Climate Commons^™

Reducing Uncertainty In Sea-Level Rise Prediction: A Spatial-Variability-Aware Approach, Subhankar Ghosh, Shuai An, Arun Sharma, Jayant Gupta, Shashi Shekhar, Aneesh Subramanian

I-GUIDE Forum

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal communities and beyond due to climate change's impacts on polar ice sheets and the ocean. This problem is challenging due to spatial variability and unknowns such as possible tipping points (e.g., collapse of Greenland or West Antarctic ice-shelf), climate feedback loops (e.g., clouds, permafrost thawing), future policy decisions, and human actions. Most existing climate modeling approaches use the same set of weights globally, during either regression or …

How Sensitive Are Catchment Runoff Estimates To On-Farm Storages Under Current And Future Climates?, David E. Robertson, Hongxing Zheng, Jorge L. Pena-Arancibia, Francis H S Chiew, Santosh Aryal, Martino E. Malerba, Nicholas J. Wright

Climate Science Research Articles

Storage of water in farm dams is important to support irrigation, stock requirements and domestic uses when reticulated water is unavailable. Farm dams that fill by intercepting landscape runoff change the total volume and seasonality of catchment streamflow, potentially impacting water policy outcomes. While numerous studies have quantified how climate change and farm dams independently change streamflow characteristics, few studies have investigated their interactions. This study investigates the interactions between farm dams and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin of southern and eastern Australia. We use hydrological modelling that explicitly represent farm dams and remotely sensed data describing historical farm …

Portugal To New Mexico: Investigating The Applicability Of Syntropic Agriculture To A Semi-Arid Continental Climate, Arielle Nathan

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Conventional industrial agriculture has numerous detrimental effects on the environment including high carbon emissions, pollution and overconsumption of water, soil degradation, and reduction of biodiversity (FAO, 2018). Large-scale alternatives are needed to combat these negative consequences and provide climate solutions. Syntropic Agriculture is a promising farming alternative especially in arid systems subject to degraded soils and desertification. New Mexico is a semi-arid continental climate in a prolonged period of drought and predicted to experience worsening agricultural conditions due to desertification, wildfire intensification, and exacerbated water scarcity. In an area with similar agricultural challenges, a project in Mértola, Portugal (Terra Sintrópica) …

Assessing The Performance Of Agricultural Systems In The Inland And Coastal Regions Of Northern Portugal Using Indicators: Establishing The Foundation Towards Better Agricultural Practices, Genevieve Gehlken

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of agricultural systems in the distinct coastal and inland regions of Northern Portugal. Employing key indicators, including soil erosion, nitrogen surplus, irrigation practices, Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and crop yield, the analysis reveals statistically significant disparities and unique challenges in each region. The coastal areas, marked by higher agricultural GDP, exhibit distinct economic dependencies on agriculture, while the inland regions face challenges related to water scarcity, soil erosion, and rural isolation. The looming threat of climate change adds complexity to these dynamics, further highlighting the need for region-specific, sustainable agricultural practices. In the …

“Without Water, Nothing”: Examining The Water Saving Practices Of Women In Amman Under Periodic Water Supply, Rory Dixon

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Jordan is among the most water-scarce countries in the world. Consequently, water is only pumped to households once a week and households store water in tanks to last them until the next water day. Women conducting housework do so under conditions of environmental stress that this research calls resource-scarce domestic labor. In this study, I apply an eco-feminist lens to examine the water-saving practices women employ to manage and conserve domestic water supplies. I explore the larger causes of these behaviors including climate change, government management, and regional politics. Resource-scarce domestic labor is not a practice unique to Jordan and …

A Reflection Of Change: Evolutions In International Water Law Principles Through The Lens Of Euphrates-Tigris Dispute, Maeve Sullivan

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

As climate change intensifies, water scarcity will increase. Coupled with a growing global population, water security is a major modern challenge. To bring stability to international watercourses, states must establish effective sharing agreements. On this matter, international water law can help. International water law captures some of the major principles and considerations that states must account for while considering issues related to water security. This paper uses primary interviews and secondary sources to identify some of the major characteristics, features, and developments in international law to develop a conceptual framework for the topic. It then moves into a case study …

How Is Flash Drought Understood?—Experts’ Definitions And Decision-Makers’ Perceptions, Caily Schwartz, Tonya Haigh, Mark D. Svoboda, Madeline Goebel

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Because flash drought is a relatively new phenomenon in drought research, defining the concept is critical for scientists and decision-makers. Having detrimental impacts on many sectors, it is important to have a consistent definition and understanding of flash drought, between experts and stakeholders, to provide early warning to the community. This study focuses on onset and progression of conditions and demonstrates the difference in flash drought identification for 15 events across six quantitative definitions of flash drought that use the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). Five flash drought events have been studied in the literature while 10 additional events have been …

The Patchwork Governance Of Ecologically Available Water: A Case Study In The Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States, Amanda E. Cravens, Julia B. Goolsby, Theresa Jedd, Deborah J. Bathke, Shelley Crausbay, Ashley E. Cooper, Jason Dunham, Tonya Haigh, Kimberly R. Hall, Michael J. Hayes, Jamie Mcevoy, Rebecca L. Nelson, Markéta Poděbradská, Aaron Ramirez, Elliot Wickham, Dionne Zoanni

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Institutional authority and responsibility for allocating water to ecosystems (“ecologically available water” [EAW]) is spread across local, state, and federal agencies, which operate under a range of statutes, mandates, and planning processes. We use a case study of the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin in southwestern Montana, United States, to illustrate this fragmented institutional landscape. Our goals are to (a) describe the patchwork of agencies and institutional actors whose intersecting authorities and actions influence the EAW in the study basin; (b) describe the range of governance mechanisms these agencies use, including laws, policies, administrative programs, and planning processes; and (c) assess …

Droughtscape, Summer 2023, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Summer 2023

Impact Of Land Use/Cover Change And Slope Gradient On Soil Organic Carbon Stock In Anjeni Watershed, Northwest Ethiopia, Bethel Geremew, Tsegaye Tadesse, Bobe Bedadi, Hero T. Gollany, Kindie Tesfaye, Abebe Aschalew

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Today’s agri-food systems face the triple challenge of addressing food security, adapting to climate change, and reducing the climate footprint by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). In agri-food systems, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) could affect soil physicochemical properties, particularly soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. However, the impact varies depending on the physical, social, and economic conditions of a given region or watershed. Given this, a study was conducted to quantify the impact of LULC and slope gradient on SOC stock and C sequestration rate in the Anjeni watershed, which is a highly populated and …

The Last Drought Frontier: Building A Drought Index For The State Of Alaska, Olivia Campbell

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Drought is characterized by periods of below average precipitation. There are five major types of drought recognized in the literature: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, and ecological. A relatively new concept in the drought literature is “snow drought.” A key part of the definition of drought is that it is not always accompanied by extreme heat. This means drought can occur even in cold climates, cold seasons, and higher latitudes and altitudes, like Alaska. Drought is a natural part of climate variability, but Alaska’s climate is changing faster than any other state in the United States. Alaska is no stranger to …

Wishing For Water While Fleeing Their Farms: A Study Of Water Scarcity And Internal Migration In Tunisia, Tyler Rak

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

How does water scarcity and limited water access impact internal migration? I argue that water scarcity and limited access to water is likely to increase internal migration in Tunisia. The mechanism through which I will investigate this relationship is in the agricultural sector. In this research, I found that water scarcity does exist in Tunisia and that scarcity impacts the economy, employment, and perceptions of rural areas in Tunisia. This, in turn, likely contributes to internal migration, although my research could not conclude whether water scarcity acts a causative factor to internal migration. This topic has become more prevalent than …

Droughtscape, Spring 2023, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Spring 2023

A Workshop On Using Nasa Airs Data To Monitor Drought For The U.S. Drought Monitor, Alireza Farahmand,, Sharon Ray, Heidar Thrastarson, Stephen Licata, Stephanie Granger, Brian Fuchs

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent studies indicate that drought indicators based on near-surface air relative humidity (RH), air temperature (T), and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD), derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite can detect the onset of drought earlier than other drought indicators, specifically standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is widely used for drought onset detection. A recent study showed that standardized relative humidity index (SRHI) can detect drought signals earlier than SPI (Farahmand et al. 2015). Relative humidity is a climate variable defined as the ratio of air vapor pressure to saturated vapor pressure. Precipitation and relative …

Trust And Subjective Knowledge Influence Perceived Risk Of Lead Exposure, Madeline Goebel, Chloe B. Wardropper

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Lead exposure is a persistent environmental hazard that poses risks to human health. But motivating protective action is challenging with this low visibility hazard whose health effects are often subtle and chronic. Higher risk perception is generally associated with taking protective measures, so public health efforts prioritize risk messaging. Yet, little is known about perceptions of lead exposure risk among the U.S. public. Using cross-sectional data from a national survey of 1035 U.S. residents, we measured the role of trust in government management of lead and subjective knowledge about lead as predictors of perceived risk of lead exposure, controlling for …

Droughtscape, Winter 2023, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Winter 2023

Trends In Cyanotoxin Production Potential In China Lake: An Edna Analysis Of Microcystis And Dolichospermum And The Environmental Drivers Of Cyanotoxin Production, Gennifer M. Rubin

Honors Theses

Episodes of cyano-harmful algal blooms (cyano-HABs) are hypothesized to be exacerbated by the effects of climate change. However, the dynamics of the interactions between elements of climate change and toxigenic cyanobacteria proliferation are not well defined. China Lake is the drinking water source for 7 municipalities in the Kennebec County and is one of many lakes in central Maine that has been subjected to high levels of cyano-HABs and microcystin toxin contamination in recent years. Monitoring the toxicity of these blooms in relation to various aspects of climate change may lead to identification of the major drivers of microcystin production …

Quantifying The Carbon Stored And Sequestered By The Trees On Pomona College’S Campus, Paola A. Giron-Carson

Scripps Senior Theses

We are experiencing a climate crisis that must be confronted with strategic mitigation. Pomona College contributes to the climate crisis through its emissions for which there is a baseline record. However there is no baseline record of the climate mitigation currently performed by the trees on Pomona’s campus through carbon storage. This study seeks to determine a current baseline quantity of carbon stored and sequestrated by Pomona’s trees as well as possible courses of climate mitigation for Pomona College to take. Initial information gathering was conducted through interviews with several stakeholders. This study was conducted using data collected prior to …

Methane Emissions From Agricultural Ponds Are Underestimated In National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Martino E. Malerba, Tertius De Kluyver, Nicholas J. Wright, Lukas Schuster, Peter I. Macreadie

Climate Science Research Articles

Agricultural ponds have some of the highest methane emissions per area among freshwater systems, and these anthropogenic emissions should be included in national greenhouse gas inventories. Here we deliver a continental-scale assessment of methane emissions from agricultural ponds in the United States and Australia. We source maps of agricultural ponds, compile a meta-analysis for their emissions and use published data to correct for temperature and the relative contributions of two methane fluxes (diffusion and ebullition). In the United States, 2.56 million agricultural ponds cover 420.9 kha and emit about 95.8 kt year−1 of methane. In Australia, 1.76 million agricultural ponds …

Systematic Review Of A Ramsar Wetland And Unesco Biosphere Reserve In A Climate Change Hotspot (Ichkeul Lake, Tunisia), Sabrine Sahbani, Béchir Béjaoui, Sihem Benabdalla, Rachid Toujani, Afef Fathalli, Noureddine Zaaboub, Jalel Aouissi, Zeineb Kassouk, Nabil Hamdi, Nabiha Ben Mbarek, Hechmi Missaoui, Leila Basti, Reginald Blake, Hamidreza Norouzi

Publications and Research

Tunisia's Ichkeul Lake is among the most productive ecosystems in the Mediterranean, with a great regional value thanks to its diversity of habitats. It is an important overwintering area for waterfowl species. It is a RAMSAR wetland, a National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage, and a Biosphere Reserve. This review paper provides a broad overview of the climatic, hydraulic, biogeochemical features, bio-resources, and bio-productivity of the Lake. The interconnectivity between the different environmental components of the lake is presented, highlighting the main characteristics of this vital ecosystem. Its ecosystem consists of a permanent lake bordered by temporary marshes. It is …

Storm Intensity And Forward Speed Controls On Back-Barrier And Shoreface Sediment Dynamics Along The Louisiana Coast, Md Mohiuddin Sakib

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

High energetic storms import sediment to back-barrier bays and marshes and produce a perennial footprint that contributes to the long-term evolution of the inner shelf, bays, and marsh platform. The magnitude of sedimentation in back-barrier bays and marshes varies with storm characteristics (e.g., storm intensity, forward speed, size, and track). However, quantifying the impacts of storm characteristics on the sediment exchange between the inner shelf, bays, and marshes and documenting the resulting net sediment import and export patterns across these interfaces remains largely unexplored. Here we applied a calibrated Delft3D hydrodynamics and sediment transport model to a microtidal bay-marsh complex …

Measuring The Economic Impact Of Recurrent Flooding On Workforce Productivity And Property, Joshua G. Behr, Wie Yusuf, George Mcleod, Sarah Stafford, Derek Loftis, Afi Anuar, Rafael Diaz

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

From the Executive Summary:

This research draws upon expertise across multiple disciplines and fields. Leveraged are natural systems data and social-behavioral data. The high-level objective is to advance our understanding of how very recent recurrent flooding has impacted residents within the City of Portsmouth, and then forecast these impacts under projections of sea level rise. While this research draws upon data for the City of Portsmouth, the findings may be generalized to the broader Hampton Roads region.

Comparing Past And Future Drought And Surplus Periods In The Colorado River Basin, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The Colorado River Basin is crucial to the Western United States, providing water for seven states and Mexico. Historical and future periods of drought and surplus are analyzed in 17 Colorado River stations. Unimpaired streamflow data are evaluated from the U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 from 1950-2099. Future projections are based on eight climate scenarios. Four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5) are observed at Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Furthermore, the ensemble water year means of the four models are analyzed. The durations of drought or surplus, magnitudes, …

Drought‑Stricken U.S. States Have More Comprehensive Water‑Related Hazard Planning, Theresa Jedd, Kelly Smith

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Despite the devastating impacts of droughts, the United States lacks a national drought plan. This leaves states to address droughts in water, hazard, and stand-alone plans which are designed to reduce drought vulnerability and to prepare government, industry, and society to cope with the impacts. Yet, there is limited empirical research that evaluates the comprehensiveness of these plans, specifically in terms of whether they include preparedness and mitigation measures or triggers for action and response. To fill this gap, this study’s first aim was to establish an evaluation framework based on principles from the drought mitigation literature. The study then …

The Sensitivity Of Meteorological Dynamics To The Variability In Catchment Characteristics, Shimelash Molla Kassaye, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew Tegegne, Kindie Engdaw Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Evaluating meteorological dynamics is a challenging task due to the variability in hydroclimatic settings. This study is designed to assess the sensitivity of precipitation and temperature dynamics to catchment variability. The effects of catchment size, land use/cover change, and elevation differences on precipitation and temperature variability were considered to achieve the study objective. The variability in meteorological parameters to the catchment characteristics was determined using the coefficient of variation on the climate data tool (CDT). A land use/cover change and terrain analysis was performed on Google Earth Engine (GEE) and ArcGIS. In addition, a correlation analysis was performed to identify …

Droughtscape, Fall 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Fall 2022

Getting Ahead Of Flash Drought: From Early Warning To Early Action, Jason A. Otkin, Molly Woloszyn, Hailan Wang, Mark D. Svoboda, Marina Skumanich, Roger Pulwarty, Joel Lisonbee, Andrew Hoell, Mike Hobbins, Tonya Haigh, Amanda E. Cravens

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational …

Resistance To Petro-Hegemony: A Three Terrains Of Power Analysis Of The Line 3 Tar Sands Pipeline In Minnesota, Melissa Burrell, Corrie Grosse, Brigid Mark

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

In northern Minnesota, the Line 3 tar sands pipeline crosses Indigenous treaty territory, the Mississippi River, and wild rice lakes. Despite the severity of climate crisis and widespread public opposition, Canadian pipeline company Enbridge succeeded in securing permits for, constructing, and ultimately running oil in the pipeline in fall 2021. How was this possible and how did the climate justice movement try to resist? Drawing on participant observation and interviews in the Stop Line 3 movement, this article employs LeQuesne's (2019) concepts of petro-hegemony and carbon rebellion to explain why Line 3 was approved and to assess water protectors' resistance. …

Droughtscape, Summer 2022, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

DroughtScape, Summer 2022

Developing A Miniature Smart Boat For Marine Research, Michael Isaac Eirinberg

Computer Engineering

This project examines the development of a smart boat which could serve as a possible marine research apparatus. The smart boat consists of a miniature vessel containing a low-cost microcontroller to live stream a camera feed, GPS telemetry, and compass data through its own WiFi access point. The smart boat also has the potential for autonomous navigation. My project captivated the interest of several members of California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo’s (Cal Poly SLO) Marine Science Department faculty, who proposed a variety of fascinating and valuable smart boat applications.