornadoes has decreased slightly since 1974, this appears to be highly correlated with the number of outbreak tornadoes reported in a given year. During significant tornado days, a much higher degree of skill is exhibited for both outlooks and watches. Factors influencing the results are discussed, including the impact …

Thunderstorms And Tornadoes Of February 1, 1955, Jean T. Lee

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

The purpose of this paper is to describe and illustrate some of the features that are of particular interest in the forecasting of one of the most death-dealing series of convective storms of the 1950s that occurred during the afternoon and evening of February 1, 1955. This series of severe storms included tornadoes, destructive winds, hail, and heavy rain that first struck near Marianata, Arkansas, then roared through Commerce Landing, Mississippi and northern Mississippi. then moved on to near Huntsville, Alabama.

Includes features at the surface, at 850 mb, 700 mb, and 500 mb, and upper air conditions, along with …