Climate Commons^™

Umphlett Qci Dec 2013, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture

September Flooding in Colorado

Early October Blizzard

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Examining The Relationship Between Drought Development And Rapid Changes In The Evaporative Stress Index, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction …

Droughtscape, Fall 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Kansas community drought planning workshop November 5

Drought impacts webinars

Drought outlook and summary

Late summer drought brings more agricultural impacts

Plans help ranchers weather drought

NDMC contributions to U2U project

Drought Management Database archives strategies

QuickDRI will help spot flash droughts

NDMC Co-Hosts NASA workshop

Wilhite leads Integrated Drought Management Program work

Speaking of drought

Managing #Drought tweet chat transcript

Updated USDM website

Issue Brief: Saving By Mitigating, University Of Louisville, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Natural disasters can cause loss of life, inflict damage to buildings and infrastructure, and have devastating consequences for a community’s economic, social, and environmental well-being. Hazard mitigation means reducing damages from disasters.

Local governments have the responsibility to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their citizens. Proactive mitigation policies and actions help reduce risk and create safer, more disaster-resilient communities. Mitigation is an investment in your community’s future safety, equity, and sustainability.

Climate Change On The Prairie: A Basic Guide To Climate Change In The High Plains Region - Update, Lincoln, Ne

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Global Climate Change

Climate Change in the United States

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

High Plains Region Update: 2010-2012

New Tool: Climate Impact Reporter

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Droughtscape, Summer 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

July 25 webinar: Drought management database, NIDIS update

Republican River Basin workshops July 31, August 1

Summer climate outlook, spring summary

Spring impacts: wildfire, water, agriculture and business

Data help managers assess Nebraska groundwater declines after drought of 2012

Tadesse helps Mexico with Veg-DRI concept

Visiting scholar explores remote sensing of drought in forests

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum photo recap, details online

Workshop helps New Mexico ranchers cope with drought

Alabama’s new drought plan

National Drought Forum report

Drought Impacts Community of Practice report

Slides: What Does Climate Change Mean For Cold Water Fisheries, Stan Bradshaw

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

1 page "Abstract" and 8 slides

Slides: Is There A Dust Bowl In Our Future?: Projections For The Eastern Rockies And Central Great Plains, Dennis Ojima

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Dennis Ojima, Senior Research Scientist, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University (NREL/CSU)

30 slides

Slides: Future Water Availability In The West: Will There Be Enough?, Michael Dettinger

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Michael Dettinger, USGS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA

30 slides

"with contributions from Julio Betancourt, Dan Cayan, & others"

Slides: A History Of Climate Variability And Change In The American West, Kelly T. Redmond

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Kelly T. Redmond, Regional Climatologist, Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), Desert Research Institute

65 slides

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding International Cooperation For The Development Of A Framework For Monitoring And Forecasting, Will Pozzi, Justin Sheffield, Robert Stefanski, Douglas Cripe, Roger Pulwarty, Jürgen V. Vogt, Richard R. Heim Jr., Michael J. Brewer, Mark Svoboda, Rogier Westerhoff, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes, Florian Pappenberger, Micha Werner, Emanuel Dutra, Fredrik Wetterhall, Wolfgang Wagner, Siegfried Schubert, Kingtse Mo, Margaret Nicholson, Lynette Bettio, Liliana Nunez, Rens Van Beek, Marc Bierkens, Luis Gustavo Goncalves De Goncalves, João Gerd Zell De Mattos, Richard Lawford

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The need for a global drought early warning framework. Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10%–13% over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer …

The Missing Piece: Drought Impacts Monitoring Report From A Workshop In Tucson, Az March 5-6, 2013, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Brennan, Daniel Ferguson, Mike Crimmins, Lisa Darby, Kirstin Dow, Keith Ingram, Alison Meadow, Henry Reges, Mark Shafer, Kelly Helm Smith

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Based on a shared interest to better understand the impacts of drought and the potential utility of using drought impacts reporting as a tool for monitoring conditions, researchers from the Carolinas RISA (Dow, Lackstrom, and Brennan), the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (Crimmins and Ferguson), and the Southwest Climate Science Center (Meadow) decided to convene a workshop in Tucson in March 2013. The primary goal was to assemble a small group of university and agency scientists involved with drought impacts monitoring to discuss opportunities and barriers associated with drought impacts reporting, recommend best practices for implementing a drought impacts reporting …

The Evaluation Of Water Storage In Death Valley Using Grace Satellite Data, Maile Sweigart

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

As drought conditions spread across the United States, concerns over water supplies, water use, and water management policies are growing and possible contributing environmental factors are continually being scrutinized. This thesis examines Death Valley as an analog for Southern Nevada and utilizes NASA EOS data, combined with ancillary climate data, to assess the effect of decadal climate variability on groundwater storage in the Death Valley area. Historical climate data, combined with satellite imagery observations, were compiled and calculated for analyses. Conclusions derived from statistical analyses infer trends between GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data and fluctuating levels of …

Soil Moisture Recognition And The Spatial Distribution Of Storm Activity In The Mojave Desert Using High-Resolution Aster And Modis Imagery For Thermophysical Mapping, Russell J. Skuse

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Climate models suggest that the Mojave Desert ecoregion is vulnerable to becoming drier in the future, and as the human population grows and development increases, environmental stresses will likely increase. Determining the spatial distribution and variation of soil moisture on a regional scale is an essential component to climate change, hydrologic, and habitat analyses. Soil permeability and sediment stability are characteristics that have been shown to be measurable from remote sensing observations. The primary objective of this project is to map the mechanical composition of the surface materials in the Mojave Desert ecoregion with implications for soil permeability, sediment stability, …

Century Wide Hydrologic Trends And Shifts In Colorado River Basin, Soumya Sagarika, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

College of Engineering: Graduate Celebration Programs

To evaluate the long-term trends and step (abrupt change) changes in three hydrologic variables: temperature, precipitation, and streamflow over a century wide time frame in Colorado River Basin.

Examining Rapid Onset Drought Development Using The Thermal Infrared–Based Evaporative Stress Index, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Reliable indicators of rapid drought onset can help to improve the effectiveness of drought early warning systems. In this study, the evaporative stress index (ESI), which uses remotely sensed thermal infrared imagery to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), is compared to drought classifications in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and standard precipitation-based drought indicators for several cases of rapid drought development that have occurred across the United States in recent years. Analysis of meteorological time series from the North American Regional Reanalysis indicates that these events are typically characterized by warm air temperature and low cloud cover anomalies, often with high winds …

Droughtscape, Spring 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter climate summary and outlook

Impacts: Crop indemnities set records in 2012; water conflicts escalating

International meeting recommends countries have drought policies

NDMC plays key role in international drought policy meeting

EDEN and VOAD guide helps build community drought capacity

Svoboda, other experts and policymakers focus on food and water security

New Mexico ranching workshop set for May 29 in Socorro

Ranch planning updates: archived webinars, new publications

Tune in to the US Drought Monitor Forum, April 16-18

Archived webinar looks at using drought simulations in planning

CoCoRaHS WxTalk on drought

An Intercomparison Of Drought Indicators Based On Thermal Remote Sensing And Nldas-2 Simulations With U.S. Drought Monitor Classifications, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jason Otkin, Xiwu Zhan, Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, Agustin Pimstein

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Comparison of multiple hydrologic indicators, derived from independent data sources and modeling approaches, may improve confidence in signals of emerging drought, particularly during periods of rapid onset. This paper compares the evaporative stress index (ESI)—a diagnostic fast-response indicator describing evapotranspiration (ET) deficits derived within a thermal remote sensing energy balance framework—with prognostic estimates of soil moisture (SM), ET, and runoff anomalies generated with the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Widely used empirical indices based on thermal remote sensing [vegetation health index (VHI)] and precipitation percentiles [standardized precipitation index (SPI)] were also included to assess relative performance. Spatial and …

Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions From A Waste Lagoon, Arturo I. Quintanar, Rezaul Mamood, Nanh Lovanh, Justin M. Rawley, Evi Becerra-Acosta, John H. Loughrin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

A cost-effective approach was used to investigate the relationship between emission of the greenhouse gases (GHG), namely, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O and energy fluxes from a swine waste lagoon. Energy fluxes were calculated using the Penman method. The energy fluxes showed a diurnal pattern as expected of such fluxes. We found that air temperature and latent energy, lagoon surface temperature and solar radiation, as well as air temperature and wind speed can be used to predict for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions, respectively. Comparison of observed and predicted …

Regional Climate Trends And Scenarios For The U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate Of The U.S. Great Plains, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Laura E. Stevens, Scott E. Stevens, Liqiang Sun, Emily Janssen, Donald Wuebbles, Michael C. Kruk, Devin Thomas, Martha Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Kevin Robbins, Luigi Romolo, Adnan Akyuz, Tapan B. Pathak, Tony R. Bergantino, J. Greg Dobson

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This document is one of series of regional climate descriptions designed to provide input that can be used in the development of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate scenario needs become clear. It is also hoped that these documents (and associated data and resources) are of direct benefit to decision makers and communities seeking to use this information in developing adaptation plans.

There are nine reports in this series, one each for eight …

Droughtscape, Winter 2013, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Climatological overview of drought in 2012

Climatological overview of drought, October-December 2012

Impacts of drought in 2012

Drought planning webinars scheduled for ranch advisors

UNL honors NDMC for exceptional service

Report from the emerging community of drought planners

Feb. 6 webinar on drought simulations

Climate Masters course starting

Climate Change in the Midwest book includes drought

Video highlights from coverage of drought of 2012

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum 2013

UN’s High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy

NDMC collaboration with India, Czech Republic

Impact Of Climate Change On Human And Ecological Use Of Karst Groundwater Resources: A Case Study From The Southwestern Usa, George Veni

National Cave and Karst Management Symposium 2013

Climate change models for the arid southwestern USA predict increasing temperatures and declines in precipitation. These changes will have multiple adverse impacts on water and ecological resources and pose diverse challenges on their management. The San Solomon Spring system of west Texas discharges from the western edge of the karstic Edward-Trinity Plateau Aquifer. It consists of six springs in Jeff Davis and Reeves counties, is one of the largest spring groups in the state, and provides water for agricultural use and habitat to two federally listed endangered species and three species proposed for listing. It serves in this paper as …

Climate Change: What Does It Mean For Nebraska?, Martha D. Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Tapan B. Pathak, Kenneth G. Hubbard

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Because Nebraska’s location on the North American continent is far removed from large bodies of water, Nebraskans experience a strong continental type climate. As such, residents do not benefit from the moderating influence of the ocean, and temperatures can have wide swings from day to day and season to season. Typical characteristics for a continental climate at this latitude are large temperature variability with warm summers dominated by convective thunderstorms, and cold winters influenced by snow and wind from mid-latitude cyclones.

Carbon Farming In Wa, Department Of Agriculture And Food, Western Australia, Department Of Regional Development And Lands, Western Australia

Natural resources published reports

Fact sheets:

1. Applying biochar to improve soil quality and crop productivity

2. Reducing methane emissions from cattle using feed additives

3. Cattle breeding for lower greenhouse gas emissions

4. Managing genetic codes to reduce methane emissions from cattle

5. Managing pastures and stocking rate to reduce methane emissions from cattle

6. Claying as a method of increasing soil carbon content

7. Green and brown manuring as part of carbon farming

8. Permanent environmental plantings to earn carbon credits

9. Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils

10. Sheep genetics in methane reduction

11. Managing sheep pastures to reduce methane production …

Flexible Urban Water Distribution Systems, Seneshaw Amare Tsegaye

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

With increasing global change pressures such as urbanization and climate change, cities of the future will experience difficulties in efficiently managing scarcer and less reliable water resources. However, projections of future global change pressures are plagued with uncertainties. This increases the difficulty in developing urban water systems that are adaptable to future uncertainty.

A major component of an urban water system is the distribution system, which constitutes approximately 80-85% of the total cost of the water supply system (Swamee and Sharma, 2008). Traditionally, water distribution systems (WDS) are designed using deterministic assumptions of main model input variables such as water …

Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience For Weather And Climate Information?, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Tonya Haigh, Amber Saylor Mase, Jim Angel, Chad Hart, Cody Knutson, Maria Carmen Lemos, Yun Jia Lo, Jean Mcguire, Lois Wright Morton, Jennifer Perron, Dennis Todey, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

As the climate in the midwestern United States becomes increasingly variable because of global climate change, it is critical to provide tools to the agricultural community to ensure adaptability and profitability of agricultural cropping systems. When used by farmers and their advisors, agricultural decision support tools can reduce uncertainty and risks in the planning, operation, and management decisions of the farm enterprise. Agricultural advisors have historically played a key role in providing information and guidance in these decisions. However, little is known about what these advisors know or think about weather and climate information and their willingness to incorporate this …

Climate Change And The Water Crisis In Israel, Lauren Deutsch

Natural Resources Management and Environmental Sciences

Israel’s water crisis is controlled by the availability and location of water resources that are affected by climate change and geopolitics in southwest Asia. Conflict between Israel and the Palestinian occupied territories in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank have put strains on the allocation of water recourses. The goal of this research was to model how much a change in climate will affect the amount of available freshwater in Israel. Intensive research taken from Israel and the occupied territories was carried out to understand how the amount of precipitation, rainfall, and the rate of evaporation is affected by …

Droughtscape, Fall 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

Updated resources

Drought outlook and review

2012 and past droughters

Summer impacts summary

Urban planners and drought

USDM wins CLEAN seal

Meixiu Yu's Chinese SPEI

Ethiopian project

Mexican VegDRI

Drought monitor sculpture

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984–2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Droughtscape, Summer 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report 1

Drought expanse 1

Upcoming ranch workshops. 3

Drought outlook and review 4

Spring impacts summary 6

Hawaii impact workshops 9

Remote sensing of drought. 10

China workshop . 12