Climate Commons^™

Impact Of Climate Oscillations/Indices On Hydrological Variables In The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer., Meena Raju

Theses and Dissertations

The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer (MRVAA) is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States. The main objectives of this research are to identify long term trends and change points in hydrological variables (streamflow and rainfall), to assess the relationship between hydrological variables, and to evaluate the influence of global climate indices on hydrological variables. Non-parametric tests, MMK and Pettitt’s tests were used to analyze trend and change points. PCC and Streamflow elasticity analysis were used to analyze the relationship between streamflow and rainfall and the sensitivity of streamflow to rainfall changes. PCC and MLR analysis …

Changes In Western U.S. Streamflow Extremes Under Climate Change, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

We are analyzing streamflow extremes in Western U.S. rivers due to climate change. Global warming causes natural disasters to reach extreme points and affects river volumes, snowfall, and precipitation amounts. We analyze the data for 17 stations in the Colorado River Basin, whose rivers provide Southern California’s drinking water supply. Disruptions in streamflow due to climate change affect the region’s water availability and make it difficult to predict future trends. We compared historical streamflow data to eight possible climate scenarios. The different scenarios are Warm Dry, Cool Wet, Average, and Other at emission levels of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. First, …

Droughtscape, Spring 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2022

Commodity Prices, Climate And The High Plains Aquifer, Richard K. Perrin, Lilyan E. Fulginiti, Felipe Silva, Karina A. Schoengold

Cornhusker Economics

Crop prices and energy prices can affect the water level in an aquifer? Absolutely, yes, because over time, they affect the amount withdrawn for irrigation. Our recent research confirms that effect and provides estimates of the size of the effect on the High Plains Aquifer (HPA). The HPA underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the west-central United States (see Figure 1). This region produces more than 9% of US crop sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. These withdrawals for irrigation have contributed to a diminished stock of water in the aquifer that varies considerably across …

A Physically Constrained Wavelet-Aided Statistical Model (Pcwasm) For Multidecadal Groundwater Dynamics Predictions And Climate Change Evaluation, Fatih Gordu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Long-term groundwater management relies on forecasts of decadal or longer groundwater levels driven by nested scales of variability in climate. Discerning the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on groundwater is also critical for establishing predevelopment benchmark groundwater conditions and developing climate change adaptation strategies to reduce risks and increase resiliency. This research demonstrates the development and successful applications of a new methodology to predict and assess multidecadal groundwater dynamics for understanding long-term effects of climate change and groundwater withdrawals.

A Physically Constrained Wavelet-Aided Statistical Model (PCWASM) is first introduced to analyze and predict monthly aquifer levels on multidecadal time scales. The …

The Impacts Of Climate Uncertainty On Streamflow In Andes, Antioquia, Colombia, Kristen R. Roberts

Theses and Dissertations

Natural hazards, such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts impact human systems that rely on predictable patterns in the natural elements with which they interact. Skillful prediction of the impacts of climate change on linked, human-natural systems, like surface water resources, can help ensure physical risks within vulnerable communities are mitigated, resource sustainability is maximized, and intersectoral markets continue to contribute to socioeconomic stability. Due to water resources being a primary conduit through which climate uncertainty impacts people, economies, and ecosystems, its study is worthy of investigation; particularly, where those resources are uncertain and demanded by a variety of competitive …

Droughtscape, Winter 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Winter 2022

Data Analytics For Sustainable Food And Agriculture Systems, Megan Lord Reavis

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The increasing concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is altering the climate, posing a serious threat to global agriculture and food security. Agriculture and food production contribute a quarter of all GHG emissions produced, so there is a critical need to limit emissions in this area while increasing food production to feed the anticipated 10 billion people by 2050. To address the needs of the future, data-driven solutions are needed to guide decision-making and provide support for actionable climate mitigation and survival strategies. Research efforts must be focused on analyzing problems on multiple scales, identifying new ways to …

Spatiotemporal Variations Of Precipitation And Climate-Resilient Structure Design In Virginia, Xiaomin Yang

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

How to consider effects of climate change on the design and management of hydrology related infrastructure is crucial but remains a challenge for sustaining resilient society. To address this challenge, existing hydrologic design procedures may need to be revised and/or redeveloped to take into account the precipitation non-stationarity resulting from climate change. Using the state of Virginia as a testbed and advanced statistical techniques such as nonparametric test, spatial autocorrelation, linear regression, distribution fitting, and spatial interpolation, this dissertation developed an innovative framework to detect the historical spatiotemporal variations of various precipitation characteristics, namely maximum precipitation intensity, precipitation amount, simple …

Assessing The Vegetation Condition Impacts Of The 2011 Drought Across The U.S. Southern Great Plains Using The Vegetation Drought Response Index (Vegdri), Tsegaye Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, Jesslyn F. Brown, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes, Brian Fuchs, Denise Gutzmer

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of recordbreaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the …

Droughtscape, Fall 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2021

Beef Cow Operations During Drought: Dealing With More Than Dry Conditions, Matthew Stockton

Cornhusker Economics

The most recent drought conditions have grown to cover a large portion of the west and the central United States, as shown in Figure 1. Those depending on rain continue to watch and hope that conditions will change, while implementing and considering various strategies to preserve their livelihoods. Those who have been in the business for years have seen other occasions when dry conditions limited forage production and created hardship. Each occurrence has varying outcomes, depending on the many factors faced by individuals. While drought may produce the same dry conditions for many, its effects are individualized. There are as …

A Typology Of Drought Decision Making: Synthesizing Across Cases To Understand Drought Preparedness And Response Actions, Amanda E. Cravens, Jen Henderson, Jack Friedman, Nina Burkardt, Ashley E. Cooper, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jamie Mcenvoy, Stephanie Paladino, Adam K. Wilke, Hailey Wilmer

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is an inescapable reality in many regions, including much of the western United States. With climate change, droughts are predicted to intensify and occur more frequently, making the imperative for drought management even greater. Many diverse actors – including private landowners, business owners, scientists, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and managers and policymakers within tribal, local, state, and federal government agencies – play multiple, often overlapping roles in preparing for and responding to drought. Managing water is, of course, one of the most important roles that humans play in both mitigating and responding to droughts; but, focusing only on “water managers” …

Droughtscape, Summer 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Summer 2021

Development Of A Flash Drought Intensity Index, Jason A. Otkin, Yafang Zhong, Eric D. Hunt, Jordan I. Christian, Jeffrey B. Basara, Hanh Nguyen, Matthew C. Wheeler, Trent W. Ford, Andrew Hoell, Mark Svoboda, Martha C. Anderson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Flash droughts are characterized by a period of rapid intensification over sub-seasonal time scales that culminates in the rapid emergence of new or worsening drought impacts. This study presents a new flash drought intensity index (FDII) that accounts for both the unusually rapid rate of drought intensification and its resultant severity. The FDII framework advances our ability to characterize flash drought because it provides a more complete measure of flash drought intensity than existing classification methods that only consider the rate of intensification. The FDII is computed using two terms measuring the maximum rate of intensification (FD_INT) and average drought …

Water Quality Threats, Perceptions Of Climate Change And Behavioral Responses Among Farmers In The Ethiopian Rift Valley, Tewodros R. Godebo, Marc A. Jeuland, Christopher J. Paul, Dagnachew L. Belachew, Peter G. Mccornick

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This work aims to assess water quality for irrigated agriculture, alongside perceptions and adaptations of farmers to climate change in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). Climate change is expected to cause a rise in temperature and variability in rainfall in the region, reducing surface water availability and raising dependence on groundwater. The study data come from surveys with 147 farmers living in the Ziway–Shala basin and water quality assessments of 162 samples from groundwater wells and surface water. Most groundwater samples were found to be unsuitable for long term agricultural use due to their high salinity and sodium adsorption ratio, …

Multi-Dimensional Drought Assessment In Abbay/Upper Blue Nile Basin: The Importance Of Shared Management And Regional Coordination Efforts For Mitigation, Yared Bayissa, Semu Moges, Assefa Melesse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Anteneh Z. Abiy, Abeyou Worqlul

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is one of the least understood and complex natural hazards often characterized by a significant decrease in water availability for a prolonged period. It can be manifested in one or more forms as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and/or socio-economic drought. The overarching objective of this study is to demonstrate and characterize the different forms of droughts and to assess the multidimensional nature of drought in the Abbay/ Upper Blue Nile River (UBN) basin and its national and regional scale implications. In this study, multiple drought indices derived from in situ and earth observation-based hydro-climatic variables were used. The meteorological drought …

Investigating Water Usage Patterns Tied To California State Water Project, Xiaoqing Wu

Publications and Research

California (USA) is the largest agricultural producer and one of the populous states in the United State. As the population and agriculture grows, water consumption patterns become crucial to keep track of especially surface water. In this research project, we studied possible changes in water consumption patterns in different counties and water rights holders who obtain surface water supply from the State Water Project (SWP) in California. We conducted a time series analysis on the California Monthly Diverted Surface Water dataset through two different time series forecasting models. Our analysis indicates that the total diverted surface water presents a periodic …

Droughtscape, Spring 2021, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2021

Exploring Viirs Continuity With Modis In An Expedited Capability For Monitoring Drought-Related Vegetation Conditions, Trenton D. Benedict, Jesslyn F. Brown, Stephen P. Boyte, Daniel M. Howard, Brian A. Fuchs, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Kirk A. Evenson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vegetation has been effectively monitored using remote sensing time-series vegetation index (VI) data for several decades. Drought monitoring has been a common application with algorithms tuned to capturing anomalous temporal and spatial vegetation patterns. Drought stress models, such as the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), often use VIs like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The EROS expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (eMODIS)-based, 7-day NDVI composites are integral to the VegDRI. As MODIS satellite platforms (Terra and Aqua) approach mission end, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) presents an alternate NDVI source, with daily collection, similar band passes, and …

Exploring Viirs Continuity With Modis In An Expedited Capability For Monitoring Drought-Related Vegetation Conditions, Trenton D. Benedict, Jesslyn F. Brown, Stephen P. Boyte, Daniel M. Howard, Brian A. Fuchs, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Kirk A. Evenson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vegetation has been effectively monitored using remote sensing time-series vegetation index (VI) data for several decades. Drought monitoring has been a common application with algorithms tuned to capturing anomalous temporal and spatial vegetation patterns. Drought stress models, such as the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI), often use VIs like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The EROS expedited Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (eMODIS)-based, 7-day NDVI composites are integral to the VegDRI. As MODIS satellite platforms (Terra and Aqua) approach mission end, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) presents an alternate NDVI source, with daily collection, similar band passes, and …

The Drought Monitor Comes Of Age, Brad Rippey, Brian Fuchs, David Simeral, Deborah J. Bathke, Richard R. Heim Jr., Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The 20th century featured immense scientific discoveries and advances. Astrophysics gained Einstein’s life-altering theory of relativity, opening the door to nuclear weaponry and the mind-bending Big Bang theory. The medical field achieved stunning success in suppressing or vanquishing a host of deadly diseases, including polio and smallpox. And through advances in computing technology, meteorological forecasting moved from back-of-the-envelope calculations to supercomputers. However, drought monitoring fell behind the curve of scientific advancement. Not until 1965, when the United States Department of Commerce published Wayne C. Palmer’s “Research Paper No. 45: Meteorological Drought,” was there even a complex mathematical definition of drought. …

Flash Drought Onset Over The Contiguous United States: Sensitivity Of Inventories And Trends To Quantitative Definitions, Mahmoud Osman, Bejamin F. Zaitchik, Hamada S. Badr, Jordan I. Christian, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The term “flash drought” is frequently invoked to describe droughts that develop rapidly over a relatively short timescale. Despite extensive and growing research on flash drought processes, predictability, and trends, there is still no standard quantitative definition that encompasses all flash drought characteristics and pathways. Instead, diverse definitions have been proposed, supporting wide-ranging studies of flash drought but creating the potential for confusion as to what the term means and how to characterize it. Use of different definitions might also lead to different conclusions regarding flash drought frequency, predictability, and trends under climate change. In this study, we compared five …

Coastal Watershed Monitoring And Management: Geomorphology, Geochemistry, And Hydrologic Modeling Of Los Peñasquitos Creek, Ca, Ravleen Khalsa-Basra

Theses

Rivers in semi-arid climates are directly influenced by local geographic and hydrologic conditions and impacted by modifications to hydrology via urbanization. Changes can influence erosion, morphology, habitat sustainability, and watershed health. In highly urbanized southern California coastal regions, these rare open spaces provide vital ecosystem services. Los Peñasquitos Creek in San Diego County is one such watershed. Using stream surveying and laboratory methods we quantified channel characteristics, grain size distribution, total metal concentration [M], organic carbon (%OC), and phosphate to longitudinally characterize the creek for improved management. Results identified three distinct reaches in the watershed (upper, middle, lower). Downstream, depth …

A Continental-Scale Assessment Of Density, Size, Distribution And Historical Trends Of Farm Dams Using Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Networks, Martino E. Malerba, Nicholas J. Wright, Peter I. Macreadie

Climate Science Research Articles

Farm dams are a ubiquitous limnological feature of agricultural landscapes worldwide. While their primary function is to capture and store water, they also have disproportionally large effects on biodiversity and biogeochemical cycling, with important relevance to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the abundance and distribution of farm dams is unknown in most parts of the world. Therefore, we used artificial intelligence and remote sensing data to address this critical global information gap. Specifically, we trained a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) on high-definition satellite images to detect farm dams and carry out the first continental-scale assessment on density, …

Valuation Of Drought Information: Understanding The Value Of The Us Drought Monitor In Land Management, Tingting Liu, Richard Krop, Tonya Haigh, Kelly Helm Smith, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts affect recreation and tourism, grazing, forests, and timber, and can have important indirect effects for the ecosystems and species that rely on water. Despite its importance, the effect of drought in the land management sector is less understood than in other water-intensive sectors, such as agriculture and public water supplies. This study presents the first-ever estimates of the economic valuation of the information provided by the U.S. Drought Monitor using the avoided cost method. These estimates are based on the time and labor saved by using the U.S. Drought Monitor rather than compiling drought-related information from other sources, or …

Ranchers’ Use Of Drought Contingency Plans In Protective Action Decision Making, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jolene Smyth, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Charles A. Francis, Mark Burbach

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought contingency planning is an increasingly common tool in the ranchers’ climate adaptation toolboxes, but its effect on drought response has not yet been evaluated. We use cognitive models of protective action decision making and planning to explore the effects of having a drought plan on the use of drought early warning information and drought response (and timing). Results of a cross-sectional, probability-based survey of livestock producers affected by a 2016 flash-drought are used to describe the characteristics of operations with drought plans and provide evidence of whether having a plan predicts drought information use and response. While larger operations …

Whose Ground Truth Is It? Harvesting Lessons From Missouri’S 2018 Bumper Crop Of Drought Observations, Kelly Helm Smith, Mark E. Burbach, Michael Hayes, Patrick Guinan, Andrew Tyre, Brian Fuchs, Tonya Haigh, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought-related decision-making and policy should go beyond numeric hydrometeorological data to incorporate information on how drought affects people, livelihoods, and ecosystems. The effects of drought are nested within environmental and human systems, and relevant data may not exist in readily accessible form. For example, drought may reduce forage growth, compounded by both late-season freezes and management decisions. An effort to gather crowdsourced drought observations in Missouri in 2018 yielded a much higher number of observations than did previous related efforts. Here we examine 1) the interests, circumstances, history, and recruitment messaging that coincided to produce a high number of reports …

Tweetdrought: A Deep-Learning Drought Impacts Recognizer Based On Twitter Data, Beichen Zhang, Frank Schilder, Kelly Helm Smith, Michael Hayes, Sherri Harms, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Acquiring a better understanding of drought impacts becomes increasingly vital under a warming climate. Traditional drought indices describe mainly biophysical variables and not impacts on social, economic, and environmental systems. We utilized natural language processing and bidirectional encoder representation from Transformers (BERT) based transfer learning to fine-tune the model on the data from the news-based Drought Impact Report (DIR) and then apply it to recognize seven types of drought impacts based on the filtered Twitter data from the United States. Our model achieved a satisfying macro-F1 score of 0.89 on the DIR test set. The model was then applied to …

Developing A Strategy For The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network, Michael H. Cosh, Todd G. Caldwell, C. Bruce Baker, John D. Bolten, Nathan Edwards, Peter Goble, Heather Hofman, Tyson E. Ochsner, Steven Quiring, Charles Schalk, Marina Skumanich, Mark D. Svoboda, Mary E. Woloszyn

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, affecting a wide variety of climatological, agricultural, and hydrological processes. Determining the current soil moisture status is possible via a variety of methods, including in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Although all of these approaches are rapidly evolving, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to integrate these diverse information sources to develop and disseminate coordinated national soil moisture products that will improve our ability to understand climate variability. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network initiative has developed a national strategy for network coordination with NOAA’s National Integrated Drought …