Climate Commons^™

Umphlett Qci March 2015, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Recreation and Tourism

Forestry

Drought Impacts Continue

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Mapping The Decision Points And Climate Information Use Of Agricultural Producers Across The U.S. Corn Belt, Tonya Haigh, Eugene S. Takle, Jeffrey Andresen, Melissa Widhalm, J. Stuart Carlton, Jim Angel

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The usefulness of climate information for agricultural risk management hinges on its availability and relevance to the producer when climate-sensitive decisions are being made. Climate information providers are challenged with the task of balancing forecast availability and lead time with acceptable forecast skill, which requires an improved understanding of the timing of agricultural decision making. Achieving a useful balance may also require an expansion of inquiry to include use of non-forecast climate information (i.e. historical climate information) in agricultural decision making. Decision calendars have proven valuable for identifying opportunities for using different types of climate information. The extent to which …

Estimation Of Daily Air Temperature Based On Modis Land Surface Temperature Products Over The Corn Belt In The Us, Linglin Zeng, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jie Shan, Michael J. Hayes, Deren Li, Daxiang Xiang

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Air temperature (Ta) is a key input in a wide range of agroclimatic applications. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ts (Land Surface Temperature (LST)) products are widely used to estimate daily Ta. However, only daytime LST (Ts-day) or nighttime LST (Ts-night) data have been used to estimate Tmax/Tmin (daily maximum or minimum air temperature), respectively. The relationship between Tmax and Ts-night, and the one between Tmin and Ts-day has not been studied. In this study, both the ability of Ts-night data to estimate Tmax and the ability of Ts-day data to estimate Tmin were tested and studied in the Corn …

Estimation Of Daily Air Temperature Based On Modis Land Surface Temperature Products Over The Corn Belt In The Us, Linglin Zeng, Brian D. Wardlow, Tsegaye Tadesse, Jie Shan, Michael Hayes, Deren Li, Daxiang Xiang

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Air temperature (Ta) is a key input in a wide range of agroclimatic applications. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ts (Land Surface Temperature (LST)) products are widely used to estimate daily Ta. However, only daytime LST (Ts-day) or nighttime LST (Ts-night) data have been used to estimate Tmax/Tmin (daily maximum or minimum air temperature), respectively. The relationship between Tmax and Ts-night, and the one between Tmin and Ts-day has not been studied. In this study, both the ability of Ts-night data to estimate Tmax and the ability of Ts-day data to estimate Tmin were tested and studied in the Corn …

Navigating A Pathway Toward Colorado's Water Future: A Review And Recommendations On Colorado's Draft Water Plan, Lawrence J. Macdonnell, Colorado Water Working Group

Books, Reports, and Studies

40 pages (includes color illustrations).

Drougthscape, Winter 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Central U.S. 2012 report

October-December drought summary

2014 drought summary

Caribbean capacity building

Drought impacts in 2014

California timeline 2014

UC Davis ranching workshop

NASA SMAP data

Global drought info system

Community Capitals

Evaluation and assessment

Indicator-impact research

NDMC on YouTube

From Too Much To Too Little: How The Central U.S. Drought Of 2012 Evolved Out Of One Of The Most Devastating Floods On Record In 2011, Brian Fuchs, Deborah Wood, Dee Ebbeka

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Introduction: Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center

Regional Drought Perspective: Natalie A. Umphlett, High Plains Regional Climate Center, Michael S. Timlin, Midwest Regional Climate Center, Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center

State Drought Perspectives — Colorado: Wendy Ryan and Nolan Doesken, Colorado Climate Center • Illinois: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey • Indiana: Olivia Kellner, Indiana State Climate Office • Iowa: Harry J. Hillaker, Iowa Dept. of Agriculture & Land Stewardship • Kansas: Mary Knapp and Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University • Kentucky: Stu Foster, Kentucky State Climate Office • Michigan: Jeff Andresen and Aaron Pollyea, Michigan State University …

The Gravity Environment Of Zhouqu Debris Flow Of August 2010 And Its Implication For Future Recurrence, Diandong Ren, Lance M. Leslie, Xinyi Shen, Yang Hong, Qingyun Duan, Rezaul Mahmood, Yun Li, Gang Huang, Weidong Guo, Mervyn J. Lynch

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This study investigates the geological background of the August 7-8, 2010 Zhouqu debris flows in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, and possible future occurrence of such hazards in the peri-Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. Debris flows are a more predictable type of landslide because of its strong correlation with extreme precipitation. However, two factors affecting the frequency and magnitude of debris flows: very fine scale precipitation and degree of fracture of bedrock, both defy direct observations. Annual mean Net Primary production (NPP) is used as a surrogate for regional precipitation with patchiness filtered out, and gravity satellite measured regional mass …

Development Of A Long-Term (1884-2006) Serially Complete Dataset Of U.S. Temperatures And Precipitation For Climate Services, Jinshing You, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Martha Shulski, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Serially complete climate datasets with no missing data are necessary for a diverse group of users working in many economic sectors. In this article we describe the procedures used to create a Serially Complete Data set (SCD) for the U.S. We include the selection criterion applied to potential SCD stations, the various procedural steps and the details applied to each step. A few observations that were not previously digitized were obtained from observers official paper reports. The methods used to estimate missing data are the Spatial Regression Test and the Inverse Distance Weighting technique. Using the criterion for selecting stations …

A Historical Perspective On Nebraska’S Variable And Changing Climate, Martha Shulski, William Baule, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Nebraska is situated at the intersection of the northern and southern Great Plains, exhibiting a dramatic longitudinal gradient for precipitation and humidity, and benefiting from groundwater resources. The continental climate is highly variable temporally both for temperature and precipitation. Our assessment of long-term meteorological observations shows that over the last century the annual average temperature in Nebraska has warmed approximately 0.6°C, which is similar to the increase in the global average temperature over the same time period. Furthermore, we found minimum temperatures have warmed more than maximum temperatures, and winter and spring show the strongest warming. We found no significant …

New Atlas Features Corn Belt Farmers' Perspectives On Agriculture And Climate, John Tyndall, J. Gordon Arbuckle, Tonya Haigh, Cody L. Knutson, Lois Wright Morton, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Farmer Perspectives on Agriculture and Weather Variability in the Corn Belt: A Statistical Atlas is a new publication available online at . The atlas includes maps and tables that make it easy for readers to gauge farmer perspectives within the US Corn Belt. Topics covered include farmer beliefs about climate change, attitudes toward actions in response to increased weather variability, risk perceptions, and experiences with weather extremes. This region-specific information on farmers' climate change and risk beliefs is designed to help Extension personnel tailor the climate adaptation and education programming they offer in their region.

The Implications Of Climate Change For Nebraska: Summary Report Of Sector-Based Roundtable Discussions (September-October 2015), Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly Morrow

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Introduction ... iv

Roundtable Reports: Overview ... iv

Rural Nebraskans Poll: Summary of Key Outcomes on Climate Change ... vi

Summary of Roundtable Discussions ... 1

Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems and Wildlife in Nebraska ... 1

Implications of Climate Change on Human Health in Nebraska ... 11

Implications of Climate Change on Nebraska’s Forests and Fire ... 21

Implications of Climate Change on Nebraska’s Agriculture, Food and Water ... 27

Implications of Climate Change on Energy Availability, Use and Management in Nebraska ... 31

Climate Change in Nebraska: What Does it Mean for our Faith Communities? …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2014, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Agriculture

Horticulture

Recreation and Tourism

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Agricultural Advisors As Climate Information Intermediaries: Exploring Differences In Capacity To Communicate Climate, Tonya Haigh, Lois Wright Morton, Maria Carmen Lemos, Cody Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Yun Jia Lo, Jim Angel

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Although agricultural production faces chronic stress associated with extreme precipitation events, high temperatures, drought, and shifts in climate conditions, adoption of climate information into agricultural decision making has been relatively limited. Agricultural advisors have been shown to play important roles as information intermediaries between scientists and farmers, brokering, translating, and adding value to agronomic and economic information of use in agricultural management decision making. Yet little is known about the readiness of different types of agricultural advisors to use weather and climate information to help their clients manage risk under increasing climate uncertainty. More than 1700 agricultural advisors in four …

Droughtscape, Fall 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Upcoming events

Drought and climate summary

Drought impacts

Drought planning in Brazil

Ethiopian workshop

Visiting scholar

Help for South Plains ranchers

Wind River tribal workshop

Inter Tribal Buffalo Council

South Dakota ranch workshops

Umphlett Qci Sept 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

􏰞􏰥􏰬􏰨􏰤􏰵􏰶􏰫Streamflow

Long-term Impacts of Drought

Cool, Wet Summer Benefits

Heavy Precipitation Impacts the Missouri River and its Tributaries

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Crop Advisors As Climate Information Brokers: Building The Capacity Of Us Farmers To Adapt To Climate Change, Maria Carmen Lemos, Yun-Jia Lo, Christine Kirchhoff, Tonya Haigh

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper examines the role of crop advisors as brokers of climate information to support US corn farmers to adapt to climatic change. It uses quantitative data collected from a broad survey of crop advisors in the US Corn Belt to examine the factors that shape advisors’ use of (and willingness to provide) climate information to their clients. Building upon a general model of climate information usability we argue that advisors’ willingness to provide climate advice to farmers is influenced by three main factors: their information seeking habits and behavior, their experience with innovation in the past, and how climate …

Using Temporal Changes In Drought Indices To Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the potential utility of using rapid temporal changes in drought indices to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales is assessed. Standardized change anomalies were computed each week during the 2000–13 growing seasons for drought indices depicting anomalies in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture. A rapid change index (RCI) that encapsulates the accumulated magnitude of rapid changes in the weekly anomalies was computed each week for each drought index, and then a simple statistical method was used to convert the RCI values into drought intensification probabilities depicting the likelihood that …

Droughtscape, Summer 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook

Drought & climate summary

Drought impacts

International drought monitoring and planning

Visiting scholars

North American Drought Monitor Forum

New primary Dust Bowl source

New additions to online webinar archive

Community Capitals Framework Institute

Umphlett Qci June 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

􏰞􏰥􏰬􏰨􏰤􏰮􏱨Streamflow

Drought Impacts to Livestock

Continued Cold Hampers Producers in North

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Water In The 21st Century, Grayson Michael Shor

Social Sciences

The aim of this research project is to provide a comprehensive and global analysis of water use in order to provide the reader with a comprehensive grasp of current and impending issues. The included five (5) chapters discuss water distribution, conservation, purification, law, international development, economic debates, ethical consideration, as well as educated estimations of the effects water related issues may cause in the next one-hundred years.

Water-Use Restriction Information: Information Sharing Between Public Water Systems And State Government Offices, Christopher Carparelli

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In many states there is an absence of communication between the state and local levels about many aspects of water resource management. This research examines the interaction between the state and local levels regarding water-use restrictions for public water systems (PWSs). This information is useful for state-level drought planning and mitigation through the assessment of drought impacts on public water supplies. Officials from five state-level entities that collect and disseminate local water-use restriction information were interviewed over the phone for this research. Each official was asked eleven questions about how and why their state collects and disseminates PWS water-use restriction …

Issue Brief: Asset Management For Stormwater, New England Environmental Finance Center, Sustainable Communities Learning Network

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Asset management is a strategic approach to maintaining and sustaining infrastructure in order to meet the needs of the community at the lowest overall life cycle cost. This approach helps communities know how and where to prioritize limited funds in order to achieve the greatest benefit. Often applied to drinking water and wastewater infrastructure, this method is well suited to managing any assets, including stormwater systems.

This issue brief is intended to introduce local governments to the asset management process and to show how it can be applied in managing stormwater assets. It was adapted from an appendix written by …

Droughtscape, Spring 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook . 2

Drought climate recap 3

Drought impacts .

DroughtAtlas

Missouri River Basin pilot 9

NASA Horn of Africa project 10

U2U tools and social science . 12

Consulting for Turkey 14

Czech drought monitoring 14

Umphlett Qci March 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Tourism and Recreation

Missouri Basin Flood Outlook

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Investigating The Effect Of The ‘‘Land Between The Lakes’’ On Storm Patterns, Joshua D. Durkee, Ahmed M. Degu, Faisal Hossain, Rezaul Mahmood, Jesse Winchester, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The artificially created region around the ‘‘Land between the Lakes’’ (LBL) in Kentucky represents unique land use and land cover (LULC) heterogeneities. Over a distance of 100 km, the LULC comprises artificially created open water bodies (i.e., two parallel large run-on-river dams separated by the LBL), mountainous terrain, forest cover, and extensive agricultural land. Such heterogeneities increase (decrease) moisture supply and sensible heat, resulting in a differential air mass boundary that helps to initiate (inhibit) convection. Hence, the LBL can potentially modify precipitation formation. Historical anecdotes reveal a tendency for storms to dissipate or reintensify near the LBL. The specific …

A Comparison Of The Mm5 And The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Simulations For Land--Atmosphere Interactions Under Varying Soil Moisture, Astrid Suarez, Rezaul Mamood, Arturo I. Quintanar, Adriana Beltran-Prezekurat, Roger Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A comparison between two mesoscale models, Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 4.4 coupled with the Land-Ecosystem--Atmosphere Feedback Model (LEAF2) and Penn State/NCAR’s Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled with NOAH Land Surface Model, was conducted in order to assess the sensitivity of forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) variables to anomalous initial volumetric soil moisture conditions. The experiments were conducted using three synoptic events: June 11, 17 and 22, 2006. For each event, one control run and six additional simulations were completed using RAMS and MM5. In each of the events, initial volumetric soil moisture was increased and decreased …

Winter Wind Chill Climatology For The High Plains Region, Holly B. Lussenden, Natalie A. Umphlett, Martha D. Shulski, Daniel Ebert

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

During the winter months in the High Plains region of the United States, wind chill temperatures can reach dangerous levels for humans and animals. Knowing the frequency in which extreme wind chill temperatures occur could help forecasters know when to issue wind chill advisories and also the general public understand just how rare, or common, certain wind chill temperatures are. A climatology spanning a 37-year period was created using data from 57 stations in and around the plains portion of the High Plains region from the Integrated Surface Hourly Database at National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). These climatologies were completed …

Climate Masters Of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach For Climate Change Education, Tapan Pathak, Tonya Bernadt, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in their lives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately 500 hours of volunteer work was reported by participants as an outreach for greenhouse gas emission reduction. The program can be easily replicated to other locales with an effective planning and with small leadership team.

Droughtscape, Winter 2014, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Outlook & quarterly review . 2

Drought in 2013 review.

Quarterly impacts review . 5

Impacts in 2013 review.

Belmont Forum research0

USDM change maps 11

Central Asia drought planning

Kansas RC&D planning

Publication compares plans

Drought for planners webinar

Soil moisture networks

Kansas farm and ranch planning

$500 to develop leadership

Kids seek solutions

Plains symposium April 1-4